Market Cap
$2.51B
TTM Revenue Growth
41.31%
PEG Ratio
0.40–0.41
Operating Cash Flow
+$91.9M TTM
Forward P/E
~7.95×
EV/EBITDA
11.53–11.78×
Net Debt
$1.65B
Next Earnings
Jul 23, 2026
HNI: the only name to survive the QoQ→TTM trap this week — Pass #28
HNI Corporation (NYSE: HNI) is Pass #28 — the series' first office furniture pick and its most leveraged balance sheet yet. Market cap $2.51B ✅, TTM revenue +41.31% (dual-source) ✅, PEG 0.40–0.41 (triple-source) ✅, OCF +$91.9M TTM ✅. Revenue growth is 100% Steelcase-acquisition-driven (closed Dec 10, 2025); TTM net income is just $1.5M on $3.59B revenue. Forward P/E ~8x against a projected 17–20% EPS CAGR; analyst consensus Strong Buy at $69 avg target (+98% upside). Key risks: Altman Z-Score 1.63 (distress zone), $1.73B debt vs. $78M cash, 121% dividend payout ratio, and zero insider buying during a 35% drawdown. Q2 FY2026 earnings on July 23, 2026 is the near-term binary.
HNI Corporation (NYSE: HNI) — Pass #28 in the daily small-cap screen. Seven candidates failed because Finviz's QoQ sales filter does not guarantee TTM revenue growth above 30%. HNI is the sole survivor with a 41.31% TTM figure confirmed across two independent sources. It is also the series' first pick in office furniture — and arguably its most complicated balance sheet yet.
Hard filter scorecard
| Filter | Threshold | Actual | Sources | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | < $10B | $2.51B | Finviz, StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance | ✅ Pass |
| TTM revenue growth | > 30% | 41.31% | Finviz (Sales Y/Y TTM), StockAnalysis (Revenue Growth YoY TTM) | ✅ Pass |
| PEG ratio | < 1.0 | 0.40–0.41 | StockAnalysis: 0.40; Finviz: 0.41; Yahoo Finance: 0.44 | ✅ Pass |
| Operating cash flow | Positive | +$91.9M TTM | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance | ✅ Pass |
PEG derivation: Forward P/E of ~7.95 (StockAnalysis) divided by 5-year EPS growth estimate of 17.41% ≈ 0.40. 2 Finviz reports 0.41 using its own forward P/E input; Yahoo Finance shows 0.44. All three sources agree: PEG is well under 1.0. 1 3
Why 7 of 8 candidates failed: The Finviz screener uses QoQ sales growth as a proxy for the ">30%" filter. Five tickers — KLIC (+11.16% TTM), GBTG (+20.67%), KALU (+20.84%), GVA (+14.93%), INDB (+27.40%), IRWD (+13.80%), and LWAY (+21.85%) — each had QoQ surges well above 30%, but their TTM revenue growth ranged from 11% to 27%. Only HNI's 41.31% TTM figure survived independent verification. 1 2
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Business model
HNI Corporation (headquartered in Muscatine, Iowa, founded 1944) is one of the largest office furniture manufacturers in the United States, operating through two segments.
Workplace Furnishings makes panel-based systems, seating, storage, and tables under brands including HNI, Allsteel, Gunlocke, and — since December 10, 2025 — Steelcase. 1 Steelcase (NYSE: SCS until acquisition) was the largest global office furniture brand by revenue; combining the two companies created what HNI describes as the industry's largest player. 4
Residential Building Products manufactures fireplaces, stoves, and inserts under the Hearth & Home Technologies brand. This segment provided ballast during the pandemic-era office furniture downturn and remains a meaningful contributor, though the acquisition has tilted HNI's revenue mix decisively toward commercial.
HNI employs approximately 18,500–19,500 people post-acquisition and trades in the Consumer Cyclical sector. 2 1
HNI's fiscal year ends in January. The TTM period referenced throughout this article ends April 4, 2026 (end of Q1 FY2026).
