截至2026年8月18日11时：6条豆粕ETF结构化事件

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40 元/吨；区域现货同步走强为豆粕 ETF 提供短线支撑，后续需观察涨价后的成交量。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "九江中粮或九江一德更新报价并回吐 40 元/吨涨幅", "后续江西同口径现货报价转为下跌" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/F23C34764FFF2040_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/F23C34764FFF2040_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/F23C34764FFF2040_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/F23C34764FFF2040_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-hubei-hunan-spot", "title": "两湖 43%豆粕报价上涨 30 至 70 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T02:03:49Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "market": "两湖市场", "product": "43%豆粕现货", "unit": "元/吨", "quotes": [ {"market_entity": "武汉中海", "price": 3170, "change_vs_previous": 70}, {"market_entity": "岳阳道道全", "price": 3130, "change_vs_previous": 30} ], "comparison": "较前期报价", "change_unit": "元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": "两湖市场 43%豆粕报价分别为 3170 元和 3130 元/吨，较前期上涨 70 元和 30 元；区域现货普涨为豆粕 ETF 提供短线支撑，信号能否延续取决于成交承接。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "武汉中海或岳阳道道全更新报价并回吐本次涨幅", "后续两湖同口径现货报价转为下跌" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/3B749FBF66812141_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/3B749FBF66812141_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/3B749FBF66812141_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/3B749FBF66812141_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-shanghai-spot", "title": "上海东辰 43%豆粕报价区间 3070 至 3110 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T02:04:54Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "market": "上海市场", "market_entity": "上海东辰油厂", "product": "43±0.5%豆粕现货", "unit": "元/吨", "quotes": [ {"package": "70 公斤定量包", "price_range": [3070, 3100]}, {"package": "50 公斤定量包", "price_range": [3080, 3110]} ], "quote_range_overall": [3070, 3110], "pickup_period": "2026-08-21 至 2026-08-31", "change_disclosure": "页面称报价上涨，未披露具体涨幅", "comparison": "较前期报价", "quote_unit": "元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": "上海东辰 43±0.5%豆粕现货报价区间为 3070 至 3110 元/吨，页面同时称报价上涨；华东现货端提供短线支撑，但页面未披露涨幅，方向强度低于带有变动值的区域报价。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "上海东辰更新报价并下调 3070 至 3110 元/吨的对应价位", "后续上海及华东同口径现货报价转为下跌" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/AF3E4915269E292C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/AF3E4915269E292C_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/AF3E4915269E292C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/AF3E4915269E292C_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-brazil-cnf", "title": "巴西大豆近月 CNF 报 295 和 304 美分", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T02:12:19Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "market": "巴西大豆进口船期", "product": "进口大豆 CNF 升贴水", "unit": "美分/蒲式耳", "quotes": [ {"shipment": "2026 年 10 月船期", "quote": 295}, {"shipment": "2026 年 11 月船期", "quote": 304} ], "far_month_range": {"shipment": "2027 年 2 月至 8 月船期", "min": 115, "max": 175}, "comparison": "近月报价较前几日小幅上涨后企稳，远月近期表现平稳", "quote_type": "CNF 升贴水" }, "transmission_chain": "巴西大豆 10 月和 11 月船期 CNF 升贴水分别报 295 和 304 美分/蒲式耳，近月报价上涨后企稳；远月报价处于 115 至 175 美分/蒲式耳区间，进口成本端暂未提供新的单向压力，豆粕 ETF 方向评分维持中性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "巴西大豆近月 CNF 升贴水继续上调并扩展到更多船期", "近月报价跌破本次 295 和 304 美分/蒲式耳的水平并形成连续变动" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/DCF245F5515CD7C2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/DCF245F5515CD7C2_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/DCF245F5515CD7C2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081810/DCF245F5515CD7C2_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]