MLB Power Rankings Week 23: Cleveland surges, Detroit tumbles as Milwaukee stays No. 1
A current Aug. 24–30 snapshot of all 30 MLB teams: Milwaukee stays No. 1, Cleveland makes the week's biggest jump, Detroit tumbles, and the board is tested against run metrics, FanGraphs odds and WAR, injuries, and the next seven days.
Milwaukee stays No. 1 for a second straight week, but the board changes sharply below the top 10. Cleveland jumps eight places after an 8-2 run, Seattle rises three, and Detroit drops six despite a run profile that still looks like a winning club. This issue covers games through Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026. 1
How the composite works
The ranking averages three current editorial lists: ESPN's Aug. 27 list, The Athletic's Aug. 25 list, and MLB.com's list for the week of Aug. 30, published Aug. 31. The Athletic reports decimal average rankings; those values enter the average as published. Equal composite averages are separated by record, run differential, MLB's expected record, and recent form. 234
FanGraphs supplies the forward-looking layer. Its current page gives each team's projected playoff chances and World Series chances, and its WAR leaderboard gives the season's leading individual contributors. FanGraphs' latest accessible ordinal article covered Aug. 10–16, so it is outside this issue's Aug. 24–30 ranking window and is not part of the editorial average.
RD means run differential, X-W/L means MLB's expected record, and Pyth% is calculated from runs scored and allowed with a 1.83 exponent. 56All 30 teams ranked
E / A / M means ESPN / The Athletic / MLB.com. The movement column compares this composite with Week 22. Current records, last-10 results, streaks, runs, expected records, and next games come from MLB's standings page. 1| Rank | Team | E / A / M | Record / L10 / streak | RD / X-W/L / Pyth% | Move | Week 23 read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1 / 1.0 / 1 | 85-52 · 7-3 · L1 | +177 / 87-50 / 63.4% 1 | — | All three lists keep Milwaukee first. The Brewers also lead the majors in record, run differential, and expected wins. |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 / 2.0 / 3 | 82-55 · 6-4 · W1 | +153 / 84-53 / 61.6% 1 | — | The Dodgers remain second with the best FanGraphs World Series probability, while Shohei Ohtani's pitching timetable keeps the October ceiling in view. |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 4 / 4.6 / 2 | 82-55 · 8-2 · W7 | +117 / 81-56 / 59.2% 1 | — | Atlanta's seven-game streak and MLB.com's No. 2 slot outweigh its fourth-place ESPN and Athletic marks. |
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | 3 / 4.0 / 6 | 77-60 · 3-7 · L1 | +127 / 80-57 / 58.7% 1 | ▲1 | The Cubs rise on a strong run profile and a top-heavy individual season from Pete Crow-Armstrong, even after a 3-7 stretch. |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rays | 5 / 5.8 / 4 | 82-54 · 6-4 · W4 | +54 / 74-62 / 54.2% 1 | ▼1 | Tampa Bay still owns the AL's best record and a 100% FanGraphs playoff probability, but its expected record is much closer to the Wild Card group. |
| 6 | New York Yankees | 6 / 4.8 / 5 | 78-59 · 6-4 · W2 | +117 / 81-56 / 59.4% 1 | — | New York's +117 differential supports a top-six place, while Aaron Judge's September return remains the roster question with the largest upside. |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 / 7.4 / 7 | 77-60 · 8-2 · W4 | +30 / 72-65 / 52.3% 1 | ▲1 | Philadelphia has paired an 8-2 run with a 98.6% FanGraphs playoff probability, although its modest run margin leaves less room for a bad week. |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 8 / 7.0 / 8 | 74-63 · 6-4 · L2 | +84 / 78-59 / 56.7% 1 | ▼1 | Boston slips one place as the lists compress, even with a 78-59 expected record and a 97.3% FanGraphs playoff probability. |
| 9 | San Diego Padres | 9 / 10.0 / 10 | 72-65 · 4-6 · L3 | +10 / 70-67 / 50.8% 1 | — | San Diego holds ninth because Fernando Tatis Jr.'s surge keeps the offense dangerous, while the +10 differential still describes a close-to-even team. |
| 10 | Chicago White Sox | 11 / 9.8 / 9 | 72-64 · 6-4 · L1 | +44 / 72-64 / 53.2% 1 | — | Chicago stays in the top 10 with the AL Central lead, a positive run margin, and an 85.6% FanGraphs playoff probability. |
