MLB Power Rankings, Week 7: Braves reign, Tigers crater, and the Dodgers' math problem
Atlanta Braves consensus #1 as Tigers crater and Reds post MLB's biggest weekly rankings drop.
Week of May 10–17, 2026 · Aggregated from MLB.com, The Athletic, FanGraphs, FOX Sports, Sports Illustrated, and USA Today
The Atlanta Braves sit at 31-15 with a +91 run differential, and there is no real debate about the top of these rankings. Five of seven tracked outlets have them at #1; the lone holdout, MLB.com's May 10 edition, briefly gave the Cubs the top spot before the Braves reasserted themselves. 1 Worth noting: no outlet has published a Week 8 edition as of Sunday, May 17 — all rankings below reflect the Week 7 cycle (published May 10–15), which is consistent with the industry's Monday publishing pattern. 2
All 30 teams: consensus snapshot
Cross-source consensus rank is a simple average across the six outlets with full rankings (ESPN partial data only; top-5 reconstructed from search snippets). Analytics columns are from FanGraphs and MLB.com official expanded standings as of May 17. 345
| Team | Consens. | W-L | Run Diff | wRC+ | Rot. ERA | Pen ERA | Top fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | #1 | 31-15 | +91 | 115 | 2.88 | 3.16 | Olson 2.2 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | #2 | 28-18 | +85 | 120 | 3.35 | 3.10 | Muncy 2.2 |
| New York Yankees | #3 | 28-18 | +69 | 115 | 3.06 | 3.50 | Judge 2.5 |
| Chicago Cubs | #4 | 29-17 | +43 | 114 | 3.79 | 4.11 | Crow-Armstrong 1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | #5 | 29-15 | +22 | 100 | 2.97 | 4.67 | Martinez 1.3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | #6 | 26-17 | +62 | 97 | 3.14 | 3.43 | Misiorowski 1.9 |
| San Diego Padres | #7 | 27-18 | +2 | 90 | 4.19 | 3.89 | — |
| St. Louis Cardinals | #8 | 27-18 | +5 | 104 | 3.95 | 4.53 | Walker 2.2 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | #9 | 24-22 | +24 | 105 | 3.56 | 4.23 | Skenes 1.6 |
| Kansas City Royals | #10 | 19-27 | −23 | 95 | 4.16 | 4.72 | Witt Jr. 3.1 |
| Athletics | #11 | 23-22 | −4 | 104 | 4.02 | 4.81 | Langeliers 2.5 |
| Cleveland Guardians | #12 | 25-22 | +6 | 98 | 3.79 | 4.03 | Messick 1.4 |
| Cincinnati Reds | #13 | 24-22 | −28 | 94 | 4.74 | 4.64 | De La Cruz 2.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | #14 | 22-25 | +11 | 106 | 4.01 | 3.01 | Arozarena 1.8 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | #15 | 23-23 | −23 | 94 | 4.66 | 3.79 | Sánchez 2.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | #16 | 20-26 | −10 | 101 | 3.81 | 4.11 | McGonigle 1.8 |
| Minnesota Twins | #17 | 20-26 | −7 | 100 | 3.92 | 5.03 | Buxton 1.8 |
| Texas Rangers | #18 | 21-24 | −5 | 92 | 4.05 | 2.99 | — |
| Chicago White Sox | #19 | 23-22 | −8 | 106 | 3.84 | 4.95 | Montgomery 2.1 |
| Washington Nationals | #20 | 23-23 | −9 | 108 | 5.32 | 4.47 | Abrams 1.7 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | #21 | 20-25 | −14 | 91 | 4.41 | 3.55 | Cease 2.2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | #22 | 21-23 | −19 | 94 | 4.47 | 4.35 | Carroll 1.7 |
| Boston Red Sox | #23 | 19-26 | −13 | 85 | 3.90 | 3.44 | Abreu 1.8 |
| Miami Marlins | #24 | 21-25 | −10 | 97 | 4.56 | 3.59 | Lopez 2.0 |
| New York Mets | #25 | 19-26 | −17 | 84 | 3.85 | 3.59 | McLean 1.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | #26 | 19-27 | −46 | 88 | 4.45 | 3.39 | Arraez 1.8 |
| Baltimore Orioles | #27 | 20-26 | −48 | 98 | 5.06 | 4.44 | — |
| Houston Astros | #28 | 19-28 | −43 | 110 | 5.59 | 5.11 | Alvarez 2.4 |
| Colorado Rockies | #29 | 18-28 | −42 | 87 | 5.48 | 4.37 | — |
| Los Angeles Angels | #30 | 16-30 | −51 | 96 | 4.39 | 5.44 | Trout 1.7 |
Consensus rank = average of available per-source ranks (6 full + ESPN top-5 partial). Teams' exact positions vary by source; see individual disagreements in Section 5.
