截至2026年8月20日09时：9条豆粕ETF结构化事件

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}, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-shandong-supply", "title": "山东油厂日压榨 5.75 万吨，开机率 66.63%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:38:14Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "山东", "product": "豆粕", "daily_crush_ton": 57500, "crush_operating_rate_percent": 66.63, "share_of_national_crush_percent": 16.21, "main_spot_quote_yuan_per_ton": { "日照": [3070, 3090], "青岛": 3080 }, "main_trade_quote_yuan_per_ton": 3120, "total_trade_volume_ton": 32000, "spot_trade_volume_ton": 14000, "forward_trade_volume_ton": 18000, "comparison_basis": "页面给出上一交易日的压榨、开机、报价和成交快照，未披露上述指标较前一日的变化" }, "transmission_chain": "山东油厂日压榨 5.75 万吨、开机率 66.63%，同时现货主流成交价为 3120 元/吨且总成交 3.20 万吨；较高的加工供应对豆粕 ETF 形成近端压制，现货成交则说明价格仍有承接。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "山东开机率或日压榨量明显回落", "现货成交持续放大并带动主流成交价上移" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/5918F8381C3E795C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/5918F8381C3E795C_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/5918F8381C3E795C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/5918F8381C3E795C_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-guangdong-spot", "title": "广东豆粕现货报 3090 至 3130 元，成交 2 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:40:33Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "广东东莞及湛江", "product": "豆粕现货", "quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3090, 3130], "dongguan_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3090, 3130], "zhanjiang_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3110, 3130], "total_trade_volume_ton": 20000, "trade_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3110, 3130], "comparison_basis": "页面称上一交易日现货价格稳中上调，未披露具体上涨金额" }, "transmission_chain": "广东东莞及湛江豆粕现货位于 3090 至 3130 元/吨，油厂成交 2 万吨且成交价为 3110 至 3130 元/吨；现货和成交重心上移时，豆粕 ETF 近端信号偏多。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "成交价回落至现货报价区间下沿以下", "后续广东现货报价回吐上调幅度或成交量明显萎缩" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/6AF2257F1CB7AAE6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/6AF2257F1CB7AAE6_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/6AF2257F1CB7AAE6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/6AF2257F1CB7AAE6_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-chuanyu-supply", "title": "川渝豆粕报价 3160 至 3270 元，开机率 67%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:41:29Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "川渝", "product": "豆粕现货", "quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3160, 3270], "chongqing_trade_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3160, 3200], "sichuan_trade_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3250, 3270], "crush_operating_rate_percent": 67, "daily_crush_ton": 15300, "comparison_basis": "页面称上一交易日现货价格上调至 3160 至 3270 元/吨，未披露上涨金额；开机率为 67%" }, "transmission_chain": "川渝豆粕现货报价上调至 3160 至 3270 元/吨，油厂开机率为 67%、日压榨量 1.53 万吨；价格上调对豆粕 ETF 偏多，但开机和库存增加会削弱现货上涨的持续性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "川渝报价回落并收回本次上调", "库存继续增加且成交未跟随报价走强" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/B83B47A1C0B61D13_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/B83B47A1C0B61D13_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/B83B47A1C0B61D13_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/B83B47A1C0B61D13_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-northeast-supply", "title": "东北油厂成交 9000 吨，开机率 62.30%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:42:16Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "东北", "product": "豆粕", "trade_volume_ton": 9000, "trade_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3210, 3250], "crush_operating_rate_percent": 62.30, "comparison_basis": "页面给出前一日成交、成交价和开机率快照，未披露较前一日的变化" }, "transmission_chain": "东北油厂前一日成交 9000 吨，成交价为 3210 至 3250 元/吨，开机率为 62.30%；成交与开机数据方向相反，当前对豆粕 ETF 的单一方向信号不足。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "成交量连续下降并伴随成交价下移", "开机率明显上升且区域库存继续累积" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/1DF213022CABA674_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/1DF213022CABA674_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/1DF213022CABA674_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/1DF213022CABA674_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-eastchina-crush", "title": "华东油厂开机率 82.67%，开机量 8.92 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:42:35Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "华东", "product": "豆粕", "crush_operating_rate_percent": 82.67, "operating_volume_ton": 89200, "comparison_basis": "页面给出上一交易日开工率和开机量，未披露较前一日的变化" }, "transmission_chain": "华东油厂上一交易日开机率达到 82.67%，开机量 8.92 万吨；区域加工供应处于高位，若终端提货没有同步放量，豆粕 ETF 近端供给信号偏空。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "华东终端提货明显放量并消化新增供应", "区域油厂开机率快速回落" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/D214D32110098799_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/D214D32110098799_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/D214D32110098799_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/D214D32110098799_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-two-lakes-spot", "title": "两湖豆粕现货报 3160 至 3180 元，开机率 76%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:43:19Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "湖北湖南", "product": "豆粕现货", "wuhan_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3170, 3180], "yueyang_quote_range_yuan_per_ton": [3160, 3170], "crush_operating_rate_percent": 76, "comparison_basis": "页面称上一交易日现货价格稳中上调，未披露具体上涨金额" }, "transmission_chain": "武汉和岳阳豆粕现货分别报 3170 至 3180 元/吨、3160 至 3170 元/吨，区域开机率为 76%；现货上调对豆粕 ETF 偏多，但开机率仍需与提货数据共同验证。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "两湖现货报价回落并收回本次上调", "开机率维持高位而终端提货不足" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/3174315041C10735_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/3174315041C10735_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/3174315041C10735_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/3174315041C10735_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-guangxi-spot", "title": "广西豆粕主流成交 3120 元，开机率 43%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:43:46Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "广西及云贵", "product": "豆粕现货", "guangxi_main_trade_quote_yuan_per_ton": 3120, "yunnan_quote_yuan_per_ton": 3230, "guangxi_crush_operating_rate_percent": 43, "comparison_basis": "页面称广西现货小幅上涨、云南价格持稳，未披露具体变动金额" }, "transmission_chain": "广西豆粕主流成交价小幅上行至 3120 元/吨，广西开机率回升至 43%；现货价格偏多与供应恢复并存，豆粕 ETF 方向信号偏多但强度受限。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "广西成交价回落至 3120 元/吨以下", "开机率继续回升且下游成交清淡" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/848EBF116D1E7983_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/848EBF116D1E7983_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/848EBF116D1E7983_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/848EBF116D1E7983_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-fujian-supply", "title": "福建豆粕成交价 3040 元，开机率 58.75%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T00:45:54Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-19", "region": "福建", "product": "豆粕现货", "previous_trading_day_trade_quote_yuan_per_ton": 3040, "crush_operating_rate_percent": 58.75, "pickup_condition": "提货疲软", "inventory_condition": "库存累积", "comparison_basis": "页面给出上一交易日成交价 3040 元/吨和开机率 58.75%，未披露成交量变化" }, "transmission_chain": "福建上一交易日豆粕成交价为 3040 元/吨，开机率 58.75%，页面同时称提货疲软、库存累积；需求偏弱和库存增加削弱豆粕 ETF 近端现货支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "福建提货恢复并带动库存下降", "成交价上行且成交量持续增加" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/E238D4FAC903EA86_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/E238D4FAC903EA86_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/E238D4FAC903EA86_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082008/E238D4FAC903EA86_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]