HPMOR 第24章｜马基雅维利式智能假说（中英对照）
哈利的手被折磨咒废了，他既没有告发德拉科，还拿这件事换来一场合作；德拉科嘴上答应结盟，心里盘算的是复仇。而哈利一路在想的是：人类那颗格外大的脑子，究竟是被什么逼出来的——这一章的名字就是那个假说。
英文原文取自 HPMOR 官方第 24 章。下文保留章首题记与各道官方分隔线，并严格按官方故事正文的自然段逐段排列：每组英文在上、中文在下；中文为依据英文独立校订的非官方译文。hpmor.xyz 对应章 仅用于核对理解、专名、术语与遗漏，未原样转载。
J. K. Rowling coils and strikes, unseen; Orca circles, hard and lean.
J·K·罗琳盘起身子，无声地出击；虎鲸绕着圈游动，精瘦而结实。
Act 3:
第三幕：
Draco waited in a small windowed alcove he'd found near the Great Hall, stomach churning.
德拉科在大礼堂附近找到一间带窗户的小壁龛，就守在那儿，胃里翻腾不休。
There would be a price, and it would not be small. Draco had known that as soon as he'd woken up and realized that he didn't dare enter the Great Hall for breakfast because he might see Harry Potter there and Draco didn't know what would happen after that.
代价总归会来，而且不会小。这一点，德拉科今天早上一睁眼就明白了：他不敢进大礼堂吃早饭，因为说不定会在那儿撞上哈利·波特，而撞上之后会发生什么，他心里一点底都没有。
Footsteps approached.
有脚步声过来。
"Here ya go," said Vincent's voice. "Now da boss ain't in a good mood today, so ya'd better watch your step."
「到了，」文森特的声音传过来。「老板今天心情不痛快，你自个儿留点神。」
Draco was going to skin that idiot alive and send back the flayed body with a request for a more intelligent servant, like a dead gerbil.
德拉科要把这个白痴活剥了皮，再把剥了皮的尸首送回去，附一条要求：换个聪明点的仆人来——比如一只死沙鼠也行。
One set of footsteps went off, and the other set of footsteps came closer.
一串脚步声走远了，另一串脚步声越走越近。
The churning in Draco's stomach got worse.
德拉科胃里翻腾得更凶了。
Harry Potter came into sight. His face was carefully neutral, but his blue-trimmed robes looked oddly askew, as if they hadn't been put on quite right -
哈利·波特出现在视线里。他的脸刻意不动声色，可那件镶蓝边的袍子歪得很不正常，像是没好好穿上——
"Your hand," Draco said without thinking about it at all.
「你的手，」德拉科脱口而出，完全没过脑子。
Harry raised his left arm, as though to look at it himself.
哈利抬起左臂，像是要自己看一眼。
The hand dangled limply from it, like something dead.
那只手软塌塌地垂着，像一件死物。
"Madam Pomfrey said it's not permanent," Harry said quietly. "She said it should mostly recover by the time classes start tomorrow."
「庞弗雷夫人说不会一直这样，」哈利轻声说。「她说等明天上课的时候，应该就恢复得差不多了。」
For a single instant the news came as a relief.
有那么一瞬间，这消息让人松了口气。
And then Draco realized.
然后德拉科反应过来。
"You went to Madam Pomfrey," whispered Draco.
「你去找了庞弗雷夫人，」德拉科低声说。
"Of course I did," said Harry Potter, as though stating the obvious. "My hand wasn't working."
「当然去了，」哈利·波特说，语气像在说一件明摆着的事。「我的手不能动了。」
It was slowly dawning on Draco what an absolute fool he'd been, far worse than the older Slytherins he'd chewed out.
德拉科慢慢明白过来，自己是个彻头彻尾的傻瓜，比他骂过的那些斯莱特林高年级学生蠢得多。
He'd just taken for granted that no one would go to the authorities when a Malfoy did something to them. That no one would want Lucius Malfoy's eye on them, ever.
他一直想当然地以为，马尔福家的人对谁做了什么，对方都不会去告发。没人愿意让卢修斯·马尔福的目光落到自己身上，永远不愿意。
But Harry Potter wasn't a frightened little Hufflepuff trying to stay out of the game. He was already playing it, and Father's eye was already on him.
可哈利·波特不是那种被吓住、只想绕开这场游戏的小小赫奇帕奇学生。他早就在玩了，父亲也早就盯上他了。
"What else did Madam Pomfrey say?" said Draco, his heart in his throat.
「庞弗雷夫人还说了什么？」德拉科问，一颗心吊在嗓子眼上。
"Professor Flitwick said that the spell cast on my hand had been a Dark torture hex and extremely serious business, and that refusing to say who did it was absolutely unacceptable."
「弗立维教授说，施在我手上的那个咒语是黑魔法折磨咒，是极其严重的事，而拒绝交代是谁干的，是绝对不能接受的。」
There was a long pause.
沉默了好一阵。
"And then?" Draco said in a shaking voice.
「那后来呢？」德拉科的声音在抖。
Harry Potter smiled slightly. "I apologized deeply, which made Professor Flitwick look very stern, and then I told Professor Flitwick that the whole thing was, indeed, extremely serious, secret, delicate business, and that I'd already informed the Headmaster about the project."
哈利·波特微微一笑。「我诚恳地道了个歉，弗立维教授的脸色因此变得非常严肃；接着我跟弗立维教授说，这整件事确实极其严重、机密、微妙，而且我已经把那个项目报备给校长了。」
Draco gasped. "No! Flitwick isn't going to just accept that! He'll check with Dumbledore!"
德拉科倒抽一口气。「不可能！弗立维不会就这么算了的！他会去跟邓布利多核实的！」
"Indeed," said Harry Potter. "I was promptly hauled off to the Headmaster's office."
「确实，」哈利·波特说。「我立刻就被拎到校长办公室去了。」
Draco was trembling now. If Dumbledore brought Harry Potter before the Wizengamot, willingly or otherwise, and had the Boy-Who-Lived testify under Veritaserum that Draco had tortured him... too many people loved Harry Potter, Father could lose that vote...