| 11 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 10 / 11.8 / 11 | 73-65 · 6-4 · L1 | +5 / 70-68 / 50.4% 1 | — | Arizona sits just outside the top 10 because a 73-65 record carries only a +5 run margin and a 50.1% FanGraphs playoff probability. |
| 12 | Cleveland Guardians | 12 / 15.4 / 12 | 69-68 · 8-2 · W1 | -2 / 68-69 / 49.8% 1 | ▲8 | Cleveland makes the week's largest jump after an 8-2 run, with Jo Adell supplying the middle-order production the Guardians needed. |
| 13 | Miami Marlins | 13 / 11.6 / 15 | 69-68 · 5-5 · W1 | +15 / 70-67 / 51.2% 1 | — | Miami's positive run margin and 70-67 expected record keep the Marlins above the .500 line in the composite. |
| 14 | Houston Astros | 15 / 16.2 / 13 | 69-68 · 5-5 · W1 | -43 / 64-73 / 47.0% 1 | ▼2 | Houston's first-place position in the AL West is carrying a team whose runs and expected record both point below .500. |
| 15 | St. Louis Cardinals | 16 / 15.6 / 17 | 68-70 · 3-7 · L2 | -15 / 67-71 / 48.9% 1 | ▼1 | St. Louis loses ground after a 3-7 week, and the pitching shortage becomes more serious with JJ Wetherholt joining the injured list. |
| 16 | Texas Rangers | 14 / 16.8 / 18 | 67-70 · 5-5 · W1 | -51 / 63-74 / 46.0% 1 | ▲2 | Texas gains two places because ESPN remains much higher than The Athletic, even as the -51 differential caps the case for a bigger rise. |
| 17 | Toronto Blue Jays | 18 / 18.6 / 16 | 68-70 · 6-4 · W3 | -50 / 63-75 / 46.0% 1 | — | Toronto's three-game streak has not erased a -50 run differential or a 25.5% FanGraphs playoff probability. |
| 18 | Baltimore Orioles | 19 / 19.8 / 14 | 68-69 · 7-3 · W3 | -18 / 67-70 / 48.7% 1 | ▼2 | Baltimore is winning now, but the source spread from 14th to 19th captures a team still carrying a negative season run margin. |
| 19 | Seattle Mariners | 17 / 21.2 / 19 | 64-73 · 4-6 · L4 | -72 / 61-76 / 44.2% 1 | ▲3 | Seattle rises three places because ESPN's 17th slot and a strong projected rest-of-season win rate keep the rotation in the conversation. |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21 / 15.8 / 21 | 67-71 · 5-5 · W2 | +26 / 72-66 / 51.8% 1 | ▼1 | Pittsburgh's +26 differential and 72-66 expected record are better than the actual ledger, but the team remains below .500. |
| 21 | Detroit Tigers | 22 / 16.0 / 20 | 63-73 · 2-8 · L1 | +65 / 75-61 / 55.3% 1 | ▼6 | Detroit takes the largest fall after going 2-8, yet its 75-61 expected record and 55.3% Pythagorean rate still describe a dangerous buy-low team. |
| 22 | Minnesota Twins | 20 / 21.6 / 23 | 65-72 · 3-7 · W1 | -56 / 63-74 / 46.1% 1 | ▼1 | Minnesota's losing run and -56 differential move together, while Joe Ryan's rehab remains the clearest possible rotation boost. |
| 23 | Washington Nationals | 23 / 20.8 / 22 | 65-74 · 4-6 · L1 | +16 / 71-68 / 51.0% 1 | — | Washington has a positive run margin and 71-68 expected record, but a 65-74 actual mark keeps the Nationals in the lower tier. |
| 24 | New York Mets | 25 / 23.6 / 25 | 61-76 · 4-6 · L1 | -53 / 63-74 / 45.9% 1 | — | The Mets hold 24th as Juan Soto returns to a roster with a -53 run margin and a 0% FanGraphs playoff probability. |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds | 24 / 24.8 / 26 | 65-72 · 4-6 · W1 | -108 / 58-79 / 42.1% 1 | — | Cincinnati's sources agree on the lower quarter, and the -108 differential leaves little support for a near-term climb. |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 26 / 26.4 / 24 | 62-76 · 8-2 · L1 | -83 / 61-77 / 44.0% 1 | — | Kansas City has gone 8-2 over its last 10, but its -83 run differential keeps the hot stretch in perspective. |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | 27 / 26.6 / 27 | 56-81 · 4-6 · W1 | -74 / 61-76 / 44.3% 1 | — | San Francisco stays 27th with a 56-81 record and a run profile that remains well below the competitive middle. |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | 28 / 27.4 / 28 | 52-85 · 2-8 · L7 | -82 / 60-77 / 43.7% 1 | ▲1 | Los Angeles moves ahead of Colorado in the composite, while Reid Detmers' strong post-deadline run gives the Angels one useful building block. |
| 29 | Colorado Rockies | 29 / 29.2 / 30 | 52-85 · 2-8 · L4 | -142 / 56-81 / 41.0% 1 | ▼1 | Colorado's four-game skid and -142 differential put the Rockies one place from last across the three lists. |
| 30 | Athletics | 30 / 29.8 / 29 | 53-84 · 4-6 · L3 | -191 / 51-86 / 37.5% 1 | — | The Athletics remain last, separated from the field by MLB's worst run differential and the lowest expected record. |
The moves that changed the board
