截至2026年8月21日09时：9条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260820-soybean-unknown-destination-sale", "title": "USDA 报告 8 月 20 日新增 15 万吨大豆销售至未知目的地", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "marketing_year": "2026/2027", "commodity": "大豆", "destination": "未知目的地", "new_sales_metric_tons": 150000, "comparison_basis": "2026 年 8 月 20 日 USDA 出口销售公告披露新增销售；页面未给出与前一公告或前周的可比总量" }, "transmission_chain": "USDA 披露 2026/2027 营销年度新增 15 万吨大豆销售，目的地暂未确定；新增出口需求先减少可供分配的美国大豆余量，若后续目的地确认包含中国或其他主要压榨市场，豆粕原料需求支撑会更明确。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "该销售被取消、改期或从出口销售统计中撤销", "后续官方数据表明销售已计入此前公告而非新增销售", "目的地确认后对应市场的压榨需求或到港节奏明显弱于预期" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-203](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-203)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-203](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-203))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-guangdong-morning-report", "title": "广东东莞与湛江豆粕报价处于 3110 至 3160 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:57:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "广东", "spot_quotes_yuan_per_ton": { "东莞": "3110 至 3130", "湛江": "3130 至 3160" }, "soymeal_sales_tons": 13000, "sales_price_yuan_per_ton": "3130 至 3150", "comparison_basis": "原文表述广东现货价格稳中上调；未披露分区域逐项调整前报价和涨幅", "unit": "元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": "广东现货报价稳中上调，油厂成交 1.3 万吨且成交价为 3130 至 3150 元/吨；现货与成交同时有数字支撑，短线豆粕 ETF 的区域现货支撑偏强，但持续性仍取决于后续成交能否维持。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东后续现货报价回落至本次区间下方", "后续油厂成交量明显低于本次 1.3 万吨", "成交价格无法代表主流现货而仅属于少量或特殊条款" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/1A856F49A0D8431A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/1A856F49A0D8431A_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/1A856F49A0D8431A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/1A856F49A0D8431A_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-northeast-morning-report", "title": "东北油厂前一日成交 5000 吨且开机率为 62.30%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:55:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "东北", "soymeal_sales_tons": 5000, "sales_price_yuan_per_ton": "3220 至 3280", "crush_rate_percent": 62.30, "comparison_basis": "页面披露前一日成交与开机率，未给出前一日之前的同口径数值" }, "transmission_chain": "东北油厂成交 5000 吨、开机率 62.30%，成交显示区域有采购而开机率提供了同步供给背景；两项数字方向相反，豆粕 ETF 短线信号暂定中性，后续要看成交量是否继续放大。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "东北后续成交量显著放大并伴随现货报价上调", "东北油厂开机率快速下行并造成区域供应收紧", "本次成交包含一次性或非主流条款而不能代表区域需求" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/146460708DE0711E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/146460708DE0711E_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/146460708DE0711E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/146460708DE0711E_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-chuanyu-morning-report", "title": "川渝豆粕现货报 3170 至 3270 元且开机率 67%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:51:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "川渝", "spot_quotes_yuan_per_ton": "3170 至 3270", "trader_quotes_yuan_per_ton": { "重庆": "3170 至 3200", "四川": "3250 至 3270" }, "crush_rate_percent": 67, "daily_crush_tons": 15300, "comparison_basis": "原文表述昨日现货价格上调；未披露调整前的区域报价" }, "transmission_chain": "川渝豆粕现货上调至 3170 至 3270 元/吨，同时油厂开机率 67%、日压榨量 1.53 万吨；现货上行提供短线支撑，高开机和日压榨量则限制供应收紧幅度。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "川渝现货报价回落并跌破本次区间", "开机率或日压榨量继续上升并带来库存压力", "后续成交未跟随报价上行" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F3127D6AD1BDA6AC_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F3127D6AD1BDA6AC_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F3127D6AD1BDA6AC_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F3127D6AD1BDA6AC_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-two-lakes-morning-report", "title": "两湖武汉豆粕报 3190 至 3210 元且油厂零成交", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:46:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "两湖", "spot_quotes_yuan_per_ton": { "武汉": "3190 至 3210", "岳阳": "3170 至 3180" }, "soymeal_sales_tons": 0, "crush_rate_percent": 76, "comparison_basis": "原文表述上一交易日两湖现货价格上调；未披露调整前报价" }, "transmission_chain": "两湖现货价格上调至武汉 3190 至 3210 元/吨、岳阳 3170 至 3180 元/吨，但油厂成交为 0 吨且开机率 76%；报价偏强与成交缺失并存，现货支撑需要后续实际成交确认。