德拉科开始发抖了。要是邓布利多把哈利·波特送到威森加摩去——不管哈利肯不肯——又要让大难不死的男孩喝下吐真剂作证，说德拉科折磨过他……爱戴哈利·波特的人太多了，父亲那场表决完全可能输掉……
Father might be able to convince Dumbledore not to do that, but it would cost. Cost terribly. The game had rules now, you couldn't just threaten someone at random any more. But Draco had walked into Dumbledore's hands of his own free will. And Draco was a very valuable hostage.
父亲也许有办法说服邓布利多别这么做，可那是要付出代价的，极大极大的代价。如今这场游戏有了规矩，不能再随便去威胁谁了。但德拉科是自愿走进邓布利多手心里的。而德拉科是个非常值钱的人质。
Though since Draco couldn't be a Death Eater now, he wasn't as valuable as Father thought.
只不过，既然德拉科现在当不成食死徒了，他就没有父亲以为的那么值钱了。
The thought tore at his heart like a Cutting Charm.
这个念头像一道切割咒，撕扯着他的心。
"Then what?" whispered Draco.
「那后来呢？」德拉科低声问。
"Dumbledore deduced immediately that it was you. He knew we'd been associating."
「邓布利多立刻推出来是你干的。他知道我们近来有来往。」
The worst possible scenario. If Dumbledore hadn't guessed who did it, he might not have risked using Legilimency just to find out... but if Dumbledore knew...
最坏的一种可能。要是邓布利多没猜到是谁，他未必会为了查清这一点就冒险动用读心术……可要是邓布利多已经知道了呢……
"And?" Draco forced out the word.
「然后？」德拉科硬逼着自己吐出了这个词。
"We had a little chat."
「我们聊了一小会儿。」
"And?"
「然后？」
Harry Potter grinned. "And I explained that it would be in his best interest not to do anything."
哈利·波特咧嘴一笑。「然后我跟他说明了一下，什么都不做对他最有利。」
Draco's mind ran into a brick wall and splattered. He just stared at Harry Potter with his mouth hanging slack like a fool.
德拉科的脑子一头撞在墙上，撞得稀烂。他只能张着嘴，像个傻瓜似的瞪着哈利·波特。
It took that long for Draco to remember.
过了这么久，德拉科才想起来。
Harry knew Dumbledore's mysterious secret, the one Snape used as his hold.
哈利知道邓布利多那个神秘的秘密——斯内普攥着它，才拿得住邓布利多。
Draco could just see it now. Dumbledore looking all stern, concealing his eagerness as he explained to Harry what a terribly serious matter this was.
德拉科现在能想象出那副场面了。邓布利多板着脸，把心里的急切藏起来，一边向哈利说明这是件多么严重的事。
And Harry politely telling Dumbledore to keep his mouth shut if he knew what was good for him.
而哈利客客气气地跟邓布利多讲，为了他自个儿好，最好还是把嘴闭上。
Father had warned Draco against people like this, people who could ruin you and still be so likable that it was hard to hate them properly.
父亲早就提醒过德拉科，要提防这样的人——他们能把你毁掉，同时又讨人喜欢得让你没法好好恨他们。
"After which," Harry said, "the Headmaster told Professor Flitwick that this was, indeed, a secret and delicate matter of which he had already been informed, and that he did not think pressing it at this time would help me or anyone. Professor Flitwick started to say something about the Headmaster's usual plotting going much too far, and I had to interrupt at that point and explain that it had been my own idea and not anything the Headmaster forced me into, so Professor Flitwick spun around and started lecturing me, and the Headmaster interrupted him and said that as the Boy-Who-Lived I was doomed to have weird and dangerous adventures so I was safer if I got into them on purpose instead of waiting for them to happen by accident, and that was when Professor Flitwick threw up his little hands and started shrieking in a high-pitched voice at both of us about how he didn't care what we were cooking up together, but this wasn't ever to happen again for as long as I was in Ravenclaw House or he would have me thrown out and I could go to Gryffindor which was where all this Dumbledoring belonged -"
「接下来，」哈利说，「校长跟弗立维教授讲，这件事确实是机密又微妙的，他早就得知了，而且他觉得眼下揪着不放，不管对我还是对别人都没有好处。弗立维教授就开始念叨，说校长平日里盘算的那一套这回也太过分了；我只好插话解释，这件事是我自己拿的主意，校长并没逼我。于是弗立维教授转过身来，开始教训我；校长又打断他，说我身为大难不死的男孩，注定总要撞上古怪又危险的冒险，那我不如主动去闯，总比等它们自己意外发生更安全。弗立维教授就在这时候把他那两只小手一甩，冲着我们俩尖着嗓子喊，说他才不管我们俩私下里捣鼓什么，可只要我还在拉文克劳一天，这种事就绝不能再有第二回，否则他就把我轰出去，我大可以去格兰芬多——这种邓布利多式的勾当，正该发生在那里——」
Harry was making it very hard for Draco to hate him.
哈利这么做，弄得德拉科想恨他都非常难。
"Anyway," Harry said, "I didn't want to be thrown out of Ravenclaw, so I promised Professor Flitwick that nothing like this would happen again, and if it did, I would just tell him who did it."
「反正，」哈利说，「我不想被赶出拉文克劳，就答应弗立维教授，这种事不会再出第二次；真要有，我就告诉他是谁动的手。」
Harry's eyes should have been cold. They weren't. The voice should have made it a deadly threat. It wasn't.
哈利的眼神本该是冷的——可它一点也不冷。他的语气本该把那句话变成一记要命的威胁——可它一点也不像。
And Draco saw the question that should have been obvious, and it killed the mood in an instant.
德拉科想到了那个本该明摆着的疑问——气氛一下子全没了。
"Why... didn't you?"
「你……为什么不说？」
Harry walked over to the window, into the small beam of sunlight shining into the alcove, and turned his head outward, toward the green grounds of Hogwarts. The brightness shone on him, on his robes, on his face.
