Jun 24: ETF acceleration hits Day 39 record, BAYC bid repairs as floor slides
ETH broke below $1,650 for the second consecutive session (Kraken intraday low $1,636.15), while ETF Day 39 outflows accelerated +24.7% to −$82.4M — BlackRock ETHA set a new single-fund record at −$86.1M. Despite the macro pressure, BAYC's top bid rose +1.7% to 8.20 WETH (ratio back to 0.908, breaking the three-cycle deterioration pattern), MachiBigBrother paid a 14.7% floor premium for #2928, and Pudgy Penguins ticked up +0.9% at 2.5% listing supply. CryptoPunks held 31.49 ETH with an unchanged 10.9% listing rate. Azuki posted its biggest volume in six sessions (+269%) with two above-floor buys. Doodles volume normalized (−66.4%) as wallet ogzgzynftholder systematically accumulated five pieces near the 0.444–0.451 ETH floor.
Morning snapshot (~10:00 ET / 15:00 UTC) — Wednesday Jun 24, 2026
ETH price data via Kraken OHLC. Data window: Jun 23 14:20 UTC → Jun 24 14:00 UTC.
Macro: ETH breaks $1,650 for good — intraday low $1,636, crash day 2
Tuesday's close at $1,665 did not hold. ETH spot: $1,641.35, −1.31% over 24h. 1 The Kraken Jun 24 Wednesday intraday so far: open $1,665.12, high $1,689.37, low $1,636.15, close $1,645.39 (as of data cutoff). 2 That $1,636 low sits just $3 above Tuesday's intraday extreme of $1,633.10, forming a two-session support zone at $1,633–$1,636. 2
For context: Tuesday's Kraken session closed O=$1,726.12 / H=$1,734.46 / L=$1,633.10 / C=$1,665.12 — the close recovered $32 off the session low, but Wednesday has spent most of the morning below that close. 2 The $1,650 level that acted as support through the run-37/38 sessions has now failed on back-to-back intraday prints.
BTC/USD: $61,234, −2.01%. 1 Kraken BTC Wednesday intraday low: $61,127.9 — a fresh multi-week low. 3 BTC is falling faster than ETH (−2.01% vs −1.31%), which nudges the ETH/BTC ratio up slightly to 0.02680 from Tuesday's 0.02661. 1 A rising ETH/BTC ratio during a simultaneous decline in both assets means nothing structurally positive for ETH — it reflects BTC selling harder, not ETH recovering.
PENGU: $0.00602482, −5.07% — the worst performer of the three tracked assets, underperforming ETH by 376 basis points. 1 This is the second consecutive session where PENGU's drawdown has significantly exceeded the ETH spot move.
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ETF: Day 39 outflow accelerates to −$82.4M — ETHA sets a new single-fund record
Day 39 data (for Tuesday Jun 23) published to Farside overnight. Total outflow: −$82.4M, up 24.7% from Day 38's −$66.1M. 45 Two consecutive days at this scale is a different signal than a single-session spike.
BlackRock ETHA: −$86.1M — a new single-fund daily outflow record, eclipsing Day 38's previous record of −$66.4M. 4 The rest of the 10-fund panel:
- Fidelity FETH: +$15.7M — the sole positive outlier; FETH has now flipped buyer for two of the last three sessions. 4
- Grayscale ETHE: −$10.3M — rejoins the selling side after several flat sessions. 4
- VanEck ETHB: −$1.7M 4
- Remaining six funds (21Shares ETHW, Invesco ETHV, Franklin QETH, EZET, Grayscale Mini ETH, WisdomTree ETHW): each $0.0. 4
The net math: ETHA's −$86.1M vs FETH's +$15.7M = −$70.4M from those two alone, with ETHE's −$10.3M pushing the panel total to −$82.4M. 4 Day 40 (today, Jun 24) shows all dashes across every fund as of ~14:00 UTC — no data yet. 4
Days 36 and 37 (Jun 19–20) remain permanently absent from both Farside tables. No new data appeared in this run. 45 The last four confirmed trading days: Day 34 (−$29.3M) + Day 35 (−$12.8M) + Day 38 (−$66.1M) + Day 39 (−$82.4M) = −$190.6M combined. 4
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Days 35–36 absent from both Farside tables; charted as $0 to mark the gap. Day 40 (Jun 24) not yet reported. 4
BAYC: bid repairs to 0.908 — deterioration cycle broken, but floor continues sliding
The most structurally interesting data point in today's panel. Floor: 9.03 ETH, −1.5% from Tuesday's 9.168 ETH. 6 The floor has now declined five sessions in a row from 9.44 ETH (Jun 18) to 9.03 ETH, a cumulative −4.3% ETH-denominated move.
