HPMOR 第22章｜科学方法（中英对照）
哈利说服赫敏当第一个实验对象，用十六道咒语去撞一个问题：魔法到底听不听你念咒；地下城里，德拉科以「马尔福博士」的身份审一篇论文，却撞上一个谁都没想过的假说。
英文原文取自 HPMOR 官方第 22 章。下文保留章首题记，并严格按官方故事正文的自然段与分隔线逐段排列：每组英文在上、中文在下；中文为依据英文独立校订的非官方译文。hpmor.xyz 对应章 仅用于核对理解、专名、术语与遗漏，未原样转载。
The key to strategy is not to choose a path to J. K. Rowling, but to choose so that all paths lead to a J. K. Rowling.
战略的要诀，不在于选定一条通往 J·K·罗琳的路，而在于做出这样的选择：让条条路都通到 J·K·罗琳。
A small study room, near but not in the Ravenclaw dorm, one of the many many unused rooms of Hogwarts. Gray stone the floors, red brick the walls, dark stained wood the ceiling, four glowing glass globes set into the four walls of the room. A circular table that looked like a wide slab of black marble set on thick black marble legs for columns, but which had proved to be very light (weight and mass both) and wasn't difficult to pick up and move around if necessary. Two comfortably cushioned chairs which had seemed at first to be locked to the floor in inconvenient places, but which would, the two of them had finally discovered, scoot around to where you stood as soon as you leaned over in a posture that looked like you were about to sit down.
一间小小的自习室，紧挨着拉文克劳的寝室，但不在寝室里面，是霍格沃茨那多得数不清的空房间之一。地板是灰石头的，墙是红砖的，天花板是染成深色的木头，房间的四壁上各嵌着一只发光的玻璃球。正中一张圆桌，看上去像一整块黑大理石板架在四根粗黑大理石柱腿上，可实际上轻得很（重量和质量都轻），真要挪地方，搬起来并不费劲。还有两把垫得舒舒服服的椅子，起初像是被钉死在地板上几个不方便的位置上，可两人后来总算发现，只要你俯下身去，摆出要坐的架势，椅子就会自己滑到你站的地方来。
There also seemed to be a number of bats flying around the room.
房间里似乎还飞着不少蝙蝠。
That was where, future historians would one day record - if the whole project ever actually amounted to anything - the scientific study of magic had begun, with two young first-year Hogwarts students.
将来有一天，历史学家会把这件事记下来——对魔法的科学研究，就是从那里开的头，如果这整个项目最后真能折腾出什么名堂的话。动手开这个头的，是两个年轻的霍格沃茨一年级学生。
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres, theorist.
哈利·詹姆斯·波特-伊万斯-维雷斯，理论家。
And Hermione Jean Granger, experimenter and test subject.
还有赫敏·简·格兰杰，实验者兼实验对象。
Harry was doing better in classes now, at least the classes he considered interesting. He'd read more books, and not books for eleven-year-olds either. He'd practiced Transfiguration over and over during one of his extra hours every day, taking the other hour for beginning Occlumency. He was taking the worthwhile classes seriously, not just turning in his homework every day, but using his free time to learn more than was required, to read other books beyond the given textbooks, looking to master the subject and not just memorize a few test answers, to excel. You didn't see that much outside Ravenclaw. And now even within Ravenclaw, his only remaining competitors were Padma Patil (whose parents came from a non-English-speaking culture and thus had raised her with an actual work ethic), Anthony Goldstein (out of a certain tiny ethnic group that won 25% of the Nobel Prizes), and of course, striding far above everyone like a Titan strolling through a pack of puppies, Hermione Granger.
哈利现在的功课比从前好了，至少在他觉得有意思的那几门课上。他读的书更多了，而且不是写给十一岁孩子看的那种书。每天多出来的两个小时，他拿一个小时反反复复练变形术，另一个小时用来入门大脑封闭术。那些值得学的课，他是认真在学的：不是把作业交上去就算完，而是利用课余时间学超出要求的东西，读课本以外的书；他要的是真正掌握这门学问，不只是背下几个考试答案，是要出类拔萃。在拉文克劳之外，很少见到有人这样。而如今即便在拉文克劳内部，他剩下的对手也只有帕德玛·佩蒂尔（她父母来自一个母语不是英语的文化，因此把她教养成了一个真肯下功夫的人）、安东尼·戈德斯坦（出身某个拿走了四分之一诺贝尔奖的小小族群），当然还有赫敏·格兰杰——她大步走在所有人前头，像一尊泰坦巨人在一群小狗中间走过。
To run this particular experiment you needed the test subject to learn sixteen new spells, on their own, without help or correction. That meant the test subject was Hermione. Period.
要做这个实验，实验对象得自己学会十六个新咒语，没人帮忙，也没人纠正。也就是说，实验对象只能是赫敏。就这样。
It should be mentioned at this point that the bats flying around the room were not glowing.
这里得提一句：此刻在屋里四处乱飞的蝙蝠，并没有发光。
Harry was having trouble accepting the implications of this.
这件事背后意味着什么，哈利一时接受不了。
"Oogely boogely! " Hermione said again.
「Oogely boogely！」赫敏又说了一遍。
Again, at the tip of Hermione's wand, there was the abrupt, transitionless appearance of a bat. One moment, empty air. The next moment, bat. Its wings seemed to be already moving in the instant when it appeared.
又一次，赫敏的魔杖尖端突然冒出一只蝙蝠，没有任何过渡。前一瞬间，只有空气。后一瞬间，蝙蝠。它出现的那一刹那，翅膀似乎已经在扇动了。
And it still wasn't glowing.
可它仍然没有发光。
"Can I stop now?" said Hermione.
「我能停了吗？」赫敏说。
"Are you sure," Harry said through what seemed to be a block in his throat, "that maybe with a bit more practice you couldn't get it to glow?" He was violating the experimental procedure he'd written down beforehand, which was a sin, and he was violating it because he didn't like the results he was getting, which was a mortal sin, you could go to Science Hell for that, but it didn't seem to be mattering anyway.
「你确定吗，」哈利说，喉咙里像堵着什么东西，「你再多练几遍，也不能让它发光？」他这是在违反自己事先写下的实验流程，这是一桩罪；而他违反它的理由，是嫌自己拿到的结果不好看，这就是死罪了，为这个你是要下科学地狱的；可这一切看上去反正都无所谓了。
"What did you change this time?" Hermione said, sounding a little weary.
「你这次改了什么？」赫敏说，语气有点疲惫。
"The durations of the oo, eh, and ee sounds. It's supposed to be 3 to 2 to 2, not 3 to 1 to 1."
「oo、eh、ee 这三个音的长短。本来该是三比二比二，不是三比一比一。」
"Oogely boogely! " said Hermione.
「Oogely boogely！」赫敏说。
The bat materialized with only one wing and spun pathetically to the floor, flopping around in a circle on the gray stone.
蝙蝠成形的时候只有一只翅膀，可怜兮兮地打着旋儿摔到地上，在灰石头上扑腾着转圈。
"Now what is it really?" said Hermione.
「那正确的到底是多少？」赫敏说。
"3 to 2 to 1."
「三比二比一。」
"Oogely boogely! "
「Oogely boogely！」
This time the bat didn't have any wings at all and fell with a plop like a dead mouse.
这一次蝙蝠连一只翅膀都没有，像只死老鼠一样啪嗒一声掉下来。
"3 to 1 to 2."
「三比一比二。」
And lo the bat did materialize and it did fly up at once toward the ceiling, healthy and glowing a bright green.
于是瞧吧，蝙蝠当真成形了，当即朝天花板飞上去，健健康康，通身发出明亮的绿光。
Hermione nodded in satisfaction. "Okay, what next?"
赫敏满意地点了点头。「好，接下来做什么？」
There was a long pause.
长长的沉默。
"Seriously? You seriously have to say Oogely boogely with the duration of the oo, eh, and ee sounds having a ratio of 3 to 1 to 2, or the bat won't glow? Why? Why? For the love of all that is sacred, why? "
「当真？你当真必须把 Oogely boogely 念出来，还要让 oo、eh、ee 这三个音的长短成三比一比二，不然那蝙蝠就不亮？为什么？为什么？苍天在上，到底为什么？」
"Why not?"
「为什么不呢？」
"AAAAAAAAARRRRRRGHHHH! "
「啊啊啊啊啊啊——啊啊啊啊！」
Thud. Thud. Thud.
咚。咚。咚。
Harry had thought about the nature of magic for a while, and then designed a series of experiments based on the premise that virtually everything wizards believed about magic was wrong.
哈利琢磨过一阵魔法的本质，然后按这样一个前提设计了一系列实验：巫师们关于魔法的信念，几乎每一条都是错的。
You couldn't really need to say 'Wingardium Leviosa' in exactly the right way in order to levitate something, because, come on, 'Wingardium Leviosa'? The universe was going to check that you said 'Wingardium Leviosa' in exactly the right way and otherwise it wouldn't make the quill float?
你不可能真的必须把「羽加迪姆·勒维奥萨」念得完全准确，才能让一样东西飘起来——得了吧，「羽加迪姆·勒维奥萨」？宇宙会来检查你有没有把「羽加迪姆·勒维奥萨」念得一丝不差，念错了就不让羽毛笔浮起来？
No. Obviously no, once you thought about it seriously. Someone, quite possibly an actual preschool child, but at any rate some English-speaking magic user, who thought that 'Wingardium Leviosa' sounded all flyish and floaty, had originally spoken those words while casting the spell for the first time. And then told everyone else it was necessary.
不。只要你认真想一想，显然是不。当初有个人——很可能就是个学前班小孩，总之是个说英语的魔法师——觉得「羽加迪姆·勒维奥萨」听上去又飞又飘，就在第一次施这个咒的时候念了这几个词，然后告诉其他所有人：非得这么念不可。
But (Harry had reasoned) it didn't have to be that way, it wasn't built into the universe, it was built into you.
但是（哈利推断），事情并不必是这个样子：它不是宇宙里长出来的，而是在你身上长出来的。
There was an old story passed down among scientists, a cautionary tale, the story of Blondlot and the N-Rays.
科学家中间流传着一个老故事，一则告诫，讲的是布朗洛和 N 射线。
Shortly after the discovery of X-Rays, an eminent French physicist named Prosper-Rene Blondlot - who had been first to measure the speed of radio waves and show that they propagated at the speed of light - had announced the discovery of an amazing new phenomenon, N-Rays, which would induce a faint brightening of a screen. You had to look hard to see it, but it was there. N-Rays had all sorts of interesting properties. They were bent by aluminium and could be focused by an aluminium prism into striking a treated thread of cadmium sulfide, which would then glow faintly in the dark...
X 射线被发现之后不久，一位声名卓著的法国物理学家，名叫普罗斯佩·勒内·布朗洛——他第一个测出了无线电波的速度，并证明它以光速传播——宣布自己发现了一种令人惊叹的新现象：N 射线，它能让一块屏幕微微发亮。你得使劲看才能看见，可它确实在那儿。N 射线有各种各样有趣的特性。铝能把它弯折，用铝棱镜聚焦之后，还能打到一根经过处理的硫化镉丝线上，丝线随即在黑暗里发出微光……
Soon dozens of other scientists had confirmed Blondlot's results, especially in France.
不久，另外几十位科学家都证实了布朗洛的发现，其中法国最多。
But there were still other scientists, in England and Germany, who said they weren't quite sure they could see that faint glow.
但在英国和德国，仍然另有一批科学家说，他们不太确定自己看见了那道微光。
Blondlot had said they were probably setting up the machinery wrong.
布朗洛说，多半是他们的仪器搭错了。
One day Blondlot had given a demonstration of N-Rays. The lights had turned out, and his assistant had called off the brightening and darkening as Blondlot performed his manipulations.