哈利走到窗前，站进那束照进壁龛的细细阳光里，把头转向窗外，望向霍格沃茨的绿地。亮光落在他身上，落在他的袍子上，也落在他的脸上。
"Why didn't I?" Harry said. His voice caught. "I guess because I just couldn't get angry at you. I knew I'd hurt you first. I won't even call it fair, because what I did to you was worse than what you did to me."
「我为什么不说？」哈利说。他的声音哽了一下。「大概是……我对你根本气不起来。我清楚，先伤人的人是我。我甚至不打算说这算扯平——我对你做的事，比你对我做的更过分。」
It was like running into another brick wall. Harry could have been speaking archaic Greek for all Draco understood him then.
这又像一头撞在砖墙上。哈利那会儿说的话，德拉科听在耳朵里，跟听古希腊语没什么两样。
Draco's mind scrabbled for patterns and came up flat blank. The statement was a concession that hadn't been in Harry's best interests. It wasn't even what Harry should say to make Draco a more loyal servant, now that Harry held power over him. For that Harry should be emphasizing how kindly he'd been, not how much he'd hurt Draco.
德拉科在脑子里翻找能说得通的规律，结果一片空白。那番话是一种让步，而且对哈利自己毫无好处——如今哈利完全拿捏得住他，就算想让德拉科变成更忠心的仆从，也不该挑这种话说。要收服人心，该强调的是自己有多宽厚，而不是把德拉科伤得有多重。
"Even so," Harry said, and now his voice was lower, almost a whisper, "please don't do that again, Draco. It hurt, and I'm not sure I could forgive you a second time. I'm not sure I'd be able to want to."
「就算这样，」哈利说，声音低了下去，几乎成了耳语，「也请你别再那么做了，德拉科。那次很疼，而且我不确定自己还能不能再原谅你一回。我甚至不确定自己还会不会想原谅你。」
Draco just didn't get it.
德拉科根本弄不明白。
Was Harry trying to be friends with him?
哈利难道是……想跟他做朋友？
There was no way Harry Potter could be dumb enough to believe that was still possible after what he'd done.
哈利·波特做了那种事之后，绝不可能蠢到以为他们两个人还能做朋友。
You could be someone's friend and ally, like Draco had tried to do with Harry, or you could destroy their life and leave them no other options. Not both.
你可以既做某人的朋友，又做他的盟友——德拉科对哈利就是这么打算的；你也可以把对方的人生彻底毁掉，让他没有别的路可选。但这两样不可能一起要。
But then Draco didn't understand what else Harry could be trying.
可要是这样，德拉科就实在想不出哈利除此之外还能图谋什么了。
And a strange thought came to Draco then, something Harry had kept talking about yesterday.
这时，一个古怪的念头钻进德拉科脑子里，那是哈利昨天反复念叨过的。
And the thought was: Test it.
那个念头是：试一下。
You're awakened as a scientist now, Harry had said, and even if you never learn to use your power, you'll always, be looking, for ways, to test, your beliefs... Those ominous words, spoken in gasps of agony, had kept running through Draco's mind.
*你现在已经觉醒成一名科学家了，*哈利说过，*哪怕你永远学不会怎么用自己的力量，你也总会一直、在找、办法、去检验、你的信念……*那些在剧痛中喘着气吐出来的不祥字句，一直在德拉科脑子里打转。
If Harry was pretending to be the repentant friend who had accidentally hurt someone...
如果说，哈利真的是在假扮一个不小心伤了人、为此后悔的朋友……
"You planned what you did to me!" Draco said, managing to put a note of accusation in his voice. "You didn't do it because you got angry, you did it because you wanted to!"
「你对我做的事，是早有预谋的！」德拉科说，硬是让声音里多了一丝指责的味道。「那不是你气头上做出来的，是你想做才做的！」
Fool, Harry Potter would say, of course I planned it, and now you're mine -
*蠢货，*哈利·波特会说，我当然早就算计好了，现在你是我的了——
Harry turned back toward Draco. "What happened yesterday wasn't the plan," Harry said, his voice seeming stuck in his throat. "The plan was that I would teach you why you were always better off knowing the truth, and then we would try together to discover the truth about blood, and whatever the answer was we would accept it. Yesterday I... rushed things."
哈利转回身，面朝德拉科。「昨天的事不是计划里的，」哈利说，声音像是堵在喉咙里。「计划是我要教你，为什么知道真相总比蒙在鼓里强，然后我们一起去弄清血统的真相，不管答案是什么，都接受它。昨天我……急了。」
"Always better off knowing the truth," Draco said coldly. "Like you did me a favor."
「『知道真相总比蒙在鼓里强』，」德拉科冷冷地说。「说得好像你对我有恩似的。」
Harry nodded, blowing Draco's mind completely, and said, "What if Lucius comes up with the same idea I did, that the problem is stronger wizards having fewer children? He might start a program to pay the strongest purebloods to have more children. In fact, if blood purism were right, that's just what Lucius should be doing - addressing the problem on his side, where he can make things happen right away. Right now, Draco, you're the only friend Lucius has who would try to stop him from wasting the effort, because you're the only one who knows the real truth and can predict the real results."
哈利点了点头——这一下把德拉科的脑子彻底震懵了——然后说：「要是卢修斯也想到了跟我一样的念头：问题出在强大的巫师生的孩子太少，那会怎么样？他可能会办个项目，出钱让最强的那些纯血统巫师多生孩子。其实，如果血统论真的成立，卢修斯就该这么做——从他自己那头下手解决问题，毕竟他那边才能立刻见效。德拉科，现在卢修斯的朋友里，只有你会去拦着他，不让他白费这份力气，因为只有你知道真正的真相，也只有你猜得出真正的结果。」
The thought came to Draco that Harry Potter had been raised in a place so strange that he was now effectively a magical creature rather than a wizard. Draco simply couldn't guess what Harry would say or do next.
德拉科心里又冒出一个念头：哈利·波特长大的那个地方实在太古怪，弄得他现在与其说是巫师，不如说更像个魔法生物。哈利接下来会说什么、会做什么，德拉科一点都猜不出来。
"Why? " Draco said. Putting pain and betrayal into his voice wasn't hard at all. "Why did you do this to me? What was your plan?"
