October 4 LEGO radar: ten retired sets newly listed, and every sealed one asks over its six-month average
Ten out-of-production LEGO sets went up for sale between September 27 and October 4, and all nine sealed copies ask more than a six-month completed-sale average for their own condition.
The monitoring window ran from September 27 to October 4, 2026, 10:00 GMT-5. Nine out-of-production LEGO sets went up for sale inside it, every one of them on Mercari, and every one of the nine carries a posting date printed on its own listing page.
Each of the nine also asks more than a six-month completed-sale average for the same condition, once shipping and the buyer-protection fee are added; the premiums run from 31.0% to 146.6%. So the useful output this week is a set of ceilings, not a set of buys. One further listing in the window, an incomplete DreamZzz flagship, is the only ask that sits below any reference, and it sits there because parts and figures are missing from the box. That one is handled on its own farther down.
Landed means asking price plus shipping plus Mercari's buyer-protection fee. Reference is the BrickLink six-month completed-sale average for the set in the condition it is listed in, reported by brick'em: a sealed box is held to the sealed average, a used build to the used one. Premium measures the landed total against that same figure. Retirement dates and original retail prices come from BrickRanker's set pages. BrickLink's own seller supply counts were unreachable again this week, so scarcity here rests on retirement date, set format, and how much of each set's value sits in its minifigures.
Nine listings, and what they cost landed
Ranked by premium over the condition-matched six-month average; where two listings land within five percentage points of each other, the older retirement ranks first.
| # | Set · theme · retired | Posted · condition | Ask | Landed | Reference | Premium | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75203 Hoth Medical Chamber · Star Wars · retired Dec 31, 2019 1 | Oct 3 · New, sealed 2 | $75.00 | $85.95 | $63.37 sealed 3 | +35.6% | Ask about both tape seals; $63 ceiling |
| 2 | 75305 Scout Trooper Helmet · Star Wars · retired Dec 31, 2022 4 | Oct 4 · New, sealed, box creased 5 | $115.00 | $119.14 | $90.96 sealed 6 | +31.0% | Closest sealed ask of the week; $91 ceiling |
| 3 | 76399 Hogwarts Magical Trunk · Harry Potter · retired Dec 31, 2023 7 | Oct 3 · New, sealed 8 | $52.00 | $62.12 | $41.22 sealed 9 | +50.7% | $41 ceiling |
| 4 | 75317 The Mandalorian & The Child · BrickHeadz · retired Dec 31, 2023 10 | Sep 27 · New, sealed 11 | $15.00 | $23.28 | $15.14 sealed 12 | +53.8% | $15 ceiling |
| 5 | 75320 Snowtrooper Battle Pack · Star Wars · retired Dec 31, 2023 13 | Sep 27 · New, sealed 14 | $30.00 | $36.94 | $22.79 sealed 15 | +62.1% | $23 ceiling |
| 6 | 76400 Hogwarts Carriage and Thestrals · Harry Potter · retired Dec 31, 2023 16 | Oct 3 · New, sealed 17 | $25.00 | $33.64 | $20.41 sealed 18 | +64.8% | $20 ceiling |
| 7 | 71790 Imperium Dragon Hunter Hound · Ninjago · retired Dec 31, 2024 19 | Oct 2 · New, sealed 20 | $30.00 | $38.82 | $22.55 sealed 21 | +72.2% | $23 ceiling |
| 8 | 75976 Wrecking Ball · Overwatch · retired Dec 31, 2020 22 | Oct 4 · New, sealed 23 | $69.99 | $80.76 | $44.53 sealed 24 | +81.4% | $45 ceiling |
| 9 | 40371 Easter Egg · Seasonal · retired Dec 31, 2021 25 | Oct 3 · New, sealed 26 | $15.00 | $23.28 | $9.44 sealed 27 | +146.6% | Pass; $9 ceiling |
Read the Landed column before the Ask column. Shipping and the buyer-protection fee added between 3.6% and 19.3% to the asking price across the nine. The reference column is a rolling average of completed sales over six months, so it says what a set has been changing hands for, not what any one copy is worth; the ceiling in the Action column is that same figure, and it is the number to hold a saved search to.
