为什么一条线索会改变判断？
这期用原创寓言《雾灯与新钟》讲一个判断如何随新线索重新分配的问题。故事先让守灯人在旧海图和一声新钟之间选择航路，最后再揭示它对应的概念：贝叶斯更新。
来源
- Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: Bayes' Theorem
- Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: Bayesian Epistemology
- Encyclopaedia Britannica: Bayes's theorem
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