2026-08-14 15:00｜有色金属事件流（8条）

[
  {
    "event_id": "ndrc-cn-20260814-fuel-price-adjustment",
    "title": "国内汽柴油每吨分别下调230元和220元",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T06:38:43Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T06:38:43Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/xwfb/202608/t20260814_1406999.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 99,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "国家发展改革委价格司于2026年8月14日14:38:43（北京时间）发布调价通知",
      "自2026年8月14日24时起，国内汽油（标准品）价格每吨下调230元，柴油（标准品）价格每吨下调220元",
      "本次调价前10个工作日国际市场原油平均价格低于上次调价前10个工作日平均价格"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "汽柴油价格每吨下调220至230元→有色采选、冶炼和运输的燃料成本边际下降→成本与利润率变化影响有色板块定价",
    "invalidation_conditions": "下一轮成品油调价转为上调，或燃料成本在有色企业总成本中的降幅被电力、矿石和人工成本上涨抵消"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-northchina-20260814-cu-spot-basis",
    "title": "华北1#铜贴水均价维持385元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T03:44:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T03:44:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104060322"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月14日华北1#电解铜对沪铜2608合约报贴水420至350元/吨，贴水均价为385元/吨",
      "贴水均价较上一交易日持平",
      "成交价均价为107830元/吨，较上一交易日下跌40元/吨"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "华北1#铜维持385元/吨深贴水且成交均价下跌→现货采购承接偏弱→铜现货定价承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "换月后报价基准切至沪铜2609合约并出现明显表观修复，或现货成交放量推动贴水快速收窄"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-import-20260814-cu-concentrate-tc",
    "title": "进口铜精矿周度TC降至-175.37美元/干吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T03:56:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T03:56:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104060349",
      "https://hq.smm.cn/h5/imported-copper-ore-processing-price-week"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "supply_demand",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 2
    },
    "confidence": 96,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月14日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报价区间和均价均为-175.37美元/干吨",
      "该指数较2026年8月7日的-173.91美元/干吨下跌1.46美元/干吨"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "进口铜精矿TC降至-175.37美元/干吨→矿端原料继续紧张并压缩冶炼利润→精铜供应收缩预期支撑铜价",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续周度TC持续回升，或冶炼厂减产幅度低于预期且精铜供应保持充裕"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-guangdong-20260814-zn-spot-basis",
    "title": "广东0#锌对2609贴水75至115元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T03:47:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T03:47:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/zinc/content/104060308"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月14日广东0#锌主流成交价为25475至25605元/吨",
      "主流品牌对沪锌2609合约报贴水115至75元/吨",
      "广东现货对上海现货报贴水55元/吨"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "广东0#锌对期货和上海现货均贴水→华南现货需求与议价偏弱→锌现货价格承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "下游补库带动成交放量并使对沪锌2609合约贴水明显收窄，或沪粤价差快速回落"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-shanghai-20260814-zn-spot-basis",
    "title": "上海0#锌对SMM均价升水50元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T05:09:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T05:09:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/zinc/content/104060586"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 93,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月14日上海0#锌主流成交价为25570至25740元/吨",
      "双燕锌主流成交价为25700至25870元/吨，1#锌主流成交价为25500至25670元/吨",
      "早盘市场对SMM均价报升水50元/吨，对沪锌盘面暂无报价"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "上海0#锌对SMM均价升水50元/吨→持货商挺价但成交未改善→现货升水对锌价形成有限支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "持货商降价出货并使对SMM均价升水消失，或下游采购恢复并推动成交与升水同步上行"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-ningbo-20260814-zn-spot-basis",
    "title": "宁波0#锌对2609升水10元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T05:05:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T05:05:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/zinc/content/104060581"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月14日宁波主流品牌0#锌成交价为25580至25730元/吨",
      "宁波常规品牌对沪锌2609合约报升水10元/吨",
      "宁波常规品牌对上海现货报升水50元/吨"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "宁波0#锌对沪锌2609合约和上海现货均升水→区域货源相对偏紧或卖方报价偏强→宁波现货价格获得支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "下游持续观望导致持货商降价，或宁波对沪锌2609合约转为贴水"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-tianjin-20260814-zn-spot-basis",
    "title": "天津紫金锌对2609升水10至20元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T03:42:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T03:42:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/zinc/content/104060186"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 82,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月14日天津0#锌锭主流成交价为25440至25660元/吨，1#锌锭主流成交价为25430至25610元/吨",
      "紫金锌对沪锌2609合约报升水10至20元/吨",
      "天津现货较上海现货报贴水65元/吨",
      "原文另载0#锌锭对沪锌2609合约报贴水60至1210元/吨，区间疑似排版异常，本事件未将该数值用于方向判断"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "天津紫金锌小幅升水但天津整体较上海贴水65元/吨→品牌间货源与区域需求信号分化→锌现货方向偏中性",
    "invalidation_conditions": "SMM修正疑似异常的0#锌贴水区间，或天津对上海现货价差转为升水并伴随成交放量"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260814-cu-spot-basis-1100",
    "title": "Mysteel沪津鲁铜均贴水170至360元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-14T03:15:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T03:15:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.m.mysteel.com/a/26081411/B7A0C4EFE6C8B65E_abc.html",
      "https://youse.m.mysteel.com/a/26081411/E6D8195143BEDF37_abc.html",
      "https://dianjietong.mysteel.com/m/26081411/E0734BF8F2DBA6E7.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -2
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Mysteel 11:00汇总显示：上海1#电解铜升贴水区间为贴水300至40元/吨，均价贴水170元/吨，较上一交易日下跌5元/吨",
      "广东1#电解铜升贴水区间为贴水100至20元/吨，均价贴水60元/吨，较上一交易日上涨10元/吨；11:00品牌报价中贵冶贴水20元/吨、铁峰PC和云锡均贴水100元/吨",
      "天津1#电解铜升贴水区间为贴水400至320元/吨，均价贴水360元/吨，较上一交易日下跌20元/吨；天津1#电解铜均价为107890元/吨，较上一交易日下跌80元/吨",
      "重庆1#电解铜升贴水区间为贴水120至升水140元/吨，均价升水10元/吨，较上一交易日下跌20元/吨",
      "山东1#电解铜升贴水区间为贴水400至300元/吨，均价贴水350元/吨，较上一交易日下跌40元/吨"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "Mysteel五地铜升贴水中沪津鲁深贴水且多数均价下行→现货买盘承接偏弱并压低地区报价→铜现货与有色板块短线承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "换月后对沪铜2609合约报价出现技术性修复，或上海、天津、山东贴水快速收窄并伴随成交放量"
  }
]