🔮 AI politics & the future of growth ++ #602｜英文原文 + 中文翻译（附误发更正） (2026)

原文信息

英文标题：🔮 AI politics & the future of growth ++ #602。1
副标题：Plus: our diamond error, easy energy & AI-generated TV。1
期号：第 602 期。
作者：Azeem Azhar（单人署名）。1
发布时间：2026 年 9 月 19 日；官方 RSS 记录的绝对发布时间为北京时间 2026 年 9 月 19 日 22:22:55（14:22:55 GMT）。2
本期性质：官方标记为付费内容，公开正文只到付费提示为止。1
公开范围：公开部分依次是开场信、「Americans hate AI. Who's to blame?」一节（超过六分之一的美国人认为 AI 几乎肯定会毁灭人类、爱德曼 2020 与 2024 两组数据、Brynjolfsson 约 1720 亿美元消费者剩余的估算、理发店和拉斯维加斯 IT 高管两个例子，以及作者推荐的三篇阅读），随后是会员内容目录；最后一个可见的小标题「The new growth equilibrium?」之后就是付费提示，会员部分不补写。1
脚注缺口：爱德曼数据的那一句在原页面带一个脚注标记「[1]」，脚注正文没有出现在公开页面上。1
附注：同一天北京时间 22:45:05（14:45:05 GMT）发布的免费短文「To err is human!」，说明这一期原本是周日的刊物、被提前一天发出；这篇短文没有付费墙，全文附在本文末尾。2 3
封面图：本期官方页面的头图，同时也是正文配图——美国街头的反 AI 抗议现场，画面里有人举着划掉 OpenAI 标志的标牌和「NO KILLER ROBOTS」标语，摄影 Nathan Kuczmarski（Unsplash）。1

English original

Hi all,

The past ten days have felt like the AI pot finally boiled over. It's a complicated and confusing moment. We have to hold in our heads that most Americans appear to loathe AI, but businesses and consumers seem to like it enough that Anthropic is well on its way to $100bn in annualised revenue this year. And despite being on track to be the fastest-growing company ever, Anthropic's leadership believes they might kill all their customers. And there is more besides. If you haven't already, read my essay on the emerging control risks from AI. 1

I'm also increasingly concerned about the security situation in Europe after coordinated messages from several countries about the likelihood of substantial Russian aggression. I will cover that in the next few issues, after I get back from Hong Kong where I am this week. 1

But meanwhile, let's try to make sense of the swirling cauldron that is AI.

Azeem

Americans hate AI. Who's to blame?

More than one in six Americans believe AI will almost certainly destroy humanity. Last month I wrote about the petard problem of AI. 1

Today's petardiers are not Rosencrantz and Guildenstern conspiring against the Prince of Denmark.
They are the titans of AI, the bosses of the labs, the investors behind them. For nearly a decade, these software coders had made promises: of reigniting economic growth, of making daily life easier and less risky, perhaps even of eliminating disease. To do this, they would need capital: to write their software and to build 21st-century infrastructure to run it. The gains will be so huge that they'd need to go quickly, very quickly. 1

It got worse since then. Jacob Coxon's viral tweet uncorked the box where many were hiding their suspicions. 1

Timothy B. Lee (@binarybits) posted the poll on 17 September 2026 with one line of his own; the post had 59.7K views by the time the newsletter went out: 4

This is wild. (I would have said "very small risk.")

Bar chart splitting Americans' views by their 2024 vote on the risk that advanced AI will destroy humanity, from "almost certain to happen" through "significant risk", "moderate risk", "very small risk", "no risk" and "don't know" — The POLITICO Poll was conducted by Public First from September 13 to 15, 2026, surveying 2,064 U.S. adults online, with an overall margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points. This chart travelled inside the Timothy B. Lee post quoted above and is the original data behind the newsletter's "more than one in six Americans" line; the chart is by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO. 5

Americans have never been wild about AI. In 2020, the Edelman Trust Barometer found that only 34% of Americans believed AI would have a positive impact, while 23% thought it would be largely negative. By 2024, mood had soured. Edelman reported that only 19% of Americans would embrace AI while 50% would object to it.[1] 1

Two years of news coverage, a construction boom later, and chatbots that a quarter of American adults use daily – and this is where you get to? 1

Nearly a trillion dollars in the ground, to turn your customers against you. It doesn't matter that Erik Brynjolfsson's research shows that the aggregate consumer surplus from AI in America is about $172 billion. 1

But even with a lack of enthusiasm, to put it mildly, people will keep buying AI tools. My local barber, a four-chair shop, just installed an AI receptionist to handle bookings. The couple of hundred IT execs I spoke to in Las Vegas two weeks ago were unanimous in continuing with implementations. 1

If American businesses keep buying and American voters hate it, this will end up settled in the political arena. 1

Here are some of the more interesting things I've read on this matter: 1

Ben Goertzel, who coined the term AGI, challenges the labs' call for a centralized slowdown in favor of a decentralized prosocial approach. 6
Jaron Lanier, a VR pioneer, spoke at the AI event hosted by Steve Bannon and Bernie Sanders. He argued that the language we use when we talk about AI frames it as a super-powerful 'being'. Ultimately, that choice of words cedes the terrain. 7
Mustafa Suleyman: "AI's do not have rights, feelings or consciousness. We must not train them to act as though they do." 8

For subscribers: 1

What do experts think will happen to economic growth under AI? And what do I think?
Planning for American AI supremacy
Fruit flies playing Doom and more

The new growth equilibrium?

