🔮 Agents form alliances, DeepMind’s reset & how likely is a crash? #596｜AI agent 协作与市场风险的公开部分｜英文原文 + 中文翻译

原文信息

• 副标题：Plus: Felony bench, molecular glue, AI writing
• 作者：Azeem Azhar / Exponential View
• 发布时间：2026 年 8 月 9 日 10:52（北京时间）1
• 公开范围：官方详情页在「We can communicate now!」部分及 Google 研究论文链接之后出现订阅门槛。标题中提到的 DeepMind’s reset 等后续主题不在门槛前的可读正文里，以下不根据标题或上下文补写。2

English original

On China, bubbles & market tremors

They’ve got an extraordinary team that’s had to work under the difficult circumstances of export controls and sanctions. They don’t have access to all the compute, and what they’ve been able to develop is: how do you do a lot without very much? And that is a skill in and of itself. 2

Americans always tell us that competition is the best thing for the market. So at that one level, it’s competition, and that’s quite good. It will show the extent to which American businesses and British businesses value provenance, brand, trust, liability, service and support. 2

They’re competing with each other more than they compete with Silicon Valley. And they’re honest about being behind Silicon Valley. But the ferocity of the competition is really with your neighbor over in Shanghai or your neighbor in Beijing. 2

We will end calendar 2026 somewhere between $185 billion and $190 billion. It is harder to forecast 2027, but getting towards $300 billion is not unreasonable. Our range is wide: it could be $250 billion or it could be $350 billion. 2

We built our internal systems around assumptions about how quickly people work. When individuals suddenly produce much faster, verification, approval and decision-making cannot necessarily keep up. Transformation requires changing those systems, not simply giving everyone an AI tool. 2

US banks’ Tier 1 capital is extremely healthy right now and, certainly compared to where it was in 2007, 2008, very, very underleveraged. There is a lot of leverage in the US financial system sitting with hedge funds and investing more broadly, which I think are more than the retail risk, because they’re overexposed. They borrow from only a handful of banks, and they can unwind rapidly. 2

When I look at the metrics that we track, things look healthier because of revenue. They look slightly less healthy because of the way financing, especially the debt financing, sits. Valuations don’t look too aggressive at all across the Nasdaq. There are exceptions; SpaceX was one, briefly, but across the market they don’t look particularly hairy. So the patient, for me, if I had to give it a rating, is still reasonably healthy; perhaps not as healthy as it was a year ago, but not yet at a point where I have to call the emergency services. But I wouldn’t rule out having to do that at some point. 2

“We can communicate now!”

This post is for paid subscribers

Public-access boundary: The official page places the paid-subscriber gate after the Google game-theory paper link. The remainder of the post is not publicly readable here, so it is not translated or reconstructed. 2

中文翻译

关于中国、泡沫与市场震荡

他们有一支非常出色的团队，在出口管制和制裁的困难条件下工作。他们无法获得全部算力，而他们发展出的能力是：如何在资源并不多的情况下做很多事？这本身就是一种技能。2

美国人总是告诉我们，竞争是市场最好的东西。所以从这个层面看，这是竞争，而且相当不错。它将展示美国企业和英国企业在多大程度上看重来源、品牌、信任、责任、服务和支持。2

他们彼此竞争的程度，高于他们与硅谷竞争的程度。他们坦率承认自己落后于硅谷。但竞争的激烈程度，真正来自上海的邻居，或北京的邻居。2

到 2026 日历年结束时，我们的收入将处在 1,850 亿至 1,900 亿美元之间。2027 年更难预测，但接近 3,000 亿美元并非不合理。我们的区间很宽：可能是 2,500 亿美元，也可能是 3,500 亿美元。2

我们根据人们工作的速度假设，构建了内部系统。当个人突然快得多时，核验、审批和决策未必能跟上。转型需要改变这些系统，而不是简单地给每个人一个 AI 工具。2

美国银行的一级资本目前非常健康。尤其与 2007、2008 年相比，它们的杠杆率低得多。美国金融系统里有大量杠杆在对冲基金以及更广泛的投资领域，我认为这比散户风险更值得注意，因为它们的敞口过大。它们只从少数几家银行借钱，而且可以迅速平仓。2

当我看我们追踪的指标时，收入让情况看起来更健康。融资方式，尤其是债务融资的所在位置，又让情况显得不那么健康。纳斯达克各处的估值一点也不显得过于激进。有例外；SpaceX 曾短暂属于例外，但整体市场并不特别危险。所以如果让我给这位病人打分，它目前仍然相当健康；也许没有一年前那么健康，但还没到我必须叫急救车的程度。不过，我不会排除某个时候需要这么做。2

「我们现在可以通信了！」

付费订阅边界

公开内容边界： 官方页面在 Google 的 agent 博弈论论文链接之后显示付费订阅门槛。其后的文章内容在当前公开页面中不可读，因此这里不翻译，也不根据上下文重建。2