00:30｜上金所夜盘回落，沃什讲话后加息押注升至约50%

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-28T13:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-28T16:30:00Z", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "events": [ { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260829-night-delayed-au9999-970", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Au99.99 最新 970 元较日盘收盘下跌", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T16:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 08 月 29 日延时行情：Au99.99 最新价 970.0 CNY/g，最高价 1000.0 CNY/g，最低价 970.0 CNY/g，今开盘 993.0 CNY/g。上一期已发布的上金所 2026 年 08 月 28 日每日行情中，Au99.99 收盘 995.05 CNY/g；本次最新价较该收盘低 25.05 CNY/g。原文日期：2026-08-29；页面未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "上金所 Au99.99 最新价 970.0 CNY/g、较前一交易日日盘收盘 995.05 CNY/g 低 25.05 CNY/g→国内黄金延期与现货报价在夜盘快照中走弱→AU 日内方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所修正 2026-08-29 延时行情的 Au99.99 价格或日期时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260829-night-delayed-autd-9706", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Au(T+D)最新 970.6 元较日盘收盘下跌", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T16:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 08 月 29 日延时行情：Au(T+D)最新价 970.6 CNY/g，最高价 1000.41 CNY/g，最低价 968.0 CNY/g，今开盘 992.0 CNY/g。上一期已发布的上金所 2026 年 08 月 28 日每日行情中，Au(T+D)收盘 995.10 CNY/g；本次最新价较该收盘低 24.50 CNY/g。原文日期：2026-08-29；页面未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "上金所 Au(T+D)最新价 970.6 CNY/g、较前一交易日日盘收盘 995.10 CNY/g 低 24.50 CNY/g→黄金延期合约夜盘报价走弱→AU 延期端日内方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所修正 2026-08-29 延时行情的 Au(T+D)价格或日期时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AG-20260829-night-delayed-agtd-16300", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Ag(T+D)最新 16300 元较日盘收盘下跌", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T16:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": -2}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 08 月 29 日延时行情：Ag(T+D)最新价 16,300.0 CNY/kg，最高价 17,500.0 CNY/kg，最低价 16,200.0 CNY/kg，今开盘 17,090.0 CNY/kg。上一期已发布的上金所 2026 年 08 月 28 日每日行情中，Ag(T+D)收盘 17,180.0 CNY/kg；本次最新价较该收盘低 880.0 CNY/kg。原文日期：2026-08-29；页面未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "上金所 Ag(T+D)最新价 16,300.0 CNY/kg、较前一交易日日盘收盘 17,180.0 CNY/kg 低 880.0 CNY/kg→国内白银延期合约夜盘报价明显走弱→AG 日内方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所修正 2026-08-29 延时行情的 Ag(T+D)价格或日期时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SPDR-AU-20260828-gld-trust-3365040389", "event_type": "etf_flow", "title": "GLD 官网 8 月 28 日持金 33650403.89 盎司", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T16:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "SPDR Gold Shares 官网 Trust Information 数据日期 August 28, 2026：Gold Held/Ounces 33,650,403.89 troy ounces，Tonnes 1,046.636 tonnes，Total Net Asset Value US$153,493,928,815.39，Total Shares Outstanding 366,800,000。上一期已发布的官网数据日期为 August 27, 2026，Gold Held/Ounces 同为 33,650,403.89 troy ounces；本次为日期推进、持金量不变。页面未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "GLD 官网将数据日期推进至 2026 年 8 月 28 日且黄金持有量仍为 33,650,403.89 金衡盎司→黄金 ETF 实物支持规模保持不变→AU ETF 持仓信号中性", "invalidation_conditions": "SPDR Gold Shares 修正 2026-08-28 Trust Information 中的数据日期、持有量或净值时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260828-spot-gold-456305", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透：现货金 1452GMT 报 4563.05 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-28T14:52:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T15:28:29.160Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -2}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 稿件 updated 2026-08-28T15:28:29.160Z：Spot gold was down 0.8% at $4,563.05 per ounce by 1452 GMT，盘中早些时候触及一周低点$4,528.94 per ounce。