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "两湖后续成交恢复并明显低于本次报价区间", "开机率继续上升并压低现货价格", "后续现货报价不再维持本次上调后的区间" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/A0013288F34B738A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/A0013288F34B738A_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/A0013288F34B738A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/A0013288F34B738A_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-eastchina-morning-report", "title": "华东油厂开机率 82.67%且开机量 8.92 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:42:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "华东", "crush_rate_percent": 82.67, "daily_operating_volume_tons": 89200, "comparison_basis": "页面披露上一交易日开工率和开机量，未给出前一统计日同口径数字" }, "transmission_chain": "华东油厂开机率 82.67%、开机量 8.92 万吨，供给端处于高位；若终端提货和成交不能同步增加，高开机更容易带来豆粕库存压力，对豆粕 ETF 短线方向形成压制。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "华东终端成交和提货同步放大并消化高开机产量", "油厂检修或停机使开机率快速回落", "区域库存未因高开机增加而继续累积" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/0617FB96BD63CDC2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/0617FB96BD63CDC2_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/0617FB96BD63CDC2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/0617FB96BD63CDC2_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-guangxi-morning-report", "title": "广西豆粕成交价 3150 元上涨 30 元且开机率 45%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:41:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "广西及云贵", "guangxi_main_transaction_price_yuan_per_ton": 3150, "guangxi_change_yuan_per_ton": 30, "kunming_price_yuan_per_ton": 3230, "kunming_comparison": "稳定", "guangxi_crush_rate_percent": 45, "unit": "元/吨", "comparison_basis": "广西主流成交价较前一交易日上涨 30 元；昆明报价稳定" }, "transmission_chain": "广西主流豆粕成交价 3150 元/吨、较前一交易日上涨 30 元，广西开机率 45%；成交价上移而开机率未处高位，短线现货支撑偏强，昆明 3230 元/吨持平则显示区域信号仍有分化。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "广西主流成交价回落并收回 30 元涨幅", "广西开机率快速上升并带来新增现货供应", "昆明等周边市场报价转弱并削弱区域传导" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/FBCFA3F9D1AE8F02_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/FBCFA3F9D1AE8F02_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/FBCFA3F9D1AE8F02_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/FBCFA3F9D1AE8F02_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-shandong-morning-report", "title": "山东豆粕成交 3.90 万吨且日压榨量 57500 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:41:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "山东", "spot_quotes_yuan_per_ton": { "日照": "3110 至 3115", "青岛": 3120 }, "main_transaction_price_yuan_per_ton": 3130, "soymeal_sales_tons": 39000, "spot_sales_tons": 19000, "forward_sales_tons": 20000, "daily_crush_tons": 57500, "crush_rate_percent": 66.63, "comparison_basis": "原文表述上一交易日现货价格上调；未披露调整前报价和成交量的前期对比" }, "transmission_chain": "山东现货价格上调，油厂成交 3.90 万吨，其中现货 1.90 万吨、远月 2.00 万吨；日压榨量 5.75 万吨、开机率 66.63%提供供给背景，现货需求与供应同时偏强，豆粕 ETF 方向暂定中性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "现货成交持续放大并伴随报价继续上调", "高压榨量导致区域库存明显累积并压低报价", "本次成交主要为远月或特殊条款，不能代表近月现货需求" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/2D033ECAA3D16D9C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/2D033ECAA3D16D9C_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/2D033ECAA3D16D9C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/2D033ECAA3D16D9C_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-huabei-morning-report", "title": "华北豆粕报 3160 至 3220 元且开机率 86.36%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:39:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "华北", "spot_quotes_yuan_per_ton": "3160 至 3220", "soymeal_sales_tons": 4000, "crush_rate_percent": 86.36, "expected_next_session_quote_yuan_per_ton": "3140 至 3200", "comparison_basis": "上一工作日现货价格上涨至 3160 至 3220 元/吨；页面未披露涨幅" }, "transmission_chain": "华北现货报 3160 至 3220 元/吨、成交 4000 吨，但开机率 86.36%且页面提示库存压力大；高开机与库存压力可能抵消现货报价上行，对豆粕 ETF 短线形成偏空约束。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "华北开机率回落或库存压力缓解", "成交量持续放大并吸收高开机带来的新增供给", "华北现货继续上涨并突破本次报价区间" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F1DAA0BC0766EE39_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F1DAA0BC0766EE39_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F1DAA0BC0766EE39_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082108/F1DAA0BC0766EE39_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]