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All three of Thursday's closest longs failed; fourteen of forty-four setups are past invalidation
2026-10-23

All three of Thursday's closest longs failed; fourteen of forty-four setups are past invalidation

Friday's close broke the three invalidations that sat closest to failing on Thursday, taking the past-invalidation count to fourteen of the 44 setups, while Baker Hughes climbed back over its stop and Boot Barn's short went back to work.

Wave Setups Watch
Wave Setups Watch@dbojkov
Prices are the regular-session closes of Friday 23 October 2026: 4:00 p.m. in New York and Toronto, and the 4:39 p.m. London close for Fresnillo.
The levels come from a screen captured on 16 October, which carries the 44 setups on this watchlist, each with a support, an invalidation, a resistance and a target. A close under a long setup's invalidation fails that setup, and a close back over it restores the setup.
Seven rows are shorts, and the same levels read in reverse on them. Price under the support means the trade is working, a close back over that support stalls it, and a close through the target fills it.
Six rows changed state at this close, five of them by closing through a published level.
All three longs that sat closest to failing on Thursday did fail. OceanaGold finished Thursday 0.34% above its 35.25 invalidation, First Majestic (AG) 0.79% above 15.00 and Impala Platinum 0.95% above 10.45; each closed under its level today.
Fourteen of the 44 rows now sit past invalidation, up from twelve. The count has run seven, twelve and fourteen across the last three closes.
One failed setup came back. Baker Hughes (BKR) recovered the 55.00 invalidation it lost on Thursday and closed four cents under its 55.90 support.
State22 October23 OctoberChange
Past invalidation1214+2
Below support, invalidation intact119−2
At support (within 2% above it)220
Clear of support87−1
Short working45+1
Short past target220
No usable price or levels550
Total4444
Nine rows sit below support with their invalidation intact, down from eleven. Two are inside the 2% band above support, OR and Copa Holdings, where Thursday's two were OR and BOOT. Seven rows are clear of it, five shorts are working and two sit past their target.
SetupCloseDayLevel crossedLevel vs closeNext aboveNext below
OceanaGold, longC$34.67−1.98%35.25 invalidation+1.67%38.23 support, +10.27%none published
First Majestic, long14.77−2.31%15.00 invalidation+1.56%17.75 support, +20.18%none published
Impala Platinum, long10.30−2.37%10.45 invalidation+1.46%11.89 support, +15.44%none published
BKR, long55.86+4.18%55.00 invalidation, crossed upward−1.54%55.90 support, +0.07%55.00 invalidation, −1.54%
Copa Holdings, long131.38−2.58%131.00 support, entering the 2% band−0.29%145.25 resistance, +10.56%124.80 invalidation, −5.01%
BOOT, short115.18−3.82%117.64 support, back under it+2.14%143.87 resistance, +24.91%112.48 target, −2.34%
Level distances are the level as a percentage of Friday's close: a plus sign puts the level over the close and a minus sign under it. Rows run in order of severity, the new invalidations first with the deepest past its level leading, then the support break, then the name that slipped into the band, then the short that started working. Where a row reads none published, the screen lists no level on that side.

OceanaGold, First Majestic and Impala Platinum lose their invalidations

OceanaGold closed at C$34.67, down 1.98%, which leaves it 1.67% under the 35.25 invalidation 1. The shares opened at C$35.00, traded up to C$35.80 and closed near a C$34.37 low.
Thursday's C$35.37 was the closest any live long sat to its invalidation. Support at 38.23 now sits 10.27% above the close, and the screen publishes nothing below 35.25.
First Majestic closed at 14.77, down 2.31%, 1.56% under its 15.00 invalidation 2. It opened at 14.96, reached 15.08 and finished 32 cents above its 14.45 low.
The row has been under its 17.75 support at every close, and this is its first close under the invalidation. That support sits 20.18% above the close.
Impala Platinum closed at 10.30, down 2.37%, 1.46% under its 10.45 invalidation 3. Its quote page stamps that price 3:59:23 p.m. as an OTC Markets delayed quote, and the session ran from 10.13 to 10.50.
Thursday's 10.55 was 0.95% above the level. Support at 11.89 sits 15.44% above the close, and nothing is published below 10.45.
Each of the three traded above its invalidation earlier in the session and closed below it, so each close is the break.

BKR climbs back over its invalidation

BKR closed at 55.86, up 4.18%, back above the 55.00 invalidation it lost on Thursday 4. It is the only row to leave the past-invalidation group today.
The session high of 55.89 stopped one cent under the 55.90 support, which leaves the row just under its level rather than through it. A close above 55.90 would put the setup back where it stood on Wednesday.
The 55.00 invalidation now sits 1.54% under the close. Resistance at 61.70 sits 10.45% above the close, and the 79.00 target 41.42% above it.

Copa slips into the support band and BOOT's short starts working

Copa Holdings closed at 131.38, down 2.58%, 0.29% above its 131.00 support 5. It traded down to 129.84 and closed back over it, so the support held at the close.
Thursday's close of 134.86 was 2.95% above support, and the 2% band tops out at 133.62. The 124.80 invalidation sits 5.01% under the close.
BOOT closed at 115.18, down 3.82%, 2.14% under the 117.64 support its short is published against 6. Thursday's 119.76 had reclaimed the level, and one session later the short is working again.
Its 112.48 low matched the 112.48 target exactly and the close stayed 2.34% above it. That target fills on a close below it, and the session produced a print at the level instead.

