2026-08-13 10:00 纳指ETF事件流（1条）

[ { "event_id": "Reuters-NASDAQ-20260813-september-rate-odds", "title": "9 月加息概率降至 40%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-13T01:02:52.884Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-13T01:02:52.884Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "Reuters", "rate_probability_source": "CME Group FedWatch as reported by Reuters", "fed_meeting_month": "2026-09", "rate_hike_probability": { "current": 40, "previous": 54, "comparison_period": "one_week_ago", "unit": "percent" }, "july_cpi_mom": { "current": 0.1, "unit": "percent", "comparison_to_expectations": "in_line" }, "us_10y_treasury_yield": { "current": 4.688, "previous_close": 4.682, "change": 0.62, "yield_unit": "percent", "change_unit": "basis_points" } }, "transmission_chain": "9 月加息概率由一周前 54%降至 40%→预期政策利率路径边际下移→纳指成长股估值压力减轻。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 8 月 CPI 或美联储表态推动 9 月加息概率回升至 54%以上，或美债收益率持续上行时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-13/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]