截至2026年8月17日09时：10条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260814-soybean-china-sale", "title": "USDA 披露对华销售 13.6 万吨大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-14", "sale_volume_metric_tons": 136000, "commodity": "soybeans", "destination": "China", "marketing_year": "2026/2027", "reporting_party": "private exporters" }, "transmission_chain": "对华大豆销售增加美国出口需求预期，若后续装运兑现，可能收紧美国可供出口量，并通过进口成本与压榨原料预期支撑豆粕价格。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续装运取消、延迟或未形成实际出口", "美国大豆供应或全球供应增量抵消新增出口需求" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-97](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-97)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-97](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-97))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260814-crush-forecast", "title": "下周大豆压榨预估回升至 228.49 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T09:29:40Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-14", "actual_week": "2026 年第 33 周", "actual_crush_metric_tons": 2236300, "actual_week_on_week_change_metric_tons": -96700, "actual_operating_rate_pct": 61.58, "forecast_week": "2026 年第 34 周", "forecast_crush_metric_tons": 2284900, "forecast_week_on_week_change_metric_tons": 48600, "forecast_operating_rate_pct": 62.92, "forecast_operating_rate_change_percentage_points": 1.34 }, "transmission_chain": "本周压榨量环比下降后，Mysteel 预计下周压榨量增加 4.86 万吨、开机率升至 62.92%；若预估兑现，豆粕供应端压力将在未来一周边际回升。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "实际开机受检修、断豆或库存约束而低于预估", "下游提货回升速度超过压榨增量并带动豆粕库存下降" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/AC034B1D8DA20F2D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/AC034B1D8DA20F2D_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/AC034B1D8DA20F2D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/AC034B1D8DA20F2D_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260814-national-crush-operation", "title": "全国油厂开机率 60.25%豆粕成交 13.32 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T10:04:53Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-14", "national_oil_mill_operating_rate_pct": 60.25, "operating_rate_comparison": "环比小幅上升，未披露增幅", "soymeal_transactions_metric_tons": 133200, "transaction_comparison": "环比增加，未披露增量" }, "transmission_chain": "当日开机率小幅上升且豆粕成交量环比增加，压榨端供应和现货成交同时活跃；在页面同时给出高库存压力的背景下，短线供应压力仍偏重。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续开机率回落且豆粕成交量连续增加", "库存数据转为下降并推动现货基差走强" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260814-weekly-pickup", "title": "全国豆粕周度提货量环比增 2.99 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T10:02:51Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_period": "2026-08-10 至 2026-08-14", "weekly_pickup_metric_tons": 1030100, "week_on_week_change_metric_tons": 29900, "regional_changes": { "华北": 22500, "东北": 15900, "华东": 14400 }, "regional_change_unit": "metric_tons" }, "transmission_chain": "周度提货量升至 103.01 万吨，较上周增加 2.99 万吨，华北、东北和华东增量较突出；下游提货回升对豆粕现货需求形成边际支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "下一周提货量回落并低于本期水平", "压榨量增幅持续高于提货增幅并推高豆粕库存" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/0693093489CA5DD4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/0693093489CA5DD4_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/0693093489CA5DD4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/0693093489CA5DD4_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260814-weekly-transaction", "title": "全国豆粕周度成交量降至 59.93 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T10:01:43Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -2, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_period": "2026-08-10 至 2026-08-14", "weekly_transaction_metric_tons": 599300, "previous_week_transaction_metric_tons": 1503500, "week_on_week_change_metric_tons": -904200, "weekly_average_price_yuan_per_ton": 3080 }, "transmission_chain": "周度成交量由上周 150.35 万吨降至 59.93 万吨，减少 90.42 万吨；成交降幅远大于提货量的温和回升，说明下游新增采购意愿偏弱，压制现货需求弹性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续周度成交量快速恢复并持续高于本期", "下游补库带动现货基差连续走强" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/3BE9825966C843F2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/3BE9825966C843F2_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/3BE9825966C843F2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/3BE9825966C843F2_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260814-feed-inventory-days", "title": "饲料企业豆粕库存维持 7.48 天", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T09:51:14Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "survey_date": "2026-08-14", "survey_week": "2026 