2026-09-02 13:00|有色金属事件流(4条)

2026-09-02 13:00|有色金属事件流(4条)

覆盖北京时间2026-09-02 11:00至13:00新增的华北铜、区域铜、上海锌和电解镍现货升贴水;SHFE 2026-09-02仓单截至13:10仍未发布。

[
  {
    "event_id": "smm-northchina-20260902-copper-basis",
    "title": "SMM华北铜升水均价较上日增25元/吨",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-02T03:15:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T03:15:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "direction_score_scope": "-3至+3,仅对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子;0为中性",
      "confidence_basis": "100分基准;Tier B扣4分;原生页面发布时间只精确到分钟扣1分;结果95分",
      "source_tier_semantics": "A=官方或公司原始披露;B=SMM或Mysteel数值详情",
      "window_start_bjt": "2026-09-02 11:00",
      "window_end_bjt": "2026-09-02 13:00",
      "publication_time_bjt": "2026-09-02 11:15:00",
      "market": "华北",
      "metal": "铜",
      "reference_contract": "当月合约",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "premium_range": [
        100,
        210
      ],
      "premium_mean": 155,
      "change_vs_previous_trading_day": 25,
      "source_detail_id": "104092937"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "华北1#电解铜对当月合约升水均价较上一交易日提高25元/吨至155元/吨 → 华北现货相对当月合约的报价增强 → 这项局部信号对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子记为+1。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "SMM更正2026-09-02华北铜升水区间、均价、日变化或合约口径时,按更正值重算。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104092937"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-shanghai-20260902-zinc-basis",
    "title": "上海现货锌对沪锌2610贴水40元/吨",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-02T03:35:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T03:35:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "direction_score_scope": "-3至+3,仅对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子;0为中性",
      "confidence_basis": "100分基准;Tier B扣4分;缺少同口径前一交易日数值扣2分;结果94分",
      "source_tier_semantics": "A=官方或公司原始披露;B=SMM或Mysteel数值详情",
      "window_start_bjt": "2026-09-02 11:00",
      "window_end_bjt": "2026-09-02 13:00",
      "publication_time_bjt": "2026-09-02 11:35:00",
      "market": "上海",
      "metal": "锌",
      "reference_contract": "沪锌2610合约",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "market_quote_premium_discount": -40,
      "domestic_zinc_ingot_premium_range": [
        50,
        60
      ],
      "daily_change_disclosed": false,
      "source_detail_id": "E11AC25F68A914F6"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "上海市场综合报价和国产锌锭报价均以沪锌2610合约为基准,前者贴水40元/吨,后者升水50至60元/吨 → 两个报价口径相差90至100元/吨 → 详情缺少各自的前一交易日数值,本项对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子记为0。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正2026-09-02上海锌升贴水数字、合约口径或国产锌锭报价范围时,按更正值重算。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090211/E11AC25F68A914F6.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-china-20260902-nickel-basis",
    "title": "金川1#镍升水均值1600元/吨、较上日持平",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-02T03:43:37Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T03:43:37Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "direction_score_scope": "-3至+3,仅对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子;0为中性",
      "confidence_basis": "100分基准;Tier B扣4分;公开部分未说明现货升贴水的参考基准扣2分;结果94分",
      "source_tier_semantics": "A=官方或公司原始披露;B=SMM或Mysteel数值详情",
      "window_start_bjt": "2026-09-02 11:00",
      "window_end_bjt": "2026-09-02 13:00",
      "publication_time_bjt": "2026-09-02 11:43:37",
      "market_scope": "国内",
      "metal": "镍",
      "reference_basis_disclosed": false,
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "jinchuan_1_premium_mean": 1600,
      "jinchuan_1_change_vs_previous_trading_day": 0,
      "mainstream_electrodeposited_nickel_premium_discount_range": [
        -200,
        500
      ],
      "source_detail_id": "104093033"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "金川1#电解镍现货升水均值较上一交易日持平在1600元/吨 → 金川货源升水这一日度指标未变化 → 本项对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子记为0;主流电积镍区间只作为当前截面保留,不参与方向评分。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "SMM更正2026-09-02金川1#电解镍均值、日变化或主流电积镍区间时,按更正值重算。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://news.smm.cn/live/detail/104093033"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-china-20260902-copper-basis",
