2026-08-28 09:00|有色金属事件流(15条)

2026-08-28 09:00|有色金属事件流(15条)

覆盖北京时间2026-08-27 15:00至2026-08-28 09:00,交付15条可核验的SHFE仓单、LME官方价、铜铝铅锌现货/TC与美国宏观事件。

[
  {
    "event_id": "shfe-cn-20260827-warehouse-receipts",
    "title": "SHFE铜铝镍锡仓单下降、锌仓单增加",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T07:06:10Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 99,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "上海期货交易所",
      "report": "2026-08-27仓单日报,2026年第158期、总第4351期",
      "publication_time_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-27 15:06:10北京时间",
      "unit": "吨",
      "copper_total": "32213吨,较上一交易日-2378吨",
      "aluminium_total": "251174吨,较上一交易日-6114吨",
      "zinc_total": "114950吨,较上一交易日+624吨",
      "lead_total": "56991吨,较上一交易日持平",
      "nickel_total": "101144吨,较上一交易日-404吨",
      "tin_total": "5581吨,较上一交易日-224吨",
      "bonded_copper_total": "7496吨,较上一交易日-452吨",
      "alumina_warehouse_total": "248710吨,较上一交易日持平",
      "alumina_factory_total": "9300吨,较上一交易日持平",
      "cast_aluminium_alloy_total": "21648吨,较上一交易日+237吨"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "SHFE铜、铝、镍、锡和保税铜仓单均下降,锌仓单增加624吨、铅与氧化铝持平→多数工业金属可交割库存减少→有色金属短线获得温和库存支撑。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "上海期货交易所更正2026-08-27仓单日报期次、任一品种总量、增减值、单位或文件发布时间。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260827/ZH/all.html?params=1",
      "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260827/EN/all.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-wuxi-20260827-aluminium-basis",
    "title": "无锡铝锭均价涨50至23920元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T07:09:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T07:09:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "Mysteel",
      "detail_id": "844A45A581C768D4",
      "data_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 15:09",
      "market": "无锡",
      "product": "A00铝锭",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "spot_price_range": "23900—23940元/吨",
      "spot_average": "23920元/吨,较上一交易日+50元/吨",
      "spot_basis": "升水10元/吨",
      "market_note": "持货商挺价并放缓出货,下游按需采购"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "无锡A00铝锭均价上涨50元/吨至23920元/吨,现货报价升水10元/吨→流通货源预期收紧支撑持货商报价→铝价短线获得现货支撑。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正无锡A00铝锭价格区间、均价、日变动、升贴水、数据日期或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082715/844A45A581C768D4.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-foshan-20260827-aluminium-basis",
    "title": "佛山铝锭均价涨10至24140元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T07:12:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T07:12:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "Mysteel",
      "detail_id": "19D402D1D4E22899",
      "data_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 15:12",
      "market": "佛山",
      "product": "A00铝锭",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "spot_average": "24140元/吨,较前一日+10元/吨",
      "current_month_ticket_basis": "早间升水10元/吨,后期下调至平水",
      "next_month_ticket_basis": "贴水30元/吨"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "佛山A00铝锭均价上涨10元/吨至24140元/吨,但当月票升水回落至平水、次月票贴水扩大至30元/吨→绝对价格小幅走高而票据基差转弱→铝价短线信号中性。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正佛山A00铝锭均价、日变动、当月票或次月票升贴水、数据日期或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082715/19D402D1D4E22899.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-shandong-20260827-copper-basis",
    "title": "山东电解铜现货升水报170元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T07:53:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T07:53:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "SMM",
      "detail_id": "104083419",
      "data_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 15:53",
      "market": "山东",
      "product": "电解铜",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "spot_basis": "升水170元/吨",
      "verification_scope": "公开详情标题可核验升水绝对值;公开正文未给区间和变动"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "SMM披露山东电解铜现货报价升水170元/吨→区域货源偏紧支撑持货商报价→铜价短线获得区域基差支撑。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "SMM更正山东电解铜升水绝对值、数据日期、产品口径或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104083419"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260827-lead-concentrate-tc",