年第 33 周", "sample_size_feed_enterprises": 50, "soymeal_physical_inventory_days": 7.48, "week_on_week_change_days": 0, "year_on_year_change_days": -0.87 }, "transmission_chain": "50 家饲料企业样本的豆粕物理库存为 7.48 天，环比持平、同比减少 0.87 天；当前补库需求没有继续扩张，但库存天数低于去年同期为需求端提供一定支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "库存天数连续上升并超过本期水平", "饲料企业采购放缓使同比下降优势消失" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/BC9AAFD81A4678A4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/BC9AAFD81A4678A4_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/BC9AAFD81A4678A4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081417/BC9AAFD81A4678A4_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260814-regional-spot-divergence", "title": "天津山东广东豆粕跌 25 元江苏涨 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-14T10:04:53Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-14", "unit": "元/吨", "markets": [ {"market": "天津", "soymeal_price": 3045, "change_vs_previous": -25}, {"market": "山东", "soymeal_price": 3005, "change_vs_previous": -25}, {"market": "江苏", "soymeal_price": 3000, "change_vs_previous": 10}, {"market": "广东", "soymeal_price": 3005, "change_vs_previous": -25} ] }, "transmission_chain": "四地现货价格中三地下跌、江苏上涨，区域报价分化但总体偏弱；同一交易日的现货分化显示局部供需和提货节奏对豆粕 ETF 近端定价的影响仍大。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "多数区域价格转为上涨并持续收窄地区间跌幅", "区域基差同步走强并伴随成交量恢复" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081418/B763D65E9E7D2555_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260815-two-lakes-spot", "title": "两湖 43%豆粕现货上涨 30 至 40 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-15T03:17:56Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-15", "protein_pct": 43, "unit": "元/吨", "markets": [ {"market": "武汉中海", "soymeal_price": 3110, "change_vs_previous": 30}, {"market": "黄冈中粮", "soymeal_price": 3110, "change_vs_previous": 30}, {"market": "荆州中粮", "soymeal_price": 3130, "change_vs_previous": 40} ] }, "transmission_chain": "两湖 43%豆粕现货报价同步上调 30 至 40 元/吨，区域现货短线出现集中提价，对豆粕 ETF 近端价格形成局部支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "两湖报价回吐本次涨幅", "后续成交量不足以维持提价且区域基差重新走弱" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/77334AC8593C775D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/77334AC8593C775D_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/77334AC8593C775D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/77334AC8593C775D_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260815-rizhao-spot", "title": "日照多数 43%豆粕品牌上涨 30 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-15T03:14:45Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-15", "unit": "元/吨", "main_43_protein_brands": ["日照凌云海", "象明", "嘉吉", "邦基", "中纺", "龙口香驰", "博兴香驰", "博兴口福"], "main_43_protein_change_vs_previous": 30, "qingdao_bohai_change_vs_previous": 25, "jining_46_protein_price": 3200, "jining_46_protein_change_vs_previous": 30 }, "transmission_chain": "日照多数 43%豆粕品牌报价上调 30 元/吨，青岛渤海上调 25 元/吨，46%蛋白济宁嘉冠报 3200 元/吨并上涨 30 元；鲁东现货提价为周末区域价格提供支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "鲁东主流品牌价格回落并跌破本次调整前水平", "成交转弱或库存上升使区域基差重新走弱" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/FBF27E42B668ECB1_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/FBF27E42B668ECB1_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/FBF27E42B668ECB1_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081511/FBF27E42B668ECB1_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260816-chuanyu-spot-crush", "title": "川渝豆粕现货区间为 3070 至 3160 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-17T00:48:38Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "observed_date": "2026-08-16", "region": "川渝", "soymeal_spot_range_yuan_per_ton": [3070, 3160], "chongqing_trader_range_yuan_per_ton": [3070, 3100], "sichuan_trader_range_yuan_per_ton": [3140, 3160], "oil_mill_operating_rate_pct": 67, "crush_volume_metric_tons_per_day": 15300, "price_comparison": "昨日持稳" }, "transmission_chain": "川渝现货在 3070 至 3160 元/吨区间持稳，油厂开机率 67%、日压榨量 1.53 万吨；区域价格未继续上行，供给端仍保持运行，短线方向取中性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "川渝报价连续上破 3160 元/吨并伴随开机率下降", "报价跌破 3070 元/吨或日压榨量明显增加" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081708/AC68EE14111FB025_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081708/AC68EE14111FB025_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081708/AC68EE14111FB025_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081708/AC68EE14111FB025_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]