Weekly settlements: Oil whipsaws on Hormuz risk while copper tests a record
For Aug. 1–6, oil finished below last week's reference despite a Hormuz-driven rebound, copper closed near a record, gold held most of a sharp midweek jump, and grains weakened as export sales softened.
For the week through Thursday, August 6, 2026, oil finished below the prior Friday's reference despite a late Hormuz-driven rebound. Copper made its strongest move, while gold held most of a sharp midweek rally. Corn and soybeans drifted lower as export sales softened and crop conditions stayed broadly favorable.
Data cutoff: 5:00 p.m. ET on August 6, 2026. Prices below use the latest same-contract fields available from the cited pages. The five-session percentages are source-reported comparisons; any implied prior level is labeled as a calculation, not an independently retrieved settlement.
Settlement snapshot
| Market | Contract | Aug. 6 settlement / close | Five-session move | Implied prior reference* | Aug. 6 session range | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | COMEX Dec. 2026 | $4,299.60/oz 1 | +3.26% | ≈$4,163.86 | Not consistent with the displayed settlement | 33 | 301,327 |
| WTI | NYMEX Sep. 2026 | $77.29/bbl 2 | -6.91% 3 | ≈$83.03 | $74.57–$78.33 | 213.07K | 236,179 |
| Brent | ICE Oct. 2026 | $82.49/bbl 2 | -4.26% 4 | ≈$86.16 | $78.92–$83.77 | 315.69K | 473,651 |
| Corn | CBOT Sep. 2026 | 439.00¢/bu 5 | -1.52% 5 | ≈445.78¢ | 434.25–440.25¢ | 87.93K | 500,910 |
| Soybeans | CBOT Nov. 2026 | 1,177.75¢/bu 6 | -0.93% 6 | ≈1,188.81¢ | 1,170.50–1,179.00¢ | 90.76K | 488,227 |
| Copper | COMEX front month | $6.6870/lb 7 | +3.90%* | $6.4360 on Jul. 31 8 | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed |
* The implied prior references for gold, oil, corn, and soybeans reverse the cited five-session percentage from the current value. Copper's move is calculated directly from $6.4360 on July 31 to $6.6870 on August 6. The MarketWatch quote pages provide an August 6 session range, volume, and open interest for the five listed contracts, but not a consistent Aug. 1–6 high/low or week-over-week open-interest change. No such weekly figures are inferred here.
Oil: the week ended with a headline premium, not a recovered weekly trend
The oil tape changed direction twice. On Monday, Brent fell $6.35, or 7.0%, to $83.77 and WTI fell $4.33, or 5.1%, to $80.34 after President Donald Trump held off on a fresh attack on Iran while seeking a deal that could restore Gulf supply. Analysts described the reaction to the comments as an overreaction. 9
Thursday reversed part of that move. Reuters reported that an Iranian parliamentary committee was reviewing a preliminary bill to bar U.S., Israeli, and other vessels deemed hostile from the Strait of Hormuz, with fines of up to 20% of cargo value for violators. Brent settled at $82.49, up $3.04, while WTI settled at $77.29, up $2.07. 2
The physical-balance data were less dramatic. In the EIA report released Wednesday for the week ended July 31, U.S. crude stocks fell 0.4 million barrels to 711.8 million, gasoline stocks fell 1.6 million to 209.7 million, and distillates fell 3.5 million to 107.2 million. Refinery utilization slipped 0.8 percentage points to 96.5%; crude production edged up 8,000 barrels per day to 13.804 million, while total products supplied rose 216,000 barrels per day to 20.970 million. 10
OPEC+ added a second, slower-moving variable. The seven members carrying the voluntary cuts agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day in September, completing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day cut agreed in 2023. Reuters' interpretation was that the quota change mattered less than the Iran conflict while supply remained constrained by the risk around Hormuz. 11
That leaves the weekly signal fairly clean: the late rebound restored headline risk, but it did not erase the Monday repricing toward normalized Gulf supply. The next confirmation point is whether Hormuz restrictions move from a preliminary bill into an actual flow disruption.
Gold: safe-haven demand met a higher-rate problem
December COMEX gold settled at $4,299.60 per ounce, up 3.26% over five sessions. Reuters reported spot gold at $4,244.29 at 2:50 p.m. ET, little changed on Thursday, after reaching its highest level since June 18; U.S. gold futures were about 0.1% lower. The large weekly gain was concentrated in Wednesday's more-than-4% jump, the biggest one-day advance since February. 12
The complication is oil. A higher oil price can lift inflation expectations, which in turn supports a higher-for-longer rate path. Reuters said markets were pricing roughly a 57% chance of a September Fed hike and an 84% chance of a December hike; Friday's employment report was the next scheduled test. 12
So gold was not trading on safe-haven demand alone. The midweek geopolitical burst pulled money into bullion, while the oil-inflation channel kept real-rate and policy risk in the same price. For the next week, the useful distinction is whether jobs and inflation data loosen rate expectations enough to let the safe-haven bid persist.
