MLB Power Rankings Week 22: Milwaukee stays No. 1 as Philadelphia surges and Detroit slides
A current Aug. 17–23 snapshot of all 30 MLB teams: Milwaukee holds No. 1, Philadelphia surges, Detroit slides, and the rankings are tested against injuries, run-based metrics, FanGraphs odds and WAR, and the next seven days.
Milwaukee remains the clearest No. 1 after a 7-3 week and the best run profile in the league. Philadelphia is the major upward story: a nine-game winning streak has moved the Phillies from 10th to eighth in this composite. Detroit goes the other way, falling from 13th to 15th after a 2-8 week, even though its +73 run differential still points to a much stronger team than its record. This issue covers games through Sunday, Aug. 23, 2026. 12
How the composite works
The table combines three in-window ordinal lists: ESPN, published Aug. 20; The Athletic, published Aug. 18; and MLB.com, published for the week of Aug. 23. The Athletic used tied slots in several places; those displayed positions count as the slot in the average. The composite breaks equal averages with current record, run differential, MLB's expected record, and last-10 form. 234
FanGraphs supplies the current analytics layer: playoff odds and the updated WAR leaderboard. FanGraphs' latest accessible ordinal article covers Aug. 10-16, so it is outside this issue's Aug. 17-23 ranking window and is excluded from the ordinal average.
RD means run differential, X-W/L means MLB's expected record, and Pyth% is calculated from MLB's runs scored and allowed with a 1.83 exponent. 567All 30 teams ranked
E / A / M means ESPN / The Athletic / MLB.com. The movement column compares this composite with Week 21.| Rank | Team | Source ranks (E / A / M) | Record / L10 / streak | RD / X-W/L / Pyth% | Move | Week 22 read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1 / 1 / 1 234 | 81-50 · 7-3 · W1 1 | +161 / 82-49 / 62.7% 1 | — | The only unanimous No. 1, with the league's best record, run margin, and expected record. |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 / 2 / 2 234 | 80-51 · 7-3 · W6 1 | +151 / 81-50 / 61.8% 1 | — | Los Angeles has won six straight and still owns a top-two run profile while waiting for major reinforcements. |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 3 / 3 / 4 234 | 76-55 · 3-7 · W1 1 | +110 / 77-54 / 58.9% 1 | ▲1 (4→3) | Atlanta's run margin keeps it above Tampa Bay in the three-list average despite a 3-7 week. |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 / T-5 / 3 234 | 77-53 · 3-7 · W1 1 | +44 / 70-60 / 53.6% 1 | ▼1 (3→4) | Tampa Bay still has the AL's best record, but its -4 run differential over the past week and 70-60 expected record temper the ranking. |
| 5 | Chicago Cubs | 5 / 4 / 5 234 | 75-56 · 4-6 · W1 1 | +115 / 76-55 / 58.3% 1 | — | Pete Crow-Armstrong's 8.7 FanGraphs WAR gives Chicago the league's leading individual performance. 6 |
| 6 | New York Yankees | 6 / T-5 / 6 234 | 74-56 · 6-4 · W1 1 | +100 / 76-54 / 58.6% 1 | ▲1 (7→6) | The Yankees move back into the top six on a strong run profile while Aaron Judge and Max Fried work toward returns. |
| 7 | Boston Red Sox | 7 / 7 / 8 234 | 71-59 · 7-3 · W3 1 | +99 / 76-54 / 58.3% 1 | ▼1 (6→7) | Boston's 7-3 week and 76-54 expected record keep the Red Sox close to the top tier despite the one-place composite drop. |
| 8 | Philadelphia Phillies | 8 / T-8 / 7 234 | 73-58 · 9-1 · W9 1 | +27 / 68-63 / 52.1% 1 | ▲2 (10→8) | Philadelphia's nine-game winning streak is the clearest form-driven rise in the top half. |
| 9 | San Diego Padres | 9 / 10 / 9 234 | 71-60 · 7-3 · W3 1 | +16 / 67-64 / 51.3% 1 | ▲2 (11→9) | San Diego keeps rising on a 7-3 week and a current playoff case, though its modest run margin leaves room for caution. |
| 10 | Chicago White Sox | 10 / T-8 / 10 234 | 68-62 · 6-4 · W1 1 | +43 / 69-61 / 53.3% 1 | ▼1 (9→10) | Chicago leads the AL Central with a winning run profile, but the composite remains split between ninth and 10th. |
| 11 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 / T-11 / 11 234 | 69-62 · 5-5 · W1 1 | +9 / 66-65 / 50.7% 1 | ▼3 (8→11) | Arizona's 5-5 week and new Michael Soroka injury add pressure to a team with a 31.6% FanGraphs playoff probability. 58 |
| 12 | Houston Astros | 12 / 14 / 12 234 | 65-66 · 4-6 · L2 1 | -44 / 61-70 / 46.7% 1 | — | Houston stays 12th because the source lists and the below-.500 run profile tell the same middle-tier story. |
