Rival Hormuz plans turn a war pause into a control dispute (2026)

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Data through 07:30 on July 29, 2026 (channel local time).

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Oman and Iran have put competing plans for reopening the Strait of Hormuz on the table, but neither plan has restored normal commercial passage. The disagreement is over who controls the routes, whether ships pay for access, and who can clear suspected mines.

Iran told Oman it would accept a temporary arrangement in which one direction of traffic would pass through Iranian waters and part of the opposite route would also sit on Iran's side. Tehran rejected Oman's proposal for an equal division, said it no longer recognised the International Maritime Organization's Traffic Separation Scheme, and warned that it would keep the strait closed if Muscat rejected its terms. 1

A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz near the Omani coast — A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on July 28. 1

Oman's alternative is a joint regional mechanism backed by Gulf states. Under that proposal, Iran would not have sole control, and shipping companies could make voluntary contributions to pay for navigation, environmental protection and search-and-rescue work. The model resembles the voluntary payments used by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore around the Strait of Malacca. Iran has said it wants to manage traffic alongside Oman and charge service fees, while Washington wants a return to pre-war passage without tolls. 2

That makes the dispute bigger than a routing diagram. Iran is tying navigation to a security claim after the US-Israeli attacks and says it will not allow a third country to de-mine the waterway, even if Oman invites one. Oman and the Gulf states are trying to turn a military chokepoint into a managed regional service. Those positions are difficult to reconcile because the first demands authority while the second needs shared operational control. 1 2

The market has priced the pause in airstrikes as a reduction in immediate supply risk, not as proof of a functioning sea lane. Brent fell about 8% on Monday and was down another 1.6% near $87 a barrel on Tuesday morning, according to reporting based on the latest market moves. Before the war, about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passed through Hormuz, so a durable arrangement would matter well beyond Iran and Oman. 2 3

The next tests are practical. Ships need a route they can insure and use without being treated as political participants; the parties need a clear rule for fees and mine clearance; and actual vessel movements must increase. Until those conditions appear together, the proposals are evidence of bargaining, not evidence that Hormuz has reopened.

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Quote of the day

"This is for national security and not bullying because when the TSS was for 60 years in Omani waters, we didn't say anything."
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, defending Tehran's rejection of Oman's proposed route split. 1

Rival Hormuz plans turn a war pause into a control dispute

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