SPCX opens, Adobe beats but loses its CFO, and the Iran deal saves the Nasdaq

SPCX opens — the market gets its first verdict on the $1.78T IPO

The day of reckoning for the largest IPO in US history arrived Friday morning. SpaceX — under the ticker SPCX — began trading on the Nasdaq at a fixed offer price of $135 per share, implying a market cap of roughly $1.78 trillion and raising $75 billion in new capital. 1

The price was locked well before the roadshow opened last week — an unusually direct approach for a deal of this scale. CEO Elon Musk's team skipped the traditional range-setting process and simply named the number, leaving Thursday's "pricing" as a formality. Underwriters hold an overallotment option for an additional ~83 million shares (~$11.2B) should early-day demand require it.

What the market prices SPCX at within its first few hours of trading — relative to the $135 offer — will be the first real signal of whether the institutional demand that generated 4× oversubscription actually holds when sell orders are allowed. Analysts' targets span a notable range: Oppenheimer started at Outperform, $190; New Street initiated with a $165 target; Morningstar's bear case sits at $63. 2

Space-adjacent stocks surged in the run-up to the IPO: Viasat more than doubled year-to-date, Intuitive Machines +88%, and EchoStar — which holds a SpaceX stake — gained 8%+ on Thursday alone. Whether those moves sustain after the IPO supply hits the tape is the sector's open question. 3

Adobe beats big, then loses its CFO

Adobe reported record Q2 FY2026 revenue of $6.62 billion on Thursday — 13% year-over-year growth, beating the $6.45 billion consensus estimate by $170 million. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $5.96, ahead of the ~$5.82 estimate. 4

The headline numbers were strong across the board:

Adobe Q2 FY2026 — Actual vs. Consensus

Quarter ended May 29, 2026

Total Revenue

$0.00+13.0%YoY

Non-GAAP EPS

$0.00+18.0%YoY

Total ARR

$0.00

Subscription Revenue

$0.00+14.0%YoY

통계 카드를 불러오는 중…

AI-first ARR — a metric Adobe introduced to track revenue from AI product lines — tripled year-over-year and passed $500 million, a figure CEO Shantanu Narayen cited as proof of "strong AI-driven demand." The company raised its full-year FY2026 guidance to $26.50–$26.60B in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $24.35–$24.45 (up from prior range of ~$23.30–$23.50). Q3 guidance of $6.67–$6.72B in revenue was above the $6.51B street consensus. 5

Then the other shoe dropped. CFO Dan Durn is leaving the company on June 15, just four days away. Steve Day, SVP of Corporate Finance, steps in as interim CFO. The news landed on top of last quarter's announcement that CEO Narayen — 18 years at the helm — will also depart once a successor is named. The result: shares fell approximately 5.5% in after-hours trading despite the beat. ADBE had already lost nearly half its value over the past 12 months, entering Thursday's print near its lowest level since 2019, under pressure from the April launch of Anthropic's Claude Design. 6

The stock's reaction reflects a question the numbers didn't fully answer: can a company in the middle of simultaneous CEO and CFO transitions execute on its AI roadmap while defending its creative and productivity moats?

Intel's double-upgrade and the SOXX rebound

The chip sector put in its best single-day rally in weeks on Thursday, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up more than 8% after a 10% rout the previous Friday. The catalyst was a dramatic reversal from Bank of America. 7

BofA analyst Vivek Arya double-upgraded INTC from Underperform to Buy and lifted his 12-month target from $96 to $135 — the street's highest. The upgrade leaned on two arguments: Intel is "largely sold out" of leading-edge wafers and packaging, and the rise of agentic AI creates a "much larger" x86 server CPU market than the prior model assumed. BofA raised its estimate for the global server CPU TAM to more than $170 billion by 2030 and said Intel's server CPU revenue could top $40 billion by end-of-decade. Intel shares responded with roughly a 9% gain on the day, bringing the stock's year-to-date advance past 200%.

Micron and AMD also participated in the bounce — both names had shed double-digits in the prior five sessions alongside the broader chip sector's rotation-driven selloff.

Oracle's $20B capital raise weighs on the stock

Not all software names had a good Thursday. Oracle shares fell 11% — their worst day since January 2025 — after the company disclosed plans to raise an additional $20 billion in equity and debt to fund AI buildout, while also reporting negative free cash flow for the year. The stock is now down roughly 8% year-to-date and below last week's CPI-day pop. 3

The dilution concern puts Oracle in a similar structural position to SMCI earlier this week, when a $7 billion equity offering sent its shares down 19%. Both cases reflect the AI infrastructure spending cycle's financial reality: capital requirements at scale mean existing shareholders absorb the growth cost first.

The macro backdrop: Iran ceasefire sends oil down, Nasdaq up

Thursday's session ended sharply higher after President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had canceled strikes against Iran planned for that evening, and told reporters in the Oval Office that "we have a deal that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon." The S&P 500 gained 1.75% to 7,394, the Nasdaq added 2.54% to 25,810, and the Dow rose 930 points to 50,849. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.58% to $87.71 and continued dropping post-settle. 3

The rally came despite Thursday's PPI reading of +1.1% for May — hotter than the +0.7% Dow Jones consensus — and an earlier spike in oil after Trump had separately threatened to seize Iran's Kharg Island. The sequence reinforced the market's pattern: inflation data above estimates gets ignored if geopolitical tail risk deflates simultaneously. The 10-year Treasury had settled at 4.55% Wednesday; the Trump Iran announcement shifted the risk calculus before yields could move higher Friday morning.

US markets close — Thursday, June 11

Session totals after Trump called off Iran strikes

S&P 500

0+1.8%day

Nasdaq Composite

0+2.5%day

Dow Jones

0+1.9%day

WTI Crude ($/bbl)

0−2.6%day

SOXX (Semiconductor ETF)

0+8.0%day

통계 카드를 불러오는 중…

The ECB raised its deposit rate 25bps to 2.25% Thursday — its first hike in three years and first among G7 central banks this cycle — citing inflationary pressure from oil prices. The June 17 FOMC (Kevin Warsh's first as chair) now sits five calendar days away, with rate hike probability at roughly 2% per CME FedWatch. 3

Traders on the NYSE floor as US stocks surged Thursday on Trump's Iran ceasefire announcement — NYSE floor during Thursday's surge after Trump called off Iran strikes. 3

What to watch next week

Five events that matter for tech investors heading into the week of June 15:

FOMC meeting (June 17–18): Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC. No rate change is priced in, but the statement language around inflation and the oil channel will be parsed closely given PPI and CPI both running above consensus.
Nvidia earnings: The quarter markets have been most anxious about arrives. After Jensen Huang skipped a Senate AI hearing last week, the print becomes the primary read on whether hyperscaler AI capex is still growing or peaking.
Cisco and Disney earnings: Two large-cap reads on enterprise IT spending and consumer demand, arriving before Nvidia.
SPCX price discovery: After the first full day, and then the first week of trading, the spread between the $135 offer and where SPCX settles will shape how other large private AI companies think about their own IPO windows.
Adobe's leadership transition: With the CFO departure on June 15 and a CEO search ongoing, any news on the succession or a strategic pivot will land in a stock already down nearly 40% year-to-date.