Pen ERA = bullpen ERA per InsideThePen.com. 6
Notable risers
Royals (+8 on MLB.com) — Bobby Witt Jr. is running away with the WAR race
Kansas City climbed from #22 to #14 on MLB.com, the largest single-week positive jump in any tracked source. 1 The engine: Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals shortstop) is hitting .309/.383/.503 over the season with 3.1 fWAR — the highest position-player fWAR in baseball. 7 Over his last 21 games, Witt hit .337 with 12 extra-base hits and 15 runs scored, and the team went 11-5 over that span — the second-best record in MLB during that stretch. Will Leitch (MLB.com) wrote that an MVP Award is «absolutely in [Witt's] future, and maybe even soon.» Veteran starters Seth Lugo (3.21 ERA, one home run allowed across 47.2 IP) and Michael Wacha (2.63 ERA) are holding up well despite Cole Ragans landing on the injured list. 8 The Royals are still under .500 overall at 19-27, so temper expectations — but the directional trend is hard to dismiss.
Red Sox (+9 on The Athletic) — managerial reset, rotation revived
Boston made the biggest jump in any source: from #26 to #17 on The Athletic, after firing manager Alex Cora and installing Chad Tracy as interim manager. 8 Ranger Suárez (Red Sox left-hander) has posted a 1.17 ERA over his last five starts, holding opponents scoreless in four of them. Closer Aroldis Chapman has converted 21 straight save chances and owns a 1.12 ERA across 72 innings since joining Boston. The pieces for a run are there, but the rotation is one injury away from unraveling — Garrett Crochet (left shoulder inflammation) is throwing off a mound but not yet on a rehab assignment. 9 The AL East is mostly below .500, so the door is open; Chad Jennings at The Athletic noted they «can be right back in the wild card free-for-all.»
Rays (#6→#2 on Sports Illustrated) — May belongs to Tampa
Ten wins in their first 11 May games sent the Rays shooting up to #2 on Sports Illustrated. 10 Shane McClanahan (Rays left-hander) has not allowed a run in his last three starts. At 29-15, Tampa's .659 winning percentage leads all 30 MLB teams — ahead of even the 31-15 Braves on pace. FanGraphs' projection model, however, only gives the Rays an 88-win full-season forecast and 9.2% division odds, projecting significant regression from their current pace. 11 The Yankees are 2.0 games back in the AL East, and the two clubs face each other for the first time this season during the May 22-24 series — that series will test whether Tampa's hot start reflects genuine team quality or a softer-than-average schedule.
Cubs (#1 on MLB.com) — a historical footnote and a legitimate contender
The Cubs became the first team since the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers to record multiple separate 10-game winning streaks within their first 40 decisions. 1 At 29-17 with an MLB-best home record (18-5 at Wrigley), they are the most credible threat to the Braves in the National League. Jake Mailhot (FanGraphs) wrote: «It's an indication that this team is likely to win many more games than it loses this year.» The NL Central is genuinely competitive — the Cardinals (27-18) and Brewers (26-17) are both within 3.5 games — which means every Cubs series carries division weight.
Notable fallers
Tigers (−7 on FOX Sports, −4 on The Athletic) — the rotation is in tatters
Detroit's week was, by any measure, a disaster. Ace Tarik Skubal (Tigers left-hander) underwent elbow surgery on May 6 and is out for months; fellow starter Casey Mize returned from his own IL stint on May 16, only to have reliever Ty Madden take a line drive off his right arm the same day. 12 Additionally, Framber Valdez — acquired in the offseason — gave up 10 runs, was ejected for throwing at Trevor Story, and received a 6-game suspension. 13 That pushed Detroit from #11 to #18 on FOX Sports. Zack Meisel at The Athletic asked the obvious question: «It can't get worse than this… right?» The honest answer is that it can — Justin Verlander, Jackson Jobe, and Troy Melton are also currently on the IL. Jack Flaherty has a 5.73 ERA across his first four starts. Manager A.J. Hinch acknowledged after May 15 that «obviously, the 'pen has been leaned on quite a bit. There are guys that are not feeling at their best.» 12 Good news, such as it is: Skubal resumed soft tossing quickly after his minimally invasive procedure, and both Will Vest and Beau Brieske are nearing activation from rehab stints.
