2026-09-14 10:00｜有色金属事件流（20条）
覆盖北京时间2026-09-11 14:00—2026-09-14 10:00完整回溯窗口，收录SHFE与LME库存、官方价格、海外矿山复产、美国宏观及现货升贴水与加工费共20条结构化事件。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260911-warrant-weekly-inventory",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "上期所期货仓单铝铜周去化逾万吨与四千吨，铅锡累库",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T07:06:24Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-11 14:00至2026-09-14 10:00回溯",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-11",
"report_release_evidence": "官方stock_data_list.dat与分品种文件Last-Modified为2026-09-11 15:06:15至15:06:24 CST",
"unit": "吨",
"definition_futures_warrant": "期货仓单：已生成上期所标准交割仓单货物数量，对应交易所交割即可得货源",
"definition_subtotal_inventory": "小计库存：指定交割仓库实际存放的实物库存总量（含未制成仓单货物）",
"daily_warrant_inventory": {
"copper_tonne": 20854,
"copper_daily_change_tonne": -301,
"copper_bc_bonded_tonne": 7000,
"copper_bc_daily_change_tonne": 0,
"aluminium_tonne": 212073,
"aluminium_daily_change_tonne": -1526,
"zinc_tonne": 93201,
"zinc_daily_change_tonne": 546,
"lead_tonne": 59753,
"lead_daily_change_tonne": 1462,
"nickel_tonne": 97549,
"nickel_daily_change_tonne": -677,
"tin_tonne": 6277,
"tin_daily_change_tonne": 704,
"alumina_warehouse_tonne": 267876,
"alumina_warehouse_daily_change_tonne": 900,
"alumina_factory_tonne": 9300,
"alumina_factory_daily_change_tonne": 0,
"alumina_total_tonne": 277176,
"alumina_total_daily_change_tonne": 900,
"casting_aluminium_alloy_tonne": 23104,
"casting_aluminium_alloy_daily_change_tonne": 90
},
"weekly_futures_warrant_change": {
"copper_weekly_change_tonne": -4927,
"aluminium_weekly_change_tonne": -11644,
"zinc_weekly_change_tonne": -2166,
"lead_weekly_change_tonne": 2011,
"nickel_weekly_change_tonne": -1754,
"tin_weekly_change_tonne": 1620,
"alumina_warehouse_weekly_change_tonne": 17097,
"casting_aluminium_alloy_weekly_change_tonne": 275
},
"weekly_subtotal_inventory_change": {
"copper_weekly_change_tonne": -8220,
"aluminium_weekly_change_tonne": -17019,
"zinc_weekly_change_tonne": 1253,
"lead_weekly_change_tonne": -863,
"nickel_weekly_change_tonne": -847,
"tin_weekly_change_tonne": 1153,
"alumina_warehouse_weekly_change_tonne": 7998,
"casting_aluminium_alloy_weekly_change_tonne": 122
},
"arithmetic_closure_audit": "周报第35期本周期货列与日报总计8/8一致；地区小计之和等于总计；周报上周列与第34期本周列8/8一致"
},
"transmission_chain": "上期所铝铜期货仓单周度分别去化11644吨与4927吨→交割即可得显性货源紧缩支撑近月基差→铅与锡仓单增加形成部分对冲但主力品种偏多",
"invalidation_conditions": "下周五收盘后发布的第36期周报显示铝铜期货仓单转入显著累库，或现货升水急跌显示去库并未反映真实需求",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260911/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/weeklystock_20260911/ZH/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "stats-cn-20260914-nonferrous-prices",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "统计局9月上旬生产资料价格出炉，有色四品种环比普涨",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-14T01:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:30:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"release_time_beijing": "2026-09-14 09:30",
"period": "2026年9月上旬比8月下旬",
"unit": "元/吨",
"copper_1_price_yuan_per_tonne": 110492.5,
"copper_1_change_yuan": 1593.2,
"copper_1_change_percent": 1.5,
"aluminium_a00_price_yuan_per_tonne": 24356.3,
"aluminium_a00_change_yuan": 520.6,
"aluminium_a00_change_percent": 2.2,
"lead_1_price_yuan_per_tonne": 16006.3,
"lead_1_change_yuan": 59.9,
"lead_1_change_percent": 0.4,
"zinc_0_price_yuan_per_tonne": 26991.9,
"zinc_0_change_yuan": 901.2,
"zinc_0_change_percent": 3.5,
"monitoring_scope": "全国流通领域9大类50种重要生产资料市场价格，31个省区市近2000家批发商与经销商"
},
"transmission_chain": "国家统计局9月上旬流通领域电解铜、铝、铅、锌批发价环比上涨0.4%至3.5%→现货流通环节采购结算成本上移→对国内有色现货及现货合约中枢形成偏多支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "9月中旬同口径重要生产资料价格指数转为环比下跌，或现货日频升贴水大幅转贴水表明批发价涨势脱离实际供需",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202609/t20260914_1965293.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "pboc-cn-20260914-omo",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "央行9月14日7天逆回购为零，开展5040亿隔夜逆回购",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-14T01:20:30Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:20:30Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"notice_number": "公开市场业务交易公告[2026]第179号",
