MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee leads 2-0, and Game 3 hands the ball to the ace it traded away
All 30 clubs ranked with the World Series two games old: Milwaukee's 2-0 lead, the two runs that separate the clubs, FanGraphs and the sportsbook landing within two points of each other, and Game 3 priced the other way.
Tampa Bay scored four runs in the first inning of Game 2 and still lost. Milwaukee has won both World Series games by one run, 3-2 and 5-4, and leads the series 2-0. 1
Game 3 is Monday night at Tropicana Field. Freddy Peralta starts for the Rays: the ALCS MVP, and the pitcher Milwaukee traded away in January. 2
This edition ranks all 30 clubs. Two of them are still playing. The other 28 hold the places they took when their seasons ended.
How this board is built
MLB.com's panel ranked the last four clubs on Oct. 11, and no outlet has published a team ranking since. 3
ESPN's newest all-30 list is its Week 26 edition from Sept. 24. 4 The Athletic's final full list ran Sept. 22. 5
FanGraphs' last ranking post was its postseason edition on Sept. 29. 6
The consequence is that the order behind the top two reflects the season, not the last two weeks.
FanGraphs did refresh its title probabilities at 6:54 a.m. ET Monday. 7
Every score below comes from MLB's game log. 8
Every record and run differential is the final regular-season figure. 9
Two clubs from that Oct. 11 panel are gone. Its order among the two survivors is Milwaukee first, Tampa Bay second.
Clubs whose seasons are over keep the place they held when they were eliminated, grouped by how far they advanced.
The week's games
| Date | Series | Game | Result | After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 19 | ALCS | Game 6 | Tampa Bay 7, Cleveland 3 8 | Rays win the series 4-2 |
| Oct. 23 | World Series | Game 1 | Milwaukee 3, Tampa Bay 2 8 | Brewers lead 1-0 |
| Oct. 24 | World Series | Game 2 | Milwaukee 5, Tampa Bay 4 8 | Brewers lead 2-0 |
Tampa Bay closed out Cleveland at home in Game 6 to reach its third World Series. 10
The board
No club changed places this week. Both clubs that played held their spots, and nothing else has played since.
| Rank | Club | 2026 | Run diff. | Postseason | Last game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brewers | 103-59 | +214 | 9-1 | Oct. 24 |
| 2 | Rays | 98-64 | +86 | 7-4 | Oct. 24 |
| 3 | Guardians | 85-77 | +11 | 5-6 | Oct. 19 |
| 4 | Dodgers | 100-62 | +201 | 3-5 | Oct. 15 |
| 5 | Yankees | 93-68 | +138 | 2-3 | Oct. 7 |
| 6 | Braves | 94-68 | +116 | 3-4 | Oct. 7 |
| 7 | Padres | 91-71 | +41 | 3-3 | Oct. 7 |
| 8 | White Sox | 84-78 | +56 | 4-3 | Oct. 10 |
| 9 | Cubs | 89-73 | +147 | 0-2 | Sept. 30 |
| 10 | Red Sox | 87-75 | +78 | 0-2 | Sept. 30 |
| 11 | Phillies | 88-74 | +15 | 1-2 | Oct. 1 |
| 12 | Astros | 81-81 | -32 | 0-2 | Sept. 30 |
| 13 | Diamondbacks | 86-76 | +9 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 14 | Rangers | 80-82 | -46 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 15 | Pirates | 82-80 | +28 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 16 | Blue Jays | 79-83 | -46 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 17 | Marlins | 80-82 | +3 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 18 | Orioles | 79-82 | -21 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 19 | Cardinals | 77-85 | -29 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 20 | Tigers | 76-86 | +71 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 21 | Nationals | 77-85 | +6 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 22 | Mariners | 76-86 | -58 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 23 | Mets | 74-88 | -32 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 24 | Twins | 77-85 | -58 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 25 | Reds | 75-87 | -160 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 26 | Royals | 69-93 | -120 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 27 | Giants | 65-97 | -91 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 28 | Athletics | 64-98 | -238 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 29 | Angels | 62-100 | -97 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
| 30 | Rockies | 58-104 | -192 | Did not qualify | Sept. 27 |
Postseason records are computed from the game log; the 12 clubs that made the field are the only ones with one. 8
Why nothing moved
Twenty-six of the 30 clubs last played between Sept. 27 and Oct. 10. Los Angeles stopped Oct. 15 and Cleveland Oct. 19. 8
Only Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have taken the field since the last edition. Neither result could lift one of them past the other.
