Trump's 5-hour reversal sends Iran ceasefire odds up 41pp

Morning update — coverage window: June 11, 09:30 UTC-5 → June 12, 09:00 UTC-5 (~23.5 hours)

On Thursday evening, Trump posted on Truth Social threatening to hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and seize Kharg Island — Iran's main oil export terminal. Five hours later, he posted again to call the strikes off, telling reporters: "We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran." 1 Axios and the Saudi Gazette reported that US and Iran had reached an "agreement in principle" through Qatari mediation — a 60-day ceasefire framework, Hormuz reopening, unfreezing Iranian assets, and a nuclear talks structure, pending final approval by Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. 2 CENTCOM confirmed it launched no Day 3 strikes on June 11. 3 CENTCOM's simultaneous June 10 denial of Iran's Hormuz closure claim framed the "no escalation" read that markets were trading:

콘텐츠 카드를 불러오는 중…

Prediction markets repriced fast. The June 30 ceasefire extension jumped +41pp to 77% in a single session on $690K volume. The June 15 peace deal surged +10.15pp to 14.45% on $6.23M volume — the highest-volume Iran contract in this window. The full term structure from June through December repriced upward across every tenor. Brent crude fell −4.22% to $86.57/bbl, its lowest since April 17. 4 BTC held $63,676, up +1.37% in 24 hours. 5

Quick-scan snapshot

Market	Prob	24h Δ	24h Vol	Category
Iran ceasefire ext — Jun 30 ⚡	77.00%	+41.0pp	$690K	Geopolitics
Iran ceasefire ext — Jul 31	83.00%	+24.5pp	$170K	Geopolitics
Iran peace deal — Jun 15 ⚡	14.45%	+10.15pp	$6.23M	Geopolitics
Iran peace deal — Jun 30	33.50%	+18.0pp	$2.62M	Geopolitics
Iran peace deal — Jul 31	41.50%	+10.0pp	$580K	Geopolitics
Iran peace deal — Aug 31	56.50%	+14.0pp	$140K	Geopolitics
Iran peace deal — Dec 31	74.50%	+7.0pp	$630K	Geopolitics
Iran ceasefire ext — Jun 12 ⚠️	13.80%	+8.95pp	$1.98M	Geopolitics
Project Freedom — Jun 30 (UMA dispute)	99.95%	flat	$3.20M	Geopolitics
Fed June — no change	99.3%	+0.05pp	$5.49M	Macro
Fed zero cuts 2026	76.55%	+2.05pp	$3M est.	Macro
Peru winner — Fujimori	95.9%	−1.35pp	$470K	Election
Peru winner — Sánchez	3.05%	+0.65pp	$1.08M	Election
Russia nuclear test — Jun 30	0.85%	flat	$972	Geopolitics
BTC spot price	$63,676	+1.37%	—	Crypto
BTC ETF Day 18 net flow	—	−$22.5M	—	Crypto

⚠️ Jun 12 ceasefire resolves tonight at 11:59 PM ET — at 13.80%, it prices mostly NO unless a formal signing occurs today. 6 7

Iran: the term structure's biggest single-day move since the war began

The mechanics of Trump's reversal matter for reading the market. At ~5 PM ET on June 11, Trump posted a Fox News-framed threat: "There will be more bombing tonight. It will be bigger — bigger, more powerful." 8 He separately floated seizing Kharg Island — where roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports originate — and "other oil infrastructure points." At ~10 PM ET, he reversed on Truth Social, said negotiations had been "elevated to the highest levels of the Iranian government," and announced the deal's "final points" were approved. Trump's description to reporters: "a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a little conceptual." 1

Richard Weitz, an international security expert at the NATO Defense College, described the pattern as deliberate: Trump was using the strategy of threatening to "escalate a conflict in order to force an end to it," while warning that "we still have a bit of uncertainty over what precisely was agreed and how it will be implemented." 9 Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed most terms were settled but said: "We have not reached a final conclusion on this matter. This is a very important issue that is currently being reviewed by the relevant decision-making bodies." 9

Multiple small vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz under hazy sky, seen from Musandam, Oman — Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran standoff. 4

The 24-hour market data reveals the scale of repricing: 6 7

Contract	Start	End	Change
Peace deal Jun 15	4.30%	14.45%	+10.15pp
Peace deal Jun 30	15.50%	33.50%	+18.0pp
Peace deal Jul 31	31.50%	41.50%	+10.0pp
Peace deal Aug 31	42.5%	56.50%	+14.0pp
Peace deal Dec 31	67.5%	74.50%	+7.0pp
Ceasefire ext Jun 30	36.00%	77.00%	+41.0pp
Ceasefire ext Jul 31	58.50%	83.00%	+24.5pp

New daily ceasefire extension markets appeared for June 13 through 19 — ranging from 22% (Jun 13) to 64.5% (Jun 19) — which is the market's way of building out a resolution curve it didn't need before Thursday night. 6

The June 12 ceasefire market (deadline tonight, 11:59 PM ET) sits at 13.80% — up from 4.85% on improved sentiment, but still mostly pricing NO absent a formal signing today. VP JD Vance is reportedly set to attend a signing ceremony "maybe over the weekend in Europe," per Trump's own phrasing. 1

One note on Project Freedom: the market held flat at 99.95% with $3.20M in 24-hour volume, but the UMA (Universal Market Access — Polymarket's on-chain dispute resolution protocol) dispute remains in its 5th cycle. 10 Without a formal CENTCOM or White House announcement restarting the escort operation, the resolution risk on ~$5M in notional YES exposure remains live.

