Iran Polymarket: afternoon key levels
As of ~14:00 ET, June 12, 2026
Iran deal odds crater as Trump and Tehran trade public accusations
Iran FM Baghaei's "no final conclusion" statement and Trump's furious Truth Social response sent ceasefire Jun 30 down −15.50pp to 61.5%, peace deal Jun 15 to 9.85%. BTC at $63,366; 12th straight Extreme Fear day.
Afternoon update — covers ~09:51 ET → 14:00 ET, June 12, 2026 (the delta since this morning's edition)
The "weekend signing" narrative that drove this morning's Polymarket highs started unraveling by mid-morning. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei publicly stated Friday that "no final conclusion has been reached" and called all deal reports "speculative." 1 Iranian state media (IRNA and Mehr News) then leaked a 14-point draft that contradicts US positions on three fronts: Iran makes no nuclear weapons commitments, will not cede Strait of Hormuz control, and will retain uranium enrichment rights during any 60-day negotiating period — plus a demand for $24 billion in frozen assets released plus war-damage compensation. 2
Around 13:30 ET, Trump responded on Truth Social:
"The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING!"— President Trump, Truth Social, ~13:30 ET June 12 2
Polymarket moved before the Truth Social post — the ceasefire and peace deal markets were already selling off on the Baghaei statement. The Trump post confirmed the rift is on the record and public. CBS sources still say an MOU is likely "early next week," but Iran's foreign ministry explicitly rejected any talk of a signing date and location as "media speculation." 2 3
Iran term structure: afternoon snapshot
Every tenor is down since this morning. The front-end collapse is steeper than the back-end, producing the clearest term-structure steepening of the war.
| Contract | Morning | Now | Delta | 24h Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire — Jun 12 (resolves tonight midnight ET) | 13.80% | 4.75% | −9.05pp | $2.06M |
| Ceasefire — Jun 13 | 21.0% | 7.5% | −13.50pp | — |
| Ceasefire — Jun 14 | 31.5% | 13.5% | −18.00pp | — |
| Ceasefire — Jun 15 | 41.5% | 21.0% | −20.50pp | — |
| Ceasefire — Jun 30 | 77.0% | 61.5% | −15.50pp | $3.72M (event total) |
| Ceasefire — Jul 31 | 83.0% | 71.5% | −11.50pp | — |
| Peace deal — Jun 15 | 14.45% | 9.85% | −4.60pp | $6.30M |
| Peace deal — Jun 30 | 33.5% | 31.5% | −2.00pp | $2.78M |
| Peace deal — Dec 31 | 74.5% | 75.5% | +1.00pp | $671K |
통계 카드를 불러오는 중…
The structure tells the story: front-end contracts (Jun 12–Jun 15) are cratering on the "no signing this weekend" read, while the December 31 peace deal held at 75.5% (+1.00pp). The market still assigns 3-in-4 odds to a deal by year-end — but the June 15 deadline is now priced as a near-miss at 9.85%. 5
The June 12 ceasefire market resolves tonight at midnight ET. At 4.75%, it is pricing a near-certain NO — unless Trump and Iran issue a joint signing announcement before midnight, which would be a sharp reversal of today's public rift. Combined Iran event 24h volume stands at ~$14.1M, dominating all non-sports Polymarket activity. 4
Hormuz traffic by end-June: now at 15.5% (+9pp on the day), $1.92M in 24h volume — a market that didn't appear in this morning's recap. The probability is essentially pinned to the ceasefire/peace deal collapse: no deal, no Hormuz normalization. 5
Al Jazeera analyst Kimberly Halkett put the US pressure context bluntly: "Trump is under an enormous amount of pressure to reach a deal with Iran... The fact that he has not managed to limit Iran's nuclear programme or reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be a problem for Trump as the November midterm elections are looming." 6
통계 카드를 불러오는 중…
Signal: The June 15 peace deal binary is now the single most-traded market on Polymarket at $6.30M in 24h volume. At 9.85%, it prices a roughly 1-in-10 chance of a deal signed by Sunday. The correlated trade is Brent crude — at ~$86.57 this morning, down ~4% from Thursday. 1 If the public rift widens through the weekend with no MOU, oil likely recovers toward $90+, reversing the war-premium collapse that drove Thursday night's price move.
BTC: 12th consecutive Extreme Fear day, flat on the session
BTC dropped $310 (-0.49%) from the morning checkpoint of $63,676, trading at $63,366 as of ~14:00 ET. 7 The 24h change is still +0.97% — BTC has been effectively flat since last night. BTC dominance holds at 56.32%, a multi-year high; altcoins continue to underperform. Total crypto market cap ~$2.25 trillion (+0.88% 24h). 8
The Fear & Greed Index printed 12 (Extreme Fear) for the 12th consecutive day — extending its own all-time record. The previous record was 10 consecutive Extreme Fear days, set in March 2025. 9
차트를 불러오는 중…
Fear & Greed readings, June 1–12: 12 straight days in Extreme Fear territory (0–24 range). Prior record was 10 consecutive days. Source: Alternative.me 9
BTC ETF Day 19 (June 12) flow data is not yet available — Farside shows dashes across all 12 funds, with the total row at a $0.0 placeholder. Figures typically post after 4 PM ET market close. 10 Day 18 (June 11) confirmed: total −$22.5M, with BlackRock's IBIT posting +$30.3M (its first inflow since May 23, ending a 15-day outflow streak). Whether IBIT extended that inflow to a second day is the number to watch post-close.
Other markets: no meaningful delta since this morning
- Fed: June no-change at 99.35% (+0.05pp), zero-cuts 2026 at 77.05% (+0.50pp). FOMC is in 4 days; blackout period is active. No movement worth trading. 11
- Peru: Fujimori 96.2% (+0.30pp), Sánchez 3.0% (−0.05pp). The "La Toma de Lima" national march is underway in central Lima today — ONPE (Peru's vote-counting authority) still at 98.22%, with the JNE (National Elections Jury) reviewing ~400,000 contested ballots. No visible pricing impact from the march so far. 12
- BOJ: 1.0% hike widely expected June 15–16, with Deputy Governor Himino chairing in Ueda's absence. USD/JPY ~160.25. No new pre-meeting signals. 13
Tonight's binary
The June 12 ceasefire resolves at midnight ET — 10 hours from now. At 4.75%, the market is nearly fully priced for NO. A surprise joint announcement from Washington and Tehran before midnight would be needed to move it. The June 15 peace deal at 9.85% resolves in 72 hours; that's the market the Iran situation is actually being priced through right now, on $6.30M in today's volume.
Cover image: Donald Trump at White House press appearance. 2
참고 출처
- 1NBC News — US shoots down Iranian drones; Tehran says no final decision
- 2CBS News — Iran says no 'final conclusion' yet on deal
- 3BBC News — Trump claims deal near as Tehran says 'nothing' finalised
- 4Polymarket — Iran ceasefire extension markets
- 5Polymarket — US x Iran peace deal markets
- 6Al Jazeera — Iran war live: Trump blasts Tehran over peace deal leaks
- 7CoinGecko — Bitcoin price
- 8CoinGecko — Global market data
- 9Alternative.me — Crypto Fear & Greed Index
- 10Farside Investors — Bitcoin ETF flow table
- 11Polymarket — Fed decision June 2026
- 12Polymarket — Peru presidential election winner
- 13Reuters — BOJ's pivotal moment muddied by Ueda's absence
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