Financials and growth
Revenue trend: steady organic growth, then the Steelcase step-change
| Fiscal year | Revenue | YoY growth |
|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $2.36B | — |
| FY2023 | $2.43B | +2.9% |
| FY2024 | $2.53B | +4.1% |
| FY2025 | $2.84B | +12.3% |
| Q1 FY2026 (3 months, ending Apr 4, 2026) | $1.35B | — |
| TTM (ending Apr 4, 2026) | $3.59B | +41.31% |
The organic trajectory was 3–12% annually. The Steelcase acquisition, closed December 10, 2025, added roughly $700–750M in quarterly revenue starting Q1 FY2026 — Q1's $1.35B represents a 124.66% QoQ jump from Q4 FY2025's $606M. 4 1 The 41.31% TTM growth figure passes the screen's >30% threshold, but every point of it traces back to the Steelcase deal. There is no organic acceleration embedded in the TTM number.
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Earnings: the acquisition drained the income statement
| Period | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | $139.5M | $3.80 | Pre-acquisition baseline |
| FY2025 | $54.2M | $1.52 | Acquisition costs + integration charges |
| Q1 FY2026 | $11.2M | $0.34 | First full quarter with Steelcase |
| TTM (Apr 4, 2026) | ~$1.4–1.5M | $0.41 | Near-zero margin (0.04%) |
The collapse from $3.80 EPS in FY2024 to $0.41 TTM reflects acquisition-related amortization and integration costs rather than operational deterioration. Analysts project this reverses: FY2026 EPS consensus is $4.02 (4 analysts, range $3.99–$4.10) and FY2027 is $4.84 (range $4.60–$5.00). 6 The forward P/E of ~7.95x is based on this expected recovery — if earnings normalize toward $4.02, the stock's current price of $34.86 is priced at roughly 8.7x FY2026 earnings.
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Note on earnings beats and misses: Q1 FY2026 actual EPS of $0.34 beat the consensus estimate of $0.29 (+18.3%). Q4 FY2025 was a miss: $0.83 actual vs. $0.91 consensus (–8.8%). 6
Valuation
HNI vs. office furniture and small-cap sector peers
| Company | Fwd P/E | PEG | EV/EBITDA | P/S | TTM Rev Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNI (NYSE: HNI) | 7.95× | 0.40 | 11.53× | 0.70 | 41.3% |
| Herman Miller/MillerKnoll (MLKN) | ~14× | n/a | ~9× | ~0.4× | Low single digits |
| Kimball International (KBAL, pre-merger) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Small-cap Consumer Cyclical median | ~15–18× | varies | ~10–12× | ~1× | — |
HNI's P/S of 0.70 is near 10-year lows for the company. 2 The forward multiple of ~7.95x sits roughly 50% below the Consumer Cyclical sector median — the market is pricing in execution risk on the Steelcase integration, not an ongoing earnings trough.
Two valuation caveats to keep in mind. First, the P/FCF of ~317x (based on TTM FCF of only $7.8M) is effectively uninvestable at face value — the numerator for any FCF-based valuation needs FY2026 FCF normalization. Second, EV/EBITDA of ~11.5x is calculated on a blended TTM figure that includes acquisition costs; ex-integration, the true run-rate EBITDA is higher, which pulls the multiple down further.