    "title": "进口铅精矿TC持平于负175至负160美元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T09:26:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T09:26:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "Mysteel",
      "detail_id": "1D81B5EFDD398F92",
      "data_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 17:26",
      "product": "铅精矿加工费TC",
      "imported_tc_unit": "美元/干吨",
      "imported_tc_range": "-175至-160美元/干吨,较上一日持平",
      "imported_lead_concentrate_price_change": "较上一日-20元/金属吨",
      "domestic_examples": "内蒙古某铅矿出厂加工费200元/金属吨;云南某铅锭生产企业到厂加工费0元/金属吨",
      "market_note": "低银矿成交偏弱,市场以长单履约为主"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "进口铅精矿TC维持负175至负160美元/干吨,进口矿价格下跌20元/金属吨→原料加工费继续处于负值区间→铅价中短期获得原料端支撑。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正进口铅精矿TC区间、日变动、进口矿价格变动、国内样本加工费、计价口径或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082717/1D81B5EFDD398F92.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-shanghai-20260827-copper-close-basis",
    "title": "上海铜尾盘升水最高500元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T09:28:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T09:28:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "Mysteel",
      "detail_id": "EF48074D18FB4915",
      "data_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 17:28",
      "market": "上海",
      "product": "电解铜",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "low_grade_brand_basis": "紫金、金冠等高报至升水400元/吨附近",
      "standard_quality_basis": "升水420—430元/吨",
      "high_quality_basis": "升水480—500元/吨",
      "basis_comparison_note": "正文未明确标注比较的沪铜合约",
      "market_note": "当月票货源流通紧张,持货商挺价惜售,部分企业补票"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "上海电解铜尾盘主流平水铜升水420—430元/吨,好铜升水480—500元/吨→月末当月票货源偏少推动持货商挺价→铜价短线获得现货支撑。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正上海电解铜各品牌升水区间、票据口径、数据日期或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082717/EF48074D18FB4915.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-henan-20260827-lead-basis",
    "title": "河南铅锭对2610合约贴水50至100元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T09:40:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T09:40:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "Mysteel",
      "detail_id": "43A0B05B3910D4E4",
      "data_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 17:40",
      "market": "河南",
      "product": "1#铅锭",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "mysteel_average": "15925元/吨,较上一交易日持平",
      "basis_to_2610": "贴水50—100元/吨",
      "other_quotes": "湖南炼企含税15950—16000元/吨出厂;江西炼企16030元/吨出厂;安徽炼企16080元/吨",
      "market_note": "现货市场散单成交有限"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "Mysteel 1#铅锭均价持平于15925元/吨,河南现货对沪铅2610合约贴水50—100元/吨→现货相对期货仍偏弱且散单成交有限→铅价短线信号中性。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正1#铅锭均价、河南对2610合约贴水区间、地区报价、数据日期或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082717/43A0B05B3910D4E4.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260827-zinc-concentrate-tc",
    "title": "进口锌精矿TC持平于负120至负100美元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T10:11:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T10:11:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "Mysteel",
      "detail_id": "C090A454BB783AC7",
      "data_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 18:11",
      "product": "锌精矿加工费TC",
      "imported_tc_unit": "美元/干吨",
      "imported_tc_range": "-120至-100美元/干吨,较上一交易日持平",
      "domestic_tc_unit": "元/金属吨",
      "domestic_tc_range": "各地区50品位锌精矿加工费-2200至-1300元/金属吨",
      "domestic_zinc_concentrate_price_change": "+270元/金属吨",
      "imported_zinc_concentrate_price_change": "-220元/金属吨",
      "market_note": "市场关注9月定价,炼厂采购态度分化"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "进口锌精矿TC维持负120至负100美元/干吨,国产锌精矿价格上涨270元/金属吨→国内原料成本上升且进口加工空间仍受压→锌价中短期获得原料端支撑。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正进口或国产锌精矿TC区间、精矿价格变动、品位口径、数据日期或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082718/C090A454BB783AC7.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-shanghai-20260827-copper-weekly-basis",
    "title": "沪铜现货升水周内升至450元",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T10:27:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T10:27:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 2
    },