"release_time_beijing": "2026-09-14 09:20:30",
"repo_7d_tender_billion_yuan": 0,
"repo_7d_winning_billion_yuan": 0,
"repo_overnight_operation_billion_yuan": 5040,
"interest_rate_disclosed": "公告未单独披露隔夜逆回购利率及到期净额",
"neutral_rationale": "未披露当日到期量与净投放规模，期限结构短期化，方向保持中性"
},
"transmission_chain": "公开市场操作转向大额隔夜投放且7天期零操作→银行间超短端流动性投放结构调整→间接影响短端资金利率与宏观流动性预期",
"invalidation_conditions": "央行后续补充披露大额净回笼数据，或次日公开市场操作大幅调整回笼流动性",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.pbc.gov.cn/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125213/125431/125475/2026091409061795132/index.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-uk-20260911-official-prices",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "LME公布9月11日六金属官方价，铜现金买价回落150美元",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"data_valid_date": "11 Sep 2026",
"unit": "USD/metric tonne",
"pricing_structure_note": "LME官方结算价对应Cash Ask，买价对应Cash Bid",
"copper_cash_bid_ask": "14238.00/14238.50",
"copper_3m_bid_ask": "14230.00/14233.00",
"copper_cash_bid_change_vs_prior_day_usd": -150.0,
"aluminium_cash_bid_ask": "3273.00/3274.00",
"aluminium_3m_bid_ask": "3249.00/3250.00",
"zinc_cash_bid_ask": "4013.00/4015.00",
"zinc_3m_bid_ask": "3870.00/3872.00",
"nickel_cash_bid_ask": "16260.00/16270.00",
"nickel_3m_bid_ask": "16410.00/16415.00",
"lead_cash_bid_ask": "1853.50/1854.00",
"lead_3m_bid_ask": "1895.00/1897.00",
"tin_cash_bid_ask": "53750.00/53755.00",
"tin_3m_bid_ask": "53950.00/54000.00"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME铜现金买价单日回落150美元至14238美元/吨→以美元计价的国际铜贸易基准走低→直接拉低国内进口铜进口成本中枢",
"invalidation_conditions": "次一交易日LME官方定盘价强劲反弹收复全部跌幅，或LME官方发布更正定盘公告",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "bls-us-20260911-cpi",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "美国8月CPI同比持平于3.4%，实际平均时薪环比降0.1%",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T12:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T12:30:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"notice_number": "USDL-26-1496 / USDL-26-1497",
"period": "2026年8月",
"cpi_u_monthly_change_percent": 0.4,
"cpi_u_annual_change_percent": 3.4,
"core_cpi_monthly_change_percent": 0.3,
"core_cpi_annual_change_percent": 2.4,
"energy_annual_change_percent": 16.3,
"gasoline_annual_change_percent": 27.4,
"shelter_monthly_change_percent": 0.3,
"real_average_hourly_earnings_monthly_change_percent": -0.1,
"real_average_weekly_earnings_annual_change_percent": 0.3
},
"transmission_chain": "美国8月CPI-U同比持稳于3.4%且实际时薪环比微降0.1%→高通胀黏性限制美联储激进降息空间支撑美元汇率→对美元计价有色金属形成中性偏空压制",
"invalidation_conditions": "BLS在后续月度报告中大幅下修8月CPI终值或季调因子出现重大调整",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm",
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_09112026.htm"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "federalreserve-us-20260911-h8",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "美联储H.8显示工商业贷款周增91亿美元，信贷扩张平稳",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T20:15:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T20:15:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 80,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"release_date": "2026-09-11",
"data_week_ended": "2026-09-02",
"unit": "十亿美元（季调）",
"bank_credit_billion_usd": 19835.3,
"bank_credit_prior_week_billion_usd": 19830.7,
"commercial_industrial_loans_billion_usd": 2965.1,
"commercial_industrial_loans_prior_week_billion_usd": 2956.0,
"commercial_industrial_loans_weekly_increase_billion_usd": 9.1,
"total_assets_billion_usd": 25709.3,
"deposits_billion_usd": 19565.9,
"august_annualized_growth_rates": {
"bank_credit_percent": 4.8,
"commercial_industrial_loans_percent": 18.8
}
},