Balance sheet
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.73–1.76B | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance 7 |
| Cash & equivalents | $71.4–78.2M | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance 7 |
| Net debt | ~$1.65B | Calculated 7 |
| Total assets | $4.77B | StockAnalysis 7 |
| Goodwill | $1.82B | From Steelcase acquisition 7 |
| Tangible book value | –$1.82B | Goodwill exceeds equity 2 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.97× | Yahoo Finance 3 |
| Current ratio | 1.39× | StockAnalysis 7 |
| Quick ratio | 0.68–0.86× | Below 1.0 7 |
| Interest coverage | 4.49× | StockAnalysis 2 |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.63 | StockAnalysis 2 |
| OCF (TTM) | $91.9M | StockAnalysis 8 |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.8M | StockAnalysis 8 |
The Steelcase acquisition was financed with debt: total debt ballooned from ~$499M pre-deal to $1.73B, a 3.5× increase. 7 Cash fell from ~$209M at FY2025 year-end to $71–78M by Q1 FY2026. 7
Altman Z-Score of 1.63 places HNI in the distress zone (below 1.81 = high bankruptcy risk; 1.81–3.0 = caution; above 3.0 = safe). This does not mean bankruptcy is imminent — interest coverage of 4.49× shows HNI can service the debt — but it quantifies the margin-of-safety deficit. The metric is most useful here as a measure of how thin the cushion is if the macro or integration deteriorates. 2
The current ratio of 1.39× is adequate; the quick ratio of 0.68–0.86× (below 1.0) suggests reliance on inventory to meet short-term obligations. For a manufacturing business that is normal, but it adds to the picture of a company operating with limited financial slack. 7
Growth catalysts
1. Steelcase integration synergies. HNI announced plant consolidation on January 8, 2026 to capture manufacturing efficiencies across the combined entity. 1 Cross-selling between legacy HNI brands (Allsteel, Gunlocke) and Steelcase's global distribution network is the central revenue synergy thesis. Analyst consensus projects FY2026 revenue of ~$6.0B (4 analysts) and FY2027 of ~$6.24B, both reflecting a full year of combined operations. 6
2. Earnings normalization. Integration and amortization costs compressed TTM net income to $1.5M on $3.59B revenue. The FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.02 implies analysts believe those costs normalize over the course of this year. If Q2 FY2026 (July 23, 2026 earnings release, before market open) confirms that trajectory, the forward multiple of ~8x looks compelling against the projected 17–20% EPS growth rate. 6 2
3. New product launches under the Allsteel brand. HNI has been active with product releases post-acquisition: Allsteel Levra seating (June 8, 2026, award-winning performance chair), Allsteel Flourish collaborative chair (May 22, 2026), and a reimagined Boston showroom (April 23, 2026) designed as an experience-focused design lab. 1 These signal ongoing R&D investment in the Workplace Furnishings segment, though revenue impact takes quarters to materialize.
4. Dividend growth consistency. HNI raised its quarterly dividend from $0.34 to $0.35 in May 2026 — its 15th consecutive year of dividend increases. 1 The annualized $1.40 forward yield is 4.0% at the current price. At current TTM earnings, the payout ratio is unsustainable (121.80%), but against consensus FY2026 EPS of $4.02, the normalized payout ratio would be ~35% — manageable and consistent with HNI's historical dividend policy. 1
3-year revenue CAGR (analyst consensus): 33.13%. 3-year EPS CAGR: 17.41%. 2
Key risks
Risk #1 — Acquisition-driven growth is not organic. Pre-Steelcase organic revenue growth ran at 3–12% annually from FY2022–FY2025. The 41.31% TTM growth passes the screen but says nothing about HNI's intrinsic demand trajectory. If integration costs persist or synergies are delayed, the EPS recovery thesis fails. 4
Risk #2 — Near-zero profitability with an outsized dividend. TTM net income of ~$1.5M on $3.59B revenue (0.04% margin) means EPS could turn negative on any integration stumble. The dividend payout ratio of 121.80% (Finviz) means dividends are currently being funded from cash reserves or debt, not earnings. Trigger to watch: Q2 FY2026 EPS consensus of $1.04 — a miss below ~$0.85 would imply FY2026 is running materially below the $4.02 annual consensus. 1 6
Risk #3 — $1.73B debt with limited cash flexibility. Debt-to-FCF TTM is ~221x — at current FCF levels, HNI would need over 200 years to retire its debt from operations. This is a transitional metric (FCF should recover), but it illustrates how tight the current balance sheet is. If the Fed keeps rates elevated and HNI's refinancing window arrives before earnings normalize, the interest burden compounds. 7 8
Risk #4 — Goodwill impairment exposure. HNI carries $1.82B in goodwill from the Steelcase acquisition, pushing tangible book value to –$1.82B. 2 If the commercial office market softens materially — remote/hybrid work trends continue to pressure office furniture demand — or if Steelcase's brand premium erodes post-acquisition, a goodwill write-down would wipe a meaningful portion of shareholders' equity.
