近30天回填：9条半导体业绩与AI基础设施事实

[
  {
    "event_id": "SKHYNIX-Q2-RESULTS-20260729",
    "title": "SK海力士Q2营收79,318.7 billion KRW",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 2,
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "q2_2026_revenue_billion_krw": {
        "actual": "79,318.7",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "52,576.3（1Q26）；22,232（2Q25）"
      },
      "q2_2026_operating_profit_billion_krw": {
        "actual": "60,542.6",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "37,610.3（1Q26）；9,212.9（2Q25）"
      },
      "q2_2026_net_income_billion_krw": {
        "actual": "93,922.6",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "40,345.9（1Q26）；6,996.2（2Q25）"
      },
      "year_over_year": {
        "actual": "营收增长257%，营业利润增长557%",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "SK海力士Q2营收79,318.7 billion KRW、营业利润60,542.6 billion KRW、净利润93,922.6 billion KRW，且营收同比增长257%、营业利润同比增长557% -> HBM、AI服务器DRAM和eSSD需求已反映在存储厂商收入与利润 -> 存储芯片、先进封装及AI服务器供应链的盈利预期获得支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "SK海力士后续修订Q2财务结果，或独立审计导致上述数字发生实质变化。",
      "后续季度存储价格、HBM出货或AI服务器需求转弱，导致本次利润增长无法延续。",
      "更高优先级的出口管制或核心公司披露形成相反的半导体需求信号。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "SKHYNIX-HBM4-CAPACITY-20260729",
    "title": "SK海力士Q2开始量产HBM4，签约约10家客户",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "capex",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 2,
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "hbm4": {
        "actual": "2026年第二季度开始量产出货，2026年下半年扩大生产",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "long_term_agreements": {
        "actual": "已与约10家客户签署长期协议",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "nand_321_layer": {
        "actual": "321层产品计划在年底占韩国国内产能约50%",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "SK海力士披露HBM4已在Q2开始量产出货、下半年扩大生产，约10家客户已签长期协议，321层NAND计划在年底占韩国国内产能约50% -> AI存储的高附加值产品产能与客户锁定度上升 -> HBM、NAND、先进封装和AI服务器存储供给的中期可见度改善 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "HBM4后续量产、出货或客户导入进度低于公司披露。",
      "长期协议未转化为可执行订单，或客户需求与供给约束明显减弱。",
      "321层NAND产能计划被取消、推迟或后续实际占比明显低于约50%。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "SAMSUNG-DS-Q2-RESULTS-20260729",
    "title": "三星DS二季度营收127.5万亿韩元",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-29T23:56:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-29T23:56:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 2,
    "confidence": 96,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "company_q2_2026_revenue_trillion_krw": {
        "actual": "171.5",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "company_q2_2026_operating_profit_trillion_krw": {
        "actual": "89.5",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "ds_q2_2026_revenue_trillion_krw": {
        "actual": "127.5",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "ds_q2_2026_operating_profit_trillion_krw": {
        "actual": "89.2",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "ds_sales_change": {
        "actual": "环比增长56%",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "三星DS二季度营收127.5 trillion KRW、营业利润89.2 trillion KRW，DS销售额环比增长56% -> 存储与晶圆代工业务的已实现收入验证AI相关芯片需求，半导体分部在集团业绩中的贡献上升 -> 存储、先进制程和AI基础设施供应链的盈利预期获得支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "三星后续修订Q2 DS收入或营业利润，或披露主要数字存在实质错误。",
      "后续季度存储价格、HBM订单或先进节点订单转弱，导致DS增长不能延续。",
      "手机和PC需求走弱扩散至服务器、HBM或晶圆代工需求。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "SAMSUNG-HBM4E-OUTLOOK-20260729",
    "title": "三星称HBM4E已向主要客户送样",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-29T23:56:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-29T23:56:00Z",
    "event_type": "industry_data",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 2,
    "confidence": 92,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "hbm4e": {
        "actual": "已向主要客户发送业界首批HBM4E样品",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "foundry_2nm": {
        "actual": "2nm HPC项目获得客户合作，二季度Foundry业绩在激励相关计提前明显改善",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "h2_2026_outlook": {
        "actual": "服务器DRAM、eSSD和HBM需求预计加速，市场预计维持供不应求；Foundry目标实现营收两位数增长",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "三星披露HBM4E已向主要客户送样，2nm HPC项目获得客户合作，并预计H2服务器DRAM、eSSD和HBM需求加速、市场维持供不应求 -> HBM迭代、先进节点和服务器存储的产品验证与需求预期改善 -> 存储、晶圆代工、先进封装和AI服务器供应链景气预期获得支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "HBM4E样品未进入客户验证或量产，或2nm HPC项目未转化为订单。",
      "三星后续取消市场供不应求或Foundry营收两位数增长的展望。",
      "后续行业数据表明服务器、eSSD或HBM需求低于本次公司判断。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "AMSOSRAM-Q2-GUIDANCE-20260804",
    "title": "ams OSRAM Q2营收805 million EUR",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 1,
    "confidence": 93,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "q2_2026_revenue_eur_million": {
        "actual": "805",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "q2_2026_adjusted_ebitda_margin": {
        "actual": "16.9%",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "semiconductor_core_portfolio_growth": {
        "actual": "按可比口径、固定汇率同比增长13%",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "q3_2026_guidance": {
        "actual": "营收770-870 million EUR，调整后EBITDA利润率16.0% ± 1.5%",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "ams OSRAM披露Q2营收805 million EUR、调整后EBITDA利润率16.9%、半导体核心组合同比增长13%，并给出Q3营收770-870 million EUR指引 -> 光电半导体与传感业务的已实现增长及近端收入可见度改善 -> 光互连、传感和AI基础设施相关半导体需求预期获得边际支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "ams OSRAM后续修订Q2数字或下调Q3营收770-870 million EUR指引。",
