
09:30|黄金报4623美元,30年期收益率5.276%
本期覆盖 00:30–01:30 UTC:发布三条 Reuters 可核验数值事件,并逐项保留 ETF、库存仓单、SGE 出入库与 TIPS 的覆盖状态。
{
"schema_version": 1,
"as_of": "2026-08-24 09:30:00+08:00",
"window_start_utc": "2026-08-24T00:30:00Z",
"window_end_utc": "2026-08-24T01:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"AU",
"AG"
],
"events": [
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260824-gold-4623",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"title": "黄金报 4623 美元,8 月累计涨逾 14%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"asset_keys": [
"AU"
],
"direction_score": {
"AU": 1
},
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"source_dateline": "SYDNEY, Aug 24 (Reuters)",
"source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"gold_quote": "4623 USD/oz",
"intraday_change": "+0.4%",
"month_to_date_change": "more than 14%",
"source_statement": "The yellow metal firmed 0.4% to $4,623 an ounce, having climbed more than 14% for the month so far."
},
"transmission_chain": "美元走弱与美国政策不确定性→黄金作为稀缺资产的需求获得支撑→AU 报价升至 4623 USD/oz 并日内上涨 0.4%",
"invalidation_conditions": "若 Reuters 更正 4623 USD/oz 或 0.4%涨幅,或后续页面确认该数值属于动态组件而非正文报价,本事件失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260824-real-rate-52760",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "市场定价美联储 9 月加息概率约 40%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"asset_keys": [
"AU",
"AG"
],
"direction_score": {
"AU": -1,
"AG": -1
},
"confidence": 84,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_dateline": "SYDNEY, Aug 24 (Reuters)",
"source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"fed_september_16_hike_probability": "around 40%",
"fed_december_move_pricing": "fully priced",
"us_30y_nominal_yield": "5.2760%",
"recent_19_year_peak": "5.3371%",
"source_statement": "Markets imply around a 40% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates when it meets on September 16 and are fully priced for a move by December; 30-year yields were back up at 5.2760%, not far from the recent 19-year peak of 5.3371%."
},
"transmission_chain": "9 月加息概率约 40%且 12 月前加息已充分定价→美国 30 年期名义收益率回到 5.2760%→AU 与 AG 的持有机会成本上升,方向偏空",
"invalidation_conditions": "若 Reuters 更正加息概率、12 月定价或 30 年期收益率数字,或后续利率定价明显回撤并取消上述条件,本事件失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260824-oil-9343",
"event_type": "geopolitics",
"title": "布伦特与 WTI 跌至 93.43 和 86.14 美元",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"asset_keys": [
"AU",
"AG"
],
"direction_score": {
"AU": 0,
"AG": 0
},
"confidence": 82,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_dateline": "SYDNEY, Aug 24 (Reuters)",
"source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-24T00:49:49.306Z",
"planned_policy_event": "U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was due to hold a news conference later on Monday to outline sanctions on Iran",
"brent": {
"price": "93.43 USD/bbl",
"change": "-1.0%",
"prior_week_change": "+6.6%"
},
"wti": {
"price": "86.14 USD/bbl",
"change": "-1.1%"
},
"source_statement": "Brent slipped 1.0% to $93.43 ahead of the announcement, while U.S. crude eased 1.1% to $86.14 a barrel."
},
"transmission_chain": "美国拟公布对伊制裁但原油先行回落→市场暂未把新增制裁风险转成即时供给冲击→AU 与 AG 的避险和通胀传导方向相互抵消,方向中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "若 Reuters 更正 93.43 USD/bbl、86.14 USD/bbl 或对应跌幅,或后续官方信息确认油价变动并非该报道所述时点,本事件失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-24/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
],
"coverage_gaps": [
{
"coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮在白名单范围内检索,未取得 GLD 或 SLV 在窗口内发布的可核验持仓新数字;未把搜索摘要、旧快照或动态报价替代持仓事实。",
"blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖:COT(周六早)、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库(周频)、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动;到相应发布时点必须输出事件,不得以「无新增」跳过。"
},
{
"coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮命中 CME 官方黄金与白银市场页面,但未取得窗口内 registered 或 eligible 库存表及新数字;未用行情页、交割通知或搜索摘要替代库存分级报告。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html)](https://cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html))",
"[https://www.[cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html)](https://cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html))"
],
"blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖:COT(周六早)、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库(周频)、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动;到相应发布时点必须输出事件,不得以「无新增」跳过。"
},
{
"coverage": "SGE 出入库与库存数据",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮取得上金所 2026-08-24 延时行情页面,但页面仅含 Au99.99、Au(T+D)与 Ag(T+D)等报价,没有出入库或库存字段;未把行情表替代硬覆盖数据。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg"
],
"blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖:COT(周六早)、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库(周频)、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动;到相应发布时点必须输出事件,不得以「无新增」跳过。"
},
{
"coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮对上期所官方 AU、AG 仓单日报做定向检索,没有返回可读取的窗口内官方结果;未用入口壳或交割通知替代仓单数字。",
"blocked_requirement": "Tier A(优先,权威一手):CFTC COT 持仓周报;SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报;LBMA 结算价与库存;WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报;美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话;BLS CPI 与非农;BEA PCE;美国财政部实际利率(TIPS)曲线。"
},
{
"coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率(TIPS)曲线",
"status": "no_new_row_in_window",
"attempted_route": "本轮读取美国财政部官方 Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates 页面,页面最新数据行日期为 2026-08-21,早于本窗口起点;未把窗口外实际收益率写成新事件。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"
],
"blocked_requirement": "Tier A(优先,权威一手):CFTC COT 持仓周报;SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报;LBMA 结算价与库存;WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报;美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话;BLS CPI 与非农;BEA PCE;美国财政部实际利率(TIPS)曲线。"
}
]
}
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