The official paywall begins here. In the original, everything under this heading is for paid subscribers only: the three items listed above, and the rest of the newsletter. 1

中文翻译

各位好：

过去十天，感觉 AI 这口锅终于沸腾了。这是一个复杂又令人困惑的时刻。我们得把两件互相矛盾的事同时装进脑子里：大多数美国人似乎厌恶 AI，但企业和消费者对它的喜欢已经足够多——Anthropic 今年的年化收入（annualised revenue）正在逼近 1000 亿美元。而且，尽管有望成为史上增长最快的公司，Anthropic 的管理层却相信，他们可能把自己所有的客户都害死。除此之外还有别的。如果你还没读，可以看我那篇关于 AI 带来的新型控制风险的文章。1

我还越来越担心欧洲的安全局势。有几个国家发出了协调一致的信息，说俄罗斯发动大规模侵略的可能性正在上升。我本周在香港，等回去以后，我会在接下来几期里写这件事。1

不过眼下，我们先试着理清 AI 这口翻腾的大锅。

Azeem

Americans hate AI. Who's to blame?（美国人讨厌 AI。这该怪谁？）

超过六分之一的美国人认为，AI 几乎肯定会毁灭人类。上个月我写过 AI 的火药桶难题。1

（petard 指旧时攻城用来炸开城门的火药桶；英语习语 hoist with one's own petard 意为「被自己布置的炸药炸到」，也就是自食其果。）

今天这些埋火药桶的人，不是《哈姆雷特》里密谋对付丹麦王子的罗森克兰茨与吉尔登斯吞。
他们是 AI 巨头、各家实验室的老板，以及他们背后的投资人。近十年来，这些写软件的人一直在许诺：重新点燃经济增长，让日常生活更轻松、风险更小，甚至可能消灭疾病。要做到这些，他们需要资本：用来写软件，也用来建造运行这些软件的 21 世纪基础设施。收益将如此巨大，所以他们必须快，非常快。1

此后情况变得更糟。Jacob Coxon 那条被疯转的推文，把许多人藏起来的疑虑一下撬了出来。1

Timothy B. Lee（@binarybits）在 2026 年 9 月 17 日转发了这份民调，自己只写了一句话；到这期通讯发出时，这条推文已有 59.7K 浏览：4

这太离谱了。（换我会说「风险非常小」。）

美国人从来就没有特别喜欢过 AI。2020 年，爱德曼信任晴雨表（Edelman Trust Barometer）发现，只有 34% 的美国人相信 AI 会带来正面影响，23% 的人认为它大体上是负面的。到 2024 年，情绪变坏了。爱德曼报告说，只有 19% 的美国人愿意接受 AI，而 50% 的人会反对它。[1] 1

两年的新闻报道、一轮建设热潮，再加上已有四分之一美国成年人每天在用的聊天机器人——公众情绪竟然走到了这一步？1

近一万亿美元埋在地下，换来的是让客户反对自己。就算 Erik Brynjolfsson 的研究显示，AI 在美国带来的消费者剩余（consumer surplus）总和约为 1720 亿美元，也无济于事。1

但即便热情缺缺——这已经是把话说得很轻了——人们还是会继续买 AI 工具。我常去的那家理发店只有四把椅子，最近也装上了 AI 前台来处理预约。两周前我在拉斯维加斯交谈过的那几百位 IT 高管，在继续推进落地上意见完全一致。1

如果美国企业继续买，而美国选民继续讨厌它，这件事最终会在政治场上见分晓。1

以下是我在这个问题上读到的一些更有意思的东西：1

Ben Goertzel 是 AGI（通用人工智能）这个词的创造者，他反对各家实验室呼吁的集中式减速，主张走一条去中心化的、亲社会的路线。6
Jaron Lanier 是 VR 先驱，他在 Steve Bannon 和 Bernie Sanders 联合举办的 AI 活动上发言。他认为，我们谈论 AI 时使用的语言，把它框定成一个能力超群的「存在」；说到底，用词的选择就等于让出了阵地。7
Mustafa Suleyman：「AI 没有权利、感受或意识。我们不能把它们训练得像是有这些东西。」8

订阅用户部分：1

专家们认为，AI 之下的经济增长会怎样？我又怎么看？
为美国的 AI 主导地位做规划
果蝇玩《毁灭战士》（Doom），以及更多内容

The new growth equilibrium?（新的增长均衡？）

官方付费提示从这里开始。在原文中，这个小标题之下的一切——上面列出的三条，以及这一期的其余部分——都只对付费订阅者开放。 1

附注：同日发布的更正短文「To err is human!」

主线通讯之外，作者在同一天还发了一篇没有付费墙的短公告，说明这一期为什么会提前一天到达订阅者的收件箱。它同样是 Exponential View 官方发布的公开内容，全文如下。3

English original

Hi everyone,

Sorry. I accidentally sent Sunday's newsletter out today.

To err is human.

Enjoy it early,

best

Azeem

中文翻译

各位好：

抱歉，我今天不小心把周日的那期通讯提前发了出去。

人非圣贤，孰能无过（To err is human）。

那就早点读吧，

祝好

Azeem

本文目前公开到这里

上面是两篇 Exponential View 官方页面在付费提示之前公开的全部正文。主刊部分止于「The new growth equilibrium?」这个小标题，其后是官方付费提示；「订阅用户部分」列出的三条内容、以及这一期的其余段落属于会员专享，当前页面不可访问，本文不推测补写。1 附注里的那篇更正短文是免费公开的完整文章，不存在缺口。3

购买付费订阅获取完整内容