Cleveland finally has separation
Cleveland went 8-2 over its last 10 games and climbed from 20th to 12th in this composite. The Guardians' season record remains only 69-68, and the run profile is nearly even at -2, so the jump reflects current wins and the three-list agreement more than a fully repaired team. MLB.com gives Cleveland the easiest remaining schedule among the AL Central contenders, while FanGraphs puts the Guardians at 51.3% to make the playoffs. 45
Jo Adell has given Cleveland the middle-order answer it lacked. ESPN's current team note credits Adell with a .777 OPS and 18 RBIs in 20 games for the Guardians. That production turns the next week into a test of whether Cleveland's offense can keep carrying the club while the division race stays crowded. 2
Detroit's record is the warning, not the whole story
Detroit's 2-8 stretch pushed the Tigers from 15th to 21st. The underlying numbers tell a different story: Detroit has scored 596 runs and allowed 531, owns a 75-61 expected record, and has a 55.3% Pythagorean rate. FanGraphs gives the Tigers only a 1.6% playoff probability, so the ranking is separating what the team has produced over the season from what the remaining roster is likely to produce in September. 15
The roster may still improve. Riley Greene began a rehab assignment on Aug. 29 and could return as soon as Sept. 1. Detroit's next test comes against Minnesota, a matchup between two teams whose records sit below their stronger or weaker run profiles in opposite ways. 17
Seattle rises on projection, with a large debt to repay
Seattle moves from 22nd to 19th after the three sources split widely: ESPN ranks the Mariners 17th, MLB.com 19th, and The Athletic 21st. FanGraphs gives Seattle a 59.1% projected rest-of-season winning rate, the best figure among the AL West teams, but only a 19.0% chance to make the playoffs because the current record is 64-73. 2345
Seattle also enters the week with four straight losses and a -72 run differential. The ranking rise is therefore a forward bet on the rotation rather than a reward for the past seven days. Emerson Hancock went on the 15-day injured list with a left adductor strain, adding a cost to that bet. 17
The top five are separating by shape, not by consensus
Milwaukee and Los Angeles remain first and second on every list. Atlanta and Tampa Bay have each received a top-four slot from at least one source, while Chicago's third-place ESPN mark and sixth-place MLB.com mark create the week's clearest top-five disagreement. The Cubs still have a +127 run differential, and Pete Crow-Armstrong leads FanGraphs' WAR leaderboard at 9.3. 1246
Tampa Bay has the best actual record in the American League at 82-54, yet its 74-62 expected record is the weakest among the top five. Atlanta's 82-55 record and +117 differential support the source list that moved the Braves to second, while Milwaukee's +177 remains the league's clearest separation. 1
Analytics check
FanGraphs' playoff model agrees with the top of the composite in broad terms: the Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Rays, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox all have at least a 97.3% chance to reach the postseason. The model gives Los Angeles the highest World Series probability at 24.3%, followed by Milwaukee at 11.4%, Tampa Bay at 9.3%, New York at 9.0%, and Philadelphia at 8.0%. 5
The largest disagreement sits in the AL Central. Chicago leads the division and has an 85.6% playoff probability. Cleveland is at 51.3%, while Detroit falls to 1.6% despite a 75-61 expected record. FanGraphs is pricing roster and schedule outlook alongside the run totals, which is why Detroit's strong Pythagorean rate does not translate into a strong postseason forecast. 15
The individual WAR leaderboard adds weight to several team stories. Crow-Armstrong leads at 9.3 WAR for Chicago. Shohei Ohtani is second at 6.8 for Los Angeles. Yordan Alvarez is fourth at 5.8 for Houston, while Philadelphia has Cristopher Sánchez at 5.7 and Jesús Luzardo at 4.9. Milwaukee has Jacob Misiorowski at 5.7 and Brice Turang at 4.2. 6
FanGraphs' current team leaderboard pages returned no rows for team wRC+, rotation ERA/FIP, or bullpen ERA. Those three same-date team splits remain unreported here; the table uses the available official runs, expected records, Pythagorean rates, playoff probabilities, and WAR values instead of estimating incompatible figures.