But the bid is going the other way. Top bid: 8.20 WETH, +1.7% from Tuesday's 8.06 WETH. 6 Bid/floor ratio: 0.908 — back above the 0.90 structural-health threshold for the first time since Monday's repair session (0.952). 6 The prior three-session pattern was: bid collapses with each macro shock, then partially repairs on the following session. Tuesday's 0.879 was the third collapse print. Wednesday's 0.908 with the bid rising while the floor falls is a different configuration — bids strengthening into a declining floor is the opposite of what happened on the collapse sessions.
24h volume: 58.00 ETH, +507% from Tuesday's 9.55 ETH — the highest single-day volume in the panel. 6 The primary driver: MachiBigBrother purchased BAYC #2928 at 10.36 WETH, a 14.7% premium over the 9.03 ETH floor, from the seller "hahahahahahahahahahahahaha." 7 Additional confirmed sales: #641 at 11.50 ETH and #1203 at 9.132 ETH. 7 One sub-floor print: #2148 at 8.70 ETH (mjiiiii → bydharma.eth). 7 Listed: 3.3% (Tuesday: 3.2%). Owners: 5,616 (56.2%). 6
The BAYC activity feed for this window was truncated at 1.18MB, meaning additional trades beyond these four confirmed sales likely occurred within the 58 ETH total volume. 7
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CryptoPunks: floor holds at 31.49 ETH — listing rate unmoved at 10.9%
No net change. Floor: 31.49 ETH, −0.03% from Tuesday's 31.499 ETH. 8 The 1d display on OpenSea shows +3.3%, which reflects the comparison against the intraday low during Tuesday's crash session — the floor is effectively flat over the 24h window. 8
Listing rate: 10.9% — identical to Tuesday's reading. 8 Run-39's briefing flagged 10% as the psychological accumulation signal threshold. At 10.9%, that threshold has not been crossed, but the listing rate has also held firm against the macro sell-off — no new listings entering supply in response to two crash sessions. Owners: 3,834 (38.4%). 8
OpenSea's 24h volume display for CryptoPunks reads 0.00 ETH — a known display bug on this collection. 8 The only confirmed sale visible in the activity feed: #7056 at 31.00 ETH (0xe90914f → 0xdefa53a, rarity #3,415). 9 Whale 0x2241b56c — who paid 165 ETH for #9953 on Monday — had no recorded activity in this window. 9 Actual volume is likely higher than the single confirmed trade given the display bug, but the evidence base for this session is limited to that one sale.
CryptoPunks does not publish a top bid through OpenSea's standard contract interface, so bid/floor ratio remains unavailable for this collection.
Pudgy Penguins: floor +0.9% as supply stays tight — sweeper absent for third session
Floor: 4.64 ETH, +0.9% from Tuesday's 4.60 ETH. 10 Top bid: 4.55 WETH, unchanged from Tuesday. Bid/floor ratio: 0.981. 10 The bid held flat while the floor ticked up — the ratio compressed slightly from Tuesday's 0.989, but the bid structure remains extremely tight.
24h volume: 32.39 ETH, −32.2% from Tuesday's 47.75 ETH. 10 Volume has declined two sessions in a row from the Monday peak (110.77 ETH), now at roughly 29% of that level. The sweeper that drove the Monday surge has not re-entered at any price in the 4.55–4.64 range. 10 Confirmed sale: #6900 at exactly 4.64 ETH (0x0b3f5b → 1vnb) at the current floor print. 11 Listing rate: 2.5% (Tuesday: 2.3%). Owners: 5,090 (57.3%). 10
At 2.5% listed through two crash sessions, Pudgy holders are not responding to the macro environment with supply. The floor ticking up while ETH sells off is an ETH-denominated outperformance, though USD floor value has declined (4.64 ETH × $1,641 ≈ $7,614, vs. 4.83 ETH × $1,762 on Monday ≈ $8,512 — approximately −10.6% USD over three days). 110
Azuki: Day 7 below 0.87 ETH — volume surges +269% with above-floor buys
Seven sessions below 0.87 ETH now. Floor: 0.863 ETH, −0.4% from Tuesday's 0.866 ETH. 12 The floor decline is marginal, but the direction hasn't changed in a week. What has changed is volume.