"transmission_chain": "美联储H.8工商业贷款单周增加91亿美元且8月年化增速达18.8%→美国企业部门银行信贷支持力度增强→为下游用铜用铝行业采购与运营资金提供稳定流动性",
"invalidation_conditions": "美联储在后续H.8周报中对商业信贷数据出现大幅向下修正",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "hkex-au-20260911-mmg-rosebery-output",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "五矿资源上调Rosebery精矿销售上限，产量预估调增至6600吨",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T09:51:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T09:51:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"company": "MMG Limited (HKEX: 01208)",
"mine": "Rosebery Mine (Australia)",
"annual_cap_prior_usd": 150000000,
"annual_cap_revised_usd": 225000000,
"forecast_production_prior_dry_metric_tonnes": 6000,
"forecast_production_revised_dry_metric_tonnes": 6600,
"rationale": "磨矿处理量与铜及贵金属回收率提升，结合铜金银价格上涨，调增持续关连交易年度上限"
},
"transmission_chain": "Rosebery多金属矿山年产量预估由6000干公吨微增至6600干公吨→矿端处理量提升带来极小规模副产精矿增量→对大宗供需中枢影响微弱保持中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "MMG后续发布更正公告或因不可抗力下调Rosebery实际年化产出",
"source_urls": [
"https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0911/2026091100968.pdf"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-uk-20260909-stock-breakdown",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "LME逐仓显示铜库存净流出千吨，注销仓单占比超五成",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T08:00:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report_name": "Metals Reports 09 Sep 2026 (two-day-delayed)",
"data_date": "2026-09-09",
"release_date": "2026-09-11",
"unit": "公吨（metric tonne）",
"copper_closing_stock": 234750,
"copper_delivered_in": 0,
"copper_delivered_out": 1075,
"copper_open_tonnage": 116650,
"copper_cancelled_tonnage": 118100,
"copper_cancelled_ratio_percent": 50.3,
"primary_aluminium_closing_stock": 244350,
"primary_aluminium_delivered_out": 175,
"primary_aluminium_open_tonnage": 239525,
"primary_aluminium_cancelled_tonnage": 4825,
"zinc_closing_stock": 111350,
"zinc_delivered_in": 825,
"zinc_delivered_out": 5150,
"lead_closing_stock": 382375,
"nickel_closing_stock": 271500,
"tin_closing_stock": 5155
},
"transmission_chain": "LME逐仓报表显示铜库存单日净出库1075吨且注销仓单占比超50%→海外现货仓单注销提货活跃表明实物交割偏紧→提振海外现货溢价并对金属价格形成偏多支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续逐仓报表显示LME铜集中大额交仓且注销仓单大幅撤销",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/Lme-api/ReportsListingSearchApi/Download?id=dd15f246-4757-4db7-9340-cab66f8d6c64"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "federalreserve-us-20260911-z1",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "美联储Z.1二季度美国家庭财富增12.8万亿，企业债务平稳",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T16:00:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T16:00:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"release_time_edt": "2026-09-11 12:00 EDT",
"period": "2026年第二季度",
"household_net_worth_increase_trillion_usd": 12.8,
"domestic_nonfinancial_debt_trillion_usd": 84.1,
"domestic_nonfinancial_debt_growth_annualized_percent": 5.2,
"business_debt_growth_annualized_percent": 4.6,
"business_debt_growth_prior_quarter_percent": 7.0,
"private_credit_share_of_corporate_debt_percent": 7.1
},
"transmission_chain": "美联储Z.1显示非金融企业债务年化增速放缓至4.6%且家庭净资产大增12.8万亿美元→企业部门债务扩张节奏趋稳而居民资产端抗风险能力增强→宏观基本面对大宗商品整体估值影响保持中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "美联储在下季度Z.1发布中大幅修正非金融债务增速或家庭资产负债结构",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260911/z1.pdf"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "census-us-20260911-bfs",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "美国8月商业申请量53.17万件，环比下降7.8%",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T14:00:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T14:00:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 80,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"notice_number": "CB26-148",
"release_time_edt": "2026-09-11 10:00 EDT",
"period": "2026年8月",
"business_applications_count": 531728,
"business_applications_monthly_change_percent": -7.8,
"high_propensity_applications_count": 145387,