「为什么？」德拉科说。要让声音里带上痛苦和被背叛的意味，一点也不费劲。「你为什么对我做这种事？你的计划到底是什么？」
"Well," Harry said, "you're Lucius's heir, and believe it or not, Dumbledore thinks I belong to him. So we could grow up and fight their battles with each other. Or we could do something else."
「这个嘛，」哈利说，「你是卢修斯的继承人。信不信由你，邓布利多把我算在他自己那边。所以我们大可以长大以后替他们接着打，你我对上。或者，也可以做点别的。」
Slowly, Draco's mind wrapped around this. "You want to provoke a fight to the finish between them, then seize power after they're both exhausted." Draco felt cold dread in his chest. He would have to try and stop that no matter the cost to himself -
德拉科慢慢琢磨过味来。「你想挑起他们俩拼个你死我活，等两边都耗光了，再出来夺权。」德拉科只觉得一股冰冷的恐惧爬上胸口。不管自己要付出什么代价，他都必须去拦这件事——
But Harry shook his head. "Stars above, no! "
可哈利偏偏摇了摇头。「苍天在上，根本不是！」
"No...?"
「不是……？」
"You wouldn't go along with that and neither would I," said Harry. "This is our world, we don't want to break it. But imagine, say, Lucius thought the Conspiracy was your tool and you were on his side, Dumbledore thought the Conspiracy was my tool and I was on his side, Lucius thought that you'd turned me and Dumbledore believed the Conspiracy was mine, Dumbledore thought that I'd turned you and Lucius believed the Conspiracy was yours, and so they both helped us out but only in ways that the other one wouldn't notice."
「你不会跟着干那种事，我也不会，」哈利说。「这世界是我们的，我们不想把它毁掉。可你不妨设想一下：比如说，卢修斯以为贝叶斯阴谋是你的工具，而你站在他那边；邓布利多以为那个阴谋是我的工具，我站在他那边；卢修斯以为是你把我拉了过去，邓布利多相信那个阴谋是我的；邓布利多以为是我把你拉了过去，卢修斯相信那个阴谋是你的——于是他们俩都会帮我们，只不过帮的方式都是对方察觉不到的。」
Draco did not have to fake being speechless.
这一回，德拉科不用装就已经说不出话了。
Father had once taken him to see a play called The Tragedy of Light, about this incredibly clever Slytherin named Light who'd set out to purify the world of evil using an ancient ring that could kill anyone whose name and face he knew, and who'd been opposed by another incredibly clever Slytherin, a villain named Lawliet, who'd worn a disguise to conceal his true face; and Draco had shouted and cheered at all the right parts, especially in the middle; and then the play had ended sadly and Draco had been hugely disappointed and Father had gently pointed out that the word 'Tragedy' was right there in the title.
父亲以前带他去看过一出戏，叫《光之悲剧》，讲的是一个极其聪明的斯莱特林学生，名叫 Light，他想用一枚古老的戒指把世界上的邪恶清除干净——那枚戒指能杀死任何他知道名字和长相的人；戏里另有一个同样聪明得可怕的斯莱特林学生跟他作对，是个叫 Lawliet 的反派，一直戴着伪装，遮住自己真实的脸。该喝彩的地方德拉科都大声喊好，尤其是演到中间那一段；可戏的结局很惨，德拉科失望极了，父亲便温和地提醒他：剧名里明明白白就写着「悲剧」两个字。
Afterward, Father had asked Draco if he understood why they had gone to see this play.
散场之后，父亲问德拉科，知不知道今天为什么要来看这出戏。
Draco had said it was to teach him to be as cunning as Light and Lawliet when he grew up.
德拉科说，是为了让他长大以后能像 Light 和 Lawliet 那样精明。
Father had said that Draco couldn't possibly be more wrong, and pointed out that while Lawliet had cleverly concealed his face there had been no good reason for him to tell Light his name. Father had then gone on to demolish almost every part of the play, while Draco listened with his eyes growing wider and wider. And Father had finished by saying that plays like this were always unrealistic, because if the playwright had known what someone actually as smart as Light would actually do, the playwright would have tried to take over the world himself instead of just writing plays about it.
父亲说他错得不能再错，并且指出，Lawliet 虽然很聪明地藏起了自己的脸，可他没有半点理由把自己的名字告诉 Light。接着父亲几乎把这出戏的每一处都批了个遍，德拉科听着，眼睛越睁越大。最后父亲说，这样的戏从来都不真实——写剧本的人要是清楚一个真正像 Light 那么聪明的人到底会怎么做，那他自己早就去统治世界了，犯不着只写剧本讲这件事。
That was when Father had told Draco about the Rule of Three, which was that any plot which required more than three different things to happen would never work in real life.
父亲就是在那次告诉德拉科三的规则的：任何一个计划，只要需要三件以上的事情发生才能成立，放到现实里就绝无可能成功。
Father had further explained that since only a fool would attempt a plot that was as complicated as possible, the real limit was two.
父亲进一步说明过：既然只有傻瓜才会去搞一个尽可能复杂的计划，那真正的上限其实只有两件。
Draco couldn't even find words to describe the sheer gargantuan unworkability of Harry's master plan.
哈利的宏大计划有多庞大、多行不通，德拉科连一个词都找不出来形容。
But it was just the sort of mistake you would make if you didn't have any mentors and thought you were clever and had learned about plotting by watching plays.
可要是你没有导师，又自以为聪明，权谋全是从戏里看来的，那你犯的正是这种错。
"So," said Harry, "what do you think of the plan?"
「那么，」哈利说，「这个计划你觉得怎么样？」
"It's clever..." Draco said slowly. Shouting brilliant! and gasping in awe would have looked too suspicious. "Harry, can I ask a question?"
「挺高明的……」德拉科慢吞吞地说。这时候大喊一声太精彩了、再一脸敬畏地倒吸一口气，那也太可疑了。「哈利，我能问个问题吗？」
"Sure," said Harry.
「可以啊，」哈利说。
"Why did you buy Granger an expensive pouch?"
