2026-08-11｜黄金报4411.77美元，油价仍在高位

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-11 09:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-10T17:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-11T01:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260811-gold-0030gmt", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透报现货金涨 0.5%至 4411.77 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 97, "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:49:45.186Z", "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:30:00Z", "spot_gold": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4411.77, "change_percent": 0.5 }, "us_gold_futures": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4472.10, "change_percent": 1.2 }, "source_context": "Reuters reported that spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,411.77 per ounce as of 0030 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.2% to $4,472.10." }, "transmission_chain": "现货金与黄金期货同步上涨→无息资产的相对吸引力与避险买盘增强→AU 短线价格获得支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径金价回吐本次涨幅且实际利率或美元重新成为主导变量时，本事件的短线支撑方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AG-20260811-silver-0030gmt", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透报现货银涨 0.6%至 66.16 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 97, "direction_score": { "AG": 1 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:49:45.186Z", "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:30:00Z", "spot_silver": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 66.16, "change_percent": 0.6 }, "source_context": "Reuters reported that spot silver rose 0.6% to $66.16 per ounce as of 0030 GMT." }, "transmission_chain": "现货银上涨 0.6%→贵金属风险偏好与避险需求短线改善→AG 短线价格获得支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径银价回落并伴随贵金属资金流转弱时，本事件的短线支撑方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260810-dollar-index-2323z", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透更新美元指数涨 0.17%至 99.81", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T23:23:26.655Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T23:23:26.655Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "updated", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:25:46.604Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-10T23:23:26.655Z", "dollar_index": { "level": 99.81, "change_percent": 0.17 }, "source_context": "Reuters updated its global-markets page at 2026-08-10T23:23:26.655Z and reported that the dollar index rose 0.17% to 99.81." }, "transmission_chain": "美元指数涨至 99.81→美元计价贵金属的持有成本上升→AU 与 AG 短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美元指数回落至更新前水平或贵金属上涨同时伴随美元继续走强时，本事件的短线承压方向作废", "source_urls": [ 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that the benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield rose 4.25 basis points to 4.701%, from 4.658%." }, "transmission_chain": "美国 10 年期名义收益率升至 4.701%→持有无息贵金属的机会成本上升→AU 与 AG 短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 10 年期收益率回落至 4.658%附近或实际利率下行成为主导变量时，本事件的短线承压方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "treasury-AUAG-20260810-tips-curve", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美国财政部 10 年实际收益率升至 2.43%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 99, "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-10", "publication_time_disclosed": false, "daily_treasury_par_real_yield_curve_percent": { "5_year": 2.16, "7_year": 2.28, "10_year": 2.43, "20_year": 2.79, "30_year": 3.00 }, "prior_source_date": "2026-08-07", "prior_daily_treasury_par_real_yield_curve_percent": { "5_year": 2.13, "7_year": 2.25, "10_year": 2.40, "20_year": 2.75, "30_year": 2.96 }, "source_context": "The U.S. Treasury table shows a new 2026-08-10 row. The page discloses the data date but not a publication time; the required published_at_utc is normalized to the date boundary and event_time_utc remains null with day_only quality." }, "transmission_chain": "TIPS 实际收益率曲线较 8 月 7 日全线升高→通胀保值债券相对回报上升、无息贵金属机会成本增加→AU 与 AG 中短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同一官方曲线实际收益率回落至 8 月 7 日水平附近或贵金属避险买盘完全压过利率变量时，本事件的承压方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260810-fedwatch-september-1913z", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透更新 9 月加息定价升至 52%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T19:13:32.310Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T19:13:32.310Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "status": "updated", "confidence": 93, "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T02:22:56.528Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-10T19:13:32.310Z", "september_fed_rate_hike_probability_percent": 52, "december_fed_rate_hike_probability_percent": 81, "actual": "原文未披露", "consensus": "原文未披露", "prior": "原文未披露", "source_context": "Reuters reported that traders were pricing a 52% chance of a September rate hike and an 81% chance of a December rate hike." }, "transmission_chain": "9 月加息概率定价升至 52%→短端利率预期偏鹰、无息资产机会成本上升→AU 中短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续利率期货定价显著下调 9 月或 12 月加息概率，或通胀与就业数据重新压低实际利率时，本事件的承压方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260811-hormuz-oil-0013gmt", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "霍尔木兹预期偏弱，布伦特报 87.81 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:38:17.929Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:13:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 0 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:38:17.929Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:40:39.391Z", "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:13:00Z", "brent_crude": { "price_usd_per_barrel": 87.81, "change": "flat" }, "wti_crude": { "price_usd_per_barrel": 82.20, "change": "flat" }, "source_context": "Reuters reported that oil prices held near more than one-week highs as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded; Brent was $87.81 and WTI was $82.20 at 0013 GMT." }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹重开预期走弱且油价维持高位→能源供给与通胀风险上升、避险需求增强→AU 获得支撑，AG 的工业需求效应部分抵消", "invalidation_conditions": "伊朗与美国达成并执行重开霍尔木兹的安排，或布伦特与 WTI 跌回更新前水平并消除供应风险时，本事件的方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260811-jazan-refinery-400kbd", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "沙特阿美延迟 40 万桶日炼厂重启", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:38:17.929Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:38:17.929Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 93, "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "jazan_refinery_capacity_barrels_per_day": 400000, "postponed_restart_date": "2026-08-30", "reason_reported": "After two attacks claimed by the Houthis on the plant on Sunday", "source_context": "Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco postponed the restart of its 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery to August 30." }, "transmission_chain": "40 万桶日炼厂重启延后→区域成品油供给恢复时间推迟、能源价格风险延长→AU 避险与通胀溢价获得支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "沙特阿美提前恢复该炼厂运行或后续供给数据显示区域能源缺口已消失时，本事件的方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260811-hormuz-flows-3mbpd", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "霍尔木兹周流量降至 300 万桶日", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:38:17.929Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T00:38:17.929Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 90, "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "measurement_period": "week ending 2026-08-07", "crude_oil_and_refined_product_net_exports_through_hormuz_barrels_per_day": 3000000, "prior_week_barrels_per_day": 4400000, "change_barrels_per_day": -1400000, "attribution": "Barclays analysts, as quoted by Reuters", "source_context": "Reuters reported that Barclays analysts estimated crude oil and refined product net exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 3 million barrels per day in the week ending August 7, down from 4.4 million barrels per day the prior week." }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹净出口由 440 万降至 300 万桶日→区域能源流量收缩、供应风险上升→AU 避险与通胀溢价获得支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续周度流量恢复至 440 万桶日或更高并持续，且油价与通胀预期同步回落时，本事件的方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走世界黄金协会当前数据页及其下载项，并对 Reuters 做定向检索；WGC 页面标注 2026-08-10，但只提供周度、月度更新和 Gold ETF Flows: July 2026 下载项，未提供窗口内可核验的 GLD/SLV 逐日持仓数字，Reuters 定向检索也未返回窗口内持仓条目。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows)](https://gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows))" ] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级与 SHFE AU/AG 仓单", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改查 SHFE 官方入口并对 Reuters 做定向检索；SHFE 当前返回 WAF 人机识别页，未取得 AU/AG 仓单明细，Reuters 检索未返回窗口内 COMEX 金银库存分级数字；CFTC 当前可读页面为持仓报告而非库存明细，未以入口壳、搜索摘要或交割通知替代事实。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/", "[https://www.[cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm)](https://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm))" ] } ] }