75203 Hoth Medical Chamber: the oldest retirement on the board
The set at the top of this week's screen was retired before any other here. LEGO 75203 came out in August 2018 for $29.99, ran 255 pieces, and left retail at the end of 2019; brick'em puts sealed copies at $63.37 over the last six months and used ones at $48.21. 13
What separates this set from the rest of the week is where its money sits. Its four minifigures — 2-1B Medical Droid, Princess Leia in her Hoth outfit, Luke Skywalker in bacta-tank dress and the FX-7 assistant droid — are worth $53.01 on BrickLink, which is 110% of the set's $48.21 used average. The 2-1B droid alone accounts for $19.16 of that. A buyer who lands this box without those four figures has bought a shell. 3
The listing went up on October 3 from Oregon at $75.00, with $7.97 to ship and $2.98 in buyer protection, for $85.95 landed — 35.6% over the sealed average. 2 The seller's own photograph is the piece of evidence worth reading first.
Because the value is concentrated in the figures, the questions to ask are about the seal rather than the bricks. Ask for both tape folds in one photograph and for the four figures to be named back to you in writing, since a resealed box with substituted figures would look identical in the picture above. $63 landed matches the sealed average; the seller is asking $85.95.
75305 Scout Trooper Helmet: the closest sealed ask of the week
This is the best-priced sealed box on the board, though the margin over market is still a third. LEGO 75305, the Star Wars helmet display piece, was released in April 2021 at $49.99 and retired at the end of 2022; sealed copies average $90.96 over six months against $62.65 used. 46
The listing went up on October 4 from Tennessee at $115.00 with free shipping and $4.14 in buyer protection, for $119.14 landed — 31.0% over the sealed average. 5
Two things make this the simplest listing of the nine to judge. The set carries no minifigures at all — 471 pieces, a display stand and a printed nameplate — so there is no figure roster to verify and no substitution risk of the kind that hangs over the Hoth set. 4 The seller is also candid about the one flaw: "Slight crease in box. See photos." 5
The same seller account has a second sealed 75305 listed at $120.00 whose page prints no posting date, and a further five copies sit in the "similar items" rail between $120.00 and $149.50, so this is a set with visible supply behind it rather than a one-off. 5 Ask which panel the crease is on and whether it has broken the surface print; $91 landed is where a sealed copy changes hands.
Four 2023 retirements, four ceilings
Four of the nine sets left retail on the same date, December 31, 2023, and all four are sealed. Each arrived on Mercari in the same week from a different seller.
76399 Hogwarts Magical Trunk. A 603-piece Harry Potter box that retailed at $64.99 and has since gone down to a $41.22 sealed average and $26.70 used, one of the few retirements that trades below its original price. 79 It went up October 3 from California at $52.00 with $7.97 and $2.15, for $62.12 landed, 50.7% over the sealed average. 8 Its single minifigure, Professor McGonagall, is worth $3.27 — 12% of the used average — so the purchase is a box of bricks and the printed trunk panels. Ask for the seal on both flaps. Ceiling: $41.
75317 The Mandalorian & The Child. The BrickHeadz pair retailed at $19.99 and now averages $15.14 sealed and $8.74 used. 1012 It was posted September 27 from California at $15.00 with $7.48 and $0.80, for $23.28 landed, 53.8% over. 11 With shipping taking a third of the total on a set this small, the number that matters is the landed figure rather than the ask. Ceiling: $15.
75320 Snowtrooper Battle Pack. A 105-piece army builder that retailed at $19.99 and averages $22.79 sealed, $17.56 used. 1315 Its four troopers are worth $14.22, 81% of the used average, so this is a battle pack whose value is the figures. 15 The listing went up September 27 from California at $30.00 with $5.66 and $1.28, for $36.94 landed, 62.1% over. 14 Battle packs are the most commonly counterfeited LEGO format, and the check is the same every time: the torso print should be crisp at the collar and the helmet crest, and the legs should carry printed — not stickered — knee details on the two variants that have them. Ceiling: $23.
76400 Hogwarts Carriage and Thestrals. The 121-piece set retailed at $19.99 and averages $20.41 sealed and $12.77 used, essentially flat since retirement. 1618 Harry Potter and Luna Lovegood are $4.30 of the $12.77 used average, 34%. 18 It went up October 3 from New York at $25.00 with $7.48 and $1.16, for $33.64 landed, 64.8% over. 17 The set's white thestral wings are a single moulded piece each; a reprint with soft edges is the usual fault, so ask for a close photograph of the wing surface. Ceiling: $20.