| 13 | Miami Marlins | 15 / T-11 / 14 234 | 67-64 · 5-5 · W3 1 | +21 / 68-63 / 51.7% 1 | ▲1 (14→13) | Miami's positive run margin and three-game streak support a small rise, while the 5-5 week keeps the move measured. |
| 14 | St. Louis Cardinals | 13 / T-16 / 13 234 | 66-66 · 5-5 · L3 1 | -2 / 66-66 / 49.8% 1 | ▲2 (16→14) | St. Louis rises on the combined source view, but flexor and elbow injuries have thinned the pitching staff. |
| 15 | Detroit Tigers | 14 / 13 / 17 234 | 61-69 · 2-8 · L5 1 | +73 / 73-57 / 56.0% 1 | ▼2 (13→15) | Detroit's run profile still looks like a contender, but five straight losses and a 4.9% playoff probability expose the roster gap. 5 |
| 16 | Baltimore Orioles | 16 / 15 / 19 234 | 63-68 · 5-5 · L1 1 | -35 / 62-69 / 47.3% 1 | ▲3 (19→16) | Baltimore gains from the wider source range, while the -35 differential keeps the rise below the fringe-contender tier. |
| 17 | Toronto Blue Jays | 18 / 18 / 15 234 | 64-68 · 5-5 · L1 1 | -55 / 60-72 / 45.4% 1 | ▲3 (20→17) | Toronto's source ranks reward the current middle, but the -55 differential and 18.4% playoff probability keep the climb fragile. 5 |
| 18 | Texas Rangers | 17 / 23 / 16 234 | 65-66 · 5-5 · W1 1 | -46 / 60-71 / 46.1% 1 | ▼3 (15→18) | Texas falls on a 5-5 week and the largest source disagreement in the middle, with The Athletic at 23. |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21 / T-16 / 21 234 | 63-69 · 5-5 · L3 1 | +25 / 68-64 / 51.8% 1 | ▲3 (22→19) | Pittsburgh's +25 run differential and 68-64 expected record are stronger than its actual ledger, even after a three-game skid. |
| 20 | Cleveland Guardians | 20 / 21 / 18 234 | 65-66 · 6-4 · W4 1 | -9 / 64-67 / 49.2% 1 | ▼3 (17→20) | Cleveland's four-game streak cannot erase a -9 margin, a losing record, and The Athletic's warning about the offense. 4 |
| 21 | Minnesota Twins | 19 / 22 / 20 234 | 63-68 · 4-6 · L3 1 | -54 / 60-71 / 46.1% 1 | ▼3 (18→21) | Minnesota's run profile and 4-6 week both point down, with Joe Ryan still working back toward the rotation. |
| 22 | Seattle Mariners | 22 / 19 / 22 234 | 62-69 · 6-4 · L1 1 | -61 / 59-72 / 44.9% 1 | ▲1 (23→22) | Seattle has won six of 10, but the -61 run differential remains the strongest brake on a larger rise. |
| 23 | Washington Nationals | 23 / 20 / 23 234 | 61-71 · 2-8 · L4 1 | +10 / 67-65 / 50.7% 1 | ▼2 (21→23) | Washington's positive run profile is overwhelmed by a 2-8 week and the continued absence of CJ Abrams and James Wood. |
| 24 | New York Mets | 25 / 24 / 24 234 | 59-72 · 6-4 · L1 1 | -40 / 61-70 / 46.8% 1 | — (24→24) | New York's 6-4 stretch keeps the Mets level, while the -40 differential limits the ceiling. |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds | 24 / 25 / 25 234 | 62-69 · 3-7 · L1 1 | -94 / 56-75 / 42.7% 1 | — (25→25) | Cincinnati holds the same place because its source ranks are steady, while its -94 margin and 3-7 week keep the floor low. |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 26 / 27 / 26 234 | 58-74 · 9-1 · W8 1 | -91 / 57-75 / 43.2% 1 | ▲1 (27→26) | Kansas City owns the week's best record outside Philadelphia, but the -91 run differential still describes a rebuilding-level season. |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | 27 / 26 / 27 234 | 52-78 · 2-8 · L4 1 | -80 / 57-73 / 43.5% 1 | ▼1 (26→27) | San Francisco's 2-8 week and -80 run differential leave no case for a move up. |
| 28 | Colorado Rockies | T-28 / T-28 / 29 234 | 50-80 · 3-7 · L6 1 | -136 / 53-77 / 41.0% 1 | — (28→28) | Colorado's three wins in 10 games are outweighed by the league's second-worst run margin and a six-game losing streak. |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels | 30 / T-28 / 28 234 | 52-79 · 5-5 · L1 1 | -70 / 58-73 / 44.4% 1 | — (29→29) | The Angels' 58-73 expected record is better than the actual mark, but the team remains second from last. |
| 30 | Athletics | 29 / 30 / 30 234 | 51-80 · 4-6 · W2 1 | -187 / 49-82 / 37.3% 1 | — (30→30) | The Athletics remain last by a wide run margin, with Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, and Tyler Soderstrom all carrying season-level injury losses. 8 |
The moves that changed the board
Philadelphia has finally converted pressure into wins
Philadelphia is up two places to eighth after going 9-1 over its last 10 games and winning nine straight. The Phillies still have only a +27 run differential and a 68-63 expected record, so the composite is responding first to the results and the quality of the recent streak. The FanGraphs playoff model gives Philadelphia a 95.0% chance to make the postseason. 125