「你干吗要给格兰杰买一个那么贵的莫克皮袋？」
"To show no hard feelings," said Harry at once. "Though I expect she'll also feel awkward if she refuses any small requests I make over the next couple of months."
「表示没有芥蒂。」哈利脱口答道。「不过我猜，往后一两个月里，我要是提点什么小请求，她拒绝了也会觉得不自在。」
And that was when Draco realized that Harry actually was trying to be his friend.
就在这时候，德拉科明白了：哈利真的是想跟他交朋友。
Harry's move against Granger had been smart, maybe even brilliant. Make your enemy not suspect you, and put them into your debt in a friendly way so that you could maneuver them into position just by asking them. Draco couldn't have gotten away with that, his target would have been too suspicious, but the Boy-Who-Lived could. So the first step of Harry's plot was to give his enemy an expensive present, Draco wouldn't have thought of that, but it could work...__
哈利对格兰杰这一手确实高明，说不定还称得上漂亮。让你的敌人不怀疑你，又用一副友好的样子让对方欠你一份人情，这样你以后要调遣他，只要开口就行。这种事换成德拉科，本来也蒙不过去——他要下手的那个人早就起疑了；可大难不死的男孩办得到。哈利这盘棋的头一步，就是给对手送上一份贵重礼物——这一点德拉科绝不会想到，可它说不定真能成……
If you were Harry's enemy, his plots might be hard to see through at first, they might even be stupid, but his reasoning would make sense once you understood it, you would comprehend that he was trying to hurt you.
你要是哈利的敌人，他的算计起初也许很难看穿，甚至可能显得很蠢；可等你想通了，他的道理就讲得通了——你会明白，他是在想法子伤你。
The way Harry was acting toward Draco right now did not make sense.
可哈利现在对待德拉科的这副样子，就是根本说不通。
Because if you were Harry's friend, then he tried to be friends with you in the alien, incomprehensible way he'd been raised by Muggles to do, even if it meant destroying your entire life.
因为如果你是哈利的朋友，他就会用那种古怪得让人看不懂的方式跟你交朋友——那是他被麻瓜养大时学来的方式——哪怕这么做的代价是毁掉你的一辈子。
The silence stretched.
沉默拖得越来越长。
"I know that I've abused our friendship terribly," Harry said finally. "But please realize, Draco, that in the end, I just wanted the two of us to find the truth together. Is that something you can forgive?"
「我知道我把我们之间的交情滥用得太狠了。」哈利终于开口了。「可是德拉科，你要明白，到头来我只是想让我们两个一起把真相找出来。这一点，你能原谅我吗？」
A fork with two paths, but with only one path easy to go back on later if Draco changed his mind...
一个岔路口，两条路可走，可将来德拉科要是改了主意，只有一条路是好回头的……
"I guess I understand what you were trying to do," Draco lied, "so yes."
「我想我大致明白你想做什么。」德拉科撒了个谎，「所以，能。」
Harry's eyes lit up. "I'm glad to hear that, Draco," he said softly.
哈利眼睛一下子亮了。「听你这么说我很高兴，德拉科。」他轻声说。
The two students stood in that alcove, Harry still dipped in the lone sunbeam, Draco in shadow.
两个学生就这样站在那个壁龛里，哈利仍浸在那一道孤零零的阳光里，德拉科在阴影中。
And Draco realized with a note of horror and despair, that although it was a terrifying fate indeed to be Harry's friend, Harry now had so many different avenues for threatening Draco that being his enemy would be even worse.
德拉科心里泛起一丝恐惧和绝望，同时明白了：给哈利当朋友固然是可怕的命运，可哈利现在能用来威胁他的路子太多了，这么算下来，给哈利当敌人只会更糟。
Probably.
大概吧。
Maybe.
也许吧。
Well, he could always switch to being enemies later...
再说，以后改回跟他当敌人也来得及……
He was doomed.
他完了。
"So," Draco said. "Now what?"
「那么，」德拉科说，「现在做什么？」
"We study again next Saturday?"
「下周六接着上课？」哈利说。
"It better not go like the last one -"
「最好别跟上回一样——」
"Don't worry, it won't," said Harry. "A few more Saturdays like that and you'd be ahead of me."
「别担心，不会了，」哈利说。「再来几个那样的周六，你就超过我了。」
Harry laughed. Draco didn't.
哈利笑了。德拉科没笑。
"Oh, and before you go," Harry said, and grinned sheepishly. "I know this is a bad time, but I wanted to ask you for advice about something, actually."
「哦，还有，趁你还没走，」哈利说，笑得有点不好意思。「我知道现在说这个不是时候，不过其实我一直想问你件事，想听听你的主意。」
"Okay," Draco said, still a bit distracted by that last statement.
「行，」德拉科说，脑子还惦记着哈利刚才那句话。
Harry's eyes grew intent. "Buying that pouch for Granger used up most of the gold I managed to steal from my Gringotts vault -"
哈利的眼神变得专注起来。「给格兰杰买那个莫克皮袋，我从古灵阁金库偷出来的金子，大半都花在它上面了——」
What.
什么。
"- and McGonagall has the vault key, or Dumbledore does now, maybe. And I was just about to launch a plot that might take some money, so I was wondering if you know how I can get access -"
「——金库钥匙在麦格教授手上，也可能现在已经到了邓布利多手上。我正打算启动一个计划，说不定要花些钱，所以想问问你，知不知道我怎么才能动用那笔钱——」
"I'll loan you the money," said Draco's mouth in sheer existential reflex.
「钱我借你，」说这话的是德拉科的嘴，纯粹出于一种存在主义的本能。
Harry looked taken aback, but in a pleased way. "Draco, you don't have to -"
哈利愣了一下，但愣得挺高兴。「德拉科，你不用——」
"How much?"
「多少？」
Harry named the amount and Draco couldn't quite keep the shock from showing on his face. That was almost all the spending money Father had given Draco to last out the whole year, Draco would be left with just a few Galleons -
哈利报了个数目，德拉科差点没压住脸上的震惊。那几乎是父亲给他的全部零花钱，本该够他花满一整年，这一借出去，他手里就只剩几个加隆了——
Then Draco mentally kicked himself. All he had to do was write Father and explain that the money was gone because he had managed to loan it to Harry Potter, and Father would send him a special congratulatory note written in golden ink, a giant Chocolate Frog that would take two weeks to eat, and ten times as many Galleons just in case Harry Potter needed another loan.
