The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypass pipeline, Mecca Pact defence chiefs fly to Tehran, Musk and Kyiv argue over Starlink, China's plenum opens on a four-year-high yuan, and Taiwan moves to strip residency from Hong Kong agents: five geopolitical signals for October 26, 2026
The Houthis claim they hit Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline and Riyadh's airport as the Saudi defence minister heads to Tehran with Pakistani and Turkish counterparts, Ukraine disputes Musk's Starlink account while Zelenskyy sets a November date for trilateral talks, China's party plenum opens with the yuan at a four-year high, and Taiwan plans to revoke the residency of Hong Kongers who carry out transnational repression.
The Houthis said on Monday they had struck Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline and Riyadh's airport, extending a campaign that has already produced the deadliest single Houthi attack of the war.
On the same day, the kingdom's defence minister was due in Tehran with his Pakistani and Turkish counterparts. Oil fell anyway, as traders spent the weekend pricing the weeks after the American midterms.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen: a claim on the Hormuz bypass
- The Houthis said they attacked the pumping stations of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Monday. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation 1.
- The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed two ballistic missile launchers in Sanaa, one of them used to fire a missile at Riyadh that the coalition said it intercepted 1.
- The 1,200-km pipeline was shut for a period in September as a precaution after a drone attack that Riyadh and Baghdad said originated in Iraq. It has carried exports while the Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed 1.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact Brent for December delivery fell 1.9% to $114.52 a barrel by 12:39 p.m. in Singapore, and WTI dropped 2.2% to $100.99. Brent touched a six-month high last week and is up more than 85% this year 2.
The East-West line is the route that lets Saudi crude reach the Red Sea without passing Iran's coast, which is why the Houthi advance along Yemen's Red Sea coast matters beyond Yemen 1. The group has moved towards the Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint at the far end of that route 1.
Riyadh's airport reopened two terminals on Sunday, after an attack this month that killed 13 people, the deadliest in the kingdom in more than a decade 1. The coalition also reported intercepting a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait and 10 ballistic missiles fired at southern Saudi Arabia 3.
Debris from two intercepted missiles in Khamis Mushait and Ahad Rafidah injured two people and damaged three residential buildings and seven vehicles, the Saudi civil defence agency said 3.
Saudi Arabia has no air-defence cover at some of the bases it uses inside Yemen. Three Houthi ballistic missiles hit a training camp at al-Alam in Shabwah on October 19, killing at least 75 people and wounding more than 200, including Saudi troops, in the deadliest single Houthi attack of the war. Local authorities in Shabwah said the site had no air-defence or early-warning systems and asked Riyadh to speed their delivery 4.
The war's other front is Taiz, which the Houthis have besieged and where the United Nations says time is running out to reach 800,000 trapped people. Houthi fighters advanced on Jabal Sabr, the mountain overlooking the city, on Sunday 3.
Saudi Arabia is also moving its oil closer to its buyers. Aramco will store crude at Singapore's Jurong Rock Caverns from the second half of 2027, in caverns 150 metres underground that hold up to 1.47 million cubic metres, roughly 9 million barrels. Asia bought two-thirds of its oil from the Middle East before the war 5.
Aramco already keeps crude in Japan, where storage at Okinawa was expanded to 8.2 million barrels in 2017, and 5.3 million barrels at Ulsan in South Korea under a 2023 deal 5. Japan is negotiating to expand reserves across Asia under a programme Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi proposed this year, with $10 billion behind it 5.
Iran, the Mecca Pact and Israel: three defence chiefs in Tehran
- Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkey's intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin were due in Tehran on Monday for consultations with Iran's Supreme National Security Council 6.
- This is the first high-level contact between Iran and all three members of the Mecca Pact since Saudi Arabia was drawn deeper into the war. It follows a Sunday meeting in Tehran between Qatari mediators and Iranian officials 6.
- President Trump, asked whether he planned to strike Iran, said there would be no attack "today". Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said Tehran had kept the door to diplomacy open and was still passing messages to Washington through intermediaries 7.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact Oil fell into a week whose calendar does the work. Israel votes on Tuesday and the US midterms fall on November 3, and Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the market is pricing escalation risk for after the midterms, "when Washington may feel less constrained by the immediate political cost of higher oil prices" 2.
Both countries have drawn up plans to restart the wider war, possibly after the November 3 vote, Reuters reported 6. Brent's 14-day relative-strength index topped 74 on Friday, above the 70 level that some traders read as a signal of a pullback 2.
Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank of Australia put the demand-destruction threshold at $150 a barrel, the level he said would force lower consumption in emerging Asia 2.
Iranian security officials told Reuters that Tehran has drawn up detailed plans to cut Gulf undersea cables if the United States and Israel attack again 6. Under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August, an armed attack on one member counts as an attack on all; Pakistan ratified the pact last week and Turkey's parliament began ratification this month 6.
The head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, flew over the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and said more than 3,000 commercial vessels had transited with American military support in the past six months 7. Central Command separately says more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude have passed through Hormuz with American assistance since the summer 2.
Israel's campaign has turned on Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran or its allies could strike before Tuesday's vote to disrupt it, and that the army was ready to defend and to attack 7. Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu and the military chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, had clashed over a political directive related to Iran; Netanyahu called the report nonsense, and his rival Gadi Eisenkot publicly backed Zamir 7.
Polls published on Friday, the last permitted under Israeli law, put the governing coalition and the main opposition bloc almost level. Half a million first-time voters are eligible, and about 70,000 Israelis are reported to be flying home to vote 8.