有一次，布朗洛做了一场 N 射线演示。灯熄了，布朗洛摆弄仪器，助手就在一旁报出屏幕什么时候变亮、什么时候变暗。
It had been a normal demonstration, all the results going as expected.
那是一场再普通不过的演示，所有结果都和预期一致。
Even though an American scientist named Robert Wood had quietly stolen the aluminium prism from the center of Blondlot's mechanism.
尽管一位美国科学家——罗伯特·伍德——已经悄悄把铝棱镜从布朗洛装置的正中央偷走了。
And that had been the end of N-Rays.
N 射线就此了结。
Reality, Philip K. Dick had once said, is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.
现实，菲利普·K·迪克说过，是这样一种东西：你不再相信它了，它也不肯消失。
Blondlot's sin had been obvious in retrospect. He shouldn't have told his assistant what he was doing. Blondlot should have made sure the assistant didn't know what was being tried or when it was being tried, before asking him to describe the screen's brightness. It could have been that simple.
回头看，布朗洛的过错一清二楚。他不该告诉助手自己在做什么。他该先确保助手不知道在试什么、什么时候试，再去问助手屏幕有多亮。本来可以就这么简单。
Nowadays it was called "blinding" and it was one of the things modern scientists took for granted. If you were doing a psychology experiment to see whether people got angrier when they were hit over the head with red truncheons than with green truncheons, you didn't get to look at the subjects yourself and decide how "angry" they were. You would snap photos of them after they'd been hit with the truncheon, and send the photos off to a panel of raters, who would rate on a scale of 1 to 10 how angry each person looked, obviously without knowing what color of truncheon they'd been hit with. Indeed there was no good reason to tell the raters what the experiment was about, at all. You certainly wouldn't tell the experimental subjects that you thought they ought to be angrier when hit by red truncheons. You'd just offer them 20 pounds, lure them into a test room, hit them with a truncheon, color randomly assigned of course, and snap the photo. In fact the truncheon-hitting and photo-snapping would be done by an assistant who hadn't been told about the hypothesis, so he couldn't look expectant, hit harder, or snap the photo at just the right time.
如今这叫作「盲法」，是现代科学家习以为常的事情之一。假如你要做一项心理学实验，看人们挨红色警棍敲脑袋是不是比挨绿色警棍敲脑袋更容易生气，那你就不能自己盯着实验对象，由你定夺他们到底有多「生气」。等他们挨完警棍，你再给他们拍照，把照片送给一组评分员，请他们按一到十的等级，给每个人看起来有多生气打分，而他们显然不能知道这人挨的是哪种颜色的警棍。其实，根本没有理由告诉评分员这个实验在研究什么。你绝对不会告诉实验对象，说你认为他们挨红色警棍的时候应该更生气。你只会给他们二十英镑，把他们哄进一间测试室，用警棍敲他们一下——颜色当然是随机分配的——再按下快门。事实上，敲警棍和拍照该由一名没被告知假说的助手来做，这样他就不会一脸期待，不会下手更重，也不会正好挑中那个最合适的时机拍照。
Blondlot had destroyed his reputation with the sort of mistake that would get a failing grade and probably derisive laughter from the T.A. in a first-year undergraduate course on experimental design... in 1991.
布朗洛毁掉自己的名声，靠的就是这样一种错误——放在大一本科生的实验设计课上，这种错误会让你不及格，还多半会招来助教一阵耻笑……那是在 1991 年。
But this had been a bit longer ago, in 1904, and so it had taken months before Robert Wood had formulated the obvious alternative hypothesis and figured out how to test it, and dozens of other scientists had been sucked in.
但那是一段更早的往事，1904 年，所以拖了好几个月，罗伯特·伍德才提出那个显而易见的备择假设、想明白该怎么检验它，而在此期间，另有几十位科学家已经跟着陷了进去。
More than two centuries after science had gotten started. That late in scientific history, it still hadn't been obvious.
这已是科学起步两百多年之后。科学史都走到那么晚的时候，这件事居然还是不够明显。
Which made it entirely plausible that in the tiny wizarding world, where science didn't seem much known at all, no one had ever tried the first, the simplest, the most obvious thing that any modern scientist would think to check.
这样一来就完全可以想见：在那个小小的魔法世界里，那里的人似乎压根不太知道科学，从来没人试过那件事——任何现代科学家都会想到要检查的、头一条、最简单、最明显的那件事。
The books were full of complicated instructions for all the things you had to do exactly right in order to cast a spell. And, Harry had hypothesized, the process of obeying those instructions, of checking that you were following them correctly, probably did do something. It forced you to concentrate on the spell. Being told to just wave your wand and wish probably wouldn't work as well. And once you believed the spell was supposed to work a certain way, once you had practiced it that way, you might not be able to convince yourself that it could work any other way...
那些书里写满了复杂的说明，列出施一个咒时必须做得分毫不差的每一件事。而哈利提出的假设是：遵守这些说明、检查自己有没有照做，这个过程很可能确实起了作用。它逼着你把全副注意力放在这个咒语上。要是别人只叫你随便挥挥魔杖、心里许个愿，效果大概就没这么好。而一旦你相信这个咒语应该按某种方式起效，一旦你按那种方式练过，你可能就再也说服不了自己它还能用别的方式起效……
...if you did the simple but wrong thing, and tried to test alternative forms yourself.
……前提是，你做了那件简单却错误的事，自己动手去试别的形式。
But what if you didn't know what the original spell had been like?
可要是你根本不知道原来那个咒语是什么样子呢？
What if you gave Hermione a list of spells she hadn't studied yet, taken from a book of silly prank spells in the Hogwarts library, and some of those spells had the correct and original instructions, while others had one changed gesture, one changed word? What if you kept the instructions constant, but told her that a spell supposed to create a red worm was supposed to create a blue worm instead?
要是你从霍格沃茨图书馆一本胡闹的恶作剧咒语书里抄出一串赫敏还没学过的咒语给她，其中有些附的是书上原样正确的说明，另一些则改掉了一个手势，或者一个词，会怎样呢？要是说明原封不动，你只告诉她某个本该变出红色虫子的咒语其实该变出蓝色虫子，又会怎样呢？
Well, in that case, it had turned out...
好吧，在这个前提下，结果是……
...Harry was having trouble believing his results here...
……哈利对自己这次得到的结果，一时很难相信……
...if you told Hermione to say "Oogely boogely" with the vowel durations in the ratio of 3 to 1 to 1, instead of the correct ratio of 3 to 1 to 2, you still got the bat but it wouldn't glow any more.
……如果你让赫敏念 Oogely boogely，但把 oo、eh、ee 三个音的长短比说成三比一比一，而不是正确的三比一比二，那蝙蝠照样会出现，只是不会再发光了。
Not that belief was irrelevant here. Not that only the words and wand movements mattered.
这并不是说信念在这里无关紧要。也不是说只有咒语和魔杖动作才算数。
If you gave Hermione completely incorrect information about what a spell was supposed to do, it would stop working.
如果你在告诉赫敏这道咒语该有什么效果的时候，说的完全不对，它就会失灵。
If you didn't tell her at all what the spell was supposed to do, it would stop working.
如果你压根不告诉她这道咒语该有什么效果，咒语同样会失灵。
If she knew in very vague terms what the spell was supposed to do, or she was only partially wrong, then the spell would work as originally described in the book, not the way she'd been told it should.
如果她只是笼统地知道这道咒语是干什么用的，或者只弄错了一小部分，那么咒语依然有效，只是效果和书上原本写的一样，而不是她被告知的那样。
Harry was, at this moment, literally banging his head against the brick wall. Not hard. He didn't want to damage his precious brains. But if he didn't have some outlet for his frustration, he would spontaneously catch on fire.
此时此刻，哈利正拿自己的脑袋往砖墙上撞，是字面意义上的撞。撞得不算重，他不想弄坏自己那颗宝贵的大脑。可要是不给这份挫败感找个出口，他会当场自燃的。
Thud. Thud. Thud.
咚。咚。咚。
It seemed the universe actually did want you to say 'Wingardium Leviosa' and it wanted you to say it in a certain exact way and it didn't care what you thought the pronunciation should be any more than it cared how you felt about gravity.
看来这个宇宙确实就是要你说「羽加迪姆·勒维奥萨」，要你以某种分毫不差的特定方式说出来；至于你觉得这个音该怎么念，它一概不管，就像它不管你心里对重力是怎么想的一样。
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?
到底为什么啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊？
The worst part of it was the smug, amused look on Hermione's face.
最糟的是赫敏脸上那副既得意又想笑的表情。
Hermione had not been okay with sitting around obediently following Harry's instructions without being told why.
赫敏不肯乖乖坐着照哈利的吩咐做事，却不告诉她为什么。
So Harry had explained to her what they were testing.
于是哈利把他们在检验什么告诉了她。
Harry had explained why they were testing it.
哈利说明了他为什么要检验它。
Harry had explained why probably no wizard had tried it before them.
哈利说明了他俩之前大概没有哪个巫师试过这件事。
Harry had explained that he was actually fairly confident of his prediction.
哈利说明了他其实对自己的预测颇有信心。
Because, Harry had said, there was no way that the universe actually wanted you to say 'Wingardium Leviosa'.
因为，哈利说，这个宇宙绝不可能当真要你念「羽加迪姆·勒维奥萨」。
Hermione had pointed out that this was not what her books said. Hermione had asked if Harry really thought he was smarter, at eleven years old and just over a month into his Hogwarts education, than all the other wizards in the world who disagreed with him.
赫敏指出，她的课本上写的不是这样。赫敏问他：他是不是真以为自己十一岁、进霍格沃茨才一个多月，就比世上所有跟他看法相左的巫师都聪明？
Harry had said the following exact words:
哈利说的原话是这样的：
"Of course."
「当然。」
Now Harry was staring at the red brick directly in front of him and contemplating how hard he would have to hit his head in order to give himself a concussion that would interfere with long-term memory formation and prevent him from remembering this later. Hermione wasn't laughing, but he could feel her intent to laugh radiating out from behind him like a dreadful pressure on his skin, sort of like knowing you were being stalked by a serial killer only worse.
现在哈利盯着正前方那块红砖，琢磨着自己得撞多狠才能撞出一记脑震荡，让长期记忆没法形成，好让他以后再想不起这一幕。赫敏没笑，可他能感觉到她想笑的意图从背后辐射过来，像一种可怕的压力压在他皮肤上，有点像你发觉自己被连环杀手盯上了，只是更糟。
"Say it," Harry said.
「说吧。」哈利说。
"I wasn't going to," said the kindly voice of Hermione Granger. "It didn't seem nice."
「我本来没打算说，」赫敏·格兰杰的声音很温和，「那样显得不厚道。」
"Just get it over with," said Harry.
「快点说完吧。」哈利说。
"Okay! So you gave me this whole long lecture about how hard it was to do basic science and how we might need to stay on the problem for thirty-five years, and then you went and expected us to make the greatest discovery in the history of magic in the first hour we were working together. You didn't just hope, you really expected it. You're silly."
「好吧！你先给我上了好长一通课，讲做基础的科学研究有多难，讲我们可能得在这个问题上耗上三十五年，然后你一转头就指望我们在合作的第一个小时里做出魔法史上最伟大的发现。你不是盼着，你是当真认定会这样。你太傻了。」
"Thank you. Now -"
「谢谢你。那么——」
"I've read all the books you gave me and I still don't know what to call that. Overconfidence? Planning fallacy? Super duper Lake Wobegon effect? They'll have to name it after you. Harry Bias."
「你给我的书我全读了，可我还是不知道该管这个叫什么。过度自信？规划谬误？超级超级沃比冈湖效应？这毛病只好用你的名字来叫了。哈利偏差。」
"All right! "
「好啦！」
"But it is cute. It's such a boy thing to do."