Risk #5 — No insider buying during a 35% drawdown. The stock is down 34.58% from its 52-week high of $53.29. Recent insider transactions are exclusively sales: Brian Scott Smith (President, Hearth & Home) sold 2,000 shares at $52.20 in February 2026; Director Miguel Calado sold 1,743 shares at $53.00 and 2,000 shares at $50.00 in June–July 2025. 1 CEO Jeffrey Lorenger sold 200 shares at $53.29 in July 2025. No open-market purchases have been disclosed. Management declining to buy at prices ~35% below where they sold is a meaningful signal about their own near-term confidence. 1 2
Risk #6 — Industry structural headwinds. Hybrid work permanently reduces per-employee office space. Major corporate clients may slow or defer furniture refresh cycles. HNI now has substantial customer concentration risk in large corporate accounts post-Steelcase. 1
Price action
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price (Jun 18, 2026 close) | $34.86 (+7.56% on day) | Finviz 1 |
| 52-week high | $53.29 | Finviz 1 |
| Distance from 52-week high | –34.58% | Calculated |
| 52-week low | $28.93 | Finviz 1 |
| YTD performance | –17.08% | Finviz 1 |
| 1-year performance | –25.64% | Finviz 1 |
| 50-day moving average | $33.60 (price above) | Finviz 1 |
| 200-day moving average | $40.82 (price below) | Finviz 1 |
| Beta | 0.93–0.95 | Finviz, StockAnalysis 1 |
| RSI (14-day) | 62.41 | Finviz 1 |
| Avg daily volume | ~722K shares | Finviz 1 |
| Short float | 4.32% | Finviz 1 |
| Short interest days to cover | 4.23 days | Finviz 1 |
The +7.56% move on June 18 lifts HNI above its 50-day MA ($33.60) and RSI to 62.41 — neither overbought territory nor a sign of renewed conviction. The stock remains 17.1% below its 200-day MA ($40.82), which has been the ceiling since the acquisition closed. 1 Short interest at 4.32% with 4.23 days to cover is elevated but not extreme — a short squeeze is unlikely given the low borrow demand and the legitimate fundamental concerns that bear-side investors are expressing. 1
Analyst consensus
| Firm | Rating | Price target | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longbow Research | Buy | $70 | Initiated May 2025 — Steelcase deal as transformative |
| Benchmark Company | Buy | $65 | Maintained; target lowered from $75 post-Q1 FY2026 miss |
| Zacks | Strong Buy | — | Upgraded Feb 2026; cited deep value + earnings recovery |
Two analysts cover HNI with a consensus rating of Strong Buy. Average price target is $69.00 (range: $65–$70), implying 97.9% upside from the $34.86 close. 1 2
Recent EPS estimate revisions have been downward: the current-quarter Q2 FY2026 consensus fell from $1.12 (seven days ago) to $1.04, reflecting analyst adjustments post-Q1 results. 6 Benchmark lowering its target from $75 to $65 after Q1 is a sign that even the bullish camp is absorbing the integration timeline slippage.