接着德拉科在心里踹了自己一脚。他要做的只是给父亲寄一封信，说钱花光了，原因是他成功地把钱借给了哈利·波特。父亲收到信，准会回他一张用金色墨水写的、专门道贺的字条，一只够吃两个星期的巨型巧克力蛙，外加十倍数量的加隆，以防哈利·波特还需要再借一笔。
"It's way too much, isn't it," said Harry. "I'm sorry, I shouldn't have asked -"
「这数目太大了，是不是，」哈利说。「抱歉，我本来就不该开口——」
"Excuse me, I am a Malfoy, you know," said Draco. "I was just surprised you wanted that much."
「劳驾，我可是马尔福家的人，」德拉科说。「我只是一时没想到你要借那么多。」
"Don't worry," Harry Potter said cheerfully. "It's nothing that threatens your family's interests, just me being evil."
「别担心，」哈利·波特挺开心地说。「这事不碍你家什么，只是我自己要使坏而已。」
Draco nodded. "No problem, then. You want to go get it right now?"
德拉科点点头。「那就没问题了。你现在就去取吗？」
"Sure," said Harry.
「好，」哈利说。
As they left the alcove and started heading toward the dungeons, Draco couldn't help but ask, "So can you tell me which plot this is for?"
两人出了壁龛，往地牢方向走，德拉科还是忍不住问：「那么，这笔钱是为哪个计划借的，你能告诉我吗？」
"Rita Skeeter."
「丽塔·斯基特。」
Draco thought some very bad words to himself, but it was far too late to say no.
德拉科在心里骂了一串很难听的话，可这时候反悔已经太晚了。
By the time they'd reached the dungeons, Draco had started pulling together his thoughts again.
走到地牢的时候，德拉科的心思已经重新聚拢起来了。
He was having trouble hating Harry Potter. Harry had been trying to be friendly, he was just insane.
他真的恨不起来哈利·波特。哈利确实是想跟他友好相处，他只是疯了。
And that wasn't going to stop Draco's revenge or even slow it down.
可这拦不住德拉科的复仇，连拖慢一点都做不到。
"So," Draco said, after looking around to make certain no one was nearby. Their voices would both be Blurred, of course, but it never hurt to be extra sure. "I've been thinking. When we bring new recruits into the Conspiracy, they're going to have to think we're equals. Otherwise it would only take one of them to blow the plot to Father. You already worked that out, right?"
德拉科先四下看了看，确认附近没人。当然，他们俩说话时都罩着模糊咒，可多确认一遍总没坏处。他这才开口：「那么，我一直在琢磨。等我们招新人进贝叶斯阴谋，新人得以为我们是平起平坐的。不然的话，他们里头只要有一个人把这事捅给父亲，整个计划就完了。这一点，你已经想明白了吧？」
"Naturally," said Harry.
「那还用说，」哈利说。
"Will we be equals?" said Draco.
「我们真的会平起平坐吗？」德拉科说。
"I'm afraid not," Harry said. It was clear that he was trying to sound gentle, and also clear that he was trying to suppress a good deal of condescension and not quite succeeding. "I'm sorry, Draco, but you don't even know what the word Bayesian in Bayesian Conspiracy means right now. You're going to have to study for months before we take anyone else in, just so you can put up a good front."
「恐怕不会，」哈利说。很明显，他在尽量把语气放温和；同样明显的是，他正努力压着一股优越感，压得却不太成功。「对不起，德拉科，可现在你连贝叶斯阴谋里的贝叶斯是什么意思都不知道。在我们拉别人进来之前，你得先学上好几个月，才撑得起一个像样的门面。」
"Because I don't know enough science," Draco said, carefully keeping his voice neutral.
「因为我科学知识不够，」德拉科说，小心地把声音压得平平的。
Harry shook his head at that. "The problem isn't that you're ignorant of specific science things like deoxyribonucleic acid. That wouldn't stop you from being my equal. The problem is that you aren't trained in the methods of rationality, the deeper secret knowledge behind how all those discoveries got made in the first place. I'll try to teach you those, but they're a lot harder to learn. Think of what we did yesterday, Draco. Yes, you did some of the work. But I was the only one in control. You answered some of the questions. I asked all of them. You helped push. I did the steering by myself. And without the methods of rationality, Draco, you can't possibly steer the Conspiracy where it needs to go."
哈利听了摇摇头。「问题不在于你不懂脱氧核糖核酸这类具体的科学知识。这不会妨碍你跟我平起平坐。问题在于你没受过理性方法的训练——那些发现最初究竟怎么被做出来，背后那一层更深的秘密，才是关键。我会试着教你，可这些要难学得多。想想昨天我们做的事，德拉科。没错，你出了一部分力。可从头到尾掌控的人只有我。你回答了一些问题，可问题全是我问的。你帮着往前推，掌舵的一直是我自己。而没有理性方法，德拉科，你根本不可能把贝叶斯阴谋带到它该去的方向。」
"I see," said Draco, his voice sounding disappointed.
「我明白了，」德拉科说，语气里透出失望。
Harry's voice tried to gentle itself even more. "I'll try to respect your expertise, Draco, about things like people stuff. But you need to respect my expertise too, and there's just no way you could be my equal when it comes to steering the Conspiracy. You've only been a scientist for one day, you know one secret about deoxyribonucleic acid, and you aren't trained in any of the methods of rationality."
哈利努力让语气再柔和一点。「德拉科，像跟人打交道这类事，我会尽量尊重你的专长。可你也得尊重我的专长，而在给贝叶斯阴谋掌舵这件事上，你跟我根本不可能平等。你当科学家才一天，脱氧核糖核酸的秘密你只知道一条，理性方法你连一门都没学过。」
"I understand," said Draco.
「我懂，」德拉科说。
And he did.