    "title": "Mysteel铜升水11地中10地回落",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-02T04:00:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-02T04:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 96,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "direction_score_scope": "-3至+3,仅对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子;0为中性",
      "confidence_basis": "100分基准;Tier B扣4分;区域速递当前值与前值完整,五地经11:07行情表交叉核对,广东方向经SMM交叉核对;结果96分",
      "source_tier_semantics": "A=官方或公司原始披露;B=SMM或Mysteel数值详情",
      "window_start_bjt": "2026-09-02 11:00",
      "window_end_bjt": "2026-09-02 13:00",
      "latest_publication_time_bjt": "2026-09-02 12:00:00",
      "metal": "铜",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "mysteel_regional_1_copper_premium_as_reported": {
        "shanghai": {
          "range": [
            250,
            440
          ],
          "mean": 345,
          "previous_mean": 500,
          "change": -155
        },
        "jiangsu": {
          "range": [
            280,
            450
          ],
          "mean": 365,
          "previous_mean": 490,
          "change": -125
        },
        "shandong": {
          "range": [
            200,
            270
          ],
          "mean": 235,
          "previous_mean": 315,
          "change": -80
        },
        "jiangxi": {
          "range": [
            300,
            400
          ],
          "mean": 350,
          "previous_mean": 465,
          "change": -115
        },
        "tianjin": {
          "range": [
            160,
            220
          ],
          "mean": 190,
          "previous_mean": 250,
          "change": -60
        },
        "guangdong": {
          "range": [
            160,
            260
          ],
          "mean": 210,
          "previous_mean": 240,
          "change": -30
        },
        "hubei": {
          "range": [
            380,
            380
          ],
          "mean": 380,
          "previous_mean": 500,
          "change": -120
        },
        "anhui": {
          "range": [
            300,
            450
          ],
          "mean": 375,
          "previous_mean": 530,
          "change": -155
        },
        "henan": {
          "range": [
            160,
            200
          ],
          "mean": 180,
          "previous_mean": 260,
          "change": -80
        },
        "chongqing": {
          "range": [
            0,
            280
          ],
          "mean": 140,
          "previous_mean": 140,
          "change": 0
        },
        "liaoning": {
          "range": [
            160,
            180
          ],
          "mean": 170,
          "previous_mean": 220,
          "change": -50
        }
      },
      "mysteel_comparison_basis": "12:00区域速递同表列出2026-09-02与2026-09-01均值;11个地区沿用页面原始报价口径",
      "mysteel_contract_scope": "11:07行情表明确上海、广东、天津、重庆、山东对2609合约;12:00区域速递未显示江苏、江西、湖北、安徽、河南、辽宁的合约字段",
      "aggregation_rule": "只比较每个地区在同一张区域速递表中的2026-09-02均值与2026-09-01均值;不同地区的绝对升水水平不作横向比较",
      "smm_guangdong_current_month_premium": {
        "high_grade": {
          "premium": 260,
          "change": -30
        },
        "standard_grade": {
          "premium": 180,
          "change": -10
        },
        "hydrometallurgical_grade": {
          "premium": 110,
          "change": -20
        }
      },
      "source_detail_ids": [
        "69497C551BBE5521",
        "22539228D1E9FFB3",
        "104093211"
      ]
    },
    "transmission_chain": "Mysteel按各地区自身的9月2日与9月1日同表均值比较,11个地区中10个下降、重庆持平;SMM广东三类货源的日变化也均为负 → 各自已披露口径下,多数区域与广东三类货源的升水日变化方向为负 → 铜现货支撑走弱,本项对SSE.512400相关有色金属篮子记为-1。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel更正2026-09-02区域铜升水、比较基准或合约口径,或SMM更正广东三类货源升水时,按更正值重算。",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090212/69497C551BBE5521.html",
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090211/22539228D1E9FFB3.html",
      "https://news.smm.cn/news/104093211"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  }
]

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