"high_propensity_monthly_change_percent": -4.1,
"corporate_applications_count": 41075,
"corporate_monthly_change_percent": -8.1
},
"transmission_chain": "美国8月商业申请总量环比回落7.8%→微观新设企业资本开支动能边际放缓→中长期工业金属增量需求预期中性偏弱",
"invalidation_conditions": "下月人口普查局BFS数据出现强劲大幅反弹收复失地",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/pdf/bfs_current.pdf"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "asx-cym-20260914-nifty-cathode-restart",
"event_type": "mine_disruption",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "Cyprium重启Nifty铜矿酸浸试验，预计四季度产出首批阴极铜",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-13T23:50:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:50:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"company": "Cyprium Metals Limited (ASX: CYM)",
"project": "Nifty Copper Project (Phase 1 Restart)",
"asx_release_time_aest": "2026-09-14 09:50",
"acid_leach_milestone": "2009年停产以来首次向现有矿堆注酸，14口井直接注液调试",
"leach_pad_material_accessible_tonnes": 1700000,
"target_commercial_flow_rate": "250立方米/小时及以上",
"phase_1_capacity_tonnes_per_year": 6000,
"target_expanded_capacity_tonnes_per_year": 20000,
"regulatory_approvals_in_place": "公司确认一期重启所需全部监管审批均已到位",
"first_cathode_timeline": "2026年第四季度湿式调试阶段产出"
},
"transmission_chain": "Nifty铜矿一期完成注酸调试且已具备全部监管审批→预计四季度实现年化6000吨阴极铜复产→澳洲区域供给边际增加对远期精炼铜供给预期形成温和压制",
"invalidation_conditions": "现场湿式调试失败导致首块阴极延期，或一期产能指引遭下调",
"source_urls": [
"https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260914/pdf/07421snhhmsw0d.pdf"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-lme-20260911-cash-spreads",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "LME0-3锌升水扩大至156美元，锡贴水收窄至277美元",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-14T01:12:22Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:12:22Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date_lme": "2026-09-11",
"release_time_beijing": "2026-09-14 09:12:22",
"unit": "美元/吨（持仓单位：手）",
"copper_0_3_basis_usd": -10.38,
"copper_position_lots": 274750,
"copper_position_change_lots": 2022,
"copper_basis_change_vs_prior_day_usd": 0.27,
"aluminium_0_3_basis_usd": 24.03,
"aluminium_position_lots": 591979,
"aluminium_position_change_lots": -1739,
"lead_0_3_basis_usd": -42.15,
"lead_position_lots": 171247,
"lead_position_change_lots": 1738,
"zinc_0_3_basis_usd": 156.47,
"zinc_position_lots": 264127,
"zinc_position_change_lots": 3517,
"zinc_basis_change_vs_prior_day_usd": 33.23,
"tin_0_3_basis_usd": -277.68,
"tin_position_lots": 20537,
"tin_position_change_lots": 208,
"tin_basis_change_vs_prior_day_usd": 34.53,
"nickel_0_3_basis_usd": -148.05,
"nickel_position_lots": 246690,
"nickel_position_change_lots": 1134
},
"transmission_chain": "LME0-3锌升水单日大幅扩大33.23美元/吨且锡贴水收窄→海外锌锡现货紧俏度边际上升→对内外盘套利与国内锌锡期货估值形成支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "周一LME开盘后0-3现货升水快速收窄回落至前值以下，或现货大额交仓缓解近端挤仓",
"source_urls": [
"https://news.smm.cn/live/detail/104111655",
"https://news.smm.cn/live/detail/104108937"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-cu-conc-tc",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "Mysteel铜精矿现货TC周指数跌至-211.5美元，环比降9.94",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T09:35:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T09:35:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"period": "2026-09-07至2026-09-11周报",
"reaffirmed_time_beijing": "2026-09-14 08:52 Mysteel铜产业早读同值复述",
"unit": "美元/干吨",
"clean_copper_concentrate_tc_index": -211.5,
"weekly_change_usd": -9.94,
"spot_copper_concentrate_price_usd": 4009,
"spot_price_weekly_change_usd": -13,
"transaction_mode": "固定数字成交增加，市场多以指数扣减成交（集中在减25至26美元/干吨）",
"platform_difference_note": "SMM进口铜精矿周指数变动报-9.39美元/干吨，方向一致幅度微差0.55美元"
},
"transmission_chain": "标准干净铜精矿现货TC进一步跌至-211.5美元/干吨→国内铜冶炼厂现货加工亏损加剧→冶炼端检修减产预期升温并支撑电解铜成本底部",
"invalidation_conditions": "矿山集中放货或下一周度TC指数反弹回到-200美元/干吨上方",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091117/6D09F81F48E237D8.html",