Signal for traders: The mid-curve ceasefire (June 30, now 77%) and June 30 peace deal (33.5%) both repriced aggressively, but Khamenei's approval is the remaining binary. A formal signing this weekend would push near-term contracts to near-100%; a breakdown pushes them back below 50% — the directional range is still wide. Brent at $86.57 is pricing a deal-likely scenario; ING analysts warn that if oil flows don't resume by late July, inventory tightness and seasonal demand push prices back toward $120–130/bbl. 4 XLE, tanker names, and USD/CAD are the correlated assets to watch against the June–July ceasefire extension curve.

BTC: IBIT breaks its 15-day outflow streak as ETF bleeding slows sharply

The ETF picture on Day 18 (June 11) looked meaningfully different from Day 17's −$213.9M. Total net outflows dropped to −$22.5M — a 90% reduction in a single session. 11 IBIT (BlackRock) posted +$30.3M in inflows, ending a 15-consecutive-day outflow streak — the longest in IBIT's history. 11 GBTC (Grayscale) hit zero flow for the first time this cycle. Offsetting those positives: ARKB (Ark) −$27.2M, HODL (VanEck) −$14.8M, BITB (Bitwise) −$13.1M, FBTC (Fidelity) −$5.5M. 11

BTC spot is at $63,676 (+1.37%), market cap $1.275 trillion, with BTC dominance at 56.32% — near multi-year highs, meaning altcoins (ETH ~$1,676, SOL ~$67.07, XRP ~$1.14) have underperformed sharply through the correction. 12 BTC is down approximately 48% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. 13

On the sentiment side, the Fear & Greed Index hit 12 (Extreme Fear) on June 12 — the 11th consecutive day in Extreme Fear territory, surpassing the prior record of 10 consecutive days from March 2025. 14 K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde flagged that more than 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now trading at an unrealized loss — a level not crossed since the post-FTX depths of late 2022. 15 Historically, prior crossings of this threshold (2018, 2020, 2022) preceded cycle lows, though each prior instance included a final leg lower before recovery.

The Michael Saylor narrative saw one clarification this week. At the BTC Prague conference on June 11, Saylor walked back the "never sell" framing, saying: "I never said the company could not sell bitcoin." 16 The context: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 32 BTC for ~$2.5M in early June to fund distributions on its perpetual preferred stock — the company's first bitcoin sale since 2022, representing 0.004% of its 845,256 BTC holdings. 16 Strategy then bought back 1,550 BTC for $101M the following week. On June 12, Saylor posted: 17

콘텐츠 카드를 불러오는 중…

Strategy's average cost basis is approximately $75,540/BTC, with ~$6.7B in convertible debt and ~$1B in USD reserves.

On the product side, BlackRock filed its fourth SEC amendment for the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA), disclosing a 0.65% sponsor fee and a covered-call strategy on IBIT shares, expected to trade on Nasdaq. 18 Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas called this likely the final amendment before launch — BlackRock is racing Goldman Sachs, whose competing product is expected around July 1. 18

Signal for traders: One good ETF day doesn't flip the 18-day outflow narrative, but IBIT's streak break and GBTC's zero-flow day are the two signals that matter. If IBIT posts a second consecutive inflow day, the exhaustion thesis gets traction. The 11-day Extreme Fear streak and 50%-underwater supply signal are historically constructive setups — but both past instances came with a deeper final leg lower before recovery. The BTC price target on Polymarket's "Bitcoin above ___ on June 12" market has attracted $1.8M in total volume since June 5; the June 14 market has $105K building. 19

Fed: June hold at 99.3%, zero-cuts at 76.55% ahead of Warsh's first FOMC

The June FOMC no-change contract sits at 99.3% with $5.49M in 24-hour volume — the highest-volume macro contract of the session. 20 The "zero cuts in 2026" contract is at 76.55% (+2.05pp), with one-cut probability at 13.5% and two-or-more at roughly 10%. 20

The June 16-17 FOMC will be Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. The rate outcome is settled; what traders are watching is whether Warsh removes the "easing bias" language from the post-meeting statement. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has already said publicly: "I would support removing the 'easing bias' language in our policy statement to make it clear that a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase." 21 Capital Economics sees Warsh facing a "fractious FOMC" with hawkish members already pushing for a hike. 22

The macro backdrop entering the meeting: May CPI at 4.2% YoY (a three-year high), driven by energy goods (+40.5% YoY); core CPI at +0.2% MoM, a soft print. The FOMC blackout period is in effect — no Fed official speeches between now and the June 18 announcement.