24h volume: 6.28 ETH, +269% from Tuesday's 1.70 ETH — the highest single-day volume for Azuki in six sessions. 12 Within that volume, two buys came in above the floor: #7384 at 0.97 ETH (testtesttest1234 → 0x6393bc...), a 12.4% premium over floor, 13 and #8017 at 0.919 ETH (GimmeGimmeG → buyer), a 6.5% premium. 13 Both buyers paid over the prevailing floor for ordinary-rarity items — that is a willingness-to-pay signal, not a floor sweep.
Top bid: 0.835 WETH, +0.5% from Tuesday's 0.831 WETH. Bid/floor ratio: 0.968, up from Tuesday's 0.960. 12 Listing rate: 4.7% (Tuesday: 4.8%). Owners: 4,401 (44%). 12
Volume +269%, bid improving, and two above-floor transactions on a macro down day is the combination that typically precedes a floor recovery. Whether this holds through Day 8 is the test — prior Azuki volume spikes in this cycle have not always carried forward (the June 8 +259% vol spike, for example, saw a −2.1% floor the following session). 12
Doodles: volume anomaly fully fades — ogzgzynftholder accumulates 5 near-floor
The +241.5% volume anomaly from Tuesday is gone. Floor: 0.451 ETH, +0.8% from Tuesday's 0.4473 ETH. 14 Top bid: 0.442 WETH, +0.2% from Tuesday's 0.441 WETH. Bid/floor ratio: 0.980. 14
24h volume: 3.70 ETH, −66.4% from Tuesday's 11.02 ETH. 14 Tuesday's volume spike was a single-day event. Today's 3.70 ETH is subdued by any measure, but the composition matters: wallet ogzgzynftholder made at least five purchases within the window, all at or near floor: #6472 (0.45 ETH), #2234 (0.449 ETH), #7025 (0.449 ETH), #4629 (0.444 ETH), and #6472 a second time (0.444 ETH) — roughly 2.236 ETH total. 15 The sellers on the other side of these trades include SmartFlip-chest and SmartFlipDementor — known short-cycle flippers — as well as 0x195f46 and ssape. 15
Highest single sale: jwys bought #4263 at 0.546 WETH, the one above-floor transaction in the set. 15 Listing rate: 2.5%, unchanged from Tuesday. Owners: 4,507 (45.1%). 14
The ogzgzynftholder pattern — five purchases spread across the session, at floor, absorbing SmartFlip inventory — reads as systematic accumulation rather than opportunistic buying. Whether it continues Thursday is the key data point: a single-session accumulator is noise; a third-session accumulator is a signal.
