Bay Area housing: San Francisco up 14.9%, San Jose down 5.0%, and an $11.25 billion housing bond on the ballot

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.24% for the week ending October 29.1 That is down from 7.32% a week earlier and up from 6.17% a year ago. The 15-year average slipped to 6.60% from 6.68%.

On San Francisco's median sale price of $1,579,248 with 20% down, a buyer borrows $1,263,398.2 At 7.24% that loan costs about $8,610 a month in principal and interest.

Those rows sit on different clocks. Three average the last three months of closings, two cover September alone, one estimates the same housing stock month by month, the listing counts were read this morning, and the rate is a weekly average.

Redfin's three-month window now runs through September. San Francisco's median sale price came to $1,579,248, up 14.9% from a year earlier, and its price per square foot to $1,140, up 15.3%.2

Oakland's median rose 3.0% to $772,632, with the price per square foot up 2.6%.4 San Jose went the other way: a median of $1,349,357, down 5.0%, on a price per square foot of $843, down 0.35%.3

The California Association of REALTORS, or C.A.R., reports the same divide by county, for detached houses only. San Francisco County's September median was $2,054,000, up 17.4% from September 2025.9 Santa Clara County's was $1,920,000, down 4.0%, and Alameda County's $1,265,000, up 1.2%.9

Across its nine Bay Area counties, C.A.R. put the September median at $1,325,000, up 4.2% from August and 1.9% from a year earlier.9 Closings fell 3.1% over the year, against a 6.5% statewide drop, even after rising 4.9% from August.9

C.A.R. points to the mortgage rate lock-in effect, which keeps would-be sellers on the sidelines.9 The homes that do sell skew to the high end, and that mix is itself lifting the median.9

San Francisco's two headline prices measure different things. C.A.R. counts only detached single-family houses, and only September closings. Redfin averages three months of closings across every home type, condos included.29

Condos are the weaker half of the market. Statewide, C.A.R.'s condo median fell 1.5% from a year earlier while its detached median rose 1.7%.9 A city that sells many condos will therefore post a lower all-types median than a detached-only one.

The jump is a mix effect as much as a price effect. C.A.R. reports that million-dollar sales reached 35.9% of the statewide total in September, the first increase in four months, and that a larger share of expensive homes is itself holding the median up.9

C.A.R.'s Unsold Inventory Index put the Bay Area at 2.6 months in September, unchanged from August and below the 2.8 months of a year earlier.9 At 3.7 months, the state as a whole held more supply than every Bay Area county except Napa and Sonoma.9

The tightest counties are San Francisco at 1.6 months, San Mateo at 2.0, Santa Clara at 2.1 and Alameda at 2.2.9

Listings are rising in some of those same counties. Santa Clara County's active listings were up 26.4% from a year earlier, among the largest gains in the state, while Marin's fell 32.1%.9

Redfin's live pages tell the same story at street level. On November 2 they showed 1,069 homes for sale in San Francisco plus 33 in early access, 1,362 in San Jose plus 44, and 923 in Oakland plus 7.567 The same pages showed 1,063, 1,358 and 926 on October 12, so three weeks added six homes in San Francisco, four in San Jose and took three out of Oakland.

Homes that do sell move faster. The Bay Area's median time on market was 19 days in September against 24, and San Francisco County's fell to 21 from 33.9

This week's move from 7.32% takes about $69 off the monthly payment on the San Francisco median.1 Each quarter point moves that payment by roughly $215.

The year matters more. At 6.17%, the same $1,263,398 loan carried $897 less a month than it does now.

These figures cover principal and interest only. County property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance sit outside them.

Californians vote Tuesday on Proposition 1, an $11.25 billion housing bond the Legislature placed on the ballot as SB 417.10

Of the total, $10 billion is general obligation debt repaid from the state's General Fund, and $1.25 billion is repaid by veterans' payments on their home loans.11

The $10 billion splits into $7.2 billion for acquiring, building or renovating rental housing, including $5.1 billion through the Multifamily Housing Program and $1.15 billion for supportive housing.11 Another $1.1 billion goes to homeownership help, $500 million to housing infrastructure, $450 million to farmworker housing, $350 million to student housing, $200 million to tribal housing and $200 million to local pilots.11

The Legislative Analyst expects that money to subsidise up to 40,000 multifamily rental units, about 2,500 farmworker units and about 1,200 student beds.11 It would also help up to 40,000 households with homeownership, about 2,100 of them veterans.11 Units built with the rental money generally must stay reserved for low-income households for 55 years.11

The bill comes later. Repaying the $10 billion would cost the General Fund $500 million to $600 million a year for about 25 years, roughly a quarter of one percent of the state budget, and borrowing costs about 15% more after inflation than paying cash.11

Nothing in the measure raises property, sales or income taxes, and it changes no assessment rules. What it buys is subsidised housing for households that qualify by income, not a discount on a market-rate house.

The bond's result will be counted Tuesday night. Freddie Mac publishes its next survey Thursday, and Redfin's window picks up October closings in late November. C.A.R. released September on October 19, so its October report should follow in about three weeks.