Grains: weaker sales offset a still-supportive weather picture
Corn and soybeans both finished lower over five sessions. September corn settled at 439.00¢ per bushel, down 1.52%; November soybeans settled at 1,177.75¢, down 0.93%. Their session ranges were 434.25–440.25¢ and 1,170.50–1,179.00¢, respectively. 56
The USDA's August 3 Crop Progress report put corn at 61% good-to-excellent, down from 63% the prior week and 73% a year earlier. Soybeans were 63% good-to-excellent, unchanged from the prior week and below 69% a year earlier. Those conditions are not risk-free, but they do not yet describe a broad crop shock. 13
Demand was the softer leg. For the week ended July 30, U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.14 million metric tons, down from 1.43 million the prior week. Soybean sales totaled 936,100 tons, down from 1.64 million. The reported main buyers were unknown destinations, Mexico, and South Korea for corn, and unknown destinations and China for soybeans. 1415
There was one better demand signal for soybeans. USDA reported a private sale of 122,000 metric tons for delivery to China in the 2026/27 marketing year. That sale is concrete, but it is small relative to the weekly total and does not yet reverse the broader slowdown in reported bookings. 16
Copper: a record-adjacent close with a demand warning underneath
Front-month COMEX copper settled at $6.6870 per pound on Thursday, down 1.60 cents, or 0.24%, from Wednesday. It was the second-highest close in the series after Wednesday's record high of $6.703. Against the July 31 close of $6.4360, the contract gained 25.10 cents, or 3.90%, across the covered window. 78
The demand backdrop was mixed. A secondary report of China's official July data put manufacturing PMI at 49.2, down from 50.3 in June, back below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. The non-manufacturing PMI was 49.0, down from 50.2. Those readings argue against treating the copper rally as a clean China-demand story. 17
The U.S. manufacturing survey pointed the other way. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July, its highest since May 2022; new orders were 56.7 and production 58.5. Prices were 71.1, while respondents cited petroleum products, copper, steel, and freight among items rising in price or in short supply. 18
Supply headlines also need careful reading. Ivanhoe Mines clarified on Thursday that the DRC ban on exporting unbeneficiated concentrate has been enforced for close to 10 years. Kamoa-Kakula's copper concentrate is currently smelted onsite or at the Lualaba Copper Smelter, while the operation's earlier export derogations remain part of the history. 19
The copper move therefore has two layers: a real supply-tightness premium and a demand story that is less uniform than the price suggests. The market closed near a record while China's manufacturing gauge contracted; that is a reason to watch physical premiums, inventories, and mine/smelter news rather than infer demand strength from price alone.
Cross-market read
Three signals dominated the close:
- Headline risk still moves oil faster than inventories do. The EIA balance was firm but orderly. Hormuz policy headlines produced the much larger Thursday price response.
- The same oil shock is two-sided for gold. Geopolitical risk supports bullion, while the inflation and Fed-rate channel raises its opportunity cost.
- Agriculture had no single bullish catalyst strong enough to offset softer bookings. Crop conditions remained below last year but broadly favorable, and the new China soybean sale was not large enough to change the weekly demand picture.
Copper was the outlier: it rose into a record test even as China's PMI contracted. That divergence is the next thing to verify, not a reason to assign the market a direction.
References
- 1Gold Dec 2026
marketwatch.com
- 2
- 3Crude Oil Sep 2026 Overview
marketwatch.com
- 4Brent Crude Oct 2026
marketwatch.com
- 5CU26 U.S.: CBOT — Corn Sep 2026
marketwatch.com
- 6SX26 U.S.: CBOT — Soybeans Nov 2026
marketwatch.com
- 7Comex Copper Settles 0.24% Lower at $6.6870
morningstar.com
- 8Comex Copper Ends the Month 3.93% Higher at $6.4360
morningstar.com
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13Crop Progress 08/03/2026
release.nass.usda.gov
- 14U.S. Corn, Soybean Weekly Export Sales Fall
marketwatch.com
- 15Weekly Export Sales
fas.usda.gov
- 16Export Sales to China
fas.usda.gov
- 17
- 18
- 19Ivanhoe Mines clarification on DRC concentrate exports
ivanhoemines.com
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