August 2 LEGO radar: Flower Bouquet leads a six-set post-retirement screen at 43% below MSRP (2026)

The short version

No timestamped listing cleared this week's check on eBay, Mercari, Vinted, Depop, or BrickLink. The useful result is a post-retirement price screen for six sets whose retirement date is listed as July 31, 2026: Flower Bouquet has the deepest reference discount, while Statue of Liberty is the stronger older-set scarcity case.

The window here is July 26 at 10:00 a.m. through August 2 at 10:00 a.m. (UTC-05:00). The prices are BrickRanker's six-month average sale references, not live offers. Because BrickLink supply counts were not available, the rarity order is provisional: it uses retirement age, recorded-sales depth, discount size, and confidence in the price sample rather than claiming a complete scarcity score. 1 2

Ranked price screen

Rank	Set and theme	Retirement / scarcity proxy	Reference price vs. MSRP	Market signal	This week's listing record
1	10280 Flower Bouquet, Creator Expert / Botanical Collection 2	Jul 31, 2026; 5 years 7 months on shelf; 486 recorded sales	$34.21 vs. $59.99, 43.0% below 2	High confidence; deep discount with a large sample	No qualified dated listing; condition and seller unconfirmed
2	21042 Statue of Liberty, Architecture 3	Jul 31, 2026; 8 years 2 months on shelf; 309 recorded sales	$79.96 vs. $119.99, 33.4% below 3	Oldest set in the group; the discount is still meaningful	No qualified dated listing; condition and seller unconfirmed
3	10362 French Café, Icons 4	Jul 31, 2026; 1 year 7 months on shelf; 11 recorded sales	$50.37 vs. $79.99, 37.0% below 4	Deep discount, but a thin sample; price data updated Jul 26	No qualified dated listing; condition and seller unconfirmed
4	10302 Optimus Prime, Icons / Transformers 5	Jul 31, 2026; 4 years 2 months on shelf; 281 recorded sales	$144.75 vs. $179.99, 19.6% below 5	Liquid reference, but no formal forecast on the page	No qualified dated listing; condition and seller unconfirmed
5	21350 Jaws, Ideas 6	Jul 31, 2026; about 2 years on shelf; 45 recorded sales	$144.15 vs. $149.99, 3.9% below 6	Thin sample; the Jul 26 monthly average was $169.05, above MSRP	No qualified dated listing; condition and seller unconfirmed
6	10307 Eiffel Tower, Icons / Landmarks 7	Jul 31, 2026; 3 years 9 months on shelf; 109 recorded sales	$609.97 vs. $629.99, 3.2% below 7	10,001-piece flagship, but almost no price cushion	No qualified dated listing; condition and seller unconfirmed

The order is a buy-screen order, not a claim that Flower Bouquet is intrinsically rarer than Eiffel Tower. The first two combine a usable sample with a large gap to MSRP. French Café has the second-deepest discount, but 11 sales is too thin to treat $50.37 as a stable market. Jaws and Eiffel Tower are newly retired but barely below their original prices, so fees, shipping, or box damage can erase the apparent discount.

LEGO Flower Bouquet set 10280 — *Official LEGO product image for set 10280. The product page identifies the set as 756 pieces and lists a US price of $59.99.*8

1. Flower Bouquet, 10280

Reference screen: $34.21 against a $59.99 MSRP, or 43.0% below retail. BrickRanker reports 756 pieces, no minifigures, 486 recorded sales, and high confidence in the reference. Its stated retirement date is July 31, 2026. 2

Action: Start a saved search around $34 for a sealed copy, then move lower for an opened one. The reference is already 43% below MSRP, so a seller asking much more than the mid-$30s should explain the premium with condition, box quality, or unusually complete documentation.

Authentication check: This set has no minifigures, so the main risk is a mixed or incomplete parts lot rather than a substituted character. Ask for the box number 10280, the instruction book, a complete parts spread, and close photos of the distinctive flower elements. A finished bouquet in one photo proves that someone built a bouquet; it does not prove that the exact set is complete.

2. Statue of Liberty, 21042

Reference screen: $79.96 against a $119.99 MSRP, or 33.4% below retail. The set launched in June 2018, retired on July 31, 2026, contains 1,685 pieces, has no minifigures, and has 309 recorded sales. Its eight-year run is the clearest age-based scarcity signal in this week's cohort, although no BrickLink supply count was returned. 3

Action: Treat roughly $80 as the reference ceiling for a clean sealed copy. For an opened build, the discount needs to be larger: the model's many small architectural pieces make a distant display photo a weak completeness check.

Authentication check: Require a sharp photo of the box or instruction cover showing 21042, plus a parts spread and a full view of the model's base and statue. The set has no minifigures to verify. Watch for a seller describing a display model as "complete" without showing the instructions or the smaller tan and green elements separately.

3. French Café, 10362

Reference screen: $50.37 against a $79.99 MSRP, or 37.0% below retail. BrickRanker lists 1,101 pieces, no minifigures, 11 recorded sales, and a Jul 26 price-data update. It also lists retirement on July 31, 2026. The discount is attractive; the sample is not. 4

Action: This is a watchlist buy below the $50 reference, not a set to chase because it just retired. With only 11 recorded sales, one unusually cheap or expensive transaction can move the average sharply. Prefer a sealed box or a complete opened set priced well below the reference.