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091408/8302BAE7F5FCFFF7.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-zn-conc-tc",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "国产锌精矿TC跌至-1500~-2200元，进口TC持稳深负区间",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T10:39:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T10:39:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"period": "2026-09-07至2026-09-11周报及9月11日晚间日报合并",
"domestic_50_pct_zinc_tc_range_yuan_per_metal_tonne": "-1500至-2200",
"local_extreme_tc_yuan_per_metal_tonne": "-2500至-2600",
"imported_zinc_tc_usd_per_dry_metric_tonne": "-130至-110",
"imported_tc_comparison_prior_day": "Mysteel日报明确声明进口TC市场主流报价在-130至-110美元/干吨，较上一工作日持平",
"smelter_production_status": "原文记述个别炼厂已明确计划月底停产，炼厂通过放缓补库与安排检修控制成本",
"china_5_ports_concentrate_inventory_tonnes": 188000,
"china_5_ports_weekly_change_tonnes": -10000,
"smelter_concentrate_inventory_tonnes": 498000,
"smelter_concentrate_weekly_change_tonnes": 17000
},
"transmission_chain": "国产锌精矿TC深度下探至-1500~-2200元/金属吨且进口TC持平于深负区间→炼厂加工亏损加剧促使部分企业计划停产检修→原生锌产量预期收紧对锌价成本形成偏多支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "四季度冬储矿石进口到港大幅放量促使国产加工费回升至平水以上",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091118/EF3174F314B4857F.html",
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091118/C68A827D2F87AA77.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-pb-conc-tc",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "铅精矿进口TC持稳-160~-175美元，国内加工费维持低位",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T07:58:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T07:58:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"period": "2026-09-07至2026-09-11周报",
"imported_lead_tc_usd_per_dry_metric_tonne": "-160至-175",
"domestic_lead_tc_huabei_yuan_per_metal_tonne": 200,
"domestic_lead_tc_xibei_yuan_per_metal_tonne": 200,
"domestic_lead_tc_xinan_yuan_per_metal_tonne": 100,
"domestic_lead_tc_huanan_yuan_per_metal_tonne": 100,
"domestic_lead_tc_huazhong_yuan_per_metal_tonne": 200,
"port_concentrate_inventory_tonnes": 48000,
"port_concentrate_weekly_change_tonnes": 7000,
"market_commentary": "Mysteel周报原文评述铅精矿供应偏紧，加工费维持低位运行，冶炼端采购议价空间有限"
},
"transmission_chain": "铅精矿进口TC维持-160~-175美元/干吨深负且国内加工费仅100~200元/金属吨→冶炼端原料采购成本高企压制开工弹性→矿端紧张对铅价形成底部支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "铅精矿港口库存持续累积促使国内加工费反弹或进口TC收窄负值",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091115/6E12EB26A0848A79.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-pb-spot-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "河南电解铅对沪铅2610贴水70-50元，1号铅均价15975元",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T09:45:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T09:45:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 86,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-11",
"unit": "元/吨",
"henan_spot_basis_vs_shfe_2610_yuan_per_tonne": "贴水70-50",
"mysteel_1_lead_price_range_yuan_per_tonne": "15925-16025",
"mysteel_1_lead_midprice_yuan_per_tonne": 15975,
"mysteel_1_lead_daily_change_yuan_per_tonne": -25,
"hunan_smelter_tax_included_ex_factory_yuan_per_tonne": "16000-16050"
},
"transmission_chain": "河南现货电解铅对沪铅近月合约贴水50至70元且均价微跌25元→现货可交割货源维持正常周转→贴水结构反映现货交投平淡支撑中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "下游蓄电池企业大额集中补库促使河南现货基差转为升水结构",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091117/80A1B56AD8274A7B.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-shanghai-20260911-cu-close-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "上海电解铜平水铜报升水30~50元，Back月差拉至700元",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T09:25:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T09:25:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 84,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-11",
"unit": "元/吨",
"shanghai_standard_copper_basis_yuan_per_tonne": "升水30~50",
"shanghai_inferior_copper_basis_yuan_per_tonne": "升水0~20",