71790, 75976 and 40371: the week's steepest multiples
The last three sealed listings run from 72% to 147% over market, and two of them are the oldest sets on the board.
71790 Imperium Dragon Hunter Hound. A 198-piece Ninjago set from 2023, retired at the end of 2024, retailing at $19.99 and averaging $22.55 sealed against $13.50 used. 1921 Three minifigures — Lloyd, Jay and the Imperium Claw General — are worth $10.68, 79% of the used average, the second-highest figure share of the week. 21 The listing opened October 2 from Minnesota at $30.00 with $7.48 and $1.34, for $38.82 landed, 72.2% over. 20 With four fifths of the value in three figures, a photograph of all three together — helmets on, katanas in hand — settles most of the risk. Ceiling: $23.
75976 Wrecking Ball. The oldest set on this week's board after 75203. The 227-piece Overwatch mech came out in October 2019 at $19.99 and retired at the end of 2020; sealed copies now average $44.53 against $37.34 used. 2224 The set's single minifigure, Hammond, is worth $6.54 and appears in no other set, which is where the collectability of this box sits; Overwatch minifigure prints are among the most frequently cloned, so the check is the pattern on the hamster ball and the seams on the torso print rather than the figure's overall look. 24 The listing went up October 4 from New York at $69.99 with $7.97 and $2.80, for $80.76 landed, 81.4% over the sealed average. 23 Ceiling: $45.
40371 Easter Egg. The steepest multiple of the week lands on the cheapest item. This 239-piece set was a gift with purchase, not a retail set — it ran from March 23 to April 13, 2020 for a minimum spend of $50, carried a nominal price of $12.99, and retired at the end of 2021. 25 Its sealed average is $9.44 against $5.05 used, and it has no minifigures. 27 The listing went up October 3 from New York at $15.00 with $7.48 and $0.80, for $23.28 landed — 146.6% over, the worst multiple on the board, and 24.8% of that total is shipping and fees on a set whose sealed value is under $10. 26 Promotional sets like this one were never sold in a shop, so a listing that calls it "Limited Edition" is describing what it is: a 2020 giveaway. Ceiling: $9.
71469 Nightmare Shark Ship: below a reference, and why that number does not hold
One listing in the window sits under a reference figure, and it gets its own treatment because the comparison does not survive inspection. LEGO 71469, the DreamZzz Nightmare Shark Ship, is a 1,389-piece set that retailed at $139.99, retired at the end of 2024, and averages $107.06 used and $146.84 sealed. 2829
The listing went up October 3 from Florida at $49.99 with $7.97 and $2.08, for $60.04 landed — 43.9% below the used average on paper. 30 The seller's description removes the discount in one line: "Missing pieces and mini figs. Im not sure what exactly is missing!" 30
A complete-set average cannot price an incomplete build, and this one goes further: the seller does not know which pieces are gone. 30 Treat $60.04 as the price of a parts lot whose contents are unknown, useful to someone who already owns the set and wants spares, and not comparable to the $107.06 figure. A second complete 71469 is listed at $127.99 in the same page's similar-items rail, which is what a whole copy looks like. 30
Two listings that call themselves retired while the set is still on sale
Two more listings from the window carry a posting date, and both are worth naming because they are the mistake this radar exists to catch.
A sealed 40518 High-Speed Train posted October 3 asks $20.00 with $7.97 shipping, for $27.97 landed. 31 The listing calls it "discontinued retired product", and the set is neither: BrickRanker's page gives it a status of Active with an estimated retirement of December 31, 2027. 32 Its sealed average is $18.99. 33
A sealed 40779 Year of the Horse appeared twice in the window, at $20.00 and at $6.00, for $28.97 and $12.07 landed. 3435 The 2026 Lunar New Year set was released this year and, on brick'em's page for it, should still be widely available at retail; BrickRanker carries no page for it at all. 36 One question settles this class of listing: open the set's own reference page and read the status line. Where the line says a set is still at retail or gives a future retirement date, the word retired on the listing is decoration.
Five-minute verification protocol
- Price the figures before the set. Figure concentration decides four of this week's nine: 110% of the used average on 75203, 81% on 75320, 79% on 71790, 34% on 76400. Ask for the whole roster in one photograph and count it against the set before discussing the price.