Injury watch
- Dodgers — Shohei Ohtani: Left knee inflammation interrupted his throwing progression after a 20-pitch bullpen session on Aug. 28. The team planned to decide the next step after returning to Los Angeles on Sept. 1. Will Smith was expected back Sept. 1. 7
- Yankees — Aaron Judge: Judge will travel on the Aug. 31–Sept. 6 West Coast trip while working toward a September return from a right-rib stress fracture. Max Fried is progressing from an elbow issue, and Ryan McMahon began a rehab assignment. 7
- Twins — Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan: Buxton went on the 10-day injured list with a right hip impingement. Ryan is expected to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment Sept. 1 and will likely need at least two appearances. 7
- Cardinals — JJ Wetherholt and Masyn Winn: Wetherholt went on the 10-day injured list with right-wrist tendinitis. Winn is progressing from a left-thumb fracture and could return during the Sept. 1–9 road trip. 7
- Padres — Luis Rengifo and Gavin Sheets: Rengifo suffered a right-knee sprain and Sheets a left-foot sprain; both went on the 10-day injured list Aug. 30. Joe Musgrove made his fourth rehab start and could make his next appearance for San Diego. 7
- Reds — Elly De La Cruz: De La Cruz left the Aug. 30 game with left-quadriceps tightness, in the same leg area that affected him during much of 2025. 7
- Braves — Hurston Waldrep and Robert Suarez: Waldrep will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the rest of 2026. Suarez is throwing on flat ground and could resume mound work as soon as Aug. 31. 7
The next seven days
The first set of games gives the board several direct tests. Milwaukee visits the Cubs on Aug. 31, putting the two strongest NL Central teams in a series that can test whether Chicago's 3-7 recent record is a slump or a deeper rotation problem. 1
Philadelphia visits Arizona on Aug. 31. The Phillies bring an 8-2 last 10 into a matchup with a Diamondbacks team that owns a 73-65 record but only a +5 run differential. The series should clarify whether Philadelphia's rise is mainly form or whether Arizona can regain ground in the Wild Card race. 1
Boston hosts Seattle, while the Yankees visit the Angels and Texas hosts the Athletics. Boston's 78-59 expected record faces Seattle's projected rest-of-season strength; New York's series begins Judge's road-trip watch; Texas needs wins against a last-place opponent after a season spent below .500. 15
Cleveland hosts Toronto on Sept. 1, and Minnesota hosts Detroit on Aug. 31. Cleveland's 8-2 run faces Toronto's three-game streak, while Detroit's strong run profile meets a Twins team with a 63-74 expected record. Those games will tell readers whether the biggest composite movements can survive a new week of direct competition. 1
The board still begins with Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. The more useful questions sit behind them: whether Cleveland can turn a hot week into a division lead, whether Detroit's run profile can outlast its roster losses, and whether Seattle's projected strength can overcome a 64-73 record.
References
- 1MLB standings
mlb.com
- 2ESPN MLB Power Rankings Week 22
espn.com
- 3The Athletic MLB Power Rankings
nytimes.com
- 4
- 5FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds
fangraphs.com
- 6FanGraphs WAR Leaderboards
fangraphs.com
- 7MLB injury updates
mlb.com
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