Celebrini sets the ceiling, Buffalo finds the sleepers: NHL off-season digest, July 27–August 3
Macklin Celebrini's $18.8M AAV contract, three current NHL.com fantasy projection boards, and new injury and availability signals sharpen the 2026-27 draft watchlist during a game-free week.
The NHL calendar was quiet, but the fantasy board was not. Macklin Celebrini signed a five-year, $94 million extension with San Jose on July 29, and NHL.com followed with fantasy and EDGE previews for Anaheim, Boston and Buffalo from Aug. 1–3. The useful shift is from transaction headlines to role, shot profile and projected production. 1234
There were no games, weekly leaders, special-teams rates or wild-card changes to report. The 2026-27 regular season starts Sept. 29, so this edition covers the July 27–Aug. 3 offseason window through the decisions that can change a draft board before training camp. 5
Celebrini sets the contract ceiling
Celebrini's new deal pays $18.8 million per season, the NHL-high figure cited by NHL.com at the time of the article. He earned it with 115 points — 45 goals and 70 assists — in 82 games, finishing fourth in the League in points. The contract is a market marker, but the production is the more useful fantasy fact: there is no reason to treat his 2026-27 scoring baseline as a mystery. 1
Three other decisions from the window matter for different reasons:
| Player | Contract | What it changes for fantasy |
|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini, San Jose | 5 years, $94M; $18.8M AAV | The five-year commitment confirms his place at the center of San Jose's build. The contract does not require a new projection; the 115-point season already did the heavy lifting. 1 |
| Collin Graf, San Jose | 3 years, $12.75M; $4.25M AAV | Graf follows a 21-goal, 46-point season in 81 games. San Jose describes him as a versatile lineup piece and effective penalty killer. That is roster security, not yet evidence of a top-six fantasy jump. 6 |
| Tommy Novak, Pittsburgh | 3 years, $13.95M; $4.65M AAV beginning in 2027-28 | Novak had 42 points in 82 games, but the extension starts after this season. It removes a contract distraction without adding 2026-27 production by itself. 7 |
The Pittsburgh depth chart adds one more condition for draft-day evaluation. Andrei Kuzmenko arrives after 25 points in 52 games with Los Angeles, while Nicholas Robertson could move into the Penguins' top six; both paths depend on actual line and power-play usage. The team is replacing Anthony Mantha, who led Pittsburgh with 33 goals and 64 points last season. 8
The projection boards identify the useful mid-round questions
NHL.com's 32 in 32 series is now putting numbers beside the offseason changes. The projections below are not guarantees, and they do not replace camp deployment reports, but they give fantasy managers a consistent baseline for comparing ceiling with draft cost.
| Player | NHL.com rank / projection | Why the name moved onto the watchlist |
|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier, Anaheim | No. 29; 80 points | He scored 41 goals with 285 shots on goal last season. The combination makes him a legitimate high-volume redraft target rather than a pure breakout bet. 2 |
| Leo Carlsson, Anaheim | No. 34; 82 points | Carlsson produced 67 points in 70 games, including 29 goals, 38 assists and 18 power-play points. The projection asks for growth, but not an implausible one. 2 |
| Beckett Sennecke, Anaheim | No. 73; 68 points | His rookie season already included 23 goals and 60 points, with 46 even-strength points — the most among rookies. This is the clearest current example of a player whose breakout case rests on production already in the book. 2 |
| Morgan Geekie, Boston | No. 111; 69 points | Geekie had 68 points, 39 goals and 12 power-play goals last season. A near-repeat projection at a rank outside the top 100 is the bargain signal; his role, not his talent, is the question. 3 |
| Josh Doan, Buffalo | No. 135; 61 points | Doan had 52 points and nine power-play goals. Buffalo's preview expects him to keep top power-play exposure with Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, which is the prerequisite to price the projection aggressively. 4 |
| Zach Benson, Buffalo | No. 136; 60 points | Benson reached 43 points in 65 games last season and is expected to see more top-six usage after Alex Tuch's departure. The projection is a deployment bet, not a claim that 60 points is already his established level. 4 |
Boston's same preview labels Fraser Minten a breakout candidate with a 42-point projection, while Pavel Zacha is projected for 65 points and could have first-line and power-play access. Those are watchlist names until the Bruins show how the new forward mix actually settles. 3
EDGE data separates the obvious from the interesting
The current analytics pages add context that raw point projections cannot.
- Gauthier's shot profile supports the volume case. His 99.90 mph hardest shot ranked third among NHL forwards, while his 23 snap-shot goals ranked third and his 117 midrange shots on goal ranked fourth. That does not guarantee 80 points, but it explains why Anaheim's projection is built around repeatable shot creation rather than a shooting-percentage miracle. 9
- Geekie's late-round case has a measurable foundation. His 103.03 mph hardest shot ranked second in the NHL and first among forwards. He also had 17 high-danger goals, in the 94th percentile among forwards. A fantasy manager still needs to confirm his spot in Boston's scoring hierarchy, but the bargain label is not based on name recognition alone. 10
- Buffalo's secondary options are tied to where its goals came from. The Sabres ranked third in the NHL with 236 combined high-danger and midrange goals. Doan had 17 high-danger goals, and 10 of Benson's 13 goals came from high-danger areas. Those numbers make their possible role growth more interesting in category leagues, but they still need top-unit minutes. 11
Goalies and early availability discounts
The 32 in 32 pages also give the goalie board a little more shape. Jeremy Swayman is projected for 33 wins after a 31-win season, a .923 even-strength save percentage and 38 quality starts, the most in the NHL. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is projected for 29 wins after a .910 save percentage in 34 starts; Buffalo expects him to share time with Alex Lyon. Swayman offers a workload-and-rate case. Luukkonen offers a cheaper volume possibility with more dependence on the split. 3410
Two availability notes belong beside those projections:
- Boston's EDGE preview says Charlie McAvoy will miss the first six games of the season because of suspension. That is a short, defined draft discount, not a reason to erase his offensive profile. 10
- Anaheim's Aug. 1 fantasy preview still lists Troy Terry's hip surgery as a key injury. The earlier NHL roster outlook says the hip impingement and labral tear were expected to keep him out until at least November, so his draft value depends more on league format and injured-reserve flexibility than on a normal projection. 212
What to carry into the next draft update
- Celebrini is a top-end asset whose new contract confirms organizational commitment; it does not need a separate hype premium beyond his 115-point season.
- Sennecke, Doan and Benson are the strongest current breakout watchlist names because their projections connect to rookie production, power-play access or a vacant top-six role.
- Geekie and Gauthier have the shot-quality evidence to justify attention before line combinations are official.
- McAvoy and Terry are the immediate availability checks, while Swayman and Luukkonen show why goalie projections need both rate stats and expected workload.
The next useful information will not be another generic offseason ranking. It will be camp deployment: first power-play units, top-six combinations and which goalies receive the starts. Until then, there is still no game sample to support a new standings or weekly-performance conclusion.
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