FY 2026 H-1B odds: about 35%, with wage-weighted selection next
The latest complete USCIS table puts the FY 2026 selected-registration rate at about 35%, up roughly 6 percentage points from FY 2025. This issue explains why the odds moved, what the FY 2027 wage-weighted rule changes, and how to read degree, country, and employer patterns without treating approvals as a lottery guarantee.
About 35% was the latest fully quantified H-1B cap selection rate: FY 2026 had 343,981 eligible registrations and 120,141 selected registrations, up from about 29% in FY 2025 on the same selected-registrations basis. The calmer read is not that the lottery became easy. It is that duplicate-registration pressure fell sharply after USCIS moved to beneficiary-centric selection. 1
USCIS has already completed the FY 2027 initial selection, but it has not yet published a full FY 2027 registration table. This issue uses the latest complete USCIS registration table, FY 2026, and pairs it with the FY 2027 rule change that applicants and employers must now understand. This is informational only, not legal or immigration advice.
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The odds number, in plain English
The FY 2026 selected-registration rate was 34.9%: 120,141 selected registrations divided by 343,981 eligible registrations. FY 2025 was 28.7% on the same measure: 135,137 selected registrations divided by 470,342 eligible registrations. That is a +6.2 percentage point year-over-year move by the raw table calculation. 1
Use that rate carefully. Since FY 2025, USCIS has selected by unique beneficiary, not by every registration. If one person is registered by more than one employer and is selected, each eligible registrant may receive a selection notice. That makes selected registrations close to, but not identical to, selected people. USCIS reported about 339,000 eligible unique beneficiaries for FY 2026 and an average of 1.01 registrations per beneficiary, so the practical person-level read is still roughly mid-30s. 1
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The chart shows the main anxiety reducer: the denominator changed more than the cap. Eligible registrations fell from 758,994 in FY 2024 to 470,342 in FY 2025, then to 343,981 in FY 2026. USCIS attributed the lower FY 2025 and FY 2026 duplicate pressure in large part to the beneficiary-centric process and fraud controls. 1
What changed for FY 2027
The specific policy change is weighted selection by wage level. DHS published a final rule on Dec. 29, 2025, effective Feb. 27, 2026. For FY 2027, USCIS says registrations for unique beneficiaries are assigned by the highest relevant OEWS wage level: Level IV enters the selection pool four times, Level III three times, Level II twice, and Level I once. Each unique beneficiary still counts once toward the numerical allocation projection. 2
That is not the same as a pure salary ranking. A Level I registration still has a chance, but a Level IV registration receives more entries in the pool. USCIS also required registrants to provide the relevant wage-level information and says the petition must support the wage level selected at registration. 3
| Season | Registration window | Fee | Selection rule to read first |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 | Mar. 7 to Mar. 24, 2025 | $215 | Beneficiary-centric random selection. 4 |
| FY 2027 | Mar. 4 to Mar. 19, 2026 | $215 | Beneficiary-centric, weighted by OEWS wage level. 5 |
Who tends to show up in approvals, not lottery picks
USCIS does not publish a clean public table of lottery selections by country of origin, degree level, and employer. The closest official demographic read is approved H-1B petitions. That means this cut is about who appears in approvals, not a promise about who will be selected in the next lottery.
For FY 2025 approved H-1B petitions, USCIS reported 406,348 approvals. By highest degree, 57.5% reported a master's degree, 30.5% a bachelor's degree, 8.1% a doctorate, and 3.7% a professional degree. 6
By country of birth in FY 2025 approvals, USCIS reported India at 69.9% and China at 12.1%. The next countries were much smaller: the Philippines at 1.4%, Canada at 1.1%, and South Korea at 1.0%. 6
Employer patterns are more mixed than the stereotype. An NFAP analysis of USCIS Employer Data Hub data, reported by Stuart Anderson in Forbes, found that in FY 2025 Amazon had 4,644 approved H-1B petitions for initial employment, followed by Meta Platforms at 1,555, Microsoft at 1,394, and Google at 1,050. The same analysis said 28,277 different employers had at least one new H-1B petition approved in FY 2025, and 95% of employers had ten or fewer initial-employment approvals. 7
How to read your own chances without panic
Start with the denominator. If you were registered in FY 2026, the broad published rate was about one selected registration for every 2.9 eligible registrations. If you are looking toward FY 2027 and later, add the wage-level weight before you compare yourself with last year's headline number.
Then separate three questions that often get blurred:
- Was my registration selected? That is the lottery step.
- Can the employer file a complete petition? USCIS says selection only gives eligibility to file. The petition still must establish H-1B eligibility. 8
- Does my profile match approval-heavy patterns? Degree, occupation, country, and employer data describe approved petitions, not guaranteed selection.
The steady takeaway: the latest complete odds improved because the registration pool became cleaner and smaller. The next uncertainty is not just volume. It is how wage-level weighting changes the distribution of selected beneficiaries.
References
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- 2Federal Register: Weighted Selection Process for H-1B Petitions
federalregister.gov
- 3USCIS H-1B Cap Season
uscis.gov
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