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2026-10-14

The Deli Case Cuts a Dollar Off

Grocery Price Lullabies
Grocery Price Lullabies@Sam Okonknwo
The Deli Case Cuts a Dollar Off

Mid-October, the case light hums

0:00 / 3:18
This week the lens is the deli counter: the cold case of plastic tubs at the back of the store, and the hot case standing beside it. The track is the channel's usual lo-fi soft-pop lullaby at a slow sway — Rhodes piano and brushed drums behind one close, dry-humored vocal — and this week it reads the sale cards on both sides of the glass. The chorus keeps humming everything went up again; the cold case cuts a dollar off one tub and the hot shelf quietly adds most of it back.
The newest official BLS month is still August 2026, released September 11, and it is nearly flat. Food at home sat at 321.5, a quarter of a point under July's 321.643 and 2.2% above a year earlier. 1 The sub-index that carries a deli counter, meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, came in at 351.501, up 0.9 of a point on July and 1.1% above August 2025. 2 The closest official average price for the counter's own goods is boneless ham at $5.382 a pound, eleven cents under July's $5.492 and five under last August's $5.432. 3 September's reading is due today; at the time of writing the official month had not moved.
The movement is in this fortnight's sale paper. USDA's weekly grocery feature reports, dated October 9, 2026, covering advertised prices running October 3 to 15 and gathered from 25,521 store outlets, show grocers leaning hardest on the meat and deli counters: beef was featured in 93.1% of those outlets, up from 85.8% a week earlier and 85.2% a year ago. 4 Inside the case the two directions sit a shelf apart. A five-to-fifteen-ounce tub of self-service deli beef advertised at $8.40 in 1,442 stores, against $9.54 the week before and $9.67 a year ago. 4 A deli chicken tub of the same size climbed to $7.97 in 2,089 stores, from $7.40, and the same size ham tub to $6.25, from $5.87. 56
The hot case went its own way. A whole rotisserie chicken under two pounds advertised at $6.80, a dollar and six cents under the previous week's $7.86. 5 The sliced-to-order counter did the reverse: service deli roast beef moved to $13.30 a pound from $12.57. 4 The sandwich shelf beside it filled in the gaps. Sliced cheese in the six-to-eight-ounce pack stepped to $2.88 from $2.53, and the block to $3.86 from $3.26, while a gallon of milk advertised at $3.37, up fifty-five cents in a week, and the half-gallon at $2.42, up sixty-five. 7
The anchors kept to their habits. Eggs averaged $2.272 a dozen in August, against $3.587 last August, 8 and they turned up in 45.8% of this fortnight's circulars — up from 42.9% a week earlier and 28.1% a year ago — with a dozen large white conventional eggs advertised at $1.46 in 471 stores, against $1.10 last week and $2.65 last year. 9 Milk averaged $4.229 a gallon, six cents above last August's $4.171, 10 and white bread $1.823 a pound, half a cent above July and 1.8 cents under last August. 11
So the chorus does what it always does, and the cold case cuts a dollar off one tub while the hot shelf takes most of it back. Put it on while you unwrap a sandwich, while the kettle heats, or at bedtime. Everything here is a national average or an advertised price, not a promise about the counter in any one store.

References

  1. 1
    BLS Consumer Price Index, food at home, series CUUR0000SAF11

    fred.stlouisfed.org

  2. 2
    BLS Consumer Price Index, meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, series CUUR0000SAF112

    fred.stlouisfed.org

  3. 3
    BLS average price data, ham, boneless, excluding canned, series APU0000704312

    fred.stlouisfed.org

  4. 4
    USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Beef Feature Activity, October 9, 2026

    ams.usda.gov

  5. 5
    USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Chicken Feature Activity, October 9, 2026

    ams.usda.gov

  6. 6
    USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Pork Feature Activity, October 9, 2026

    ams.usda.gov

  7. 7
    USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Dairy Feature Activity, October 9, 2026

    ams.usda.gov

  8. 8
    BLS average price data, eggs, grade A large, series APU0000708111

    fred.stlouisfed.org

  9. 9
    USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Egg Feature Activity, October 9, 2026

    ams.usda.gov

  10. 10
    BLS average price data, whole milk, series APU0000709112

    fred.stlouisfed.org

  11. 11
    BLS average price data, white bread, series APU0000702111

    fred.stlouisfed.org

Grocery Price Lullabies
Grocery Price Lullabies@Sam Okonknwo

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