2026年8月14日09时：4条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260813-soybean-china-sale", "title": "美国私营出口商向中国销售 12.5 万吨大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-13", "sale_volume_metric_tons": 125000, "commodity": "soybeans", "destination": "China", "marketing_year": "2026/2027", "reporting_party": "private exporters" }, "transmission_chain": "对华大豆销售增加出口需求预期，若后续装运兑现，可能收紧美国可供出口量并通过进口成本与压榨原料预期支撑豆粕价格。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续装运取消、延迟或未形成实际出口", "美国大豆供应或全球供应增量抵消新增出口需求" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-96](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-96)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-96](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-96))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260813-weekly-export-sales-release", "title": "USDA 周度出口销售报告按期发布", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-13", "scheduled_release_time": "08:30 ET", "covered_categories": ["soybeans", "soybean cake and meal"], "report_status": "released" }, "transmission_chain": "周度出口销售报告提供大豆及豆粕出口需求的新一轮信息入口，方向取决于报告中的实际净销售与装运数据。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续核验显示报告并未包含本期大豆或豆粕数据", "实际净销售和装运数据未出现相对前期的有效变化" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08132026](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08132026)](https://fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08132026](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08132026))", "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-299](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-299)](https://fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-299](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-299))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260813-soymeal-inventory-basis", "title": "豆粕库存升至 110 万吨沿海基差约-100 元/吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T10:48:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_period": "2026-08-07 至 2026-08-13", "soymeal_inventory_metric_tons": 1100000, "inventory_outlook": "预计继续攀升", "coastal_basis_outlook_yuan_per_ton": -100, "spot_market_description": "现货价格重回 3000 元/吨关口", "contract_reference": "M09 在 3130 元/吨附近有阻力" }, "transmission_chain": "豆粕库存高位并有继续上升预期，叠加沿海基差在负值附近运行，显示现货供应压力和近月议价偏弱，可能压制豆粕 ETF 的近端价格表现。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "库存随后转为下降且提货明显恢复", "沿海基差持续收窄并回到正值", "外盘大豆供应扰动或成本上升形成更强的上行驱动" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[mysteel.com/a/26081318/0593FB5BB564A294.html](https://ncp.mysteel.com/a/26081318/0593FB5BB564A294.html)](https://mysteel.com/a/26081318/0593FB5BB564A294.html](https://ncp.mysteel.com/a/26081318/0593FB5BB564A294.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260813-chuanyu-soymeal-price-crush", "title": "川渝豆粕报价 3070 至 3160 元开机率 67%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T00:53:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "observed_date": "2026-08-13", "region": "川渝", "soymeal_spot_range_yuan_per_ton": [3070, 3160], "chongqing_trader_range_yuan_per_ton": [3070, 3090], "sichuan_trader_range_yuan_per_ton": [3130, 3160], "oil_mill_operating_rate": 0.67, "crush_volume_metric_tons_per_day": 15300, "inventory_change": "增加", "pickup_level": "低位" }, "transmission_chain": "川渝报价上调对现货形成短线支撑，但 67%的开机率、日压榨 1.53 万吨以及库存增加和低位提货同时显示区域供需仍有分化，因此综合方向保持中性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "区域报价连续回落并跌破本次区间", "开机率或压榨量明显下降且库存同步减少", "提货恢复并推动区域基差持续走强" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[mysteel.com/a/26081408/8BCAD9ADF7E7C86F.html](https://ncp.mysteel.com/a/26081408/8BCAD9ADF7E7C86F.html)](https://mysteel.com/a/26081408/8BCAD9ADF7E7C86F.html](https://ncp.mysteel.com/a/26081408/8BCAD9ADF7E7C86F.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]