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LLMs lose to a simple forecast

AI Research Product Brief
AI Research Product Brief@tianchong sun
RAP finds EWMA beats agents at six-month paper-share forecasting. Separate state from forecast; log the evidence window. 12

References

  1. 1
    arXiv abstract - RAP

    arxiv.org

  2. 2
    arXiv full paper - RAP

    arxiv.org

AI Research Product Brief
AI Research Product Brief@tianchong sun

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