The metals fell more gently, and the energy rows rose

Nineteen of the 20 commodity rows carrying a price closed lower, and UROY, up 1.48%, was the only one that rose. The median move across the 19 miners and metals funds was −1.70%, against −5.63% on Thursday.
Fresnillo fell 6.21% to 2,309p, the worst of the 20, and it has been past its 2,500p invalidation since Thursday 7.
BE fell 11.24% to 193.30, the largest fall on the list today, without crossing a level. Its short is working and the 135.00 target sits 30.16% below the close 8.
Five9 rose 7.15% to 37.61 9, and the energy rows rose together: Range Resources 3.78% 10, EOG 3.21% 11 and Chevron 2.88% 12.
EOG's session high of 165.11 cleared its 163.40 target, and the close of 163.03 finished 0.23% under it. That is a print at the level rather than a fill.

The rest of the list

Eleven rows were past invalidation before today and still are: MP, GDXJ, MUX, HL, SILJ, Fresnillo, RIO, WRN, REMX, UAL and ARM.
Eight more sit below support with their invalidation intact: AU, TFPM, SBSW, UROY, AGI, DBA, AMZN and SYM. AMZN is the closest to failing, with 246.00 sitting 0.81% under its close of 248.00 13.
Seven rows are clear of support: CGAU, TSLA, BAH, RRC, EOG, FIVN and MELI.
Five shorts are working: BE, HROW, AMAT, LRCX and BOOT. FLEX and Ford sit past their targets.
OR sits 0.15% above its 32.80 support, the other row inside the 2% band 14.
Of the eleven rows that were already failing, UAL is the closest to recovering: 6.71% under the 104.50 invalidation it has closed below every session this week 15.
ARM closed at 210.33, 0.11% higher on the day and 6.93% under its 224.90 invalidation 16.

Five rows without a usable price

Five rows carry no usable price or level: CIGO, PLE, HGE, the Chevron row and the long setup on the E row.
CIGO and PLE return no quote from the price feed, and HGE returns a zero-filled record, which is missing data rather than a price of zero.
Chevron closed at 233.21 against levels running from 43.65 to 80.00, while the screen's own price column reads 61.68 for that row 12. The row stays unscored.
The E row's long setup is the fifth: its levels run from 9.00 to 54.60, which match no live Ford price.
The E ticker fills two of the screen's rows, one long and one short, and the short is scored on Ford. Ford closed at 11.60, its fourth close under the 12.20 target, which keeps that short target filled 17. The level sits 5.17% above the close. NYSE ticker E is Eni, at 62.08, which matches neither row's levels 18.

The levels are seven days old

Seven days separate the 16 October screen from this close, and no level on the list has been refreshed since. A level turns stale here once its screen is thirty days old, which lands on 15 November.

What Monday's close decides

BKR's 55.90 support sits 0.07% over the close, the nearest level on the list. A close above it clears the row, and a close below leaves the setup under support.
OR's 32.80 sits 0.15% under the close, so a close below it turns that row from at-support into a break.
EOG needs 163.40, 0.23% above the close, to fill a target it has already traded through. DBA needs 28.00, 0.47% above, to reclaim the support it lost on Thursday, with its 27.05 invalidation another 2.94% lower.
AMZN is 0.81% from failing its 246.00 invalidation.
Undoing today's three failures takes 1.67% for OceanaGold to close back over 35.25, 1.56% for AG to retake 15.00 and 1.46% for Impala Platinum to reach 10.45. Each of the three fell further than that today.
BOOT's short stalls again on a close above 117.64, 2.14% higher.

References

  1. 1
    OceanaGold (OGC.TO) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  2. 2
    First Majestic Silver (AG) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  3. 3
    Impala Platinum (IMPUY) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  4. 4
    Baker Hughes (BKR) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  5. 5
    Copa Holdings (CPA) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  6. 6
    Boot Barn (BOOT) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  7. 7
    Fresnillo (FRES.L) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  8. 8
    Bloom Energy (BE) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  9. 9
    Five9 (FIVN) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  10. 10
    Range Resources (RRC) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  11. 11
    EOG Resources (EOG) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  12. 12
    Chevron (CVX) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  13. 13
    Amazon (AMZN) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  14. 14
    OR Royalties (OR) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  15. 15
    United Airlines (UAL) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  16. 16
    Arm Holdings (ARM) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  17. 17
    Ford (F) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

  18. 18
    Eni (E) quote, Yahoo Finance

    finance.yahoo.com

Wave Setups Watch
Wave Setups Watch@dbojkov

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Related content

  • OceanaGold, First Majestic and Impala Platinum lose their invalidations
  • BKR climbs back over its invalidation
  • Copa slips into the support band and BOOT's short starts working
  • The metals fell more gently, and the energy rows rose
  • The rest of the list
  • Five rows without a usable price
  • The levels are seven days old
  • What Monday's close decides