2026-08-15 01:30｜金银再升，美元指数降至99.53

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-15 01:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-14T14:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-14T17:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260814-spot-gold-439149", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "现货金升至 4391.49 美元并涨 1%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T16:00:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:13:52.694Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-14", "observed_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:00:00Z", "spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4391.49, "change_percent": 1.0, "previous_session_change_percent": -1.3, "weekly_change_percent": 1.2, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T04:02:40.327Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:13:52.694Z", "source_context": "Reuters reported spot gold at $4,391.49 per ounce by 12:00 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT), up 1%; prices declined 1.3% in the previous session and were up 1.2% for the week." }, "transmission_chain": "美元指数下滑且市场对下月联储利率路径的压力减轻→美元计价黄金的海外购买成本下降、无息资产机会成本预期回落→AU 现货升至 4391.49 美元/盎司", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美元指数反弹并伴随联储加息概率回升，或现货金跌回 4391.49 美元下方并形成新的下行状态时，该短线支撑传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260814-us-gold-futures-444900", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国黄金期货升至 4449 美元并涨 0.7%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T16:00:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:13:52.694Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-14", "observed_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:00:00Z", "us_gold_futures_usd_per_ounce": 4449.00, "change_percent": 0.7, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T04:02:40.327Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:13:52.694Z", "source_context": "Reuters reported U.S. gold futures up 0.7% at $4,449 per ounce." }, "transmission_chain": "美国黄金期货升至 4449 美元且上涨 0.7%→期货端买盘确认现货反弹方向→AU 短线偏强", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国黄金期货跌回 4449 美元下方并持续走弱时，该期货端偏强传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AG-20260814-spot-silver-6501", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "现货银升至 65.01 美元并涨 0.9%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:13:52.694Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-14", "spot_silver_usd_per_ounce": 65.01, "change_percent": 0.9, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T04:02:40.327Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:13:52.694Z", "source_context": "Reuters reported spot silver up 0.9% at $65.01 per ounce; the page provides the source date but no separate exact observation time for silver." }, "transmission_chain": "现货银升至 65.01 美元且上涨 0.9%→贵金属风险偏好与工业金属联动改善→AG 盘中偏强", "invalidation_conditions": "后续现货银跌回 65.01 美元下方并出现持续下行状态时，该短线偏强传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-loss-investors-unwind-inflation-fuelled-rally-2026-08-14/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260814-dollar-index-9953", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美元指数降至 99.53 并跌 0.39%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T15:55:43.676Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-14", "dollar_index": 99.53, "change_percent": -0.39, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T02:32:50.150Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-14T15:55:43.676Z", "source_context": "Reuters reported the dollar index down 0.39% at 99.53; the page provides no separate exact observation time." }, "transmission_chain": "美元指数降至 99.53 并下跌 0.39%→美元计价贵金属的汇率压力减轻→AU 与 AG 获得盘中支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美元指数反弹并收复 99.53 且持续走强时，该汇率支撑传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-14/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-14/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260814-iran-oil-8787", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "伊朗紧张局势下布油升至 87.87 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T15:48:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:34:24.586Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-14", "observed_at_utc": "2026-08-14T15:48:00Z", "brent_usd_per_barrel": 87.87, "brent_change_percent": 0.92, "wti_usd_per_barrel": 81.69, "wti_change_percent": 0.53, "brent_weekly_change_percent": 5.09, "wti_weekly_change_percent": 4.37, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T01:36:13.382Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-14T16:34:24.586Z", "source_context": "Reuters reported Brent at $87.87 a barrel, up 0.92%, and WTI at $81.69, up 0.53%, at 1548 GMT; Brent and WTI were on track for weekly gains of 5.09% and 4.37% as tensions involving Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persisted." }, "transmission_chain": "伊朗与霍尔木兹航运紧张叠加布油 87.87 美元、周涨 5.09%→供应风险推升避险溢价和通胀预期、同时压制工业需求预期→AU 避险支撑与利率压制并存、AG 工业需求方向偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "停火谈判取得可核验进展、霍尔木兹航运恢复，或油价持续回落并削弱供应风险时，该双向传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-weekly-gains-after-us-threatens-indefinite-blockade-iran-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-weekly-gains-after-us-threatens-indefinite-blockade-iran-2026-08-14/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-weekly-gains-after-us-threatens-indefinite-blockade-iran-2026-08-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-weekly-gains-after-us-threatens-indefinite-blockade-iran-2026-08-14/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 SPDR 官方历史归档接口与 iShares 官方数据下载接口；GLD 归档最新行为 2026-08-13，SLV 历史数据最新行为 2026-08-13，均未提供 2026-08-14 14:30—17:30 UTC 窗口内的持仓变动数字和发布时间证据，故未以旧数据替代。", "source_urls": ["[https://api.[spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))"] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级、SHFE AU/AG 仓单与 SGE 出入库", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 CME 官方 Notice Search 并对 SGE 中文、英文官方域名做定向检索；CME 入口未出现窗口内 COMEX 金银库存分级数字，SGE 检索无可核验结果，SHFE 公开入口也未返回窗口内仓单数字，故未以入口壳、交割通知或搜索摘要替代。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html))"] }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率曲线", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走美国财政部 Real Yield Curve TextView 与官方 CSV；CSV 最新行是 2026-08-13 的 5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 实际收益率 2.11%/2.23%/2.39%/2.76%/2.97%，没有 2026-08-14 行，也没有窗口内发布时间证据，故未将旧日值作为本期新增事件。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&page&_format=csv)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&page&_format=csv))"] } ] }