Orioles (−9 on The Athletic, −6 on MLB.com) — 22 months and counting
Baltimore fell to #28 on The Athletic — a nine-spot drop — as three problems converged simultaneously. Gunnar Henderson (Orioles shortstop) saw his batting average drop below .200 during the week, going 8-for-40 with 12 strikeouts in May. The rotation has the worst ERA in MLB. And 12 players are on the IL, including closer Ryan Helsley and — as of May 14 — third baseman Jordan Westburg (Tommy John surgery, out for the 2026 season). 14 Chad Jennings (The Athletic) framed it generously: «To believe in the Orioles is to believe they've just got to be better than this. To believe in the Orioles is to believe that 2023 wasn't so long ago.» 8 The 2023 season — when Baltimore went 101-61 — feels quite long ago right now.
Reds (−10 on MLB.com) — the largest single-week drop of the season
Cincinnati's 8-game losing streak (outscored 60-23) triggered a 10-position fall on MLB.com, from #7 to #17, the steepest decline recorded by any outlet this season. 1 Three of those losses were walk-off defeats at Wrigley to the Cubs, including two in extra innings. Jake Mailhot (FanGraphs) diagnosed the slide accurately: «Having outperformed their underlying peripherals for much of the start of the season, the Reds have suddenly hit a wave of regression.» 2 The analytics column above confirms the gap: Cincinnati's FanGraphs Pythagorean win% is .435, yet they're actually 24-22. That +4 game overperformance was bound to correct. The rotation situation also worsened this week — Rhett Lowder joined Hunter Greene and Brandon Williamson on the IL, leaving rookie Chase Petty (Reds right-hander, top pitching prospect) as an emergency rotation option. 15
Yankees (#1→#3 on Sports Illustrated) — Chisholm's numbers don't lie
The Yankees didn't have a bad week — they're still 28-18 — but Sports Illustrated dropped them two spots after flagging Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees second baseman) as the team's primary disappointment: four home runs with a 72 wRC+ (28% below league average) and a 29.2% strikeout rate. 10 Chisholm publicly set a goal of 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases this season; SI's Ryan Phillips wrote flatly that «he will not reach either one of those marks, based on his early-season slump.» Meanwhile, Max Fried (Yankees left-hander) landed on the IL with a left elbow bone bruise retroactive to May 14, and Gerrit Cole (Yankees right-hander) — still in his Tommy John recovery — needs at least one more Triple-A rehab start after his encouraging outing (5.1 IP, 6 Ks, topped 99.6 mph) on May 16. 16 Aaron Judge (Yankees right fielder) and Cam Schlittler (Yankees right-hander) remain among the best players in baseball — Judge at 2.5 fWAR, Schlittler at 2.5 fWAR with a 1.35 ERA — so the floor here is still very high. 17
Cross-source disagreements
The widest gaps between outlets reveal where genuine uncertainty exists.
Phillies: FOX Sports #14 vs The Athletic #24 (10-position gap) — the largest variance for any team this cycle. Philadelphia is 10-3 under interim manager Don Mattingly since Rob Thomson was fired April 28. Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies left-hander) owns a 2.11 ERA; Kyle Schwarber (Phillies first baseman/outfielder) homered in four straight games. 13 The bearish case: the schedule during that 10-3 stretch was light, Trea Turner (Phillies shortstop) is slashing .234/.283/.354 (75 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR), and the team's overall run differential is −23. The Phillies are both better and worse than their surface record suggests — the gap in how outlets weigh recent results versus underlying numbers explains the 10-spot variance.