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "SMM",
      "detail_id": "104083670",
      "data_period": "截至2026-08-27的一周",
      "published_time_beijing": "2026-08-27 18:27",
      "market": "上海及江苏",
      "product": "电解铜",
      "unit": "元/吨、万吨",
      "weekly_open_basis_average": "升水210元/吨",
      "weekly_close_basis_average": "升水450元/吨",
      "shanghai_social_inventory": "7.23万吨,较上周四-1.08万吨",
      "jiangsu_social_inventory": "2.09万吨,较上周四-0.66万吨",
      "combined_inventory_change": "上海与江苏合计-1.74万吨",
      "outlook_basis": "预计下周现货对沪铜2609合约维持升水、高位震荡"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "沪铜现货升水均价从周初210元/吨升至周末450元/吨,上海与江苏社会库存合计减少1.74万吨→库存去化与货源偏紧共同抬升基差→铜价短线获得较强现货支撑。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "SMM更正周初或周末升水、上海或江苏社会库存、周度变动、统计期间、比较合约或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104083670"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "lme-global-20260827-official-prices",
    "title": "LME基本金属现金价多数下跌",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T12:25:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 99,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "伦敦金属交易所",
      "official_price_date": "2026-08-27",
      "publication_time_basis": "LME声明官方价于伦敦时间12:20—13:25发布;本字段采用发布窗口截止时刻",
      "price_unit": "美元/公吨",
      "calculation_note": "变动为本期与2026-08-26两日官方页面买卖中价之差;免费页不显示变动列",
      "aluminium": "现金买/卖3212.00/3212.50,3个月买/卖3215.00/3216.00;现金中价-15.00,3个月中价-23.00",
      "copper": "现金买/卖14488.00/14490.00,3个月买/卖14235.00/14236.00;现金中价-35.50,3个月中价-100.00",
      "zinc": "现金买/卖4105.00/4107.00,3个月买/卖3888.00/3890.00;现金中价持平,3个月中价-43.50",
      "nickel": "现金买/卖16655.00/16660.00,3个月买/卖16825.00/16840.00;现金中价-235.00,3个月中价-212.50",
      "lead": "现金买/卖1871.00/1872.00,3个月买/卖1902.00/1903.00;现金中价+6.50,3个月中价-3.50",
      "tin": "现金买/卖54940.00/54950.00,3个月买/卖55190.00/55195.00;现金中价-330.00,3个月中价-282.50"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "LME铝、铜、镍、锡现金中价下跌,锌持平、铅上涨6.50美元/吨,六种金属3个月中价均下降→伦敦基本金属当日定价整体走弱→SSE.512400相关外盘映射信号偏空。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "LME更正2026-08-27任一基本金属现金或3个月官方买卖价、前值、有效日期或计价单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices",
      "https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/publication-schedule"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "dol-us-20260827-initial-claims",
    "title": "美国初请失业金人数降至20.3万",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T12:30:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T12:30:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 99,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "美国劳工部就业与培训管理局",
      "release_date": "2026-08-27",
      "published_time_eastern": "2026-08-27 08:30 EDT",
      "initial_claims_week_ended": "2026-08-22",
      "seasonally_adjusted_initial_claims": "203000人,较修正前值207000人减少4000人",
      "prior_initial_claims_revision": "由206000人上修至207000人",
      "four_week_moving_average": "205500人,较修正前值204250人增加1250人",
      "insured_unemployment_week_ended": "2026-08-15",
      "seasonally_adjusted_insured_unemployment": "1778000人,较修正前值1796000人减少18000人",
      "insured_unemployment_rate": "1.2%,与前值持平"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "美国初请失业金人数降至20.3万,持续申领人数降至177.8万→劳动力市场保持韧性,市场对宽松政策的预期边际受压→美元与利率渠道对有色金属短线偏空。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "美国劳工部更正初请、前值修订、四周均值、持续申领人数、投保失业率、统计周或季调口径。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "bls-us-20260827-employment-projections",
    "title": "BLS预计2025—2035年就业增长3.5%",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T14:00:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T14:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 98,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "美国劳工统计局",
      "release_id": "USDL-26-1422",
      "published_time_eastern": "2026-08-27 10:00 EDT",
      "projection_period": "2025—2035",
      "total_employment": "由1.703亿人增至1.762亿人",
      "total_employment_change": "+590万人",
      "total_employment_growth_rate": "+3.5%",
      "utilities_growth": "+9.8%,新增58800人",
      "private_healthcare_and_social_assistance_growth": "+9.5%,新增220万人,占全部新增岗位37.0%",
      "professional_scientific_and_technical_services_growth": "+8.6%,新增926700人",
      "other_electrical_equipment_and_component_manufacturing_growth": "+25.9%,包括储能与电动车电池",
