2026-09-02 09:30|上期所金银持仓增加,实际收益率分化

2026-09-02 09:30|上期所金银持仓增加,实际收益率分化

本期覆盖上一次运行以来的四条可核验事件,包含上期所金银持仓、美国实际收益率曲线与美联储官员通胀政策表述,并标注三项硬覆盖缺口。

{ "window": { "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "start": "2026-09-02T01:30:00Z", "end": "2026-09-02T01:49:08Z", "label": "上一次运行以来" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260902-open-interest", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上期所黄金总持仓增加 4113 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T01:49:08Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-02", "market": "SHFE gold futures", "open_interest_lots": 381180, "open_interest_change_lots": 4113, "volume_lots": 338626, "turnover": 31943821.414, "turnover_unit": "CNY·10,000", "prior_open_interest_lots": 377067, "prior_volume_lots": 290720, "prior_open_interest_change_lots": 17, "prior_turnover": 27963449.376, "date_field_conflict": "官方返回体含 o_IMChangeDate=20150813;本事件日期按官方端点路径 kx20260902.dat 及 o_day=02 记录。" }, "transmission_chain": "黄金期货总持仓日增 4113 手→市场总未平仓合约增加但未区分多空→AU 持仓结构信息更新,价格方向不可由该字段单独确定。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续官方修订 2026-09-02 黄金总持仓、持仓变动或日期字段并否定上述数值时,该事件作废。", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260902.dat"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260902-open-interest", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上期所白银总持仓增加 1814 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T01:49:08Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 0}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-02", "market": "SHFE silver futures", "open_interest_lots": 550099, "open_interest_change_lots": 1814, "volume_lots": 709417, "turnover": 16802621.1645, "turnover_unit": "CNY·10,000", "prior_open_interest_lots": 548285, "prior_volume_lots": 780175, "prior_open_interest_change_lots": -1416, "prior_turnover": 19052761.494, "date_field_conflict": "官方返回体含 o_IMChangeDate=20150813;本事件日期按官方端点路径 kx20260902.dat 及 o_day=02 记录。" }, "transmission_chain": "白银期货总持仓日增 1814 手→市场总未平仓合约增加但未区分多空→AG 持仓结构信息更新,价格方向不可由该字段单独确定。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续官方修订 2026-09-02 白银总持仓、持仓变动或日期字段并否定上述数值时,该事件作废。", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260902.dat"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "TREASURY-AU-20260901-real-yield-curve", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美国实际收益率长端分化", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T01:49:08Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-01", "metric": "U.S. Treasury daily real yield curve", "unit": "percent", "values": {"5Y": 2.18, "7Y": 2.30, "10Y": 2.44, "20Y": 2.78, "30Y": 2.98}, "prior_date": "2026-08-31", "prior_values": {"5Y": 2.18, "7Y": 2.29, "10Y": 2.44, "20Y": 2.78, "30Y": 2.99}, "changes_percentage_points": {"5Y": 0.00, "7Y": 0.01, "10Y": 0.00, "20Y": 0.00, "30Y": -0.01} }, "transmission_chain": "2026-09-01 美国实际收益率 7Y 上升 0.01 个百分点且 30Y 下降 0.01 个百分点→期限实际利率信号分化→AU 实际利率驱动未形成单方向新信息。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国财政部修订 2026-09-01 或 2026-08-31 任一期限实际收益率数值,导致上述变化不成立时,该事件作废。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "FED-AU-20260901-barr-inflation-policy", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美联储 Barr 称通胀停滞或需加息", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T01:49:08Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-01", "speaker": "Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr", "speech_title": "Speech by Governor Barr on the economic outlook and financial inclusion", "inflation_2022": "peaked above 7%", "inflation_2024": "fell to slightly above 2%", "inflation_2025": "progress stalled", "policy_statement": "Barr said the September FOMC would revisit inflation and policy; insufficient further inflation slowing should prompt decisive rate hikes。", "consensus": null, "prior": null, "actual": null }, "transmission_chain": "Barr 称通胀回落在 2025 年停滞且若进一步降温不足应果断加息→政策路径的紧缩尾部风险上升→实际利率与持有黄金的机会成本可能上行,AU 承压信号为负。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 Barr 本人澄清或美联储正式材料否定该政策表述,或后续通胀数据持续下降并使加息路径风险消退时,该事件的方向判断作废。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260901a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260901a.htm)](https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260901a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260901a.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "item": "GLD 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "SPDR Gold Shares 官方产品页与 Historical Archive;归档最新仅至 2026-08-31,未取得 2026-09-01 可比较日变动。" }, { "item": "SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "iShares Silver Trust 官方产品页;页面显示 2026-09-01 静态持仓但未提供前一日可比较值或日变动字段,允许来源中未取得数值性替代转述。" }, { "item": "COMEX 金银 registered/eligible 库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "CME NYMEX/COMEX Delivery Notices & Stocks 官方入口及 Gold Stocks、Silver Stocks 文件;入口无分级数值,文件访问受限,允许来源中未取得窗口内替代转述。" } ] }

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