Athletics: MLB.com #10 vs Sports Illustrated #17 (7-position gap) — Oakland leads the AL West at 23-22 with two promising young hitters in Nick Kurtz (first baseman, 34-game on-base streak, .437 OBP) and Shea Langeliers (catcher, 11 home runs, 176 wRC+). 1 SI's bearish case centers on Brent Rooker (Athletics designated hitter), who is hitting .188 with a 73 wRC+ and −0.2 fWAR — a steep decline from his back-to-back 30-homer seasons. Grant Brisbee (The Athletic) offered the best summary of the team's character: «Their fielders catch it just enough to stay in first place.» 8
Sidebar — Jacob Misiorowski: The most impressive individual performance of the week didn't move the needle much in rankings but deserves mention. Misiorowski (Brewers right-hander, age 24) threw seven of the fastest fastballs ever recorded for a starting pitcher in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008), topping out at 103.6 mph and averaging 101.1 mph on his 57 fastballs while striking out 11 Yankees in six scoreless innings. 1 He now leads MLB in strikeouts (70) despite ranking outside the top 45 in innings pitched. Sal Frelick (Brewers right fielder) said from the dugout: «I kept looking up at the velo after every pitch as he got deep. I couldn't believe it.» 1
Analytics check: where the numbers diverge from human rankings
The FanGraphs Pythagorean win% model — which estimates expected record from runs scored and allowed — surfaces a few teams worth watching closely.
The Dodgers have the single largest negative deviation: their actual 28-18 record is five games worse than the 33-13 record their +85 run differential implies. 3 They also lead the league in team wRC+ (120) and have the third-best bullpen ERA (3.10). 4 The simplest read: their actual record undersells how good this team is, and if sequencing luck normalizes, more wins follow. FanGraphs already projects them at 96-66 for the full season with 25.7% World Series odds — highest in baseball. 11
The Padres and Cardinals sit at 27-18 each — four games better than their respective Pythagorean expectations. Both teams are riding strong bullpen sequencing and winning close games at an above-average rate. The Cardinals' underlying FIP (4.47) and wRC+ (104) don't scream a 27-win team; expect some regression. 5
| Rank | Player | Team | fWAR | Key stat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bobby Witt Jr. (SS) | Royals | 3.1 | .309/.383/.503, 13 SB |
| T2 | Aaron Judge (OF) | Yankees | 2.5 | .273/.406/.612, 16 HR |
| T2 | Elly De La Cruz (SS) | Reds | 2.5 | .299/.363/.522, 10 HR |
| T2 | Shea Langeliers (C) | Athletics | 2.5 | .337/.396/.609, 11 HR |
| 5 | Yordan Alvarez (DH) | Astros | 2.4 | .322/.429/.649, 15 HR |
| T1-P | Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) | Phillies | 2.5 | 2.74 ERA, 1.91 FIP |
| T1-P | Cam Schlittler (RHP) | Yankees | 2.5 | 1.35 ERA, 1.81 FIP |
| 3-P | Dylan Cease (RHP) | Blue Jays | 2.2 | 2.41 ERA, 12.90 K/9 |
Note: Yordan Alvarez was placed on IL with a right hand muscle strain on May 15 — his rank reflects season totals through that date. 18
Injury tracker: week of May 10–17
This week produced a high volume of significant moves across both leagues.