      "半导体核心组合后续增速转负，或光电与传感业务需求未能兑现。",
      "公司出售业务、汇率或一次性因素被证明是本次数字改善的主要来源。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://ams-osram.com/de/news/press-releases/q2-2026-results"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "AMSOSRAM-DESIGN-WINS-20260804",
    "title": "ams OSRAM上半年设计赢单约2.5 billion EUR",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "industry_data",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 1,
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "q2_2026_design_wins_eur": {
        "actual": "超过1.6 billion EUR",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "h1_2026_design_wins_eur": {
        "actual": "约2.5 billion EUR",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "ai_photonics": {
        "actual": "启动面向AI应用、用于Slow & Wide光学数据中心连接的微光电二极管阵列开发",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "ams OSRAM披露Q2设计赢单超过1.6 billion EUR、上半年约2.5 billion EUR，并启动面向AI应用的光学数据中心连接微光电二极管阵列开发 -> 数字光子学与AI光互连产品的订单和研发投入信号增强 -> 光通信、数据中心互连及相关光电半导体需求预期获得边际支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "设计赢单未转化为量产订单或收入，或AI光子学项目被取消。",
      "客户验证、产品量产和数据中心部署进度低于公司披露。",
      "光互连需求被其他技术路线替代，导致目标产品商业化推迟。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://ams-osram.com/de/news/press-releases/q2-2026-results"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "AMD-ANTHROPIC-2GW-20260722",
    "title": "AMD与Anthropic部署最高2GW MI450",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-22T13:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-22T13:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "capex",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 2,
    "confidence": 91,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "gpu_deployment": {
        "actual": "Anthropic将在AMD Helios机架级方案中部署最高2 gigawatts的MI450系列GPU，首个1 gigawatt计划于2027年上半年开始部署",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "strategic_investment": {
        "actual": "AMD承诺未来对Anthropic进行最高5 billion USD的战略股权投资",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "AMD与Anthropic宣布部署最高2 gigawatts的MI450系列GPU，首个1 gigawatt计划于2027年上半年开始，AMD另承诺最高5 billion USD股权投资 -> 大模型训练与推理基础设施的GPU部署和资本投入获得数值化确认 -> AI加速器、先进逻辑、HBM、先进封装和服务器需求预期获得支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "Anthropic取消、缩减或推迟最高2 gigawatts的MI450部署。",
      "首个1 gigawatt未在2027年上半年开始部署，或AMD撤回最高5 billion USD投资承诺。",
      "出口管制、供应链、制造良率或客户需求导致Helios无法按计划交付。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1292/aai-2026-amd-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-up-to-2-gigawatts-of-amd-instinct-mi450-series-gpus"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "AMD-CEREBRAS-5X-20260723",
    "title": "AMD与Cerebras方案每瓦吞吐最高5倍",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-23T17:45:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-23T17:45:00Z",
    "event_type": "industry_data",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 1,
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "inference_efficiency": {
        "actual": "联合方案预计达到最高5倍tokens per second per watt",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "deployment": {
        "actual": "Cerebras计划在其数据中心部署AMD Helios，联合方案预计于2026年下半年先通过Cerebras Cloud提供",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "AMD与Cerebras将Helios与Wafer-Scale Engine组成分离式推理工作流，预计每瓦代币吞吐最高5倍，并计划在2026年下半年通过Cerebras Cloud提供 -> 低延迟推理与高吞吐AI基础设施的部署路径和能效指标获得披露 -> AI加速器、服务器、网络和先进封装需求预期获得边际支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "联合方案未在2026年下半年通过Cerebras Cloud提供，或Cerebras不再部署AMD Helios。",
      "5倍每瓦代币吞吐指标无法在可比配置和真实工作负载中复现。",
      "客户对低延迟推理基础设施需求不足，导致方案未形成订单或收入。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1293/amd-and-cerebras-announce-industry-leading-ultra-low-latency-and-high-throughput-ai-inference-solution"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "AMD-MICROSOFT-HELIOS-20260720",
    "title": "微软Azure新增两款AMD EPYC云实例",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-20T13:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-20T13:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "capex",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": 1,
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "azure_vm_series": {
        "actual": "Azure将新增两款由第六代AMD EPYC Venice处理器驱动的VM系列：Azure HDv2和Azure HXv2",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "helios_shipping": {
        "actual": "AMD计划在2026年下半年开始向包括微软在内的客户交付Helios",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      },
      "networking": {
        "actual": "Azure扩大AMD Pensando DPU在AI后端网络基础设施和部分Azure服务中的部署",
        "consensus": "原文未披露",
        "prior": "原文未披露"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "微软宣布在Azure新增两款第六代AMD EPYC Venice云实例，并将扩大Helios和Pensando DPU部署，AMD计划于2026年下半年开始交付Helios -> 云端AI推理、数据管道和芯片设计工作负载的AMD计算与网络基础设施采用范围扩大 -> AI GPU、服务器CPU、DPU、先进封装和数据中心资本开支需求预期获得支持 -> SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "Azure取消两款VM系列或缩减Helios、Pensando DPU部署。",
      "AMD未在2026年下半年开始向客户交付Helios，或交付量不足以形成商业收入。",
      "Azure AI基础设施资本开支放缓，导致部署计划不能转化为实际需求。"
    ],
    "source_urls": ["https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1291/microsoft-to-deploy-next-gen-amd-instinct-and-amd-epyc-processors-as-the-companies-expand-their-long-term-strategic-partnership"],
    "source_tier": "A"
  }
]