Israelis vote on who ends the Iran war, Saudi and Turkish officials press Tehran for a deal, a ceasefire one town wide opens in Ukraine, China's profits split in two, and Taiwan calls Beijing's satellite images cognitive warfare: five geopolitical signals for October 27, 2026
Israelis vote in an election that decides who negotiates the end of the Iran war, Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials press Tehran for a deal while Houthi missiles target Saudi Arabia, a one-town ceasefire opens in southern Ukraine, China's profits split between AI hardware and everything else, and Taiwan answers Beijing's anniversary imagery with a grey-zone warning.
Israelis are voting on Tuesday in an election that decides who negotiates the end of the Iran war, and whether Washington keeps the partner it has in Benjamin Netanyahu.
Oil slipped about 1% in Asian trading and recovered by 0718 GMT. In southern Ukraine, a ceasefire one town wide began at 4 a.m. Moscow time.
Israel and Iran: a vote on who finishes the war
- Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and close at 10 p.m. (2000 GMT), when Israeli broadcasters publish exit polls 12.
- The Central Election Committee says 7.3 million Israelis are eligible, about 330,000 of them for the first time 1.
- Neither Netanyahu nor his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, has a clear path to the 61 seats needed in a 120-seat Knesset. If neither can build a coalition, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker until another election next year 12.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact Brent settled at $115.81 on Monday, down 0.8%, and traded at $116.24 by 0718 GMT on Tuesday, after peaking above $117 last week and touching that level again on Monday 34. The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday and the US midterms fall on November 3, so war risk gets repriced twice more this week 3.
Netanyahu has campaigned on his wartime leadership and on Trump's endorsement. He said on Sunday that Trump was prepared to act again to "finally" remove the Iranian threat, but only if Netanyahu remained in power 1.
Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, says Iran's nuclear programme must be stopped. He calls regime change in Tehran "not an achievable goal" 3.
Israel's Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu had pushed for last-minute military action that could trigger a confrontation with Iran before the vote. The report said the army chief, Eyal Zamir, opposed it. CNN reported that Netanyahu tried to persuade Trump to strike Iran and that Trump refused. Netanyahu denied both reports 2.
Mansour Abbas, leader of the Islamist Ra'am party, said as he voted that "our vote will change the government" and that he hoped Arab turnout would pass 70% 5. The far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that "it will be Mansour Abbas' government" if Netanyahu's bloc falls short 5.
About 70,000 Israelis reportedly flew home to vote, and the ballots of hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists will not start being counted until Wednesday 2. Between 2019 and 2022 Israel held five elections while its parties failed to build coalitions 2.
Iran and the Gulf: talks in Tehran while missiles fly at Saudi Arabia
- Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkey's intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on Monday. It was the first meeting between the three Mecca pact members as a group and Iran 6.
- The four countries agreed to keep talking "with a view to strengthening cooperation in peace and security", Iranian state media reported 4.
- The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted three ballistic missiles fired at the Eastern Region and four drones fired at the Southern Region. Saudi civil defence issued alerts for the Eastern Region and Kharj, then said the danger had passed 7.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact ANZ counts Gulf crude exports down a fourth straight week, flows through the Strait of Hormuz at about 60% of normal and global distillate inventories nearly 5% below their five-year average 4. Nearly 12% of the world's refining capacity for gasoline and diesel is offline after drone and missile attacks on refineries in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, according to Industrial Info Resources 8.
The same analysis says Trump's diesel arrangement with Russia will barely dent the lost supply, which matters as the midterms approach 8. Prices carry the same doubt: Brent's prompt spread, the gap between its two nearest contracts, was more than $5 a barrel on Monday, the widest in about a month 3.
Mediators are trying to build on a seven-day plan Iran presented at the UN General Assembly. Under it, Iran would allow shipping through the strait if Washington lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and frees some frozen assets 6. The parties would then negotiate a final settlement.
Two issues hold the deal up: the sequence of steps, and Iran's 440kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Washington wants it moved offshore, and Iranian officials reject that publicly 6.
Oman's foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, told an audience at Cambridge on Monday that the Gulf states should aim for a non-aggression pact with Iran. The Gulf can "no longer rely upon the co-operation of external partners", he said 6.
Vladimir Putin is due to meet Pezeshkian and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Tuesday, on the sidelines of an energy summit in Moscow 3.
October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to a Washington-based think tank that has tracked worldwide maritime incidents since 2017 4.
Russia and Ukraine: a ceasefire one town wide
- Russia's defence ministry said it stopped shelling in the direction of Kherson from 4 a.m. Moscow time (0100 GMT) to prepare a humanitarian operation in Oleshky, just across the Dnipro River 9.