「不过这确实挺可爱的。太像男孩子的做派了。」
"Drop dead."
「去死吧。」
"Aw, you say the most romantic things."
「哎，你净说些最浪漫的话。」
Thud. Thud. Thud.
咚。咚。咚。
"So what's next?" said Hermione.
「那接下来呢？」赫敏问。
Harry rested his head against the bricks. His forehead was starting to hurt where he'd been banging it. "Nothing. I have to go back and design different experiments."
哈利的头抵在砖墙上。额头被撞过的地方开始疼了。「没什么。我得回去重新设计几套不同的实验。」
Over the last month, Harry had carefully worked out, in advance, a course of experimentation for them that would have lasted until December.
过去这一个月里，哈利早就仔细地预先排好了一整套实验，够他们一直做到十二月。
It would have been a great set of experiments if the very first test had not falsified the basic premise.
要不是第一个测试就证伪了基本前提，这本来会是一套很棒的实验。
Harry could not believe he had been this dumb.
哈利无法相信自己居然蠢到这个地步。
"Let me correct myself," said Harry. "I need to design one new experiment. I'll let you know when we've got it, and we'll do it, and then I'll design the next one. How does that sound?"
「我纠正一下，」哈利说，「我需要设计一个新实验。等我想出来就告诉你，我们做完它，然后我再排下一个。这样行不行？」
"It sounds like someone wasted a whole lot of effort."
「听上去像是某人白费了一大把力气。」
Thud. Ow. He'd done that a bit harder than he'd planned.
*咚。*哎哟。这一下比他打算的撞得重了些。
"So," said Hermione. She was leaning back in her chair and the smug look was back on her face. "What did we discover today?"
「那么，」赫敏说。她往椅背上一靠，那副自鸣得意的神色又浮到了脸上。「我们今天发现了什么呢？」
"I discovered," said Harry through gritted teeth, "that when it comes to doing truly basic research on a genuinely confusing problem where you have no clue what's going on, my books on scientific methodology aren't worth crap -"
「我发现的，」哈利咬着牙说，「是这么一回事：当你要对一个真正让人摸不着头脑的问题做真正基础的研究，而你又完全不知道眼前是什么情况的时候，我那些讲科学方法论的书连个屁都不值——」
"Language, Mr. Potter! Some of us are innocent young girls!"
「注意措辞，波特先生！在座可还有天真无邪的小姑娘！」
"Fine. But if my books were worth a carp, that's a kind of fish not anything bad, they would have given me the following important piece of advice: When there's a confusing problem and you're just starting out and you have a falsifiable hypothesis, go test it. Find some simple, easy way of doing a basic check and do it right away. Don't worry about designing an elaborate course of experiments that would make a grant proposal look impressive to a funding agency. Just check as fast as possible whether your ideas are false before you start investing huge amounts of effort in them. How does that sound for a moral?"
「行。可我的书要是能值一条鲤鱼——那是一种鱼，不是什么骂人的话——那它们就该给我这么一条要紧的建议：当你碰上一个让你摸不着头脑的问题，你才刚起步，手上又有一个可以证伪的假设，那就去测它。找一种简单省事的办法，做个最基本的检验，马上动手。别费心思去设计一整套精巧的实验方案，那种东西写在经费申请书里能让资助机构很买账。趁你还没往里面投大量精力，先尽快弄清自己的想法到底错没错。这条教训听着怎么样？」
"Mmm... okay," said Hermione. "But I was also hoping for something like 'Hermione's books aren't worthless. They're written by wise old wizards who know way more about magic than I do. I should pay attention to what Hermione's books say.' Can we have that moral too?"
「唔……好吧，」赫敏说，「不过我原本还指望听到点别的，比如『赫敏的书不是没有价值的。那是见识过人的老巫师写的，他们懂的魔法比我多得多。我该重视赫敏的书里写的东西。』这条教训也能加上吗？」
Harry's jaw seemed to be clenched too tightly to let any words out, so he just nodded.
哈利把牙关咬得死紧，一个字也挤不出来，只能点点头。
"Great!" Hermione said. "I liked this experiment. We learned a lot from it and it only took me an hour or so."
「太好了！」赫敏说，「这个实验我挺喜欢。我们从里面学到不少东西，而我只花了大约一个小时。」
"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!"
「啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊！」
In the dungeons of Slytherin.
斯莱特林的地下城。
An unused classroom lit with eerie green light, much brighter this time and coming from a small crystal globe with a temporary enchantment, but eerie green light nonetheless, casting strange shadows from the dusty desks.
一间废弃不用的教室，笼罩在阴森的绿光里。这一次的光要亮得多，来自一个小水晶球，球上施了一道临时的魔法；可那依旧是阴森的绿光，把课桌上厚厚的灰尘照出怪异的影子。
Two boy-sized figures in cowled grey cloaks (no masks) had entered in silence, and sat down in two chairs opposite the same desk.
两个男孩身材的身影裹着带兜帽的灰色斗篷（没戴面具），悄没声地走了进来，在同一张桌子对面的两把椅子上坐下。
It was the second meeting of the Bayesian Conspiracy.
这是贝叶斯阴谋的第二次碰头。
Draco Malfoy hadn't been sure if he should look forward to it or not.
德拉科·马尔福拿不准自己该不该盼着这次碰头。
Harry Potter, judging by the expression on his face, didn't seem to have any doubts on the appropriate mood.
看哈利·波特脸上的表情，他对自己该摆出什么心情毫无疑问。
Harry Potter looked like he was ready to kill someone.
哈利·波特看上去随时准备杀人。
"Hermione Granger," said Harry Potter, just as Draco was opening his mouth. "Don't ask."
德拉科刚要开口，哈利·波特就抢先说了：「赫敏·格兰杰。别问。」
He couldn't have gone on another date, could he? thought Draco, but that didn't make any sense.
*他总不会又跑去约会了吧？*德拉科想，可这怎么也说不通。
"Harry," said Draco, "I'm sorry but I have to ask this anyway, did you really order the mudblood girl an expensive mokeskin pouch for her birthday?"
「哈利，」德拉科说，「抱歉，可我还是要问一句：你真的给那个泥巴种女孩订了一只贵得要命的莫克皮袋当生日礼物？」
"Yes, I did. You've already worked out why, of course."
「对，是我订的。原因你当然早就算出来了。」
Draco reached up and raked fingers through his hair in frustration, his cowl brushing the back of his hand. He hadn't been quite sure why, but now he couldn't say so. And Slytherin knew he was courting Harry Potter, he'd made it obvious enough in Defense class. "Harry," said Draco, "people know I'm friends with you, they don't know about the Conspiracy of course, but they know we're friends, and it makes me look bad when you do that sort of thing."
德拉科抬手烦躁地捋了捋头发，兜帽蹭到了手背。他其实不太清楚是为什么，可现在他没法把这话说出口了。再说，斯莱特林都知道他在拉拢哈利·波特——他在黑魔法防御术课上的表现已经够露骨了。「哈利，」德拉科说，「人人都知道我跟你是朋友——阴谋的事他们当然不知道，可他们知道咱俩是朋友。你干那种事，弄得我很难看。」
Harry Potter's face tightened. "Anyone in Slytherin who can't understand the concept of acting nice toward people you don't actually like should be ground up and fed to pet snakes."
哈利·波特的表情绷紧了。「斯莱特林里谁搞不懂『对你不喜欢的人装出好意』是怎么回事，就该被碾成肉末去喂宠物蛇。」
"There are a lot of people in Slytherin who don't," Draco said, his voice serious. "Most people are stupid, and you have to look good in front of them anyway." Harry Potter had to understand that if he ever wanted to get anywhere in life.
「斯莱特林里不懂的人多得是，」德拉科说，语气认真。「大多数人都很蠢，可你还是得在他们面前保住形象。」哈利·波特要是想这辈子有点出息，就必须明白这一点。
"What do you care what other people think? Are you really going to live your life needing to explain everything you do to the dumbest idiots in Slytherin, letting them judge you? I'm sorry, Draco, but I'm not lowering my cunning plots to the level of what the dumbest Slytherins can understand, just because it might make you look bad otherwise. Not even your friendship is worth that. It would take all the fun out of life. Tell me you haven't ever thought the same thing when someone in Slytherin is being too stupid to breathe, that it's beneath the dignity of a Malfoy to have to pander to them."
「别人怎么想，关你什么事？难道你真要这样过一辈子——每做一件事都得向斯莱特林最笨的白痴解释一遍，再让他们来评判你？德拉科，抱歉，可我绝不会为了让你脸上好看，就把我这些机巧的算计压到连斯莱特林最蠢的家伙也看得懂的份上。就算是你这份交情，也不值这个价。那样活着，还有什么劲。你说说，斯莱特林里有人蠢到连气都喘不匀的时候，你自己就从没想过，让马尔福家的人去迎合那种货色，太掉身价了吗？」
Draco genuinely hadn't. Ever. Pandering to idiots was like breathing, you did it without thinking about it.
德拉科是真的从没这么想过。从来没有。迎合白痴就像呼吸一样，做的时候根本不用过脑子。
"Harry," Draco said at last. "Just doing whatever you want, without worrying about how it looks, isn't smart. The Dark Lord worried about how he looked! He was feared and hated, and he knew exactly what sort of fear and hate he wanted to create. Everyone has to worry about what other people think."
「哈利，」德拉科终于开口，「想干什么就干什么，不管别人怎么看，这不明智。黑魔王就在意自己看起来是什么样！人人怕他、恨他，而他要造出的是哪一种恐惧和憎恨，他心里一清二楚。谁都得顾及别人的看法。」
The cowled figure shrugged. "Perhaps. Remind me sometime to tell you about something called Asch's Conformity Experiment, you might find it quite amusing. For now I'll just note that it's dangerous to worry about what other people think on instinct, because you actually care, not as a matter of cold-blooded calculation. Remember, I was beaten and bullied by older Slytherins for fifteen minutes, and afterward I stood up and graciously forgave them. Just like the good and virtuous Boy-Who-Lived ought to do. But my cold-blooded calculations, Draco, tell me that I have no use for the dumbest idiots in Slytherin, since I don't own a pet snake. So I have no reason to care what they think about how I conduct my duel with Hermione Granger."
戴兜帽的身影耸了耸肩。「也许吧。哪天提醒我跟你讲讲一个叫阿希从众实验的东西，你大概会觉得挺有意思。眼下我只说一点：单凭本能去害怕别人怎么看，是件危险的事，因为那说明你真的在意，而不是在做冷血的计算。别忘了，我被高年级的斯莱特林又打又欺负了整整十五分钟，事后我站起来，宽宏大量地原谅了他们——善良又高尚的大难不死的男孩，就该这么做。可是德拉科，我冷血的计算告诉我：斯莱特林里最蠢的那帮白痴对我毫无用处，因为我并没有养宠物蛇。所以，他们觉得我该怎么跟赫敏·格兰杰打那场决斗，我没理由在意。」
Draco did not clench his fists in frustration. "She's just some mudblood," Draco said, keeping his voice calm, rather than shouting. "If you don't like her, push her down the stairs."
德拉科没有气得攥紧拳头。「她不过是个泥巴种，」德拉科说，把声音放平，没有喊出来。「既然你不喜欢她，那就把她从楼梯上推下去。」
"Ravenclaw would know -"
「拉文克劳的人会知道——」哈利说。
"Have Pansy Parkinson push her down the stairs! You wouldn't even have to manipulate her, offer her a Sickle and she'd do it!"
「让潘西·帕金森把她推下楼梯！」德拉科说，「你连操纵她都不用——给她一个西可，她就肯干！」
"I would know! Hermione beat me in a book-reading contest, she's getting better grades than me, I have to defeat her with my brain or it doesn't count!"
