2026-08-12 22:30｜CPI实值落地，美元与收益率回落

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-12 22:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-12T06:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-12T14:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "bls-AUAG-20260812-cpi-release", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国 7 月 CPI 环比增 0.1%，同比增 3.4%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 99, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "release_time_et": "2026-08-12 08:30 ET", "actual": { "headline_cpi_monthly_percent": 0.1, "headline_cpi_yearly_percent": 3.4, "core_cpi_monthly_percent": 0.2, "core_cpi_yearly_percent": 2.5, "shelter_monthly_percent": 0.1, "energy_monthly_percent": -1.5, "energy_yearly_percent": 14.7, "gasoline_monthly_percent": -2.9 }, "consensus": { "headline_cpi_monthly_percent": 0.1, "headline_cpi_yearly_percent": 3.4, "core_cpi_monthly_percent": 0.2, "core_cpi_yearly_percent": 2.5 }, "prior": { "headline_cpi_monthly_percent": -0.4, "headline_cpi_yearly_percent": 3.5, "core_cpi_monthly_percent": 0.0, "core_cpi_yearly_percent": 2.6, "energy_monthly_percent": -5.7, "gasoline_monthly_percent": -9.7 }, "source_context": "美国劳工统计局发布，7 月 CPI-U 季调环比增加 0.1%，6 月为下降 0.4%；同比增加 3.4%，6 月为 3.5%。剔除食品和能源后，核心 CPI 环比增加 0.2%，同比增加 2.5%，6 月核心同比为 2.6%。能源指数环比下降 1.5%，汽油指数环比下降 2.9%。" }, "transmission_chain": "CPI 实际值与调查预期一致且核心同比从 2.6%降至 2.5%→9 月加息压力略缓和→AU 与 AG 的无息资产机会成本短线下降", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 8 月 CPI 或就业数据重新推高 9 月加息定价，或贵金属价格回吐本次数据后的涨幅时，本事件的短线方向分失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-cpi-yields-reaction", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "CPI 后美债收益率下行，10 年期报 4.652%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T13:19:14.558Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T13:19:14.558Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T13:19:14.558Z", "two_year_treasury_yield_percent": 4.176, "two_year_change_basis_points": -4.2, "ten_year_treasury_yield_percent": 4.652, "ten_year_change_basis_points": -3.2, "usd_index": 99.66, "usd_index_change_percent": -0.1, "fed_september_hold_probability_percent": 55, "fed_policy_rate_range_percent": "3.50-3.75", "source_context": "Reuters 市场反应稿称，CPI 公布后美国 2 年期国债收益率降 4.2 个基点至 4.176%，10 年期收益率降 3.2 个基点至 4.652%；美元指数降 0.1%至 99.66，联邦基金期货定价美联储 9 月 15-16 日会议维持 3.50%-3.75%利率区间的概率约 55%。" }, "transmission_chain": "CPI 符合预期且核心通胀放缓→2 年与 10 年美债收益率下行、9 月维持利率概率约 55%→AU 与 AG 短线获得利率端支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国数据使 2 年期收益率重新升破本次发布前水平，或 9 月加息概率重新明显上升时，本次利率反应失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/view-market-shrugs-off-in-line-july-cpi-report-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-market-shrugs-off-in-line-july-cpi-report-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/business/view-market-shrugs-off-in-line-july-cpi-report-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-market-shrugs-off-in-line-july-cpi-report-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-dollar-cpi-update", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "CPI 后美元指数报 99.69，9 月加息概率降至 40%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T13:39:02.759Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T13:39:02.759Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "updated", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_original_published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:57:27.831Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-12T13:39:02.759Z", "usd_index": 99.69, "usd_index_change_percent": -0.12, "eur_usd": 1.1554, "eur_usd_change_percent": 0.12, "usd_jpy": 158.84, "usd_jpy_change_percent": -0.3, "fed_september_hike_probability_percent": 40, "fed_september_hike_probability_prior_percent": 44, "fed_september_hike_probability_week_prior_percent": 55, "source_context": "Reuters 更新稿称，7 月 CPI 符合预期后美元指数跌 0.12%至 99.69；联邦基金期货显示 9 月加息概率约 40%，低于数据发布前的 44%，也低于一周前的 55%。" }, "transmission_chain": "CPI 未超预期→美元指数回落且 9 月加息概率从 44%降至 40%→AU 与 AG 的美元计价压力减轻", "invalidation_conditions": "后续通胀或就业数据令 9 月加息概率回到 