- On this week's sealed boxes, photograph both tape folds. All nine claim factory seals. 75203 is the one where a reseal would be most profitable, because its four figures are worth more than the set itself. 3
- Read the crease rather than the description. 75305 is the only listing that volunteers box damage, and a crease across the helmet's visor panel matters more than one on a side wall. 5
- On battle packs, check the print, not the count. 75320 is four troopers out of 105 pieces; a clone pack reproduces the count and fails on collar and crest print and on the moulded helmet shape. 15
- On any incomplete listing, price it as parts. The 71469 lot is 43.9% under a used average that assumes a complete build with six figures; without knowing what is missing, that number is not a discount. 29
- Recompute the landed total before offering. Shipping and the buyer-protection fee added between 3.6% and 19.3% to the asking price on this week's nine. On 40371 they are a quarter of the total. 26
- Check the status line before believing the title. 40518 and 40779 both arrived labelled retired this week; one retires in 2027 and the other is still on shelves. 3236
Bottom line
None of the nine sealed listings is worth buying at this week's asking price. The two worth a message are the two nearest their averages: 75203 Hoth Medical Chamber at $85.95 landed against a $63.37 sealed average, where the question to ask is about the tape rather than the bricks; and 75305 Scout Trooper Helmet at $119.14 against $90.96, where the seller has already named the box crease. Both are 31% to 36% over market, so treat them as negotiations with a ceiling rather than purchases.
The rest become saved searches: $41 for the Hogwarts Magical Trunk, $15 for the Mandalorian & The Child pair, $23 for the Snowtrooper Battle Pack, $20 for the Hogwarts Carriage and Thestrals, $23 for the Imperium Dragon Hunter Hound, $45 for Wrecking Ball and $9 for the Easter Egg. The 71469 Nightmare Shark Ship belongs on a parts list, not a set list, until a complete copy appears; 40518 High-Speed Train and 40779 Year of the Horse come off the saved search entirely, since neither is out of production.
Every listing above came from Mercari, which was the only one of the five tracked marketplaces to expose a posting date this week. eBay's item pages returned their own error page again, Vinted's catalog served a script-only shell, Depop's search an unfilled shell, and BrickLink's catalog pages still reach a human-verification screen. That is also why BrickLink's seller supply counts are missing from the scarcity signals in this edition. A second reference route was tried for those counts and does not carry them: BrickRanker's set pages publish retirement dates, six-month values and monthly sales volumes, and no live seller supply.
References
- 1BrickRanker: LEGO Hoth Medical Chamber 75203-1\
brickranker.com
- 2
- 3brick'em: Hoth Medical Chamber 75203-1\
brickem.io
- 4BrickRanker: LEGO Scout Trooper 75305-1\
brickranker.com
- 5
- 6brick'em: Scout Trooper Helmet 75305-1\
brickem.io
- 7BrickRanker: LEGO Hogwarts Magical Trunk 76399-1\
brickranker.com
- 8Mercari: Lego 76399 Hogwarts Magical Trunk\
mercari.com
- 9
- 10BrickRanker: LEGO The Mandalorian & The Child 75317-1\
brickranker.com
- 11
- 12
- 13BrickRanker: LEGO Snowtrooper Battle Pack 75320-1\
brickranker.com
- 14
- 15
- 16BrickRanker: LEGO Hogwarts Carriage and Thestrals 76400-1\
brickranker.com
- 17
- 18
- 19BrickRanker: LEGO Imperium Dragon Hunter Hound 71790-1\
brickranker.com
- 20
- 21
- 22BrickRanker: LEGO Wrecking Ball 75976-1\
brickranker.com
- 23
- 24brick'em: Wrecking Ball 75976-1\
brickem.io
- 25BrickRanker: LEGO Easter Egg 40371-1\
brickranker.com
- 26
- 27brick'em: Easter Egg 40371-1\
brickem.io
- 28BrickRanker: LEGO Nightmare Shark Ship 71469-1\
brickranker.com
- 29brick'em: Nightmare Shark Ship 71469-1\
brickem.io
- 30
- 31
- 32BrickRanker: LEGO High-Speed Train 40518-1\
brickranker.com
- 33brick'em: High-Speed Train 40518-1\
brickem.io
- 34
- 35Mercari: Year of the Horse Lego 40779\
mercari.com
- 36brick'em: Year of the Horse 40779-1\
brickem.io
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