Russia and Ukraine: a satellite argument, and a date for talks
- Elon Musk said Ukraine's military violated Starlink's terms of service by using the civilian network for offensive drone strikes, and that "that loophole was closed last week" 9.
- Serhii Beskrestnov, a defence technology adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said drones running on civilian Starlink were capped at 70-90 km/h inside Ukraine and did not work over Russia, so medium-range and deep strikes were impossible on that system 9.
- Zelenskyy said Starshield, the military version, had worked at speeds of up to 420 km/h since early Saturday, after a meeting in Oslo with the US envoy Steve Witkoff, and that US warnings of incoming ballistic missiles were fully restored 10.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact Ukraine's own count of the past week is about 1,600 guided bombs, 48 missiles of various types and almost 2,300 strike drones, across nine regions, with power plants and grain stores among the targets 10. Zelenskyy said a trilateral meeting with Washington and Moscow would take place in November, and that Ukraine would not discuss limits on its armed forces or enforced neutrality there 10.
Washington wants Kyiv to stop striking Russian oil refineries, which it says push fuel prices higher. Zelenskyy says he will stop if Moscow stops hitting power infrastructure, if Starshield is allowed over Russia to find launch sites, or if Patriot missiles are supplied 11.
A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Voronezh region killed two men and injured 17 people, including a child, governor Alexander Gusev said. He said air defences destroyed 113 drones over the region and fires broke out at several industrial sites 11.
Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia injured four people, and two more were hurt in the Chernihiv region, local officials said 11. Russia's defence ministry said it hit power stations in Kharkiv and Khmelnytskyi, a warehouse in the Kharkiv region, port infrastructure at Chornomorsk and a cargo vessel bound for Odesa 11.
The Russian ministry also said on Sunday that its drones had struck one cargo vessel heading for Chornomorsk and another heading for Odesa, which it said were supplying the Ukrainian army. Reuters could not confirm the claims 10.
China: a plenum about the party, and a currency at a four-year high
- The Communist Party opened its fifth plenum in Beijing on Monday, a four-day closed meeting of the Central Committee aimed at "full and rigorous party self-governance". Xi Jinping briefed the committee on a draft document covering governing capacity, complacency and corruption 12.
- Analysts describe this as the last major party gathering before the 2027 leadership reshuffle, when Xi is expected to take a fourth term 12.
- The yuan reached a four-year high against the dollar on Monday. The People's Bank of China set the midpoint at 6.7162, its strongest since February 2023, and onshore spot touched 6.6682, its strongest since June 2022 13.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact The midpoint came in 471 pips weaker than Reuters' estimate of 6.6691, the widest gap on the weak side since September 23. Traders read that gap as the central bank slowing the pace of appreciation 13.
Barclays said in a note that the PBOC "continues to resist a faster pace of appreciation via weaker than market-expected fixings" 13. Goldman Sachs kept a 12-month target of 6.40 per dollar, arguing that consensus forecasts underestimate how far the currency can rise from a deeply undervalued starting point 13.
The plenum's case to investors is being made by the party's own publicity. A Xinhua commentary published with the opening said the anti-corruption drive "signals greater predictability" for global investors and policymakers, and that merit and the rule of law were displacing connections and bribery 12.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank all meet this week, and all three are expected to hold rates while keeping a hawkish tone 13.
Taiwan Strait: three aircraft return, and a plan to strip residency
- Taiwan's defence ministry reported three PLA aircraft, one of them crossing the median line into the south-western and eastern airspace, plus six PLA Navy ships and nine official Chinese ships in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on Monday 14.
- A day earlier the same count showed no PLA aircraft, five navy ships and eight official ships, so the aircraft are back and the official fleet is up by one 15.
- An official familiar with the matter said Hong Kongers who work with China to carry out transnational repression in Taiwan would lose their Taiwanese citizenship or residency. The comment followed arrest warrants issued on October 7 for two Hong Kongers accused of hiring a Taiwanese investigation agency to follow a DPP legislator, Puma Shen, in 2024 16.
Market and Supply-Chain Impact Which law a case lands under sets the penalty. Prosecutors indicted two Taiwanese investigators, Cheng Yung-chin and Hsieh Yi-chen, and two employees under the Personal Data Protection Act 16.
The official argued that ordinary statutes bring penalties too lenient for what Taiwan calls offences against national interests, and said the Ministry of Justice is considering amendments to the Anti-Infiltration Act to raise them 16.
Judicial cooperation between Taiwan and Hong Kong has almost frozen, so the case depends on the two Hong Kong suspects, Kuk Kok-yin and Lam Hing, entering Taiwan. They are not currently in the country 16.
Prosecutors say the pair hired the agency on September 5, 2024, and that Shen and his family were followed from October 1 to November 8 that year, with footage sent by Telegram 16. Shen is the DPP's candidate for Taipei mayor in next month's local elections 16.
The official also cited the July assault on the Japanese commentator Akio Yaita. A Hong Konger, Liao Gangfa, was indicted on October 6 on charges including assault and participation in a criminal organisation, with prosecutors seeking five years 16.
Lee Ming-che, a human rights activist once detained in China, used a separate appearance to call for a foreign agent registration law modelled on the American one 17.
References
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- 16HK agents risk losing Taiwan status|Taipei Times
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- 17New laws needed to fight repression: activist|Taipei Times
taipeitimes.com
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