「我会知道！」哈利说，「赫敏在读书比赛里赢过我，成绩也压着我，我得用脑子把她打败，不然赢了也不算数！」
"She's just a mudblood! Why do you respect her that much? "
「她不过是个泥巴种！你凭什么那么看重她？」德拉科说。
"She's a power among Ravenclaws! Why do you care what some powerless idiot in Slytherin thinks? "
「她在拉文克劳是一股力量！斯莱特林里那些没权没势的蠢货怎么想，碍着你什么了？」哈利·波特说。
"It's called politics! And if you can't play it you can't have power! "
「这叫政治！你要是玩不转，就攥不到力量！」德拉科说。
"Walking on the moon is power! Being a great wizard is power! There are kinds of power that don't require me to spend the rest of my life pandering to morons! "
「在月亮上行走是力量！做一个伟大的巫师是力量！有些力量，用不着我拿余生去讨好一群蠢货！」哈利·波特说。
Both of them stopped, and, in almost perfect unison, began taking deep breaths to calm themselves.
两个人同时停了下来，几乎同步地开始深呼吸，想让自己冷静下来。
"Sorry," Harry Potter said after a few moments, wiping sweat from his forehead. "Sorry, Draco. You've got a lot of political power and it makes sense for you to keep it. You should be calculating what Slytherin thinks. It's an important game and I shouldn't have insulted it. But you can't ask me to lower the level of my game in Ravenclaw, just so that you don't look bad by associating with me. Tell Slytherin you're gritting your teeth while you pretend to be my friend."
「对不起，」哈利·波特过了几秒才说出话，一边擦掉前额的汗，「对不起，德拉科。你手上有很多政治力量，保住它是合理的。你应该去算斯莱特林会怎么想。这场游戏很重要，我不该贬低它。但你不能要求我在拉文克劳的那一局里自降水准，只为了让你不至于因为跟我来往而脸上难看。你去告诉斯莱特林，就说你装作是我朋友的时候，其实一直咬着牙。」
That was exactly what Draco had told Slytherin, and he still wasn't sure whether it was true.
这话德拉科确实对斯莱特林说过，而他自己到现在也不确定那是真是假。
"Anyway," Draco said. "Speaking of your image. I'm afraid I've got some bad news. Rita Skeeter heard some of the stories about you and she's been asking questions."
「总之，」德拉科说，「说到你的形象。恐怕我有些坏消息。丽塔·斯基特听到了几个关于你的传闻，她已经在到处打听了。」
Harry Potter raised his eyebrows. "Who?"
哈利·波特挑了挑眉毛。「谁？」
"She writes for the Daily Prophet," Draco said. He tried to keep the worry out of his voice. The Daily Prophet was one of Father's primary tools, he used it like a wizard's wand. "That's the newspaper people actually pay attention to. Rita Skeeter writes about celebrities, and as she puts it, uses her quill to puncture their over-inflated reputations. If she can't find any rumors about you, she'll just make up her own."
「她给《预言家日报》写稿，」德拉科说。他努力不让担忧透进声音里。《预言家日报》是父亲手里的主要工具之一，他使起来就像巫师用魔杖。「那才是人们真会去看的报纸。丽塔·斯基特专写名人，按她自己的说法，是用羽毛笔戳破他们那些吹得过胀的名声。要是她找不到任何关于你的谣言，她就自己编一条出来。」
"I see," said Harry Potter. His green-lit face looked very thoughtful beneath the cowl.
「原来如此，」哈利·波特说。他那张映着绿光的脸藏在兜帽下面，显得若有所思。
Draco hesitated before saying what he had to say next. By now someone had certainly reported to Father that he was courting Harry Potter, and Father would also know that Draco hadn't written home about it, and Father would understand that Draco didn't think he could actually keep it a secret, which sent a clear message that Draco was practicing his own game now but still on Father's side, since if Draco had been tempted away, he would have been sending false reports.
说出下面这句话之前，德拉科犹豫了一下。到现在，肯定已经有人向父亲报告过，他在向哈利·波特示好；父亲也会知道，德拉科写信回家时对此只字未提；父亲还会明白，德拉科并不觉得自己真能瞒住这件事。这就传出了一个清楚的信号：德拉科如今在玩自己的游戏了，但人还站在父亲这边——因为假如德拉科已经被人拉了过去，他送回家的就会是假情报。
It followed that Father had probably anticipated what Draco was about to say next.
由此推下去，父亲大概早已料到德拉科接下来要说什么。
Playing the game with Father for real was a rather unnerving sensation. Even if they were on the same side. It was, on the one hand, exhiliarating, but Draco also knew that in the end it would turn out that Father had played the game better. There was no other way it could possibly go.
真刀真枪地跟父亲玩这场游戏，是一种相当让人心里发毛的感觉。即便双方站在同一边。一方面这让他兴奋，另一方面德拉科也清楚，到最后玩得更好的那个总归是父亲。不可能有别的结局。
"Harry," Draco finally said. "This isn't a suggestion. This isn't my advice. Just the way it is. My father could almost certainly quash that article. But it would cost you."
「哈利，」德拉科终于开口，「这不是我的建议，也不是我的忠告。事情就是这样。我父亲几乎肯定能压下那篇报道。但那要你付出代价。」
That Father had been expecting Draco to tell Harry Potter exactly that was not something Draco said out loud. Harry Potter would work it out on his own, or not.
父亲本来就在等着德拉科对哈利·波特说出这几句话——这件事德拉科没有说出口。哈利·波特要么自己想明白，要么就想不明白。
But instead Harry Potter shook his head, smiling beneath the cowl. "I have no intention of trying to quash Rita Skeeter."
可哈利·波特只是摇了摇头，在兜帽底下笑了笑。「我没打算去压下丽塔·斯基特。」
Draco didn't even try to keep the incredulity out of his voice. "You can't tell me you don't care what the newspaper says about you!"
德拉科这次一点都没打算掩饰语气里的难以置信。「你不可能跟我说，你不在乎报纸怎么写你！」
"I care less than you might think," said Harry Potter. "But I have my own ways of dealing with the likes of Skeeter. I don't need Lucius's help."
「我在意的程度比你想的要低，」哈利·波特说，「不过，对付斯基特这类人，我有我自己的办法。我不需要卢修斯来帮忙。」
A worried look came over Draco's face before he could stop it. Whatever Harry Potter was about to do next, it would be something Father wasn't expecting, and Draco was feeling very nervous about where that might lead.
德拉科还没来得及收住，脸上就浮起了担忧的神色。不管哈利·波特下一步要做什么，那都会是父亲没有料到的事；德拉科一想到事情会走到哪里去，心里就非常紧张。
Draco also realized that his hair was getting sweaty underneath the cowl. He'd never actually worn one of those before, and hadn't realized that the Death Eaters' cloaks probably had things like Cooling Charms.
德拉科还发现，自己的头发在兜帽下面开始汗湿了。他以前其实从没戴过兜帽，也没想到食死徒的斗篷上大概都带着降温咒之类的东西。
Harry Potter wiped some sweat from his forehead again, grimaced, took out his wand, pointed it upward, took a deep breath, and said "Frigideiro! "
哈利·波特又擦了擦前额上的汗，咧了下嘴，掏出魔杖，朝上方一指，深吸一口气，说道：「Frigideiro！」
Moments later Draco felt the cold draft.
片刻之后，德拉科就感到了一股冷风。
"Frigideiro! Frigideiro! Frigideiro! Frigideiro! Frigideiro! "
「Frigideiro！Frigideiro！Frigideiro！Frigideiro！Frigideiro！」
Then Harry Potter lowered the wand, though his hand seemed a bit shaky, and put it back into his robes.
然后哈利·波特放下魔杖，把它收回了袍子里——他的手看上去有点发抖。
The whole room seemed perceptibly cooler. Draco could have done that too, but still, not bad.
整间屋子明显凉了下来。这一点德拉科本来也做得到，不过话说回来，干得不赖。
"So," Draco said. "Science. You're going to tell me about blood."
「那么，」德拉科说，「科学。现在你要跟我讲血统的事了。」
"We're going to find out about blood," Harry Potter said. "By doing experiments."
「我们要弄清血统这回事，」哈利·波特说，「办法是做实验。」
"All right," Draco said. "What sort of experiments?"
「好吧，」德拉科说，「什么样的实验？」
Harry Potter smiled evilly beneath his cowl, and said, "You tell me."
哈利·波特在兜帽底下笑得邪恶，说道：「你来告诉我。」
Draco had heard of something called the Socratic Method, which was teaching by asking questions (named after an ancient philosopher who had been too smart to be a real Muggle and hence had been a disguised pureblood wizard). One of his tutors had used Socratic teaching a lot. It had been annoying but effective.
德拉科听说过一种叫苏格拉底式提问法的东西，就是靠提问来教人（这名字来自一位古代哲学家，他聪明得不像个真正的麻瓜，所以一定是个伪装起来的纯血巫师）。他的一位家庭教师很爱用苏格拉底式提问法。那很烦人，却管用。
Then there was the Potter Method, which was insane.
接着就是波特法——那玩意儿简直疯了。
To be fair, Draco had to admit that Harry Potter had tried the Socratic Method first and it hadn't been working too well.
说句公道话，德拉科不得不承认，哈利·波特一开始试的确实是苏格拉底式提问法，而那法子并不太管用。
Harry Potter had asked how Draco would go about disproving the blood purist hypothesis that wizards couldn't do the neat stuff now that they'd done eight centuries ago because they had interbred with Muggleborns and Squibs.
哈利·波特问过德拉科，他会怎么去证伪血统假说——也就是：巫师如今做不出八个世纪前做得到的那些漂亮玩意儿，是因为他们跟麻瓜出身者和哑炮混了血。
Draco had said that he did not understand how Harry Potter could sit there with a straight face and claim this was not a trap.
德拉科说，他实在想不通，哈利·波特哪来的本事板着脸坐在那儿，硬说这不是个陷阱。
Harry Potter had replied, still with a straight face, that if it was a trap it would have been so pathetically obvious that he ought to be ground up and fed to pet snakes, but it was not a trap, it was simply a rule of how scientists operated that you had to try to disprove your own theories, and if you made an honest effort and failed, that was victory.
哈利·波特照样板着脸回答：如果这是个陷阱，那也拙劣得太明显了，他就该被剁碎了拿去喂宠物蛇；可这不是陷阱，这只是科学家做事的一条规矩——你得想法子证伪自己提出的理论；如果你真心实意地试了，结果失败了，那也算胜利。
Draco had tried to point out the staggering stupidity of this by suggesting that the key to surviving a duel was to cast Avada Kedavra on your own foot and miss.
德拉科为了说明这套说法蠢得离谱，举了个例子：想在决斗中活下来，关键就是对自己的脚施一道 Avada Kedavra，然后打偏。
Harry Potter had nodded.
哈利·波特点了头。
Draco had shaken his head.
德拉科摇了摇头。
Harry Potter had then presented the idea that scientists watched ideas fight to see which ones won, and you couldn't fight without an opponent, so Draco needed to figure out opponents for the blood purist hypothesis to fight so that blood purism could win, which Draco understood a little better even though Harry Potter had said it with a rather distasteful look. Like, it was clear that if blood purism was the way the world really was, then the sky just had to be blue, and if some other theory was true, the sky just had to be green; and nobody had seen the sky yet; and then you went outside and looked and the blood purists won; and after this had happened six times in a row, people would start noticing the trend.
接着哈利·波特讲了个想法：科学家会看着不同的想法互相打斗，看哪一边能赢；而没有对手就没法打，所以德拉科得给血统假说找出一些对手来，让它跟它们打，好让血统论能赢下几场。这话德拉科稍微多懂了一点，虽然哈利·波特说的时候一脸嫌恶。好比说：如果血统论就是世界本来的样子，那天空本来只能是蓝的；如果另一个理论才是真的，那天空本来只能是绿的；而现在谁也还没见过天空；然后你走到室外看一眼，结果是血统论赢了；这样连着来六次，人们就会开始注意到这个趋势。
Harry Potter had then proceeded to claim that all the opponents Draco was inventing were too weak, so blood purism wouldn't get credit for defeating them because the battle wouldn't be impressive enough. Draco had understood that too. Wizards have gotten weaker because house elves are stealing our magic hadn't sounded impressive to him either.