The roster has enough health to keep the streak meaningful. Bryson Stott's X-rays were negative after a foot contusion on Aug. 23, Luis Arraez was held out as a precaution, and the club reported no long-term concern for Derek Hill. Those are short-term checks rather than new lineup upgrades, but the Phillies entered the next week with their core available. 8
Detroit's record and run profile have split apart
Detroit falls two places to 15th after a 2-8 week and five straight losses. The Tigers' +73 run differential still produces a 73-57 expected record and a 56.0% Pythagorean rate, which is why the club remains above several teams with better actual records. FanGraphs gives Detroit only a 4.9% playoff probability, placing the roster's forward outlook far below the run-based account of what the Tigers have already done. 15
Detroit's near-term rotation is still unsettled. Keider Montero is getting extra rest, Riley Greene is continuing his rehab progression, Kerry Carpenter has restarted his rehab, and Parker Meadows' 2026 return remains unconfirmed. The Rays visit Detroit from Aug. 24-26, giving the Tigers an immediate test against a top-four composite team. 891011
San Diego is rising faster than its run margin
San Diego climbs two places to ninth after a 7-3 week and a three-game winning streak. Its +16 run differential and 51.3% Pythagorean rate are closer to a .500 team than to a top-10 powerhouse, but FanGraphs still gives the Padres a 67.9% playoff probability. The roster story is pitching depth: Casey Mize hopes to make his next start after an ankle sprain, while Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta are continuing their return programs. 158
Toronto rises while the ledger argues back
Toronto rises three places to 17th because all three ordinal sources put it between 15th and 18th, and the Blue Jays are still within reach of the AL Wild Card pack. The run layer is harsher: Toronto is 64-68 with a -55 differential, a 60-72 expected record, a 45.4% Pythagorean rate, and an 18.4% FanGraphs playoff probability. Andres Giménez remained out with hamstring tightness through Sunday, while Josh Smith went on the 10-day IL. 158
Arizona, Cleveland, and Washington carry the warning signs
Arizona falls three places to 11th after a 5-5 week. The Diamondbacks' +9 differential and 66-65 expected record leave little room for a cold stretch, and Michael Soroka went on the 15-day IL with right arm inflammation on Aug. 23. Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes remain in rehab progression, so Arizona's 31.6% playoff probability has a clear roster question attached to it. 158
Cleveland falls three places to 20th even after winning four straight. The Guardians are 65-66 with a -9 differential and a 64-67 expected record, and The Athletic's Aug. 18 ranking described the offense as the team's central problem. 14
Washington drops two places after going 2-8 and losing four straight. The Nationals' +10 differential and 67-65 expected record still create a buy-low angle, but CJ Abrams remains out and James Wood still has oblique tightness. 18
What the numbers say beneath the rankings
The strongest buy-low rows
Detroit is the largest positive gap between actual and expected record: 61-69 against a 73-57 expected record, a 12-win difference. Pittsburgh is also five expected wins better than its actual record, and Washington is six expected wins better. Those gaps identify teams whose run distribution has been stronger than their standings; they do not forecast the next game by themselves. 1
Toronto carries the clearest opposite signal among the upward movers. A 64-68 record, -55 differential, 60-72 expected record, and 45.4% Pythagorean rate leave little statistical support for a major jump beyond 17th. Kansas City is the week's hottest team at 9-1, but its -91 differential and 43.2% Pythagorean rate keep the eight-game winning streak in context. 1
FanGraphs' playoff odds and WAR layer
FanGraphs gives the Brewers, Dodgers, Rays, Yankees, and several other top teams a 100.0% chance to make the playoffs. Atlanta sits at 98.7%, Chicago at 97.7%, Boston at 98.3%, and Philadelphia at 95.0%. The model gives San Diego 67.9%, Chicago's AL club 72.5%, Arizona 31.6%, Detroit 4.9%, and Seattle 34.2%. The probabilities separate current team quality from a team's remaining path to October. 5
