2026-08-13 22:30｜PPI持平，金银报价与美元收益率更新

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-13 22:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-13T06:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-13T14:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "bls-AUAG-20260813-ppi-july", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国 7 月 PPI 环比持平", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T12:30:00Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-13T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 100, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-13", "release_time_utc": "2026-08-13T12:30:00Z", "headline": "Producer Price Indexes - July 2026", "final_demand_mom_actual_percent": 0.0, "final_demand_mom_prior_percent": -0.1, "final_demand_mom_consensus_percent": 0.2, "final_demand_yoy_unadjusted_percent": 4.7, "final_demand_less_foods_energy_trade_services_mom_actual_percent": 0.4, "final_demand_less_foods_energy_trade_services_mom_prior_percent": 0.1, "final_demand_services_mom_percent": 0.2, "final_demand_goods_mom_percent": -0.7, "consensus_source": "Reuters；BLS 官方发布页未提供一致预期", "source_context": "BLS 称美国 7 月最终需求 PPI 季调环比持平，6 月为下降 0.1%；剔除食品、能源和贸易服务的最终需求价格上涨 0.4%，6 月上涨 0.1%。Reuters 报道市场预期最终需求 PPI 环比上涨 0.2%。" }, "transmission_chain": "PPI 环比 0.0%低于市场预期 0.2%→9 月加息压力边际减弱、非收益资产机会成本下降→AU 与 AG 获得正向利率传导", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国通胀或就业数据重新推高加息定价，或联储官员形成更强的紧缩共识时，本事件的利多传导失效", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08132026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08132026.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08132026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08132026.htm))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/us-producer-prices-unchanged-july-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-producer-prices-unchanged-july-2026-08-13/)](https://reuters.com/business/us-producer-prices-unchanged-july-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-producer-prices-unchanged-july-2026-08-13/))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260813-gold-silver-1326", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "现货金报 4386.69 美元，银报 65.11 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T13:48:20.536Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-13T13:26:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 97, "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-13", "spot_gold_quote_time_utc": "2026-08-13T13:26:00Z", "spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4386.69, "spot_gold_change_percent": -0.5, "spot_gold_session_low_usd_per_ounce": 4363.44, "us_gold_futures_usd_per_ounce": 4444.00, "us_gold_futures_change_percent": -0.5, "spot_silver_usd_per_ounce": 65.11, "spot_silver_change_percent": -0.3, "spot_silver_quote_time": "Reuters 正文未注明具体报价时刻", "comparison_prior_issue_spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4383.53, "comparison_prior_issue_spot_silver_usd_per_ounce": 65.09, "source_context": "Reuters 报道现货金在美国东部时间 09:26、即 13:26 GMT 报 4386.69 美元/盎司，跌 0.5%；盘中低点为 4363.44 美元/盎司；现货银报 65.11 美元/盎司，跌 0.3%。" }, "transmission_chain": "金银在前一轮上涨后继续承压、黄金盘中低至 4363.44 美元→短线获利了结与利率定价共同压制贵金属报价→AU 与 AG 日内方向转弱", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同一报价口径出现更晚且有效的价格状态，或金价重新收复 4500 美元并伴随银价同步反弹时，本次日内偏弱状态失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-pauses-after-tame-us-inflation-fuels-rally-over-two-month-peak-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-pauses-after-tame-us-inflation-fuels-rally-over-two-month-peak-2026-08-13/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-pauses-after-tame-us-inflation-fuels-rally-over-two-month-peak-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-pauses-after-tame-us-inflation-fuels-rally-over-two-month-peak-2026-08-13/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260813-dollar-30y-1426", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美元指数报 99.90，30 年收益率报 5.24%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T11:37:43.590Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 94, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-13", "dxy": 99.90, "dxy_change_percent": -0.08, "dxy_intraday_high": 100.08, "us_treasury_30y_yield_percent": 5.24, "us_treasury_30y_yield_change_basis_points": -1, "us_treasury_30y_prior_reference_percent": 5.2811, "us_treasury_30y_prior_reference_date": "2026-07-31", "comparison_prior_issue_dxy": 99.93, "source_context": "Reuters 更新的全球市场页记录美元指数下跌 0.08%至 99.90，盘中触及 100.08；美国 30 年期国债收益率下跌 1 个基点至 5.24%。