哈利·波特接着指出，德拉科造出来的那些对手全都太弱，血统论就算打赢了也拿不到分，因为这场打斗不够有看头。这一点德拉科也懂。巫师越来越弱，是因为家养小精灵在偷走我们的魔力——这个说法在他听来同样没什么了不起。
(Though Harry Potter had said that one at least was testable, in that they could try to check if house elves had gotten stronger over time, and even draw a picture representing the increasing strength of house elves and another picture representing the decreasing strength of wizards and if the two pictures matched that would point to the house elves, all said in such completely serious tones that Draco had felt an impulse to ask Dobby a few pointed questions under Veritaserum before snapping out of it.)
（不过哈利·波特确实说过，至少那一条是能检验的：他们可以设法查一查，家养小精灵是不是随着时间推移变强了；甚至可以画一张图，表示家养小精灵的魔力在上升，再画一张图，表示巫师的魔力在下降；要是两张图能对上，那就说明问题出在家养小精灵身上。他说这些话的时候语气认真得不得了，德拉科一时冲动，差点想给多比灌下吐真剂、逼问几个尖锐的问题，好一会儿才回过神来。）
And Harry Potter had finally said that Draco couldn't fix the battle, scientists weren't dumb, it would be obvious if you fixed the battle, it had to be a real fight, between two different theories that might both really be true, with a test that only the true hypothesis would win, something that actually would come out different ways depending on which hypothesis was actually correct, and there would be experienced scientists watching to make sure that was exactly what happened. Harry Potter had claimed that he himself just wanted to know how blood really worked and for that he need to see blood purism really win and Draco wasn't going to fool him with theories that were just there to be knocked down.
最后哈利·波特说，德拉科不能给这场打斗做手脚。科学家不傻，你要是做了手脚，那会明显得藏不住。那必须是一场真正的打斗，发生在两个不同的理论之间，而这两个理论都可能真的成立；还要有一个检验，只有为真的那个假说才能赢——这种检验的结果，真的会随着哪个假说才对而变得不同；此外还得有经验丰富的科学家在旁边看着，确保结果确实如此。哈利·波特说，他自己只想知道血统究竟是怎么运作的，为了这个，他必须看到血统论真正赢一次；德拉科休想拿一些专门造出来等着被打倒的理论来糊弄他。
Even having seen the point, Draco hadn't been able to invent any "plausible alternatives", as Harry Potter put it, to the idea that wizards were getting less powerful because they were mixing their blood with mud. It was too obviously true.
即使看懂了这一点，德拉科也编不出任何哈利·波特所说的「貌似合理的替代说法」，去跟「巫师越来越弱，是因为他们把自己的血跟泥巴掺在了一起」这个念头对打。因为这实在明显得毋庸置疑。
It was then that Harry Potter had said, rather frustrated, that he couldn't imagine Draco was really this bad at considering different viewpoints, surely there'd been Death Eaters who'd posed as enemies of blood purism and had come up with much more plausible-sounding arguments against their own side than Draco was offering. If Draco had been trying to pose as a member of Dumbledore's faction, and come up with the house elf hypothesis, he wouldn't have fooled anyone for a second.
就在这个时候，哈利·波特带着相当的挫败说，他没法相信德拉科在考虑不同观点这方面真有这么差；肯定有食死徒装成血统论的敌人，拿出过一些针对自家阵营的论调，听起来比德拉科现在说的合理得多。要是德拉科想假扮邓布利多一派的人，再抛出这个家养小精灵的假说，他一秒钟都骗不过任何人。
Draco had been forced to admit this was a point.
德拉科只好承认，哈利这一条说得没错。
Hence the Potter Method.
于是就有了波特法。
"Please, Dr. Malfoy," whined Harry Potter, "why won't you accept my paper?"
「求您了，马尔福博士，」哈利·波特哀声说，「您为什么不接受我的论文？」
Harry Potter had needed to repeat the phrase "just pretend to be pretending to be a scientist" three times before Draco had understood.
哈利·波特把「假装你在假装自己是个科学家」这句话重复了三遍，德拉科才听懂。
In that moment Draco had realized that there was something deeply wrong with Harry Potter's brain, and anyone who tried Legilimency on it would probably never come back out again.
就在那一刻，德拉科意识到，哈利·波特的脑子有个很深的毛病；谁要是对那颗脑子用读心术，多半再也回不来。
Harry Potter had then gone into further and considerable detail: Draco was to pretend to be a Death Eater who was posing as the editor of a scientific journal, Dr. Malfoy, who wanted to reject his enemy Dr. Potter's paper "On the Heritability of Magical Ability", and if the Death Eater didn't act like a real scientist would, he would be revealed as a Death Eater and executed, while Dr. Malfoy was also being watched by his own rivals and needed to appear to reject Dr. Potter's paper for neutral scientific reasons or he would lose his position as journal editor.
随后哈利·波特又讲了一长串细节：德拉科要假装成一个食死徒，这个食死徒正在假扮一家科学期刊的编辑，也就是马尔福博士；马尔福博士想拒掉他的敌人波特博士的论文《论魔法能力的遗传》。如果这个食死徒的举止不像一个真正的科学家，他的食死徒身份就会暴露，然后被处死；与此同时，马尔福博士自己也正被对手们盯着，他必须看上去是出于中立的科学理由才拒掉波特博士的论文，否则就会丢掉期刊编辑的位子。
It was a wonder the Sorting Hat wasn't gibbering madly in St. Mungo's.
分院帽居然没有在圣芒戈医院里疯疯癫癫地胡言乱语，真是奇迹。
It was also the most complicated thing anyone had ever asked Draco to pretend and there was no possible way he could have refused the challenge.
这也是有史以来别人要德拉科假装过的最复杂的一件事，而他绝无可能拒绝这个挑战。
Right now they were, as Harry Potter had put it, getting in the mood.
这会儿，用哈利·波特的话说，他们正在找感觉。
"I'm afraid, Dr. Potter, that you wrote this in the wrong color of ink," Draco said. "Next!"
「恐怕，波特博士，你这篇论文的墨水颜色用错了，」德拉科说，「下一个！」
Dr. Potter's face did an excellent job of crumpling in despair, and Draco couldn't help but feel a flash of Dr. Malfoy's glee, even though the Death Eater was only pretending to be Dr. Malfoy.
波特博士的脸非常到位地垮了下去，满脸绝望；德拉科忍不住感到一丝马尔福博士的得意——尽管那个食死徒只不过在假扮马尔福博士而已。
This part was fun. He could have done this all day long.
这一段好玩。他可以这样玩上一整天。
Dr. Potter got up from the chair, slumped over in dismay, and trudged off, and turned into Harry Potter, who gave Draco a thumbs-up, and then turned back into Dr. Potter again, now approaching with an eager smile.
波特博士从椅子上站起来，垂头丧气地拖着步子走开，变回了哈利·波特；哈利·波特冲德拉科竖了个大拇指，随后又变回波特博士，带着一脸热切的笑容走回来。
Dr. Potter sat down and presented Dr. Malfoy with a piece of parchment on which was written:
波特博士坐下来，把一张羊皮纸递给马尔福博士，纸上写着：
On the Heritability of Magical Ability
《论魔法能力的遗传》
Dr. H. J. Potter-Evans-Verres, Institute for Sufficiently Advanced Science
H·J·波特-伊万斯-维雷斯博士，足够先进科学研究所
My observation:
我的观察：
Today's wizards can't do things as impressive as what wizards used to do 800 years ago.
今天的巫师做不出八百年前的巫师能做出的那么了不起的事。
My conclusion:
我的结论：
Wizardkind has become weaker by mixing their blood with Muggleborns and Squibs.
巫师一族因为与麻瓜出身者和哑炮混血而变弱了。
"Dr. Malfoy," said Dr. Potter with a hopeful look, "I was wondering if the Journal of Irreproducible Results could consider for publication my paper entitled 'On the Heritability of Magical Ability'."
「马尔福博士，」波特博士带着满怀希望的神情说，「不知道*《不可重复结果杂志》*能不能考虑刊登我的论文《论魔法能力的遗传》。」
Draco looked at the parchment, smiling while he considered possible rejections. If he was a professor, he would have refused the essay as too short, so -
德拉科看着那张羊皮纸，一边微笑，一边盘算着各种可能的退稿理由。如果他真是教授，他会以篇幅太短为由把稿子退掉，所以——
"It's too long, Dr. Potter," said Dr. Malfoy.
「太长了，波特博士，」马尔福博士说。
For a moment there was genuine incredulity on Dr. Potter's face.
有一瞬间，波特博士脸上流露出真切的难以置信。
"Ah..." said Dr. Potter. "How about if I get rid of the separate lines for observations and conclusions, and just put in a therefore -"
「啊……」波特博士说，「要不我把『观察』和『结论』那两行去掉，干脆只写一个因此——」
"Then it'll be too short. Next!"
「那就太短了。下一个！」
Dr. Potter trudged off.
波特博士拖着步子走开了。
"All right," said Harry Potter, "you're getting too good at this. Two more times to practice, and then third time is for real, no interruptions between, I'll just come in straight at you and that time you'll reject the paper based on the actual content, remember, your scientific rivals are watching."
「好吧，」哈利·波特说，「你练得太好了。再练两遍，第三遍就来真的，中间不再打断，我直接进来找你，那一次你要根据论文的实际内容退稿，记住，你那些科学界对手都在看着呢。」
Dr. Potter's next paper was perfect in every way, a marvel of its kind, but unfortunately had to be rejected because Dr. Malfoy's journal was having trouble with the letter E. Dr. Potter offered to rewrite it without those words, and Dr. Malfoy explained that it was really more of a vowel problem.
波特博士的下一篇论文各方面都完美无缺，堪称同类中的奇迹，可惜还是不得不被退稿，原因是马尔福博士的期刊跟字母 E 过不去。波特博士提出可以重写一遍，把带 E 的词都换掉，马尔福博士解释说，其实这更像是个元音的问题。
The paper after that was rejected because it was Tuesday.
再下一篇论文被退稿的理由是：那天是星期二。
It was, in fact, Saturday.
而事实上，那天是星期六。
Dr. Potter tried to point this out and was told "Next!"
波特博士试图指出这一点，得到的回答却是「下一个！」
(Draco was starting to understand why Snape had used his hold over Dumbledore just to get a position that let him be awful to students.)
（德拉科渐渐明白，斯内普为什么光为了换一个能让他对学生很坏的职位，就动用了他拿捏邓布利多的那点把柄。）
And then -
然后——
Dr. Potter was approaching with a superior smirk on his face.
波特博士带着一副高人一等的得意笑容走近了。
"This is my latest paper, On the Heritability of Magical Ability," Dr. Potter stated confidently, and thrust out the parchment. "I have decided to allow your journal to publish it, and have prepared it in perfect accordance with your guidelines so that you may publish it quickly."
「这是我最新的论文，《论魔法能力的遗传》，」波特博士自信地宣布，把羊皮纸递了过去，「我决定准许贵刊发表这篇论文，并且已经严格按照贵刊的投稿指南准备妥当，好让你们尽快把它登出来。」
The Death Eater decided to track down and kill Dr. Potter after his mission was done. Dr. Malfoy kept a polite smile on his face, since his rivals were watching, and said...