该稿件发表于 2026-08-28T02:20:36.123Z。", "transmission_chain": "路透报道 1452 GMT 现货金 4,563.05 美元/盎司且下跌 0.8%、盘中低点 4,528.94 美元/盎司→沃什讲话后美国加息押注升温并抬高美元计价成本→AU 短线方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "路透更正 1452 GMT 现货金报价、跌幅或盘中低点时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260828-spot-silver-6948", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透：现货银报 69.48 美元涨 0.3%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T15:28:29.160Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 稿件 updated 2026-08-28T15:28:29.160Z：Spot silver rose 0.3% to $69.48 per ounce。文章原文日期：Aug 28, 2026；该稿件未给出现货白银报价的精确时刻。", "transmission_chain": "路透报道现货银 69.48 美元/盎司且上涨 0.3%→白银相对黄金呈现同窗口价格分化→AG 短线方向略偏多", "invalidation_conditions": "路透更正该稿现货白银报价或涨幅时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260828-us-gold-futures-461510", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透：12 月期金报 4615.10 美元跌 1%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T15:28:29.160Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -2}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 稿件 updated 2026-08-28T15:28:29.160Z：U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 1% to $4,615.10。文章原文日期：Aug 28, 2026；该稿件未给出期金报价的精确时刻。", "transmission_chain": "路透报道美国 12 月期金 4,615.10 美元/盎司且下跌 1%→美国利率路径重新定价抬高黄金期货持有成本→AU 期货端短线方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "路透更正美国 12 月期金报价或跌幅时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260828-fedwatch-sep-50pct", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透：九月加息概率升至约 50%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T15:50:05.787Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -2, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "Reuters 美元稿件 updated 2026-08-28T15:50:05.787Z：沃什在杰克逊霍尔讲话后，市场对美联储 9 月会议至少加息 25 个基点的预期升至约 50%，讲话前约 35%。同一窗口较早更新的 Reuters 贵金属稿件曾报 9 月约 56%、讲话前 36%；本事件采用后续美元稿件的约 50%作为较晚采样值，避免重复计数。", "transmission_chain": "路透报道美联储 9 月至少加息 25 个基点的押注由约 35%升至约 50%→短端利率路径预期收紧→AU/AG 无息贵金属短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "路透更正该稿 FedWatch 概率，或 CME FedWatch 回溯确认该时点概率并与之冲突时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/)](https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260828-dollar-dxy-9946", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透：美元指数升至 99.46 涨 0.35%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T15:50:05.787Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 美元稿件 updated 2026-08-28T15:50:05.787Z：美元指数报 99.46，日内上涨 0.35%，盘中最高 99.592；欧元兑美元报 1.1611，日内下跌 0.34%；美元兑日元报 159.88，日内上涨 0.31%；英镑兑美元报 1.3566，日内下跌 0.18%；美元兑加元报 1.388，日内上涨 0.24%。文章原文日期：Aug 28, 2026；各报价未给出精确时刻。", "transmission_chain": "路透报道美元指数 99.46 且日内上涨 0.35%、美元兑日元 159.88 且上涨 0.31%→美元相对主要货币走强→美元计价 AU/AG 短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "路透更正该稿美元指数、汇率或涨跌幅时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/)](https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flat-near-one-week-high-investors-await-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-2026-08-28/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "item": "SLV 每日持仓变动（2026-08-28）", "status": "未交付", "detail": "本轮改走 iShares Silver Trust 官方 Key Facts 页面与 JPMorgan SLV 托管清单 PDF；iShares 页面仍为 as of Aug 27, 2026，Ounces in Trust 493,380,951.20，JPM 清单仍为 As at:27-August-2026，Total Fine Ounces 493,381,430.900，均未出现 2026-08-28 新日期或新持仓数字，因此无法核验当日新增变动。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))", "[https://emea-[markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf](https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf)](https://markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf](https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf))"] }, { "item": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动（2026-08-28）", "status": "未交付", "detail": "本轮先读取 CME Historical Registrar Reports 官方页面，再改走页面列出的 Gold_Stocks.xls 与 Silver_stocks.xls 直接下载；历史页面仅确认金银库存下载入口，直接下载均返回 403，仍无法核验 registered、eligible 及总量数字，未以搜索摘要或非白名单转述替代。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))"] } ] }