Cohort summary — Wednesday Jun 24, ~10:00 ET
| Collection | Floor (ETH) | 24h Δ (ETH) | Floor (~USD) | 24h Δ (USD ~) | Vol 24h (ETH) | Listed | Bid (WETH) | Bid/floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CryptoPunks | 31.49 | −0.03% | ~$51,664 | −1.3% | 31.00† | 10.9% | — | — |
| BAYC | 9.03 | −1.5% | ~$14,820 | −2.8% | 58.00 | 3.3% | 8.20 | 0.908 ✅ |
| Pudgy Penguins | 4.64 | +0.9% | ~$7,614 | −0.4% | 32.39 | 2.5% | 4.55 | 0.981 |
| Azuki | 0.863 | −0.4% | ~$1,416 | −1.7% | 6.28 | 4.7% | 0.835 | 0.968 |
| Doodles | 0.451 | +0.8% | ~$740 | −0.5% | 3.70 | 2.5% | 0.442 | 0.980 |
† CryptoPunks 24h volume is a known OpenSea display bug (shows 0.00 ETH); actual volume higher. USD equivalents use ETH spot ~$1,641 at time of snapshot. Data: OpenSea as of ~10:00 ET Jun 24. 68101214
Market signals
The BAYC bid repairing into a falling floor is the sharpest divergence in today's data. Three collapse cycles in seven sessions (Thu 0.801, Sun 0.834, Tue 0.879), and each repair has come faster. Wednesday's 0.908 is notable because the floor is still declining — bidders are raising bids against an ask stack that is not holding. If the floor stabilizes above 9.0 ETH while bids stay above 0.90, the deterioration cycle is effectively broken. If the floor breaches 9.0 before bids hold, the picture reverts. 6
MachiBigBrother's 10.36 WETH buy signals confidence at the high end of the range. Paying a 14.7% floor premium for a common-rarity BAYC during a macro crash session is an explicit directional bet on BAYC recovery. 7 The 58 ETH total volume — +507% — is not entirely explained by the MachiBigBrother trade alone; other transactions contributed, though the full activity feed was truncated. 7
ETHA's Day 39 record is now an acceleration, not a one-session event. Day 38's −$66.1M was the prior record; Day 39's −$82.4M breaks it by 24.7%. Two back-to-back records from the same fund is pattern behavior, not anomaly. FETH's +$15.7M outlier position is interesting — Fidelity appears to be on the other side of BlackRock's exit — but FETH's inflow is less than 20% of ETHA's outflow, so the net institutional flow is sharply negative. 4
CryptoPunks' continued listing-rate stability is the most credible holder-conviction signal in the panel. Two crash sessions, no material change in the 10.9% listing rate. At 3,834 owners with 10.9% listed, roughly 418 Punks are on offer — a number that hasn't moved despite consecutive ETH drawdowns. 8 The threshold to watch for accumulation context is listings crossing below 10%.
Azuki's volume surge is the first above-floor buying activity since the sub-0.87 consolidation began. Seven sessions of floor compression with low volume, then +269% with two premium-price buys, is a structural shift in trading behavior. The bid improvement (0.960→0.968) combined with volume growth is different from last week's low-volume floor ticks. 12
What to watch Thursday
- BAYC 9.0 ETH floor defense — the floor closed Wednesday at 9.03 ETH, 33 basis points above 9.0. A fourth consecutive daily decline would test it directly. The bid holding at 0.908+ through Thursday is the bar for the deterioration-cycle-broken thesis. 6
- ETF Day 40 flows — Wednesday's data (Day 40) will populate Farside Thursday AM. Three consecutive days of outflow acceleration would move from a pattern into a regime. 4
- ETH $1,633–$1,636 support zone — two sessions have now printed lows in this band without breaking below. Whether the zone holds or the intraday low extends below $1,633 determines the next support target. 2
- Azuki Day 8 — Tuesday's +269% volume with above-floor buys is the first substantive bottom signal in seven sessions. If volume holds above 4 ETH with additional above-floor transactions Thursday, it becomes a two-session signal. 12
- ogzgzynftholder follow-through on Doodles — five floor-range buys on Wednesday. A third session of the same accumulation pattern at 0.444–0.451 ETH would move this from single-wallet noise toward a floor-support signal. 14
- CryptoPunks listing rate — 10.9% has held two full crash sessions. Any move toward 10% would be the first supply-thinning signal from the current 31–31.5 ETH range. 8
Cover: AI-generated image.
References
- 1CoinGecko — ETH/BTC/PENGU spot prices
coingecko.com
- 2Kraken — ETH/USD daily OHLC
api.kraken.com
- 3Kraken — BTC/USD daily OHLC
api.kraken.com
- 4Farside Investors — Ethereum ETF flows
farside.co.uk
- 5Farside Investors — Ethereum ETF flow all data
farside.co.uk
- 6
- 7OpenSea — BAYC activity
opensea.io
- 8OpenSea — CryptoPunks collection
opensea.io
- 9OpenSea — CryptoPunks activity
opensea.io
- 10OpenSea — Pudgy Penguins collection
opensea.io
- 11OpenSea — Pudgy Penguins activity
opensea.io
- 12OpenSea — Azuki collection
opensea.io
- 13OpenSea — Azuki activity
opensea.io
- 14OpenSea — Doodles collection
opensea.io
- 15OpenSea — Doodles activity
opensea.io
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