44%以上并推动美元指数反弹时，本次更新失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "cls-AUAG-20260812-metals-1720", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "财联社报金 4415.32 美元，银涨 3.03%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T09:20:43Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T09:20:43Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 94, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 2}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_time_local": "2026-08-12 17:20:43+08:00", "spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4415.32, "spot_gold_change_percent": 1.08, "spot_silver_usd_per_ounce": 66.61, "spot_silver_change_percent": 3.03, "silver_comparison": "创 6 月 22 日以来新高", "source_context": "财联社电报在北京时间 17:20:43 发布，现货黄金涨 1.08%报 4415.32 美元/盎司，现货白银涨 3.03%报 66.61 美元/盎司。" }, "transmission_chain": "CPI 未超预期与降息/加息预期重新定价→美元与收益率走弱→AU 与 AG 现货上涨，AG 涨幅更大", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美元和美债收益率反弹，或现货金银回落至本次报价前水平时，本次价格状态失效", "source_urls": ["https://www.cls.cn/detail/2452464"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-global-metals-update", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "Reuters 更新金报 4428 美元，银报 66.47 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T13:03:06.084Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "updated", "confidence": 95, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 2}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "event_date": "2026-08-12", "source_page_original_published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T02:19:41.622Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-12T13:03:06.084Z", "spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4428.00, "spot_gold_change_percent": 1.4, "spot_silver_usd_per_ounce": 66.47, "spot_silver_change_percent": 2.9, "usd_index": 99.69, "wti_usd_per_barrel": 83.71, "wti_change_percent": 0.7, "brent_usd_per_barrel": 89.19, "brent_change_percent": 0.3, "source_context": "Reuters 更新稿称，现货黄金涨 1.4%至 4428 美元/盎司，现货白银涨 2.9%至 66.47 美元/盎司；美元指数报 99.69，WTI 报 83.71 美元/桶，布伦特报 89.19 美元/桶。" }, "transmission_chain": "CPI 符合预期且美元走弱→利率与避险变量共同支持贵金属→AU 与 AG 现货延续上涨", "invalidation_conditions": "后续市场确认油运风险缓解并推动美元和收益率同步反弹，或金银回吐本次更新后的涨幅时，本事件失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-oil-supply-update", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "OPEC 下调 2026 年石油需求增速至 58 万桶日", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T14:06:47.468Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "updated", "confidence": 92, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 0}, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "event_date": "2026-08-12", "source_page_original_published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:58:10.529Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-12T14:06:47.468Z", "opec_2026_global_oil_demand_growth_forecast_barrels_per_day": 580000, "iea_2026_oil_demand_change_barrels_per_day": -1600000, "iea_2026_oil_supply_change_barrels_per_day": -4300000, "iea_2026_oil_market_deficit_barrels_per_day": 1270000, "brent_usd_per_barrel": 88.42, "brent_change_percent": -0.55, "wti_usd_per_barrel": 82.95, "wti_change_percent": -0.3, "hormuz_tracked_vessels": 8, "source_context": "Reuters 更新稿称，OPEC 将 2026 年全球石油需求增速预测下调至 58 万桶/日；IEA 预计 2026 年需求减少 160 万桶/日、供应减少 430 万桶/日，全年缺口约 127 万桶/日。稿件更新时布伦特报 88.42 美元/桶、WTI 报 82.95 美元/桶。" }, "transmission_chain": "需求增速下调但 IEA 供应降幅更大且预计缺口 127 万桶/日→能源通胀与地缘风险变量并存→AU 获避险/通胀支撑，AG 方向取决于工业需求权重", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 IEA 或 OPEC 数据缩小供需缺口，且霍尔木兹通行恢复至战前 125-140 艘/日区间时，本次能源风险状态失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 BLS/Reuters/财联社并行检索及 ETF 发行人定向检索；窗口内未取得 GLD 或 SLV 逐日持仓数字，搜索结果仅有社交媒体或非白名单线索，未代入事件。", "source_urls": [] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级、SHFE AU/AG 仓单与 SGE 出入库", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮新增检索 CME 官方 Notice 入口、SHFE/SGE 官方关键词与 Reuters/财联社数值转述；未取得窗口内可核验的分级库存、仓单或出入库数字，未用入口页或搜索摘要替代事实。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html))"] }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮复查美国财政部官方 TextView；页面仍只呈现按日期的数据表，未提供窗口内独立发布时间，无法把日期行当作本窗口新增事件。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"] } ] }