Cleveland sits third because it was the last club eliminated, and because it lost in a series' sixth game rather than its fourth. Los Angeles went out in four straight. 8
Behind them the order is fixed by how deep each club got in October: the Yankees, Braves and Padres in the Division Series, then the Cubs, Red Sox, Phillies and Astros in the Wild Card round. 8
The 18 clubs that never reached October are ordered as they finished the season. Nothing since Sept. 27 has given any of them a reason to move. 9
Milwaukee: two wins from a first title
They have come from behind in seven of those nine wins. 1
Twice now they have erased a four-run deficit: Game 4 of the NLCS at Dodger Stadium, and Game 2 on Saturday. 1 Only four other clubs have done that twice in one postseason.
The bullpen is why the comebacks stick. Milwaukee relievers have a 1.24 ERA across 10 postseason games. 2
They also have eight saves, the first team to reach that total in a single postseason since the save became an official statistic in 1969. 2
A reliever has been credited with the win in eight of the nine victories. 2
Aaron Ashby has not allowed a run in 15⅔ postseason innings, and he closed Game 2 with a five-out save. 2
Game 1 turned on a ninth inning Milwaukee first thought it had won on a double play. A replay review put the runner back on base. 11
Trevor Megill then struck out Jonny DeLuca with two runners in scoring position. 11
Jacob Misiorowski won that game with five innings of one-run ball, opening with a 103.5 mph fastball, the hardest pitch ever thrown in a World Series. 11
Game 2 was Sal Frelick's. He tied it at 4-4 in the sixth with his first home run in 103 plate appearances. 1
Cooper Pratt, a 22-year-old rookie, singled in the go-ahead run in the seventh. 1
Jackson Chourio threw out Liam Hicks at the plate, and William Contreras now leads this postseason with 15 hits. 12
One question is still open. Brandon Woodruff is on the roster and has not pitched, in what would be his first relief outing since 2018. 2
He has not appeared in a game since July 4. 2
Tampa Bay: down 0-2 with its best starter going
The Rays went 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position in Game 1. 11
Game 2 was worse: four runs in the first inning, none after it. 1
Tampa Bay had committed one error in the entire postseason when this series began. On Saturday it made three misplays. 12
Jonathan Aranda was charged with an error and dropped a foul pop, Chandler Simpson dropped a fly ball, and Hicks was thrown out at home. 1
"We got beaten in all phases of the game," DeLuca said. 1
Junior Caminero made the same point about Milwaukee's edge: "if you give up outs, they're gonna do that, they're gonna use that against you." 2
The case for a comeback rests on the mound. Peralta is 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA in his last 10 games, nine of them starts. 2
At Tropicana Field he has a 1.45 ERA in seven starts since arriving in the January trade. 2
He was Milwaukee's ace before that. Yelich was his teammate from 2018 until the deal. 2
Tampa Bay's rotation had a 1.98 ERA in the playoffs when the series opened, the best of the 12 postseason clubs. 12
The Rays' other problem is one no starter can fix: Shane McClanahan is out for the postseason with forearm tightness. 2
Where the model and the market agree
FanGraphs gives Milwaukee an 85.7% chance to win the title, up from 59.1% when the series opened. 712
DraftKings has Milwaukee at -750 and Tampa Bay at +500. 13
Strip the book's margin out and those prices imply about 84% for Milwaukee and 16% for Tampa Bay.
The model and the market are within two points of each other, so the series price is not where a disagreement lives.
Tonight's game is priced the other way. DraftKings makes Tampa Bay -120 and Milwaukee +100 for Game 3, with a total of seven runs. 13
That works out to roughly 52% for the Rays in a game they have to win. A Peralta start is worth that much to the book.
The MVP market has Contreras at +200 and Chourio at +400. Caminero is the shortest-priced Ray at 15-1. 13
What's next
Game 3 is Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, the first World Series game there since Game 2 in 2008. 2
Robert Gasser starts for Milwaukee with one run allowed in nine innings across two postseason starts. 2
He has a 1.51 ERA in eight appearances since Aug. 26. 2
Games 4 and 5 follow Tuesday and Wednesday in St. Petersburg. Games 6 and 7, if needed, are Friday and Saturday in Milwaukee. 14
Of the 57 teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in a World Series, 46 have won it, including 45 of 55 in best-of-seven formats. 2
Tampa Bay has to win four of the last five, starting with three in a row at home. 2
The Rays have been here recently enough to argue with that. They trailed Cleveland 2-1 in the ALCS and won three straight. 2
References
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5MLB Power Rankings — The Athletic
nytimes.com
- 6FanGraphs Power Rankings archive
blogs.fangraphs.com
- 7MLB Playoff Odds 2026: All 30 Teams
fangraphs.com
- 8MLB Stats API schedule, Oct. 19-26, 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 9MLB Stats API final standings, 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
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- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
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