他确实是懂了。
People stuff, Harry had said. Seizing control of the Conspiracy probably wouldn't even be difficult. And afterward, he would kill Harry Potter just to be sure -
*跟人打交道的事，*哈利这么说过。夺取贝叶斯阴谋的控制权，说不定根本不算难事。而在这之后，为了保险，他会杀掉哈利·波特——
The memory rose up in Draco of how sick inside it had felt last night, knowing Harry was screaming.
德拉科想起了昨晚——知道哈利正在尖叫的时候，他心里那种绞成一团的难受。
Draco thought some more bad words.
德拉科又在心里骂了几句更难听的。
Fine. He wouldn't kill Harry. Harry had been raised by Muggles, it wasn't his fault he was insane.
行吧。他不杀哈利了。哈利是麻瓜养大的，疯成这样怪不得他。
Instead, Harry would live on, just so that Draco could tell him that it had all been for Harry's own good, really, he ought to be grateful -
反过来，他要让哈利活着——这样德拉科才能亲口告诉他，这一切全是为他好，真的，他该心怀感激才是——
And with a sudden twitch of surprised pleasure, Draco realized that it actually was for Harry's own good. If Harry tried to carry out his plan of playing Dumbledore and Father for fools, he would die.
德拉科心头忽然一动，涌起一阵意外的快意：他发现，这件事确实是为了哈利自己好。哈利要是真按自己的计划去办，把邓布利多和父亲当傻子耍，他就死定了。
That made it perfect.
这样一来就十全十美了。
Draco would take all of Harry's dreams away from him, just as Harry had done to him.
德拉科要把哈利的全部梦想都拿走，跟哈利当初对他做的一样。
Draco would tell Harry that it had been for his own good, and it would be absolutely true.
德拉科会对哈利说，这都是为了他自己好，而这话一点不假。
Draco would wield the Conspiracy and the power of science to purify the wizarding world, and Father would be as proud of him as if he'd been a Death Eater.
德拉科要用贝叶斯阴谋和科学的力量净化巫师界，父亲会为他骄傲，就像他当上了食死徒一样。
Harry Potter's evil plots would be foiled, and the forces of right would prevail.
哈利·波特的邪恶计划会落空，正义的一方会取胜。
The perfect revenge.
完美的复仇。
Unless...
除非……
Just pretend to be pretending to be a scientist, Harry had told him.
*只管假装自己在假装当科学家，*哈利这么跟他说过。
Draco didn't have words to describe exactly what was wrong with Harry's mind -
德拉科说不出哈利的脑子到底哪里不对劲——
(since Draco had never heard the term depth of recursion)
（因为德拉科从没听说过递归深度这个词）
- but he could guess what sort of plots it implied.
——但他猜得到，这会引出什么样的算计。
...unless all that was exactly what Harry wanted Draco to do as part of some even larger plot which Draco would play right into by trying to foil this one, Harry might even know that his plan was unworkable, it might have no purpose except luring Draco to thwart it -
……除非这一整套正是哈利想要德拉科去做的，是某个更大计划的一部分，而德拉科要是去拆眼下这个计划的台，就正好一步步走进那个局里；哈利甚至可能知道自己的计划根本行不通，那个计划也许只有一个用处：把德拉科引过来阻挠——
No. That way lay madness. There had to be a limit. The Dark Lord himself hadn't been that twisty. That sort of thing didn't happen in real life, only in Father's silly bedtime stories about foolish gargoyles who always ended up furthering the hero's plans every time they tried to stop him.
不行。照这条路想下去就是发疯。总得有个限度。黑魔王本人也没那么绕。这种事在现实生活里不会发生，只存在于父亲那些无聊的睡前故事里：故事里有一群蠢石像鬼，每次想拦住主角，最后反倒帮主角把计划往前推进了一步。
And beside Draco, Harry walked along with a smile on his face, thinking about the evolutionary origins of human intelligence.
而在德拉科身边，哈利脸上挂着笑往前走，脑子里想的是人类智能的进化起源。
In the beginning, before people had quite understood how evolution worked, they'd gone around thinking crazy ideas like human intelligence evolved so that we could invent better tools.
起初，在人们还没真正弄懂进化是怎么回事的时候，大家抱着的都是一些荒唐念头，比如人类智能之所以进化出来，是为了让我们能发明更好的工具。
The reason why this was crazy was that only one person in the tribe had to invent a tool, and then everyone else would use it, and it would spread to other tribes, and still be used by their descendants a hundred years later. That was great from the perspective of scientific progress, but in evolutionary terms, it meant that the person who invented something didn't have much of a fitness advantage, didn't have all that many more children than everyone else. Only relative fitness advantages could increase the relative frequency of a gene in the population, and drive some lonely mutation to the point where it was universal and everyone had it. And brilliant inventions just weren't common enough to provide the sort of consistent selection pressure it took to promote a mutation. It was a natural guess, if you looked at humans with their guns and tanks and nuclear weapons and compared them to chimpanzees, that the intelligence was there to make the technology. A natural guess, but wrong.
这说法荒唐的地方在于：一个部落里只要有一个人发明了工具，别人就都会拿去用，还会传到别的部落去，一百年后他们的后代照样在用。从科学进步的角度看这当然很好，可在进化的意义上，这意味着发明者并没占到多少繁衍上的优势，孩子也不比旁人多几个。只有相对的优势才能提高某个基因在人群里的出现频率，才能把某个孤零零的突变推到人人都有、变成普遍特征的地步。而了不起的发明出现得太少，撑不起推动一个突变所需的那种持续不断的选择压力。看看人类手里的枪、坦克和核武器，再把人跟黑猩猩比一比，自然会猜智能的存在就是为了造出技术。猜得很自然，但是错了。
Before people had quite understood how evolution worked, they'd gone around thinking crazy ideas like the climate changed, and tribes had to migrate, and people had to become smarter in order to solve all the novel problems.
