2026-08-13 15:00｜有色金属事件流（3条）

[
  {
    "event_id": "antofagasta-lse-20260813-copper-guidance",
    "title": "Antofagasta铜产量指引为62.5至65.5万吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-13T06:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T06:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/antofagasta--anto/hy-results-for-the-six-months-ended-30-june-2026/9719041"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "supply_demand",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Antofagasta预计2026年全年铜产量为625000至655000吨",
      "2026年上半年铜产量为285000吨，同比下降9%，主要因Los Pelambres和Centinela矿石品位下降",
      "2026年上半年Los Pelambres铜产量为133800吨，同比下降7%",
      "2026年上半年平均实现铜价为6.19美元/磅，同比上涨36%"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "Antofagasta全年铜产量指引为62.5至65.5万吨且上半年产量同比降9%→主要矿企铜供应增量受限→铜价中期支撑增强",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Antofagasta后续上调2026年铜产量指引至65.5万吨以上，或修正本次产量数据"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-gongyi-20260813-aluminum-spot-basis",
    "title": "巩义现货铝报价升水0至20元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-13T06:31:35Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T06:31:35Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26081314/AB6AF4F4193BF726.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 93,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "巩义现货铝价均价24010元/吨，较上一交易日下跌220元/吨",
      "巩义现货铝报价为均价至升水20元/吨，即升水0至20元/吨",
      "巩义当地社会库存降至17万吨附近"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "巩义现货铝报价升水0至20元/吨且当地库存降至17万吨附近→流通货源收紧、基差走强→铝现货价格短线获得支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续巩义现货铝报价转为贴水，或Mysteel修正本次报价"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-foshan-20260813-aluminum-spot-basis",
    "title": "佛山A00铝报价降至贴水20元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-13T06:57:42Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T06:57:42Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26081314/D6ED9AEE996F6920.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "佛山A00铝锭现货成交价24160至24200元/吨，均价24180元/吨，较上一交易日下跌290元/吨",
      "佛山A00铝锭市场报价由平水逐步下调至贴水20元/吨",
      "市场中期主流报价为贴水10元/吨，后期少量报价为贴水20元/吨"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "佛山A00铝报价由平水降至贴水20元/吨→长单及期货仓单流入使现货流通偏宽松→华南铝现货端短线承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续佛山A00铝报价回升至平水或升水，或Mysteel修正本次报价"
  }
]
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