2026-08-11｜霍尔木兹油价跳升，美元指数更新

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-11 01:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-10T14:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-10T17:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260810-dollar-index-1433z", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透更新美元指数涨 0.15%至 99.76", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T14:33:05.064Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T14:33:05.064Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "updated", "confidence": 94, "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T01:31:41.010Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-10T14:33:05.064Z", "dollar_index": { "level": 99.76, "change_percent": 0.15 }, "fed_september_rate_hike_probability_percent": 48, "fed_september_rate_hike_probability_before_friday_percent": 55, "source_context": "Reuters updated the dollar-market page at 2026-08-10T14:33:05.064Z; the page reports the dollar index rose 0.15% to 99.76 and September Fed rate-hike pricing at 48%, down from 55% before the prior Friday's jobs data." }, "transmission_chain": "美元指数上涨 0.15%且 9 月加息定价降至 48%→美元与利率预期改变美元计价和持有成本→黄金与白银短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径美元指数回落且 9 月加息定价重新升至更新前水平，或新的实际利率事实成为主导变量时，本事件的短线承压方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-near-two-month-trough-us-inflation-data-awaited-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-near-two-month-trough-us-inflation-data-awaited-2026-08-10/)](https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-near-two-month-trough-us-inflation-data-awaited-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-near-two-month-trough-us-inflation-data-awaited-2026-08-10/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260810-hormuz-oil-1444gmt", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "伊朗条件压低霍尔木兹重开预期，油价涨 3%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T15:13:40.041Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T14:44:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "updated", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 0 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-09T22:17:35.540Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-10T15:13:40.041Z", "iran_position": "Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until the U.S. lifted sanctions, paid reparations and met other conditions.", "brent_crude": { "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-10T14:44:00Z", "price_usd_per_barrel": 86.03, "change_usd_per_barrel": 2.48, "change_percent": 3.0 }, "wti_crude": { "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-10T14:44:00Z", "price_usd_per_barrel": 80.61, "change_usd_per_barrel": 2.43, "change_percent": 3.1 }, "pre_conflict_hormuz_oil_and_lng_flow_share": "approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows", "source_context": "Reuters reported the oil-price snapshot at 10:44 a.m. EDT (1444 GMT) after Iran's conditions tempered expectations of reopening the Strait of Hormuz." }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹重开条件未满足→能源供应与通胀风险上升→黄金获得避险与通胀溢价支撑，白银的工业需求与风险偏好效应相互抵消", "invalidation_conditions": "伊朗、阿曼与美国达成并执行无条件恢复商业通行的安排，或后续布伦特在同口径快照中回落至更新前水平并消除供应风险时，本事件的方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-uncertainty-continues-over-reopening-strait-2026-08-09/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-uncertainty-continues-over-reopening-strait-2026-08-09/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-uncertainty-continues-over-reopening-strait-2026-08-09/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-uncertainty-continues-over-reopening-strait-2026-08-09/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "世界黄金协会页面标注 2026-08-10，但页面说明黄金 ETF 持仓与流量按周度、月度更新，当前可下载项为 Gold ETF Flows: July 2026，未提供本窗口可核验的 GLD/SLV 逐日持仓数字。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows)](https://gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows))" ] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级与 SHFE AU/AG 仓单", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本窗口未取得白名单来源可直接核验的 COMEX 金银库存分级数字；上期所本轮可读内容仅为官网入口，未显示 AU/AG 仓单明细数字，未以入口页、交割通知或搜索摘要替代事实。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/" ] } ] }