那个食死徒决定，等任务完成以后就去找到波特博士，把他杀掉。马尔福博士脸上挂着礼貌的微笑，因为他的对手们都在看着，然后他开口说……
(The pause stretched, with Dr. Potter looking at him impatiently.)
（这一停拖得有点久，波特博士不耐烦地看着他。）
..."Let me look at that, please."
……「请让我看一看。」
Dr. Malfoy took the parchment and perused it carefully.
马尔福博士接过羊皮纸，仔细地看了一遍。
The Death Eater was starting to get nervous about the fact that he wasn't a real scientist, and Draco was trying to remember how to talk like Harry Potter.
那个食死徒越来越紧张，因为他毕竟不是真正的科学家；德拉科则在拼命回忆，像哈利·波特那样说话该怎么说。
"You, ah, need to consider other possible explanations for your, um, observation, besides just this one -"
「你，啊，还得考虑考虑别的可能解释，来解释你这个，嗯，观察，不能只提这一种——」
"Really?" interrupted Dr. Potter. "Like what, exactly? House elves are stealing our magic? My data admit of only one possible conclusion, Dr. Malfoy. There are no other plausible hypotheses."
「真的吗？」波特博士打断他说，「比如说？家养小精灵在偷我们的魔法？我的数据只容许一个可能的结论，马尔福博士。其他合理的假说根本不存在。」
Draco was trying furiously to order his brain to think, what would he say if he was posing as a member of Dumbledore's faction, what did they claim was the explanation for wizardkind's decline, Draco had never bothered to actually ask that...
德拉科拼命命令自己的脑子去想：如果他是邓布利多那一派的人，他会怎么说？他们那一派究竟是怎么解释巫师一族衰落的？德拉科以前从没费心真去问过这个问题……
"If you can't think of any other way to explain my data, you'll have to publish my paper, Dr. Malfoy."
「如果你找不出别的办法来解释我的数据，那你就只能刊登我的论文，马尔福博士。」
It was the sneer on Dr. Potter's face that did it.
真正逼出这句反问的，是波特博士脸上那副冷笑。
"Oh yeah?" snapped Dr. Malfoy. "How do you know that magic itself isn't fading away?"
「哦，是吗？」马尔福博士厉声说，「你怎么知道不是魔法本身正在消退？」
Time stopped.
时间停住了。
Draco and Harry Potter exchanged looks of appalled horror.
德拉科和哈利·波特对视一眼，两个人都是一脸惊骇。
Then Harry Potter spat something that was probably an extremely bad word if you'd been raised by Muggles. "I didn't think of that! " said Harry Potter. "And I should have. The magic goes away. Damn, damn, damn! "
接着哈利·波特啐出一个词，如果你是被麻瓜养大的，那大概会听出这是一句极难听的脏话。「我居然没想到这个！」哈利·波特说，「我本该想到的。魔法会消退。该死，该死，该死！」
The alarm in Harry Potter's voice was contagious. Without even thinking about it, Draco's hand went into his robes and clutched at his wand. He'd thought the House of Malfoy was safe, so long as you only married into families that could trace their bloodlines back four generations you were supposed to be safe, it had never occurred to him before that there might be nothing anyone could do to stop the end of magic. "Harry, what do we do?" Draco's voice was rising in panic. "What do we do? "
哈利·波特声音里的惊慌是会传染的。德拉科想都没想，手就伸进袍子里攥住了魔杖。他一直以为马尔福家族是安全的——只要你只跟血统能往上追溯四代的家族联姻，你就应该安全——他以前从没想过，也许谁都没办法阻止魔法的终结。「哈利，我们怎么办？」德拉科的声音一点点拔高，带上了恐慌，「我们该怎么办？」
"Let me think! "
「让我想想！」
After a few moments, Harry grabbed from a nearby desk the same quill and roll of parchment he'd used to write his pretend paper, and started scribbling something.
过了一会儿，哈利从旁边一张桌子上拿过那支羽毛笔和那卷羊皮纸——他写那篇假论文时用的就是这套——开始涂写起来。
"We'll figure it out," Harry said, his voice tight, "if magic is fading out of the world we'll figure out how fast it's fading and how much time we have left to do something, and then we'll figure out why it's fading, and then we'll do something about it. Draco, have wizarding powers been declining at a steady rate, or have there been sudden drops?"
「我们会弄明白的，」哈利说，声音绷得很紧，「如果魔法正从世上消退，我们就去弄明白它在以多快的速度消退、我们还剩多少时间可以做点什么；然后我们会弄明白它为什么会消退，然后我们就动手解决它。德拉科，巫师的力量是一直在匀速下降，还是有过突然的暴跌？」
"I... I don't know..."
「我……我不知道……」
"You told me that no one had matched the four founders of Hogwarts. So it's been going on for at least eight centuries, then? You can't remember hearing anything about the problems suddenly appearing five centuries ago or anything like that?"
「你告诉过我，没有人能跟霍格沃茨的四位创始人相提并论。那也就是说，这件事至少已经持续了八个世纪？你也不记得听说过这些问题是在五个世纪前突然冒出来的，或者其他类似的说法？」
Draco was trying frantically to think. "I always heard that nobody was as good as Merlin and then after that nobody was as good as the Founders of Hogwarts."
德拉科拼命地想。「我一直听人说，谁都比不上梅林；梅林之后，谁都比不上霍格沃茨的四位创始人。」
"All right," Harry said. He was still scribbling. "Because three centuries ago is when Muggles started to not believe in magic, which I thought might have something to do with it. And about a century and a half ago was when Muggles began using a kind of technology that stops working around magic and I was wondering if it might also go the other way around."
「好吧，」哈利说。他还在涂写。「因为三个世纪前，正是麻瓜开始不再相信魔法的时候，我本来觉得这或许跟它有关。而大约一个半世纪前，麻瓜开始使用一种在魔法附近就会失灵的科技，我在想这种关系会不会也反过来成立。」
Draco exploded out of his chair, so angry he could hardly even speak. "It's the Muggles -"
德拉科猛地从椅子上弹起来，气得几乎说不出话。「就是麻瓜——」
"Damn it! " roared Harry. "Weren't you even listening to yourself? It's been going on for eight centuries at least and the Muggles weren't doing anything interesting then! We have to figure out the real truth! The Muggles might have something to do with this but if they don't and you go blaming everything on them and that stops us from figuring out what's really going on then one day you're going to wake up in the morning and find out that your wand is just a stick of wood!"
「该死！」哈利吼道，「你连你自己说的话都不听吗？这件事至少已经持续了八个世纪，那会儿麻瓜根本什么都没在做！我们必须弄清真正的真相！麻瓜也许跟这件事有关，可万一他们没有，而你把一切都怪到他们头上，害我们查不出真正在发生什么，那总有一天，你早上醒来会发现，你的魔杖不过是一根木棍！」
Draco's breath stopped in his throat. His father often said our wands will break in our hands in his speeches but Draco had never really thought before about what that meant, it wasn't going to happen to him after all. And now suddenly it seemed very real. Just a stick of wood. Draco could imagine just what it would be like to take out his wand and try to cast a spell and find that nothing was happening...
德拉科的呼吸在喉咙里停住了。父亲在演讲里常常说到我们的魔杖会在我们手里折断，可德拉科以前从没真正想过这句话意味着什么——毕竟这种事不会落到他头上。而现在它忽然变得无比真实。*不过是一根木棍。*德拉科能想象出那是什么感觉：掏出魔杖，试着施一个咒，结果什么也没有发生……
That could happen to everyone.
这种事有可能落到每个人头上。
There would be no more wizards, no more magic, ever. Just Muggles who had a few legends about what their ancestors had been able to do. Some of the Muggles would be called Malfoy, and that would be all that was left of the name.
不会再有巫师，不会再有魔法，永远不会了。只剩下一群麻瓜，还留着几则关于祖先当年本事的传说。有些麻瓜的姓氏会是马尔福，而这个姓氏能剩下的，也就只有这些了。
For the first time in his life, Draco realized why there were Death Eaters.
有生以来第一次，德拉科弄懂了食死徒这个群体为什么会存在。
He'd always taken for granted that becoming a Death Eater was something you did when you grew up. Now Draco understood, he knew why Father and Father's friends had sworn to give their lives to prevent the nightmare from coming to pass, there were things you couldn't just stand by and watch happen. But what if it was going to happen anyway, what if all the sacrifices, all the friends they'd lost to Dumbledore, the family they'd lost, what if it had all been for nothing...
他一直理所当然地以为，成为食死徒是你长大以后自然会做的事。如今德拉科懂了，他明白父亲和父亲的朋友们为什么会发誓不惜性命，也要阻止这场噩梦成真——有些事你就是没法站在旁边，眼睁睁看着它发生。可万一它还是会发生呢？万一所有的牺牲、所有被邓布利多夺去的朋友、他们失去的亲人，万一这一切全都是白费……
"Magic can't be fading away," Draco said. His voice was breaking. "It wouldn't be fair."
「魔法不可能在消退，」德拉科说。他的声音发颤。「那不公平。」
Harry stopped scribbling and looked up. His face had an angry expression. "Your father never told you that life isn't fair?"
哈利停下笔，抬起头。他一脸怒气。「你父亲从来没跟你说过，生活本来就是不公平的？」
Father had said that every single time Draco used the word. "But, but, it's too awful to believe that -"
每一次德拉科用这个词，父亲都会这么说。「可是，可是，要相信那种事，也太可怕了——」
"Draco, let me introduce you to something I call the Litany of Tarski. It changes every time you use it. On this occasion it runs like so: If magic is fading out of the world, I want to believe that magic is fading out of the world. If magic is not fading out of the world, I want not to believe that magic is fading out of the world. Let me not become attached to beliefs I may not want. If we're living in a world where magic is fading, that's what we have to believe, we have to know what's coming, so we can stop it, or in the very worst case, be prepared to do what we can in the time we have left. Not believing it won't stop it from happening. So the only question we have to ask is whether magic is actually fading, and if that's the world we live in then that's what we want to believe. Litany of Gendlin: What's true is already so, owning up to it doesn't make it worse. Got that, Draco? I'm going to make you memorize it later. It's something you repeat to yourself any time you start wondering if it's a good idea to believe something that isn't actually true. In fact I want you to say it right now. What's true is already so, owning up to it doesn't make it worse. Say it."
「德拉科，让我给你介绍一个东西，我叫它塔尔斯基连祷文。你每用它一次，它就会变一个样子。这一次它是这样的：如果魔法正在从世界上消退，我希望相信魔法正在从世界上消退。如果魔法并没有从世界上消退，我希望不相信魔法正在从世界上消退。愿我不要执着于自己可能并不想要的信念。如果我们正生活在一个魔法在消退的世界里，那就是我们必须相信的事，我们必须知道将要发生什么，这样才能阻止它，或者在最糟的情况下，准备好用剩下的时间尽力而为。不相信它，并不能阻止它发生。所以我们唯一要问的问题，就是魔法究竟是不是在消退；如果我们就生活在这样一个世界里，那这就是我们想要相信的。根德林连祷文：*事实已是如此，承认它并不会使它变得更糟。*听懂了吗，德拉科？以后我会让你把它背下来。每次你开始犯嘀咕、觉得相信一件并不属实的事也许是个好主意时，就把这句话对自己重复一遍。其实我现在就要你说一遍。*事实已是如此，承认它并不会使它变得更糟。*说吧。」
"What's true is already so," repeated Draco, his voice trembling, "owning up to it doesn't make it worse."
「事实已是如此，」德拉科重复了一遍，声音发着抖，「承认它并不会使它变得更糟。」
"If magic is fading, I want to believe that magic is fading. If magic is not fading, I want not to believe that magic is fading. Say it."
哈利说：「如果魔法在消退，我希望相信魔法在消退。如果魔法没有在消退，我希望不相信魔法在消退。说一遍。」
Draco repeated back the words, the sickness churning in his stomach.