Signal for traders: The statement language, not the rate vote, is the June 17 market event. Removal of easing bias is consensus-expected and roughly priced; the surprise would be any explicit signal of a July hike — which would push the zero-cuts-2026 contract further toward 80%+ and pressure the 2-year Treasury.

Peru: Sánchez calls 'La Toma de Lima' march for today as JNE reviews 400K ballots

Keiko Fujimori leads Roberto Sánchez by approximately 600 votes — 50.002% to 49.998% — with ONPE's official count at above 98%. 23 The remaining ~40,000 tally sheets (roughly 400,000 votes) have been sent to the JNE (Peru's National Elections Jury) for review; the JNE's formal proclamation is not expected before mid-July. 23 Sánchez's legal team has filed petitions to annul 1,750 Lima precincts and 657 US-based precincts.

Polymarket moved against Fujimori: Sánchez climbed +0.65pp to 3.05% while Fujimori slipped −1.35pp to 95.9%. 24 Sánchez's $1.08M in 24-hour volume against Fujimori's $470K is the tell — money is flowing into the lower-probability side, consistent with either genuine hedging or position-closers covering short YES exposure. Sánchez told his supporters: "Our people are vigilant, the vote and democracy must be respected." 23

Today (June 12), Sánchez supporters have called "La Toma de Lima" — a national march on central Lima. The Lima mayor has declared the Historic Center a restricted zone and deployed roughly 1,000 surveillance cameras and drones; Lima's emergency decree from April 29 remains in effect. 25 Sánchez met with EU and OAS election observers on June 11; both bodies have confirmed the vote was conducted without major irregularities. 26

Peru's equity index closed +3.94% on June 11, with the sol strengthening to 3.39/USD (+0.56%) — markets are pricing a Fujimori outcome and the more conservative legislative restraints that come with it.

Signal for traders: The JNE review will take weeks. The 95.9% pricing on Fujimori reflects the strong statistical case (overseas ballots lean conservative, Lima's contested stations are largely from areas she performed well in 2021), but the street risk from today's march introduces a nonlinear tail. Peruvian equities and BVL-exposed names are the direct expression.

BOJ: Himino to chair June 15-16 meeting as Ueda remains hospitalized

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda (74) was hospitalized on June 9 with a hepatic cyst infection and is expected to remain in hospital for approximately two weeks. 27 Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will chair the June 15-16 policy meeting — the first time a sitting BOJ governor has missed a regular meeting since the current BOJ governance structure began in 1998. 27 Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will handle the post-decision press conference. Ueda will submit written opinions; monetary policy is decided by majority vote among the 8-member Policy Board.

Markets widely expect a hike from 0.75% to 1.0% — which would be the highest Japanese policy rate since September 1995. 28 Capital Economics views the hike as on track despite Ueda's absence. 22 Nomura rate strategist Mari Iwashita noted that Ueda's June 3 speech had already signaled the path, and that his absence does not change the decision — though it may reduce the forward guidance clarity in the post-meeting statement. USD/JPY sits at approximately 160.25, a level that previously triggered intervention in 2024. 29

Signal for traders: No Polymarket market exists on the BOJ outcome. The USD/JPY level at 160.25 is the direct expression — a hike with hawkish forward guidance squeezes the yen toward 155; a hike with softened tone (Asia Business Outlook's base case) keeps it near 160. The asymmetric trade here is yen options vol, not directional spot.

Russia nuclear test: 0.85%, $972 in volume, no new signal

The "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30?" market closed June 11 at 0.85% — unchanged from yesterday. 30 Twenty-four-hour volume was $972. The December 31 market sits at 9.05% on $4 in volume. No Russian nuclear signaling from any primary source in this window; the contagion trade that briefly spiked this contract during the early US-Iran escalation has fully drained. The June 30 contract is a pure residual carry position at this point.

Key events to watch (next 24–48 hours)

Tonight (June 12, 11:59 PM ET): June 12 Iran ceasefire extension resolves. At 13.80%, it prices mostly NO — a YES settlement requires a formal US-Iran signing announcement before midnight. Watch Truth Social and CENTCOM for any unexpected signal. 6
This weekend: Trump indicated a possible deal signing "in Europe" with VP Vance attending. 1 A signed MOU would push the ceasefire extension curve (Jun 15–Jun 30) toward 60–80%+ and likely break Brent below $85. No signing keeps those contracts oscillating in the 15–40% range.
June 12 today: "La Toma de Lima" march in central Lima. Escalation to violence is the downside tail for Peruvian equities and the 95.9% Fujimori contract. 25
June 15-16: BOJ policy meeting under Himino. Hike to 1.0% is widely expected; statement language on yen is the variable. 28
June 16-17: FOMC under Warsh. Hold is consensus; watch for easing bias language removal in the statement. 21
Ongoing: IBIT Day 19 ETF flow — one positive day (Day 18: +$30.3M) does not break the 18-day outflow trend; a second consecutive inflow day would. 11

Cover image: Donald Trump at press appearance. 9