The implied thesis: if HNI achieves FY2026 EPS of $4.02 and trades at 15× earnings (a modest multiple for a Consumer Cyclical at this scale), the price would be ~$60. At 17×, ~$68 — broadly consistent with analyst targets. The bear-case counterargument: $4.02 EPS has never been demonstrated with the combined Steelcase entity, and is derived from analysts projecting a cost trajectory that management has yet to confirm through a full fiscal year. 6
Insider and institutional ownership
Top institutional holders (as of Mar 31, 2026): BlackRock Inc. 8.71M shares (16.64%); Vanguard 2.49M shares (4.75%); State Street 2.02M shares (3.86%); Point72 Asset Management 1.97M shares (3.76%); Capital International Investors 1.74M shares (3.33%). 1
Institutional ownership above 84% is high for a small-cap of this market cap — it reflects HNI's status as a Russell 2000 constituent (iShares Russell 2000 ETF holds 1.20M shares / 2.30%) and iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (3.19M shares / 6.09%). 1 The heavy institutional concentration means that any index rebalancing or ETF outflow during a risk-off period can amplify selling pressure.
Insider transactions net: –0.17% (net selling). See Risk #5 above for the specific trades. 1
Upcoming catalysts
| Catalyst | Expected timing |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 earnings | Thursday, July 23, 2026 (BMO) |
| Q2 FY2026 EPS consensus | $1.04 (range not disclosed); Revenue ~$1.48B |
| Q3 FY2026 EPS consensus | $1.31; Revenue ~$1.61B |
| Next quarterly dividend (ex-div) | Expected late August 2026 ($0.35/share) |
| Plant consolidation synergy updates | Ongoing (announced Jan 8, 2026) |
| Allsteel product cadence | Levra seating in market as of Jun 8, 2026 |
July 23 is the critical data point. Q2 FY2026 is the second full quarter with Steelcase on the books. If EPS prints above $1.04 with margin expansion commentary, it confirms the earnings recovery trajectory and removes the biggest uncertainty hanging over the forward P/E thesis. If EPS comes in below ~$0.85 with integration costs running higher-than-guided, the bear case — that $4.02 FY2026 EPS is unreachable — gains traction.
The current-quarter revenue consensus of $1.48B implies Q2 revenue will be slightly higher than Q1's $1.35B, despite no Q2 seasonality tailwind in the Residential Building Products segment. That is consistent with a full quarter of Steelcase contribution but would require Steelcase's second quarter to outperform HNI's legacy Q2 seasonality pattern.
Pass/fail summary
HNI passes all four mechanical screen filters on data through April 4, 2026 — and it is the only name among eight screened this week to do so. The 41.31% TTM growth is real and dual-source confirmed, but it is 100% acquisition-driven. The PEG of 0.40 is triple-source confirmed and the most compelling number in the scorecard. The operating cash flow of $91.9M is positive and passes the filter cleanly.
What makes HNI worth further research: the forward P/E of ~8x against a projected 17–20% EPS CAGR is unusual even in small-cap land; the analyst consensus implies ~98% upside from a two-firm average target of $69; and Q2 FY2026 earnings on July 23 is a clean binary event where the Steelcase integration either confirms the recovery narrative or it does not.
What requires careful attention before acting: the Altman Z-Score of 1.63 sits in financial distress territory; the dividend payout ratio of 121.80% is funded by cash, not earnings; FCF of $7.8M TTM renders any FCF-based valuation useless until normalization; the entire growth thesis is acquisition-driven with no demonstrated organic acceleration; and not one insider has bought a single share on the open market during the 35% decline from the 52-week high.
This is a deep-value, high-risk, acquisition-recovery play. The screen found a real anomaly. Whether that anomaly is an opportunity or a trap depends entirely on whether HNI's integration delivers the earnings it has promised on paper.
For informational purposes only; not investment advice. All data from publicly available sources as of June 18, 2026. Pass #28 of the daily US small-cap screen (market cap < $10B, TTM revenue growth > 30%, PEG < 1, positive operating cash flow). Previously featured: EE, CMBT, KNSA, GRND, BWAY, BKV, AG, VIST, AUB, CARE, BLLN, ATAT, ABX, PLMR, GPOR, HALO, DLO, TREE, MXL, PAY, KVYO, DAVE, ASIC, FIGR, ZETA, FLYW, ANIP, GCT.
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