Season-altering losses:
- Jordan Westburg (Orioles 3B) — Tommy John surgery May 14, out for 2026. Targeting early 2027 return. 14
- Clay Holmes (Mets RHP) — fractured right fibula from a comebacker May 15, out ~3 months. He had a 2.39 ERA in 52.2 IP, the team's most important starter behind Nolan McLean. 19
- Jose Berrios (Blue Jays RHP) — elbow surgery May 20 for a stress fracture. If ligament damage is confirmed and Tommy John surgery becomes necessary, he's likely out until 2027. Toronto's rotation already lost Bowden Francis and Cody Ponce to season-ending surgery earlier this year. 20
- Blake Snell (Dodgers LHP) — loose body removal from left elbow scheduled May 19. Manager Dave Roberts described it as «a lot quicker recovery» than full surgery; the Dodgers expect him back this season. 21
Notable new IL placements:
- Max Fried (Yankees LHP) — left elbow bone bruise, retroactive to May 14, no surgery expected. 16
- Cal Raleigh (Mariners C) — right oblique strain, May 14; first career IL placement. Slashing .161/.243/.317 this season after his 60-HR campaign in 2025. 22
- Francisco Alvarez (Mets C) — torn meniscus, surgery May 14, ~8 weeks recovery. 23
- Trevor Story (Red Sox SS) — sports hernia, placed on IL May 16-17. Surgery would mean a 6-to-10-week absence. Story told reporters: «If you're watching the game, I think you can tell that I'm not moving the way that I want, and that's frustrating.» 9
Nearing returns:
- Gerrit Cole (Yankees RHP) — struck out 6 over 5.1 innings in his May 16 Triple-A rehab start, touched 99.6 mph, averaged 97 mph. One more outing likely before his MLB return from Tommy John surgery. 24
- Jeremy Peña (Astros SS) — rehab assignment at Double-A Corpus Christi as of May 16, return possible during the upcoming Twins series. 18
Day-to-day watch: Jose Altuve (Astros 2B) exited the May 16 game with a left side injury — MRI scheduled for May 17. Manager Joe Espada noted Altuve «felt something on the left side» and could not run out of the batter's box. 18 Corey Seager (Rangers SS) missed two straight games with back spasms. Christian Yelich (Brewers OF) sat for a third consecutive game with back issues on May 16.
Week ahead: May 18–24 schedule outlook
Four series stand out as division-defining over the next week.
Dodgers @ Padres (May 18–20, Petco Park): Half a game separates these teams in the NL West. 25 The series winner could open a 2.5-game lead; the loser could fall two back. The Dodgers then travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers (May 22–24), making this a six-game cross-country gauntlet with opponents combining for a .602 winning percentage — the second-toughest schedule in MLB this week. 26
Brewers @ Cubs (May 18–20, Wrigley Field): The NL Central gap currently sits at 3.5 games. A Cubs sweep widens it to 6.5; a Brewers sweep closes it to 0.5. 27 Milwaukee then hosts the Dodgers over the weekend, giving them the toughest six-game stretch of any team in baseball (.620 combined opponent winning percentage).
Rays @ Yankees (May 22–24, Yankee Stadium): The first meeting between the AL East's top two clubs. Tampa leads by 2.0 games and the Rays' model-beating pace will face its stiffest test yet away from home. 28 The Yankees hold the home-field advantage in a series where both teams will have something to prove.
Braves (@ Marlins / vs Nationals): Atlanta faces the easiest schedule of any top-five team this week — opponents combining for a .475 winning percentage. 3 A 5-2 or better week against Miami and Washington would extend the NL East lead, which already sits at 8.0 games over the Phillies.
Generated from Week 7 editions published May 10–15, 2026. Analytics data as of May 17, 2026. No Week 8 ranking editions were available at time of writing.
References
- 1
- 2FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 4–10
blogs.fangraphs.com
- 3
- 4FanGraphs Team Batting Dashboard
fangraphs.com
- 5FanGraphs Team Pitching Dashboard
fangraphs.com
- 6MLB Bullpen ERA Rankings 2026
insidethepen.com
- 7FanGraphs WAR Leaderboard — Position Players
fangraphs.com
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11FanGraphs Playoff Odds (THE BAT X)
fangraphs.com
- 12
- 13FOX Sports 2026 MLB Power Rankings
foxsports.com
- 14Jordan Westburg Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
mlbtraderumors.com
- 15Reds To Place Rhett Lowder On 15-Day Injured List
mlbtraderumors.com
- 16Yankees Place Max Fried On 10-Day Injured List
mlbtraderumors.com
- 17FanGraphs WAR Leaderboard — Pitchers
fangraphs.com
- 18
- 19Clay Holmes Has Fractured Fibula, Will Be Out For A Long Time
mlbtraderumors.com
- 20Jose Berrios To Undergo Elbow Surgery
mlbtraderumors.com
- 21Dodgers' Blake Snell Set for Elbow Surgery
foxsports.com
- 22Mariners Place Cal Raleigh On Injured List
mlbtraderumors.com
- 23Francisco Alvarez Diagnosed With Torn Meniscus
mlbtraderumors.com
- 242026 Injury Report: Updates on Altuve, Holmes, Seager
newbaseballmedia.com
- 25
- 26FanGraphs Projected Standings
fangraphs.com
- 27
- 28
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