      "computing_infrastructure_data_processing_and_hosting_growth": "+25.1%,新增120400人"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "BLS预计美国2025—2035年公用事业就业增长9.8%,电气设备与零部件制造就业增长25.9%→电力基础设施和电池产业长期扩张预期增强→铜铝等工业金属的长期需求预期偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "BLS修订2025—2035年总就业增量、增长率、公用事业、电气设备制造、数据处理行业分项、基期或预测口径。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "bls-us-20260827-worker-displacement",
    "title": "美国长期任职者被裁人数升至330万",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T14:00:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T14:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 98,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "美国劳工统计局",
      "release_id": "USDL-26-1423",
      "published_time_eastern": "2026-08-27 10:00 EDT",
      "survey_period": "2023年1月至2025年12月",
      "long_tenured_displaced_workers": "330万人,较2021—2023年增加74.6万人",
      "all_displaced_workers": "740万人,上一期630万人,增加120万人",
      "reemployed_by_january_2026": "66.1%",
      "unemployed_by_january_2026": "18.3%",
      "not_in_labor_force_by_january_2026": "15.7%",
      "manufacturing_long_tenured_displaced_workers": "64.2万人,增加21.5万人,占长期任职裁员19%",
      "durable_goods_manufacturing_displaced_workers": "44.7万人"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "美国长期任职裁员人数增至330万,制造业长期任职裁员增至64.2万→耐用品制造就业和产出预期承压→铜铝等工业金属需求预期偏弱。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "BLS更正长期任职或全部裁员人数、再就业率、失业率、退出劳动力市场比例、制造业分项或调查期间。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/disp.nr0.htm"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "fed-us-20260827-h15-rates",
    "title": "美国10年期国债收益率升至4.66%",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T20:15:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T20:15:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 99,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "美国联邦储备委员会",
      "release": "H.15 Selected Interest Rates",
      "published_time_eastern": "2026-08-27 16:15 EDT",
      "data_date": "2026-08-26",
      "federal_funds_effective_rate": "3.63%",
      "three_month_treasury_bill_secondary_market_rate": "3.70%,前一日3.71%",
      "two_year_treasury_yield": "4.19%,前一日4.17%",
      "five_year_treasury_yield": "4.37%,前一日4.35%",
      "ten_year_treasury_yield": "4.66%,前一日4.64%",
      "thirty_year_treasury_yield": "5.18%,前一日5.17%",
      "ten_year_tips_yield": "2.34%",
      "bank_prime_rate": "6.75%",
      "primary_credit_rate": "3.75%"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "美国2年期、5年期和10年期国债收益率均较前一日上升2个基点→美元资产贴现率上升、持有无息商品的机会成本增加→有色金属短线估值承压。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "美联储更正2026-08-26的联邦基金有效利率、国债收益率、TIPS收益率、银行优惠贷款利率、贴现率或数据日期。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/default.htm",
      "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/FRB_h15_xml.zip"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "fed-us-20260827-h41-balance-sheet",
    "title": "美联储储备银行信贷周减111亿美元",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-27T20:30:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-27T20:30:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 99,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "publisher": "美国联邦储备委员会",
      "release": "H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances",
      "published_time_eastern": "2026-08-27 16:30 EDT",
      "week_ended": "2026-08-26",
      "unit": "百万美元",
      "reserve_bank_credit": "6694609,较前一周-11118,同比+129334",
      "reserve_balances": "2924936,较前一周-10351,同比-300031",
      "securities_held_outright": "6471263,较前一周-551,同比+155884",
      "treasury_securities": "4545674,较前一周+6971",
      "mortgage_backed_securities": "1923242,较前一周-7522,同比-187558",
      "total_factors_supplying_reserve_funds": "6793594,较前一周-10991,同比+129914"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "美联储储备银行信贷一周减少111.18亿美元,准备金余额减少103.51亿美元→银行体系流动性指标边际回落,但变动幅度有限→有色金属短线方向信号中性。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "美联储更正截至2026-08-26的储备银行信贷、准备金余额、证券持有量、国债、MBS、供给储备金因素总额或单位。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/",
      "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/about.htm"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  }
]

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