2026-08-31 20:30｜14:30以来沪金银与海外利率更新

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-31T06:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-31T12:30:00Z", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "events": [ { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260831-daily-au9999-close-96200", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Au99.99 收 962 元跌 3.32%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T12:38:38Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -2}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 8 月 31 日每日行情：Au99.99 开盘价 993.00 CNY/g，最高价 1000.00 CNY/g，最低价 951.00 CNY/g，收盘价 962.00 CNY/g，涨跌-33.05 CNY/g，涨跌幅-3.32%，加权平均价 959.83 CNY/g，成交量 4790.18 kg，成交金额 4597775610.60 CNY。原文日期：2026-08-31；页面未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "上金所 Au99.99 收盘 962.00 CNY/g 且日跌幅 3.32%→国内现货黄金日终报价走弱→AU 日内价格方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所修正 2026-08-31 Au99.99 每日行情或发布同口径更正收盘价时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-31&end_date=2026-08-31"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AG-20260831-daily-agtd-close-16312", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Ag(T+D)收 16312 元跌 3.15%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T12:38:38Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": -2}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 8 月 31 日每日行情：Ag(T+D)开盘价 17090.00 CNY/kg，最高价 17500.00 CNY/kg，最低价 16010.00 CNY/kg，收盘价 16312.00 CNY/kg，涨跌-531.00 CNY/kg，涨跌幅-3.15%，加权平均价 16442.00 CNY/kg，成交量 396904.00 kg，成交金额 6526116958.00 CNY，市场持仓 2827838 手，交收方向空支付给多，交收量 7620 手。原文日期：2026-08-31；页面未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "上金所 Ag(T+D)收盘 16312.00 CNY/kg 且日跌幅 3.15%→国内白银延期合约日终报价走弱→AG 日内价格方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所修正 2026-08-31 Ag(T+D)每日行情或发布同口径更正收盘价时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-31&end_date=2026-08-31"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260831-daily-subtotal-volume-807009", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上期所黄金汇总成交 807009 手持仓减 2133 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T12:38:38Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海期货交易所 2026 年 8 月 31 日官方日交易快讯，黄金全部合约小计：成交量 807009 手，持仓量 377050 手，持仓变动-2133 手，成交额 78995021248 元。原文交易日：2026-08-31；快讯未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "上期所黄金全部合约成交量 807009 手且持仓量 377050 手、持仓变动-2133 手→日内交易活跃但未形成持仓扩张→AU 期货增量方向中性", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正 2026-08-31 黄金全部合约小计的成交量、持仓量、持仓变动或成交额时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260831.dat"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260831-daily-subtotal-volume-2005308", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上期所白银汇总成交 2005308 手持仓减 6421 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T12:38:38Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海期货交易所 2026 年 8 月 31 日官方日交易快讯，白银全部合约小计：成交量 2005308 手，持仓量 549701 手，持仓变动-6421 手，成交额 50192091435 元。原文交易日：2026-08-31；快讯未提供精确发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "上期所白银全部合约成交量 2005308 手且持仓量 549701 手、持仓变动-6421 手→日内交易活跃但未形成持仓扩张→AG 期货增量方向中性", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正 2026-08-31 白银全部合约小计的成交量、持仓量、持仓变动或成交额时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260831.dat"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260831-middleeast-fedwatch-62", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "路透：9 月加息押注升至 62%金银分化", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T10:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T10:46:32.493Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "Reuters 稿件标题为 Gold dips as Fed rate-hike bets rise, still heads for best month since January；文章发布时间 2026-08-31T07:26:09.838Z，更新于 2026-08-31T10:46:32.493Z。原文截至 1030 GMT：现货黄金报 4448.19 USD/oz，跌 0.1%；美国 12 月期金报 4498.90 USD/oz，跌 0.7%；现货白银报 67.00 USD/oz，涨 1%；交易员对美国 9 月加息的押注由凯文·沃什讲话前约 36%升至 62%，数据来源为 CME FedWatch Tool；原文还称中东再次发生袭击，美国袭击霍尔木兹海峡上的伊朗岛屿后伊朗报复，油价周一涨逾 3%。", "transmission_chain": "中东袭击推高通胀担忧且美联储主席鹰派表态令 9 月加息押注由约 36%升至 62%→美国利率路径与实际收益率上行预期增强→AU/AG 利率驱动信号偏空，现货银在该时点仍上涨", "invalidation_conditions": "路透更正 1030 GMT 金银报价、9 月加息概率或中东事件叙述，或 CME FedWatch 同窗口数据与之冲突时，本事件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-near-two-week-low-fed-chiefs-hawkish-stance-2026-08-31/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-near-two-week-low-fed-chiefs-hawkish-stance-2026-08-31/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-near-two-week-low-fed-chiefs-hawkish-stance-2026-08-31/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-near-two-week-low-fed-chiefs-hawkish-stance-2026-08-31/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "item": "GLD/SLV 持仓日变动（2026-08-31）", "status": "未交付", "detail": "本轮核验 SPDR Gold Shares 官方页与 iShares Silver Trust 官方页，两页最新可比数据均为 2026-08-28：GLD 黄金持仓 33512833.02 盎司、总发行份额 365300000；SLV 存银 493832733.20 盎司、流通份额 546350000，未出现 2026-08-31 新日期或前一日可比值，因此无法核验本窗口日变动。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))"] }, { "item": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动（2026-08-31）", "status": "未交付", "detail": "本轮尝试 CME Gold Stocks 与 Silver Stocks 官方下载文件，均返回 403；CME Historical Registrar Reports 页面仅列出文件链接，未提供报告日期或 registered、eligible 数值，故无法核验分级库存变动，未使用搜索摘要或不可核验转述替代。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))"] } ] }