- Ukraine's parliament human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, confirmed the same start time and wrote: "As head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, I confirm that the Ukrainian side is honoring its commitments" 9.
- The White House said last week that Melania Trump helped secure the arrangement. Russian troops seized Oleshky in the first days of the February 2022 invasion 9.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact The truce covers one town on a riverbank. At sea it has no counterpart: at least eight cargo ships have been hit off NATO members Romania and Bulgaria in the past three weeks, and about 34 sailors are reported dead or missing 10.
Romanian organised-crime prosecutors are seeking the extradition of two Belarusian suspects detained in Germany and one Ukrainian detained in Poland over a September arson at an industrial site near a state-owned weapons company 10. Romania's Intelligence Service said all three belonged to a network coordinated by Russia, whose targets included "state and private weapons production facilities" 10.
Elsewhere the fighting continued. A Russian missile attack on Kyiv on Monday killed at least one person and injured 10, including students at a dormitory, and strikes in Kharkiv and Pavlohrad also caused casualties 9. New explosions were heard in Kyiv on Tuesday morning 9.
Romania shares more than 600km of border with Ukraine. Its president, Nicusor Dan, says his country is the target of a Russian hybrid war of drone incursions, cyberattacks, disinformation and sabotage 10.
China and the United States: a two-speed profit report and two licences
- Industrial profits rose 14.4% from a year earlier in September, quickening from 4.2% in August. For January to September they were up 15.5% 11.
- Profits in computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing more than doubled over the nine months. Furniture profits fell by more than half 11.
- Citigroup said on October 23 that it had approval from China's securities regulator for a wholly owned securities company, and Visa has approval from the People's Bank of China, dated October 13, to begin preparing a domestic bank card clearing institution 12.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact Foreign investors held 4.66 trillion yuan of Chinese equities at the end of June, up 26% from December and 60% from the end of 2024, according to PBOC data 12. Third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, inside this year's 4.5% to 5.0% target 11.
The profit figure covers industrial firms with at least 20 million yuan ($3.0 million) of annual revenue from main operations, so it tracks large exporters and manufacturers rather than the whole economy 11.
The licences open two narrow doors. Payment apps run by Alibaba and Tencent carry nearly 90% of Chinese retail spending, and the state-run UnionPay handles about 95% of card spending. Visa's opening therefore sits in cross-border flows, where its global network is hard to replicate 12.
Citi is re-entering onshore investment banking after exiting a joint venture with Orient Securities in 2019. The wholly owned units of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and UBS all posted sharp profit rebounds in 2025 as market activity recovered 12.
CITIC Bank International's chief China economist, Ding Meng, attributed the profit acceleration to AI-related industries, saying demand from the AI supply chain "has become a key force supporting industrial profits" 11.
The counterweight is trade. Export-oriented firms are bracing for more uncertainty as expanding surpluses raise tension with trading partners, particularly Europe 11. CATL's net profit growth slowed sharply last quarter as EV battery competition squeezed margins during a downturn in Chinese car sales 11.
Taiwan Strait: an anniversary fought with satellite images
- Taiwan's defence minister, Wellington Koo, said China is waging "cognitive warfare" after Beijing marked the anniversary of Japan's 1945 handover of the island with high-resolution satellite images of Taipei, including the train station and the National Palace Museum 13.
- The Chinese military's Eastern Theatre Command published a poster placing a map of Taiwan over images of fighter jets and warships, titled "Remember the history of the restoration" 13.
- Taiwan's defence ministry reported three PLA aircraft in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. Tuesday, all three entering the northern and south-western airspace, along with eight PLA Navy ships and four official Chinese ships 14.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact Taiwan's central bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 11.48% last month from 9.45% in June, and on Tuesday forecast 5.82% for 2027 on continued demand for AI hardware 15. It lists geopolitical risk and weather as the main uncertainties for inflation 15.
A day earlier the same count showed three aircraft, one of them crossing the median line, six navy ships and nine official ships 16. The official-ship count more than halved; the navy count rose by two.
Koo told reporters at parliament in Taipei that Beijing cannot claim the war against Japan. "The People's Republic of China was established in 1949. The War of Resistance has absolutely nothing to do with the People's Republic of China," he said 13.
Taiwan's military marked a different anniversary, the start of the PLA's failed late-October 1949 invasion of Kinmen, which the island still holds. Koo said that date is "much more worthy of remembering" 13.
Beijing has never renounced the use of force over Taiwan, and the government in Taipei rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims. Neither side formally recognises the other 13.
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