德拉科把那几句话重复了一遍，胃里一阵翻搅。
"Good," Harry said, "remember, it might not be happening, and then you won't have to believe it, either. First we just want to know what's actually going on, which world we actually live in." Harry turned back to his work, scribbled some more, and then turned the parchment so Draco could see it. Draco leaned over the desk and Harry brought the green light closer.
「很好，」哈利说，「记住，这件事也许并不在发生，那样的话你也不必去相信它。首先我们只是想知道实际在发生什么，我们实际生活在哪一个世界。」哈利转回去接着干活，又涂写了一阵，然后把羊皮纸转过来给德拉科看。德拉科俯身凑到桌边，哈利把那团绿光移近了些。
Observation:
观察：
Wizardry isn't as powerful now as it was when Hogwarts was founded.
巫术如今已经不像霍格沃茨创立时那样强大了。
Hypotheses:
假说：
1. Magic itself is fading.
2. Wizards are interbreeding with Muggles and Squibs.
3. Knowledge to cast powerful spells is being lost.
4. Wizards are eating the wrong foods as children, or something else besides blood is making them grow up weaker.
5. Muggle technology is interfering with magic. (Since 800 years ago?)
6. Stronger wizards are having fewer children. (Draco = only child? Check if 3 powerful wizards, Quirrell / Dumbledore / Dark Lord, had any children.)
2. Wizards are interbreeding with Muggles and Squibs.
3. Knowledge to cast powerful spells is being lost.
4. Wizards are eating the wrong foods as children, or something else besides blood is making them grow up weaker.
5. Muggle technology is interfering with magic. (Since 800 years ago?)
6. Stronger wizards are having fewer children. (Draco = only child? Check if 3 powerful wizards, Quirrell / Dumbledore / Dark Lord, had any children.)
1. 魔法本身正在消退。
2. 巫师在和麻瓜、哑炮通婚。
3. 施展强大咒语所需的知识正在失传。
4. 巫师小时候吃的东西不对，或者是血统以外的别的原因，让他们长大以后变得更弱。
5. 麻瓜的技术在干扰魔法。（八百年前就开始了？）
6. 强大的巫师生的孩子更少。（德拉科算独子？查一下奇洛、邓布利多、黑魔王这三个强大的巫师有没有孩子。）
2. 巫师在和麻瓜、哑炮通婚。
3. 施展强大咒语所需的知识正在失传。
4. 巫师小时候吃的东西不对，或者是血统以外的别的原因，让他们长大以后变得更弱。
5. 麻瓜的技术在干扰魔法。（八百年前就开始了？）
6. 强大的巫师生的孩子更少。（德拉科算独子？查一下奇洛、邓布利多、黑魔王这三个强大的巫师有没有孩子。）
Tests:
测试：
"All right," Harry said. His breathing sounded a little calmer. "Now when you're dealing with a confusing problem and you have no idea what's going on, the smart thing to do is figure out some really simple tests, things you can look at right away. We need fast tests that distinguish between these hypotheses. Observations that would come out a different way for at least one of them compared to all the other ones."
「好吧，」哈利说。他的呼吸听起来平静了一些。「当你碰到一个让人糊涂的问题、完全摸不着头脑的时候，聪明的办法是设计几个真正简单的测试——一些马上就能看的东西。我们需要能迅速区分这些假说的测试：至少对其中某一个假说来说，观察到的结果会和其余所有假说都不一样。」
Draco stared at the list in shock. He was suddenly realizing that he knew an awful lot of purebloods who were only children. Himself, Vincent, Gregory, practically everyone. The two most powerful wizards everyone talked about were Dumbledore and the Dark Lord and neither had any children just like Harry had suspected...
德拉科震惊地盯着这张清单。他猛地意识到，自己认识的纯血统里有多少是独生子女。他自己、文森特、格雷戈里，差不多人人都是独生子女。大家谈得最多的那两位最强大的巫师——邓布利多和黑魔王——恰好都没有孩子，正像哈利先前猜到的那样……
"It's going to be really hard to distinguish between 2 and 6," Harry said, "it's in the blood either way, you'd have to try and track the decline of wizardry and compare that to how many kids different wizards were having and measure the abilities of Muggleborns compared to purebloods..." Harry's fingers were tapping nervously on the desk. "Let's just lump 6 in with 2 and call them the blood hypothesis for now. 4 is unlikely because then everyone would notice a sudden drop when the wizards switched to new foods, it's hard to see what would've changed steadily over 800 years. 5 is unlikely for the same reason, no sudden drop, Muggles weren't doing anything 800 years back. 4 looks like 2 and 5 looks like 1 anyway. So mainly we should be trying to distinguish between 1, 2, and 3." Harry turned the parchment to himself, drew an ellipse around those three numbers, turned it back. "Magic is fading, blood is weakening, knowledge is disappearing. What test comes out differently depending on which of those is true? What could we see that would mean any one of these was false?"
「要把 2 和 6 区分开非常难，」哈利说，「两条归根到底都是血统的问题。你得设法把巫术衰退的过程记录下来，再跟不同巫师各自生养了多少孩子作比较，还要测量麻瓜出身者的能力，拿出来跟纯血统比……」哈利用手指紧张地敲着桌面。「我们先把 6 并进 2，暂时统称血统假说。4 不太可能：如果真是那样，巫师一旦改吃别的东西，大家都会注意到一次突然的下跌，而很难想象有什么东西能在八百年里平稳地变化。5 同样不太可能，理由一样：没有突然的下跌，八百年前的麻瓜什么也没做。再说，4 本来就长得像 2，5 也像 1。所以最主要的，是要把 1、2、3 区分开。」哈利把羊皮纸转到自己面前，在这三个数字外围画了一个椭圆，又转了回去。「魔法正在消退，血统越来越弱，知识正在失传。什么样的测试，会因为这三条当中哪一条为真而给出不一样的答案？我们要看到什么，才能说明它们当中有哪一条是假的？」
"I don't know!" blurted Draco. "Why are you asking me? You're the scientist!"
「我不知道！」德拉科脱口而出。「你为什么要问我？你才是科学家啊！」
"Draco," Harry said, a note of pleading desperation in his voice, "I only know what Muggle scientists know! You grew up in the wizarding world, I didn't! You know more magic than I do and you know more about magic than I do and you thought of this whole idea in the first place, so start thinking like a scientist and solve this!"
「德拉科，」哈利说，声音里带着一种哀求般的绝望，「我只懂麻瓜科学家懂的那些！你是在巫师世界长大的，我不是！你比我更懂魔法，你对魔法的了解也比我深，而且整个主意本来就是你想出来的——所以，从现在起像科学家那样思考，把这件事解决掉！」
Draco swallowed hard and stared at the paper.
德拉科用力咽了一下，盯着那张纸。
Magic is fading... wizards are interbreeding with Muggles... knowledge is being lost...
魔法正在消退……巫师在和麻瓜通婚……知识正在失传……
"What does the world look like if magic is fading?" said Harry Potter. "You know more about magic, you should be the one guessing not me! Imagine you're telling a story about it, what happens in the story?"
「如果魔法正在消退，这个世界会是什么样子？」哈利·波特说。「你对魔法懂得比我多，该猜的人是你，不是我！想象你正在讲一个关于它的故事，故事里会发生什么？」
Draco imagined it. "Charms that used to work stop working." Wizards wake up and find that their wands are sticks of wood...
德拉科想象了那幅景象。「以前灵验的咒语不灵了。」巫师们一觉醒来，发现自己的魔杖不过是根木棍……
"What does the world look like if the wizarding blood gets weaker?"
「如果巫师的血统越来越弱，这个世界会是什么样子？」哈利又问。
"People can't do things their ancestors could do."
「人们做不到祖先做得到的事。」德拉科说。
"What does the world look like if knowledge is being lost?"
「如果知识正在失传，这个世界会是什么样子？」哈利接着问。
"People don't know how to cast the Charms in the first place..." said Draco. He stopped, surprised at himself. "That's a test, isn't it?"
「人们压根不知道这些咒语该怎么施展……」德拉科说。他停住了，对自己都有点意外。「这也算一个测试，对吧？」
Harry nodded decisively. "That's one." He wrote it down on the parchment under Tests:
哈利断然点了点头。「这算一个。」他把这一条写在羊皮纸上，写在*测试：*那一行下面。
A. Are there spells we know but can't cast (1 or 2) or are the lost spells no longer known (3)?
A. 是我们知道某些咒语却施展不出来（1 或 2），还是说那些失传的咒语已经没人知道了（3）？
"So that distinguishes between 1 and 2 on the one hand, and 3 on the other hand," said Harry. "Now we need some way to distinguish between 1 and 2. Magic fading, blood weakening, how could we tell the difference?"
「所以这个测试把 1 和 2 分在一边，把 3 分在另一边，」哈利说。「现在还得琢磨出个办法，把 1 和 2 也分开。魔法在消退，血统在变弱——这两样怎么才能分辨出来？」
"What kind of Charms did students used to cast in their first year at Hogwarts?" said Draco. "If they used to be able to cast much more powerful Charms, the blood was stronger -"
「霍格沃茨的学生以前在一年级会施展什么样的咒语？」德拉科说。「如果他们从前能施展威力大得多的咒语，那就说明当时的血统更强——」
Harry Potter shook his head. "Or magic itself was stronger. We have to figure out some way of telling the difference." Harry stood up from his chair, began pacing nervously through the classroom. "No, wait, that might still work. Suppose different spells use up different amounts of magical energy. Then if the ambient magic weakened, the powerful spells would die first, but the spells everyone learns in their first year would stay the same..." Harry's nervous pacing sped up. "It's not a very good test, it's more about powerful wizardry being lost versus all wizardry being lost, someone's blood could be too weak for powerful wizardry but strong enough for easy spells... Draco, do you know if more powerful wizards within a single era, like powerful wizards from just this century, are more powerful as children? If the Dark Lord had cast the Cooling Charm when he was eleven, could he have frozen the whole room?"
哈利·波特摇了摇头。「或者是魔法本身更强。我们得想办法把这两者的区别找出来。」哈利从椅子上站起来，开始在教室里心神不宁地来回踱步。「不，等等，刚才那个测试或许还是能用。假设不同的咒语消耗的魔法能量多少不一样。那么如果周围环境里的魔法变弱了，威力大的咒语会最先失效，可是所有人一年级都要学的那些咒语还是照旧……」哈利越走越快。「这算不上一个好的测试，它更像是在分辨是强大的巫术在失传，还是所有巫术都在失传——有的人血统可能弱到学不会强大的巫术，却还够施展简单的咒语……德拉科，你知不知道这么一件事：同一个时代里的人，比如说就是本世纪这些强大的巫师，他们小时候是不是也比别的孩子更强？如果黑魔王十一岁的时候施展降温咒，他能不能把整个房间冻住？」
Draco's face screwed up as he tried to recollect. "I can't remember hearing anything about the Dark Lord but I think Dumbledore's supposed to have done something amazing on his Transfiguration O.W.L.s in fifth year... I think other powerful wizards were good in Hogwarts too..."
