Geopolitics Daily Brief - July 20, 2026

What matters this morning

1. China-Japan: Heavy rare-earth shipments to Japan stayed at zero in June

• China sent no gallium, dysprosium, terbium or yttrium to Japan in June, Chinese customs data released on July 20 showed. 1
• Japan has the largest rare-earth magnet sector outside China but still relies on China for some inputs; Japanese companies have warned that the restrictions are beginning to affect the wider economy. 1
• China exported 5,649 metric tons of rare-earth magnets overall in June, up from 4,730 tons in May, while the United States received no yttrium for the second consecutive month. 1

2. Russia-Ukraine: Russian attacks kill at least six in Kyiv and other cities

• Russian attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities killed at least six people, with dozens wounded, AP reported. 2
• AP's report described the attacks as involving missiles, drones and bombs and pointed to gaps in Ukraine's air defences. 2
• The AP item did not identify a specific port, factory or rail outage, so the confirmed commercial signal is the continuing security and air-defence strain rather than a documented logistics shutdown. 2

3. Middle East: Ninth day of U.S. strikes keeps Hormuz shipping under pressure

• U.S. forces hit Iran for a ninth consecutive day on July 20; U.S. Central Command said it had begun a new wave of strikes intended to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. 3
• Iran's Revolutionary Guards said two oil tankers exploded and were immobilised after attempting to use a southern route through Hormuz, but Reuters said it could not immediately verify the claim; the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre separately reported a vessel on fire near Oman's coast. 3
• LSEG data showed four vessels transited Hormuz on Sunday, down from eight the previous day, while at least three product tankers and one very large crude carrier had entered since Friday to load oil. 3

4. Lebanon: Aoun will take a Hezbollah disarmament plan to Trump

• Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is due to visit the White House this week and present President Donald Trump with a plan to disarm Hezbollah and secure an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, Reuters reported on July 19. 5
• A Lebanese official said Aoun would bring a written proposal, while Aoun has asked Trump to pressure Israel to implement the June 26 agreement on Hezbollah's disarmament and a phased troop withdrawal. 5
• Reuters said Hezbollah has rejected the government's direct talks with Israel and efforts to strip it of its arms, while Israeli troops still occupy a swathe of southern Lebanon and hundreds of thousands of Lebanese remain displaced. 5

5. Taiwan Strait: Chinese government-vessel sightings around Taiwan jumped in June

• Taiwan recorded 55 Chinese government-vessel sightings around the island in June, including coast guard and research boats, up from 30 in May, according to Taiwan Coast Guard data cited by Reuters. 6
• The June total was 83% higher than May and 120% above June last year; the count excluded sightings around Taiwan-controlled islands near the Chinese coast. 6
• Taiwan plans drills simulating Chinese escalation off its Pacific coast, and officials said Chinese coast guard vessels had questioned merchant ships about port entry and exit information, although no ship had changed course. 6