Authentication check: Ask for box number 10362, the instruction booklet, and a parts spread before paying for a loose build. There are no minifigures to use as a shortcut. If the seller's only evidence is a front-facing café display, assume the inventory is unverified and price it accordingly.

4. Optimus Prime, 10302

Reference screen: $144.75 against a $179.99 MSRP, or 19.6% below retail. The set has 1,508 pieces, no minifigures, 281 recorded sales, and a four-year shelf life ending July 31, 2026. BrickRanker gives a current reference and historical prices but no formal forecast or range on the detail page. 5

Action: Keep the mid-$140s as a starting ceiling for a sealed copy, with a lower ceiling for an opened conversion. A seller's claim that the model can transform is not a completeness certificate; the conversion joints and small accessories still need to be documented.

Authentication check: Request photos of box number 10302, the instructions, both robot and truck configurations, and a complete parts spread. There are no minifigures. A single completed pose can hide missing pieces that only appear in the alternate configuration.

5. Jaws, 21350

Reference screen: $144.15 against a $149.99 MSRP, or 3.9% below retail. BrickRanker reports 1,485 pieces and three exclusive minifigures: Matt Hooper, Chief Martin Brody, and Sam Quint. It records 45 sales, and the latest monthly point shown is $169.05 for July 26, while the six-month average remains $144.15. That spread is a warning against treating the current average as a guaranteed bargain. 6

Action: Skip ordinary opened copies near $144; the cushion is too small after shipping and fees. A sealed box around or below the current reference is worth a saved search, but a real deal needs to beat the latest market behavior, not just the six-month average.

Authentication check: Verify box number 21350, the instructions, and individual photos of all three exclusive minifigures. For an opened display, ask for the boat, shark, and smaller scene elements separately rather than accepting one front-facing photo. BrickLink currently shows many Jaws listings, including complete and sealed descriptions, but no individual listing dates, so those pages cannot prove a new listing this week. 9

6. Eiffel Tower, 10307

Reference screen: $609.97 against a $629.99 MSRP, or 3.2% below retail. This is a 10,001-piece Icons set with 109 recorded sales, listed as retired on July 31, 2026. Its size makes it an important collector watch, but a near-MSRP reference is not a discount once shipping, storage, and box damage enter the calculation. 7

Action: Do not buy on the current reference alone. Wait for a sealed, well-photographed listing materially below $610, or for a complete opened copy whose seller has already sorted the parts and can show the instructions. A large box with a damaged corner is not a small cosmetic issue when the discount is only 3.2%.

Authentication check: Require box number 10307, clear photos of the seal and all box corners, the instruction materials, and a sorted inventory. There are no minifigures. For an opened set, ask how it was stored and whether the seller can show the parts in groups; one enormous assembled model is the least useful proof of completeness.

What the marketplace pass actually found

The five allowed platforms produced leads, but none produced a detail page that proved a new listing inside the July 26-August 2 window.

eBay: One accessible retired-set page showed a listing last updated on May 26, 2026, not this week, and did not expose the original creation date. A separate 10280 result returned only a browser-check page. 10 11
Mercari: An accessible retired LEGO page showed a seller, price, condition, and a blank Posted field. The 10280 candidate returned a security-verification page rather than item details. 12 13
Vinted: The Optimus Prime 10302 candidate was marked Removed, so it cannot support a current offer or a listing date. 14
Depop: The Flower Bouquet 10280 page exposed a seller and offer activity, but not the price, condition, or listing date in the retrieved detail. 15
BrickLink: The Jaws page showed 109 current items with prices and conditions, but no individual seller listing dates. Its catalog-add date is not a marketplace-listing date. 9

That leaves a deliberate gap: this issue has no listing price, condition, seller rating, or offer URL that can honestly be called a past-week find. The ranked prices are ceilings for saved searches. Before buying, check the real listing date, condition, seller history, photos, shipping, return terms, and completeness against the relevant set entry above.

Action order

Save searches for 10280 around $34 and 21042 around $80. They have the best combination of discount and usable market evidence.
Watch 10362 below $50, but demand stronger proof because only 11 sales support its reference.
Keep 10302 around the mid-$140s as a liquid, moderate-discount target rather than a forecast play.
Treat 21350 and 10307 as wait-for-a-real-discount sets. Their current reference prices leave too little room for fees, shipping, or missing parts.
For any hit, verify the listing date first. Then match the set number, condition, instructions, parts evidence, and minifigure evidence where applicable. A low price without those checks is only a lead.

One final complication: retirement labels are not synchronized. Brickset and BrickRanker place the six-set cohort at July 31, while LEGO's current US last-chance page still displays items such as Jaws and Optimus Prime as retiring soon. Use the July 31 date as the market-screen boundary, but treat store availability and the transition from retail to secondary market as a lagging process rather than a switch that changes everywhere at once. 1 16

August 2 LEGO radar: Flower Bouquet leads a six-set post-retirement screen at 43% below MSRP