在人们还没真正弄懂进化是怎么回事的时候，还流行过另一种荒唐念头：气候变了，部落只好迁徙，人必须变得更聪明，才能应付这些全新的问题。
But human beings had four times the brain size of a chimpanzee. 20% of a human's metabolic energy went into feeding the brain. Humans were ridiculously smarter than any other species. That sort of thing didn't happen because the environment stepped up the difficulty of its problems a little. Then the organisms would just get a little smarter to solve them. Ending up with that gigantic outsized brain must have taken some sort of runaway evolutionary process, something that would push and push without limits.
可人类的大脑体积是黑猩猩的四倍。人体新陈代谢的能量有 20% 都拿去供养大脑。人类比其他任何物种都聪明得离谱。这种事不会因为环境把题目的难度调高一点点就发生——那样的话，生物只要稍微变聪明一点就能把题解了。最后能长出那么一颗大得离谱的脑子，一定是经过了某种失控的进化过程，一种会不停往前推、推起来没有上限的东西。
And today's scientists had a pretty good guess at what that runaway evolutionary process had been.
而今天的科学家对这场失控的进化过程究竟是怎么回事，已经有了相当靠谱的猜测。
Harry had once read a famous book called Chimpanzee Politics. The book had described how an adult chimpanzee named Luit had confronted the aging alpha, Yeroen, with the help of a young, recently matured chimpanzee named Nikkie. Nikkie had not intervened directly in the fights between Luit and Yeroen, but had prevented Yeroen's other supporters in the tribe from coming to his aid, distracting them whenever a confrontation developed between Luit and Yeroen. And in time Luit had won, and become the new alpha, with Nikkie as the second most powerful...
哈利读过一本名著，名叫《黑猩猩的政治》。书里讲了一只叫鲁伊特的成年黑猩猩，在一只刚成年不久的年轻黑猩猩尼基的帮忙下，向上了年纪的首领叶鲁恩发难。尼基没有直接卷进鲁伊特和叶鲁恩两边的打斗，而是拦住了叶鲁恩在群体里的其他支持者，不让他们过去帮忙：只要鲁伊特和叶鲁恩对上，他就把那些人的注意力引开。后来鲁伊特赢了，当上新的首领，尼基则成了势力第二大的……
...though it hadn't taken very long after that for Nikkie to form an alliance with the defeated Yeroen, overthrow Luit, and become the new new alpha.
……可没过多久，尼基就拉上被打败的叶鲁恩结成同盟，推翻鲁伊特，自己成了新的新首领。
It really made you appreciate what millions of years of hominids trying to outwit each other - an evolutionary arms race without limit - had led to in the way of increased mental capacity.
这真让人不得不叹服：几百万年间人科动物彼此斗智——一场没有上限的进化军备竞赛——把脑力推到了什么地步。
'Cause, y'know, a human would have totally seen that one coming.
因为——你也知道——这种事换成人来，早就一眼看穿了。
And beside Harry, Draco walked along, suppressing his smile as he thought about his revenge.
而在哈利身边，德拉科压着嘴角的笑意往前走，心里想着自己的复仇。
Someday, maybe in years but someday, Harry Potter would learn just what it meant to underestimate a Malfoy.
总有一天——也许是几年以后，但总会有那么一天——哈利·波特会明白，小看一个马尔福意味着什么。
Draco had awakened as a scientist in a single day. Harry had said that wasn't supposed to happen for months.
德拉科只用一天就成了科学家。按哈利的说法，这事本该要过上几个月才可能发生。
But of course if you were a Malfoy, you would be a more powerful scientist than anyone who wasn't.
可你要是个马尔福，那当然会是个比所有不是马尔福的人都更强的科学家。
So Draco would learn all of Harry Potter's methods of rationality, and then when the time was ripe -
所以德拉科要把哈利·波特那套理性方法全学到手，然后等时机成熟——
梗与典故
- 章首的题记是一首现成诗，只被换掉了一个词。 原文出自 Steven Brust 的德拉盖拉系列，诗名《德拉盖拉轮回》（The Cycle of Dragaera），一行写一个家族，其中相邻的这两行是 Yendi coils and strikes, unseen / Orca circles, hard and lean。本书把开头的 Yendi 换成了 J. K. Rowling，其余一字未动。Yendi 正是这套小说里以精于暗中布局、极难察觉著称的那一支，所以换过之后，这句诗说的事情就落到了写这本书的人身上。照字面去搜「Rowling coils and strikes」是搜不到原句的。作者没有解释过这句题记的来头，上面这层对应关系来自原诗和那套小说的设定。12
- 正文开头那行
Act 3:是作者自己写进小说的，不是全书的分幕。 全书一百二十二章没有幕的划分，带这类幕标记的只有这一章和下一章。它落在题记之后、被上下两条官方分隔线夹住，是作者写进正文里的，不是网站排版。为什么这么写，作者没有说明。3 - 「三的规则」是本书给卢修斯编的。 写作和修辞里通行的 rule of three 说的是三件一组更好记、更有效（《金发姑娘与三只熊》那一类），讲到计谋能有多复杂就到此为止；把上限压到三件事、再压到两件，都是本书自己加的。6
References
- 1The Cycle of Dragaera（原诗全文）
mindstalk.net
- 2Yendi（Dragaera Wiki，这个家族的设定）
dragaera.fandom.com
- 3HPMOR 官方第 24 章
hpmor.com
- 4Death Note（Wikipedia，含写名字须知道真名与长相这条规则）
en.wikipedia.org
- 5L (Death Note)（Wikipedia，角色的本名写作 L Lawliet）
en.wikipedia.org
- 6Rule of three (writing)（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 7Frans de Waal（Wikipedia，阿纳姆动物园的六年观察与 1982 年成书）
en.wikipedia.org
- 8Chimpanzee Politics 书评（复述叶鲁恩改与尼基结盟的那一步）
bonesandbioanth.com
- 9The Social Brain Hypothesis（Dunbar 1998, Evolutionary Anthropology，PDF）
cognitionandculture.net
- 10The social function of intellect（Humphrey 1976，存档 PDF）
web.archive.org
- 11Machiavellian intelligence hypothesis（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 12Lewis et al. 2017（PMC，递归式读心与意向性阶数，引 Dennett 1983）
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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