页面未给出该行情的独立精确事件时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "美元指数较前期报价回落且 30 年期名义收益率下行→美元计价与远端利率约束边际减轻→AU 与 AG 获得轻微正向传导", "invalidation_conditions": "美元指数重新站上 100.08 并伴随 30 年期收益率上行时，本次偏多传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260813-oil-1137", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "油价报 87.30 美元并下跌约 2%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T11:37:43.590Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 91, "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": -1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-13", "oil_price_usd_per_barrel": 87.30, "oil_change_percent": -2.0, "price_benchmark": "Reuters 原文仅称 oil prices，未注明具体基准合约", "demand_context": "较弱需求信号对油价的压制超过伊朗和谈僵局带来的供给风险", "source_context": "Reuters 全球市场页称油价下跌约 2%至 87.30 美元/桶，较低需求信号超过伊朗和谈僵局的影响。页面未给出该报价的独立精确事件时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "油价下行且需求信号转弱→能源通胀与白银工业需求变量边际走弱、AU 方向受供给风险与避险因素对冲→AG 偏弱、AU 中性", "invalidation_conditions": "霍尔木兹供给中断扩大并重新主导油价，或全球需求预期回升推动油价反弹时，本次偏弱传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260813-hammack-1405", "event_type": "central_bank", "title": "Hammack 重申美联储应立即加息", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T14:05:07.478Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 91, "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-13", "speaker": "Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack", "policy_rate_range_percent": "3.50%-3.75%", "inflation_target_percent": 2.0, "current_inflation_description": "above 3%", "policy_statement": "认为美联储应立即加息，以抑制过快增长和投资，并让通胀更快回到 2%目标", "time_to_return_to_target_statement": "她质疑若回到 2%目标还需 another three or four years 是否可接受", "source_context": "Reuters 报道 Hammack 周四重申应立即加息；页面未给出讲话独立精确事件时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "联储官员重申立即加息且称通胀仍高于 3%→紧缩路径与实际利率预期上修→AU 与 AG 持有机会成本上升、方向偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "后续官方数据继续降温并压低加息定价，或联储公开立场转向维持利率不变时，本次鹰派传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/finance/fed-should-raise-rates-restrain-growth-inflation-hammack-says-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fed-should-raise-rates-restrain-growth-inflation-hammack-says-2026-08-13/)](https://reuters.com/business/finance/fed-should-raise-rates-restrain-growth-inflation-hammack-says-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fed-should-raise-rates-restrain-growth-inflation-hammack-says-2026-08-13/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮新增检查 BlackRock/iShares 基金数据下载接口，并复核 SPDR GLD 直达产品页和定向检索。接口没有提供带窗口内发布时间证据的 SLV 持仓变动字段；SLV 页面最新数据标为 2026 年 8 月 12 日，SPDR 页面关键持仓字段仍为 AWAITING，故未入流。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))", "[https://www.[blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual)](https://blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual))" ] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级、SHFE AU/AG 仓单与 SGE 出入库", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮新增核查 CME Notices 列表页，并复核 SHFE 公告入口、SGE 当日行情查询与延时行情；CME 页面未出现窗口内 COMEX 金银库存分级数字，SHFE 入口受人机识别限制，SGE 查询无当日数据且延时页只有价格，未取得库存、仓单或出入库数字。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html))", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-13&end_date=2026-08-13", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg" ] }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮复核美国财政部官方 CSV；最新行仍为 2026 年 8 月 12 日，5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 分别为 2.14%/2.26%/2.42%/2.78%/2.99%，没有 2026 年 8 月 13 日行，也没有能把 8 月 12 日数据发布时间定位到本窗口的证据，故未入流。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv))" ] } ] }