"nearby_back_spread_yuan_per_tonne": 700,
"market_status": "铜价大幅跳空低开提振下游点价，交割换月前近月Back月差走阔至700元/吨"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜价急跌激发下游点价接货且近月Back月差走阔至700元/吨→持货商报价谨慎现货平水铜维持升水30至50元→对短期现货贴水提供缓冲支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "交割换月后新主力合约现货报价快速转入大额贴水",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091117/395F86D5D1F97D43.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-shanghai-20260914-cu-morning-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "上海电解铜早盘平水铜转贴水80~0元，非注册贴水走阔",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-14T01:50:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:50:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-14",
"unit": "元/吨（原生表格PNG核验）",
"snapshot_0925": {
"standard_copper_brands": "鲁方+30、紫金+20、金川ISA 0、金川ISA永昌-20、东南铁峰-20",
"standard_copper_basis_range": "-20至+30",
"non_registered_basis_range": "-170至-140"
},
"snapshot_0950": {
"good_copper_brand": "金豚+100",
"standard_copper_brands": "金川ISA 0、金川ISA永昌-20、中条山-30、东南铁峰-60、紫金-70、豫光-80",
"standard_copper_basis_range": "-80至0",
"non_registered_basis_range": "-280至-270"
},
"intra_morning_trend": "平水铜主流区间重心快速下移20至60元/吨并全面转入贴水，非注册铜贴水扩大超百元",
"comparison_prior_date_0925": "9月11日09:25平水铜普遍升水10至20元，非注册-150至-130元"
},
"transmission_chain": "上海早盘平水铜报价重心自-20~+30下移至-80~0元/吨且非注册贴水走阔→周初现货持货商降价出货导致基差承压→压制电解铜现货近端估值",
"invalidation_conditions": "上午盘中下游点价放量促使平水铜品牌报价快速回升至升水区间",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091409/9082AAE149CF5432.html",
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091409/659B7FBB89B62CDD.html",
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091109/B5C2B09ECA97FA98.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-guangdong-20260914-cu-morning-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "广东电解铜早盘铁峰转贴水50~0元，报价较上周五回落",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-14T01:43:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:43:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 86,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-14",
"release_time_beijing": "2026-09-14 09:43",
"unit": "元/吨（原生表格PNG核验）",
"snapshot_0940": {
"good_copper_tiefeng_pc_basis_yuan_per_tonne": "-50至0",
"brand_coverage_note": "好铜铁峰PC为当日早间唯一有效报价品牌，其余品牌均处于观望未报价状态"
},
"comparison_prior_date_0940": "9月11日09:40好铜铁峰PC报升水150元/吨，本期下行150至200元/吨转入贴水区间"
},
"transmission_chain": "广东好铜铁峰PC早盘报价转为贴水50至平水元/吨较上周五回落超150元→华南有效报价品牌挺价意愿减弱→反映区域现货跟盘走弱对现货估值带来偏空压力",
"invalidation_conditions": "盘中仓储提货增加促使广东持货商将升水报价快速调回升水100元/吨上方",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091409/52ECC9BC8A517B0C.html",
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091109/278A6A2F24BD8FFF.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-shanghai-20260911-cu-weekly-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "SMM电解铜升水均价周内回落160元，进口窗口打开补充货源",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T08:43:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T08:43:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"period": "2026-09-07至2026-09-11周评",
"release_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 16:43",
"unit": "元/吨",
"spot_basis_start_of_week_yuan_per_tonne": 225,
"spot_basis_end_of_week_yuan_per_tonne": 65,
"weekly_basis_change_yuan_per_tonne": -160,
"social_inventory_shanghai_tonnes": 58100,
"social_inventory_shanghai_weekly_change_tonnes": 2600,
"social_inventory_jiangsu_tonnes": 18900,
"social_inventory_jiangsu_weekly_change_tonnes": -4300,
"market_drivers": "周初高铜价抑制下游采购，Back结构走阔促使持货商移仓出货，进口窗口罕见打开提振保税及进口货源补充预期"
},
"transmission_chain": "上海1#电解铜现货升水均价自225高位回落至65元/吨且进口窗口打开→保税区与海外货源报关补充预期升温→抑制现货升水反弹高度",
"invalidation_conditions": "进口比价再度恶化导致进口窗口迅速关闭且国内社库重归大幅去库",
"source_urls": [
"https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104111167"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
]This story was produced automatically by a channel. One sentence is all it takes for Neodrop to keep producing for you.