德拉科皱着眉，努力回想。「关于黑魔王，我不记得听说过什么，不过邓布利多据说在五年级的变形术普通巫师等级考试上做过一件很了不起的事……我想别的强大巫师在霍格沃茨时成绩也很好……」
Harry scowled, still pacing. "They could just be studying hard. Still, if first-year students learned the same spells and seemed about as powerful then as now, we could call that weak evidence favoring 1 over 2... wait, hold on." Harry stopped where he stood. "I have another test that might distinguish between 1 and 2. It would take a while to explain, it uses some things that scientists know about blood and inheritance, but it's an easy question to ask. And if we combine my test and your test and they both come out the same way, that's a strong hint at the answer." Harry almost ran back to the desk, took the parchment and wrote:
哈利皱起眉头，还在踱步。「他们也可能只是功课用功。不过，如果一年级学生学的咒语一样，那时候的威力也跟现在差不多，那可以算作支持 1 而不是 2 的薄弱证据……等等，先停一下。」哈利站在原地停住了。「我又想到一个测试，也许能把 1 和 2 分开。解释起来要花些时间，因为它用到了科学家们关于血统和遗传的一些发现，不过问题问起来很简单。而且，如果把我的测试和你的测试合起来看，两个结果都指向同一个方向，那就是答案的一条有力线索。」哈利几乎一路小跑回桌前，拿起羊皮纸，写道：
B. Did ancient first-year students cast the same sort of spells, with the same power, as now? (Weak evidence for 1 over 2, but blood could also be losing powerful wizardry only.)
B. 古代的一年级学生施展的咒语，种类和威力都跟现在一样吗？（这是支持 1 而不是 2 的薄弱证据，不过也有可能只是血统在强大的巫术这一头变弱了。）
C. Additional test that distinguishes 1 and 2 using scientific knowledge of blood, will explain later.
C. 还有一个测试，用科学上关于血统的知识来区分 1 和 2，以后再解释。
"Okay," said Harry, "we can at least try to tell the difference between 1 and 2 and 3, so let's go with this right away, we can figure out more tests after we do the ones we already have. Now it's going to look a little odd if Draco Malfoy and Harry Potter go around asking questions together, so here's my idea. You'll go through Hogwarts and find old portraits and ask them about what spells they learned to cast during their first years. They're portraits so they won't know there's anything odd about Draco Malfoy doing that. I'll ask recent portraits and living people about spells we know but can't cast, no one will notice anything unusual if Harry Potter asks weird questions. And I'll have to do complicated research about forgotten spells, so I want you to be the one to gather the data I need for my own scientific question. It's a simple question and you should be able to find the answer by asking portraits. You might want to write this down, ready?"
「好，」哈利说，「我们至少可以试着把 1、2、3 分辨出来，所以这件事马上就开始做；更多的测试，可以等手上这几个做完再想。可是，要是哈利·波特和德拉科·马尔福结伴去问东问西，看上去会有点奇怪，所以我是这么打算的：你在霍格沃茨转一圈，找那些古老的画像，问他们一年级时学过施展哪些咒语。他们是画像，不会觉得德拉科·马尔福这么做有什么不对劲。我去问近代的画像和活人，问那些我们知道却施展不出来的咒语——哈利·波特问些古怪的问题，也没人会觉得有什么反常。另外，我还得对失传的咒语做一番复杂的查证，所以我想让你去替我把数据收集起来，那是我自己那个科学问题要用的。问题很简单，你去问画像就应该能问出答案。你最好拿笔记一下——准备好了吗？」
Draco sat down again and scrabbled in his bookbag for parchment and quill. When it was laid down on the desk, Draco looked up, face determined. "Go ahead."
德拉科重新坐下，在书包里翻找羊皮纸和羽毛笔。等纸笔在桌上摆好，德拉科抬起头，一脸决然。「说吧。」
"Find portraits who knew a married Squib couple - don't make that face, Draco, it's important information. Just ask recent portraits who are Gryffindors or something. Find portraits who knew a married Squib couple well enough to know the names of all their children. Write down the name of each child and whether that child was a wizard, a Squib, or a Muggle. If they don't know whether the child was a Squib or a Muggle, write down 'non-wizard'. Write that down for every child the couple had, don't leave any out. If the portrait only knows the name of the wizarding children, not the names of all the children, then don't write down any data from that couple. It's very important that you only bring me data from someone who knows all the children a Squib couple had, well enough to know them all by name. Try to get at least forty names total, if you can, and if you have time for more, even better. Have you got all that?"
「去找那种认识一对哑炮夫妇的画像——别做那个表情，德拉科，这是关键信息。你去问近代的画像就行，格兰芬多的那类。要找的画像得跟一对哑炮夫妇相熟，熟到能说出他们每个孩子的名字。把每个孩子的名字记下来，还要注明这孩子是巫师、哑炮、麻瓜里的哪一种。要是画像说不准那孩子算哑炮还是算麻瓜，就写『非巫师』。这对夫妇的每一个孩子都要记，一个都不能漏。如果画像只知道巫师孩子的名字，不知道所有孩子的名字，那这对夫妇的数据你就一个都不要写。这一点非常重要：你拿给我的数据，必须来自认识那对哑炮夫妇所有孩子的人，而且熟到能把每个名字都报出来。要是可以，总共至少凑到四十个名字；时间富余的话，越多越好。都记住了吗？」
"Repeat it," Draco said, when he was done writing, and Harry repeated it.
「你重复一遍，」德拉科写完后说，哈利便重复了一遍。
"I've got it," Draco said, "but why -"
「我记下了，」德拉科说，「可是为什么——」
"It has to do with one of the secrets of blood that scientists already discovered. I'll explain when you get back. Let's split up and meet back here in an hour, 6:22pm that should be. Are we ready to go?"
哈利说：「这牵涉到科学家早就发现的一个关于血统的秘密。等你回来我再跟你讲。我们分头行动，一个小时后回这里碰头——那应该是傍晚六点二十二分。可以出发了吗？」
Draco nodded decisively. It was all very rushed, but he'd long since been taught how to rush.
德拉科用力点了一下头。这一切都仓促得厉害，不过他早就被人教过怎么赶时间。
"Then go! " said Harry Potter and yanked off his cowled cloak and shoved it into his pouch, which began eating it, and, without even waiting for his pouch to finish, spun around and began striding rapidly toward the classroom door, bumping into a desk and almost falling over in his haste.
「那就快去！」哈利·波特说着，一把扯下带兜帽的斗篷塞进莫克皮袋。袋子开始吃了起来；他没等袋子吃完，就转过身，大步流星地朝教室门口走去，匆忙中撞上一张桌子，差点摔倒。
By the time Draco had managed to get his own cloak off and stow it in his bookbag, Harry Potter was gone.
等德拉科好不容易脱下自己的斗篷、收进书包，哈利·波特早就不见了。
Draco almost ran out the door.
德拉科几乎是跑着冲出了门。
梗与典故
- 「N 射线」这件事真的发生过：1903 年，法国南锡大学的物理教授普罗斯佩·勒内·布朗洛在试图让 X 射线偏振时，宣称看到了一种新的辐射，取名 N 射线（N 取自南锡 Nancy）。他此前正经做过实验——1891 年用勒谢尔线完成过无线电波速度的首次测量3——所以法国同行愿意信他。约 120 名科学家在约 300 篇文章里「证实」了 N 射线，而开尔文、克鲁克斯等英、德物理学家都复制不出来。英国《Nature》请美国物理学家罗伯特·伍德去南锡看演示。在那间暗室里，伍德趁人不备取走了装置中间那只关键棱镜，又把本该「发射 N 射线」的大锉刀换成一块不发射的木头，实验者依旧「看见」了 N 射线45。到 1905 年，南锡以外已经没人再信，据说布朗洛本人到 1926 年仍然信。本章正文里出现的 1904 年，说的是伍德去看的那场演示，不是布朗洛宣布发现的那一年。
- 「盲法」是这桩案子之后才长出来的制度：哈利坚持不能让做实验的人知道自己在期待什么，这在今天叫盲法——把可能影响被试或研究者的信息留到实验结束再揭示8。已知最早的一次盲测是 1784 年法国皇家委员会查磁疗，1865 年贝尔纳就主张研究者自己也该盲，但「必须盲化研究者」要到二十世纪中叶才被广泛接受；在此之前的主流看法恰好相反，认为受过教育、知道内情的研究者才能作出客观观察。单盲与双盲的区别只在于有几方保持盲态，而现在的规范做法是写清「谁对什么信息盲」，而不是只报一个「双盲」。本章回头检讨布朗洛那一段（他不该告诉助手自己在做什么，该先让助手不知道在试什么、什么时候试，再去问助手屏幕有多亮），讲的就是这件事。
- 「沃比冈湖效应」的名字来自一个虚构小镇：沃比冈湖是加里森·凯勒在广播节目里编出来的明尼苏达小镇，他每期都以「那里所有女人都强壮，所有男人都英俊，所有孩子都高于平均」收尾。心理学家借「所有孩子都高于平均」这句话，给「人倾向于高估自己」这种倾向起了个俗名9。赫敏在这个名字前面又摞了两个「超级」，把哈利那股自信说成稚气，落点就在这里。
- 阿希从众实验是真人真做过的：1951 年所罗门·阿希在斯沃斯莫尔学院把八名男学生编成一组，其中只有一人是真正的被试，其余都是安排好的「演员」。被试要当众判断三条线段里哪一条和参考线段一样长——答案几乎一眼可见。十八次判断里有十二次是关键判断，演员们一致说出明显错误的答案。没有同侪压力的控制组错误率不到 0.7%，而实验组里约三分之一的回答跟着错了，74% 的被试至少跟着错过一次10。哈利顺口提过这个名字，说改天要跟德拉科讲讲这个实验。它量的是「别人都这么说」本身有多重。
- 圣芒戈是治疯病的地方：正典里它是伦敦的巫师医院，1600 年代由治疗师芒戈·邦汉创办，收治魔法造成的伤病；医院四楼那个病区长期住的是永久性魔法精神损伤的病人——被自己的遗忘咒毁掉记忆的洛哈特、被咒语弄疯的隆巴顿夫妇都在那里16。所以本章说分院帽居然没有在圣芒戈医院里疯疯癫癫地胡言乱语，这个玩笑的落点不在「住院」，而在「那地方住的正是被魔法逼疯的人」。
- 《不可重复结果杂志》是一本真杂志：1955 年由病毒学家亚历山大·科恩与物理学家哈里·利普金在以色列创办，宗旨是办一本「关于科学、给科学家看」的幽默刊物19。「不可重复的结果」正是科学方法要防的东西，哈利把这名字安给马尔福博士主编的那本刊物，笑点就在这里。
- 「我们的魔杖会在我们手里折断」查不到正典出处：它是本书里卢修斯·马尔福演讲中的那句口号，把整句话拿去检索，命中的全是本书正文和它的转载、译本，正典文本、罗琳访谈与资料库里都没有对应台词22。
References
- 1Lois McMaster Bujold（Wikiquote）
en.wikiquote.org
- 2Vorkosigan Wiki: Quotables
vorkosigan.fandom.com
- 3Prosper-René Blondlot（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 4N-ray（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 5
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- 7How to Build a Universe（The Marginalian）
themarginalian.org
- 8Blinded experiment（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 9Lake Wobegon effect（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 10Asch conformity experiments（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 11Rita Skeeter（Harry Potter Lexicon）
hp-lexicon.org
- 12Quick-Quotes Quill（Harry Potter Lexicon）
hp-lexicon.org
- 13The Daily Prophet（J. K. Rowling）
wizardingworld.com
- 14Veritaserum（Harry Potter Lexicon）
hp-lexicon.org
- 15J. K. Rowling 官方网站答读者问存档
jkrowling.com
- 16St Mungo's Hospital for Magical Maladies and Injuries（Harry Potter Wiki）
harrypotter.fandom.com
- 17Clarke's three laws（Wikipedia）
en.wikipedia.org
- 18HPMOR 第18章（hpmor.com）
hpmor.com
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en.wikipedia.org
- 20The Founders（Harry Potter Lexicon）
hp-lexicon.org
- 21Merlin（Harry Potter Lexicon）
hp-lexicon.org
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- 23Litany of Tarski（LessWrong）
lesswrong.com
- 24Tarski's Truth Definitions（Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy）
plato.stanford.edu
- 25Litany of Gendlin（LessWrong）
lesswrong.com
- 26Avoiding Your Belief's Real Weak Points（Read the Sequences）
readthesequences.com
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