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the current FanGraphs WAR leaderboard at 8.7. Shohei Ohtani is at 7.0 total WAR, Bobby Witt Jr. at 6.2, Yordan Alvarez at 5.8, Jacob Misiorowski at 5.5, Cristopher Sánchez at 5.4, Dillon Dingler at 5.0, Cam Schlittler at 5.0, Dylan Cease at 5.0, and Chris Sale at 4.9. The individual list adds context to Chicago, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, New York, Toronto, and Atlanta without replacing the team-level table. 6
FanGraphs' accessible current pages did not expose one same-date, all-30-team table for wRC+, rotation FIP or ERA, and bullpen ERA. Those splits are left out rather than blended across dates. The run-based layer, playoff odds, and current WAR values remain directly traceable. 56
Injury and roster watch
- Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani threw 30 pitches in live batting practice on Aug. 22 and could pitch after another live session. Tyler Glasnow is expected to activate Aug. 25 in Atlanta, Will Smith begins a rehab assignment that day, Edwin Díaz's MRI showed no structural damage, and Andy Pages is out at least four weeks. 8
- Yankees: Aaron Judge hit off a tee on Aug. 19-20, Max Fried threw 26 pitches on Aug. 22, Ryan Weathers went on the 15-day IL with a left forearm flexor strain, and Giancarlo Stanton may miss the rest of 2026. 8
- Brewers: Brandon Woodruff begins a throwing program Aug. 26, Garrett Mitchell left Sunday's game with a bruised right forearm, Sal Frelick is expected back during the Mets series, and Abner Uribe is trending toward a return Aug. 26. 8
- Cardinals: Hunter Dobbins and Andre Pallante are both on the 15-day IL with flexor or elbow issues, while Masyn Winn is managing a left thumb injury. 8
- Athletics: Jacob Wilson is expected to miss the rest of the season, Nick Kurtz is effectively out for 2026, and Tyler Soderstrom had season-ending hip surgery. 8
- Other return watches: Bryan Woo threw a bullpen session for Seattle after his start was pushed back; Joe Musgrove is trending toward another rehab start for San Diego; Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes continue their Diamondbacks rehab work; and Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter continue Detroit's rehab progressions. 8
The next seven days that can change the board
The schedule gives the biggest movement stories direct opponents. These series are tests of the signals above rather than single-game verdicts.
- Cubs at Diamondbacks, Aug. 24-26: The No. 5 Cubs bring the league's top WAR leader, Pete Crow-Armstrong, into a series against No. 11 Arizona, which is trying to protect a thin playoff path. 5612
- Phillies at Mariners, Aug. 24-26: Philadelphia's nine-game streak meets Seattle's -61 run differential and newly unsettled lineup after Brendan Donovan went on the seven-day concussion IL. 1813
- Astros at Yankees, Aug. 25-27: Houston's negative run profile faces a Yankees team with a 76-54 expected record and a 100.0% FanGraphs playoff probability. 1514
- Dodgers at Braves, Aug. 25-27: The No. 2 Dodgers face the No. 3 Braves, with Tyler Glasnow's expected return adding a roster variable to the top of the board. 815
- Brewers at Mets, Aug. 25-27, then Rangers at Brewers, Aug. 28-30: Milwaukee's No. 1 case gets a quick test against a Mets club that has gone 6-4, followed by a home series against Texas. 11617
- Rays at Tigers, Aug. 24-26: Tampa Bay's 100.0% playoff probability and Detroit's 73-57 expected record meet in a direct test of the season-results versus underlying-strength split. 159
- Padres at Rays, Aug. 28-30, and Mariners at Blue Jays, Aug. 28-30: San Diego's 67.9% playoff probability meets Tampa Bay's 100.0% mark, while Seattle and Toronto each try to make a fragile middle-tier case withstand a direct matchup. 51819
The next board should answer two questions. Can Philadelphia's winning streak survive a team with Seattle's strongest roster pressure? Can Detroit's run profile survive Tampa Bay before its injured hitters return? Milwaukee and Los Angeles remain the stable top line; the next movement is concentrated from Philadelphia through Detroit, where form, expected record, and roster availability are pulling in different directions.
References
- 1MLB standings
mlb.com
- 2
- 3ESPN MLB Power Rankings Week 21
espn.com
- 4
- 5MLB Playoff Odds
fangraphs.com
- 6FanGraphs WAR Leaderboards
fangraphs.com
- 7FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 10-16
blogs.fangraphs.com
- 8MLB injury updates
mlb.com
- 9MLB schedule: Aug. 24, 2026
mlb.com
- 10MLB schedule: Aug. 25, 2026
mlb.com
- 11MLB schedule: Aug. 26, 2026
mlb.com
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