09:30|黄金报4623美元,30年期收益率5.276%

09:30|黄金报4623美元,30年期收益率5.276%

本期覆盖 00:30–01:30 UTC:发布三条 Reuters 可核验数值事件,并逐项保留 ETF、库存仓单、SGE 出入库与 TIPS 的覆盖状态。

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-24 09:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-24T00:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-24T01:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260824-gold-4623", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "黄金报 4623 美元,8 月累计涨逾 14%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_dateline": "SYDNEY, Aug 24 (Reuters)", "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "gold_quote": "4623 USD/oz", "intraday_change": "+0.4%", "month_to_date_change": "more than 14%", "source_statement": "The yellow metal firmed 0.4% to $4,623 an ounce, having climbed more than 14% for the month so far." }, "transmission_chain": "美元走弱与美国政策不确定性→黄金作为稀缺资产的需求获得支撑→AU 报价升至 4623 USD/oz 并日内上涨 0.4%", "invalidation_conditions": "若 Reuters 更正 4623 USD/oz 或 0.4%涨幅,或后续页面确认该数值属于动态组件而非正文报价,本事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260824-real-rate-52760", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "市场定价美联储 9 月加息概率约 40%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 84, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_dateline": "SYDNEY, Aug 24 (Reuters)", "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "fed_september_16_hike_probability": "around 40%", "fed_december_move_pricing": "fully priced", "us_30y_nominal_yield": "5.2760%", "recent_19_year_peak": "5.3371%", "source_statement": "Markets imply around a 40% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates when it meets on September 16 and are fully priced for a move by December; 30-year yields were back up at 5.2760%, not far from the recent 19-year peak of 5.3371%." }, "transmission_chain": "9 月加息概率约 40%且 12 月前加息已充分定价→美国 30 年期名义收益率回到 5.2760%→AU 与 AG 的持有机会成本上升,方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "若 Reuters 更正加息概率、12 月定价或 30 年期收益率数字,或后续利率定价明显回撤并取消上述条件,本事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260824-oil-9343", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "布伦特与 WTI 跌至 93.43 和 86.14 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 0, "AG": 0 }, "confidence": 82, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_dateline": "SYDNEY, Aug 24 (Reuters)", "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z", "planned_policy_event": "U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was due to hold a news conference later on Monday to outline sanctions on Iran", "brent": { "price": "93.43 USD/bbl", "change": "-1.0%", "prior_week_change": "+6.6%" }, "wti": { "price": "86.14 USD/bbl", "change": "-1.1%" }, "source_statement": "Brent slipped 1.0% to $93.43 ahead of the announcement, while U.S. crude eased 1.1% to $86.14 a barrel." }, "transmission_chain": "美国拟公布对伊制裁但原油先行回落→市场暂未把新增制裁风险转成即时供给冲击→AU 与 AG 的避险和通胀传导方向相互抵消,方向中性", "invalidation_conditions": "若 Reuters 更正 93.43 USD/bbl、86.14 USD/bbl 或对应跌幅,或后续官方信息确认油价变动并非该报道所述时点,本事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮在白名单范围内检索,未取得 GLD 或 SLV 在窗口内发布的可核验持仓新数字;未把搜索摘要、旧快照或动态报价替代持仓事实。", "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖:COT(周六早)、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库(周频)、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动;到相应发布时点必须输出事件,不得以「无新增」跳过。" }, { "coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮命中 CME 官方黄金与白银市场页面,但未取得窗口内 registered 或 eligible 库存表及新数字;未用行情页、交割通知或搜索摘要替代库存分级报告。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html)](https://cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html)](https://cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html))" ], "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖:COT(周六早)、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库(周频)、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动;到相应发布时点必须输出事件,不得以「无新增」跳过。" }, { "coverage": "SGE 出入库与库存数据", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮取得上金所 2026-08-24 延时行情页面,但页面仅含 Au99.99、Au(T+D)与 Ag(T+D)等报价,没有出入库或库存字段;未把行情表替代硬覆盖数据。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg" ], "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖:COT(周六早)、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库(周频)、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动;到相应发布时点必须输出事件,不得以「无新增」跳过。" }, { "coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮对上期所官方 AU、AG 仓单日报做定向检索,没有返回可读取的窗口内官方结果;未用入口壳或交割通知替代仓单数字。", "blocked_requirement": "Tier A(优先,权威一手):CFTC COT 持仓周报;SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报;LBMA 结算价与库存;WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报;美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话;BLS CPI 与非农;BEA PCE;美国财政部实际利率(TIPS)曲线。" }, { "coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率(TIPS)曲线", "status": "no_new_row_in_window", "attempted_route": "本轮读取美国财政部官方 Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates 页面,页面最新数据行日期为 2026-08-21,早于本窗口起点;未把窗口外实际收益率写成新事件。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ], "blocked_requirement": "Tier A(优先,权威一手):CFTC COT 持仓周报;SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报;LBMA 结算价与库存;WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报;美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话;BLS CPI 与非农;BEA PCE;美国财政部实际利率(TIPS)曲线。" } ] }

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