Commodity Price Movement Recap

공개

Weekly recap of price moves in gold, oil, corn, soybeans, copper, with macro triggers and supply-chain context

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 07. 03. 06:42:04

Weekly settlements: Oil loses the war premium

This weekly recap covers the post-June-26 close through the July 2 settlement window. Crude led the move lower as Hormuz flows, Saudi pricing, and bank forecast cuts shifted the oil narrative toward supply normalization; gold bounced on weak payrolls but retained rate and ETF-flow headwinds; corn ended flat after USDA's bullish stocks surprise met weather relief, soybeans lagged, and copper slipped modestly while inventories stayed tight.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 27. 06:29:46

June 26 settlements: Crude breaks below $70

June 26 was a supply-normalization session in crude, with WTI settling below $70 as Ras Tanura loadings restarted and forecast cuts reinforced bearish oil sentiment. Gold bounced on a softer dollar and lower Fed-hike odds, copper stayed supported by tight inventories and Grasberg risk, and grains eased ahead of the June 30 USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 26. 06:27:56

June 25 settlements: Gold reclaims $4,000 on PCE relief, crude bounces as Iran hits cargo ship near Oman

All six tracked commodities settled higher on June 25 — gold +0.82% to $4,041.60 ending a 6-day losing streak after core PCE came in at 3.4% (in-line), WTI +2.95% to $71.92 after an Iran-linked cargo ship attack near Oman confirmed continued Hormuz aggression, copper +2.11% to $6.0740 on a Freeport-McMoRan Grasberg force majeure, and CBOT grains surged on confirmed 200K MT China soybean buying ahead of the June 30 USDA Acreage report.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 25. 06:25:33

June 24 settlements: Gold crashes through $4,000 as Hormuz reopens, oil hits post-war low

Gold GCQ6 (Aug) settled at $4,008.80 (−3.4%), touching $3,959.10 intraday for the first time since November 2025 — the sixth consecutive decline and worst session since June 10. WTI CLQ6 fell 4.58% to $69.86, a post-war low, as the IMO's Hormuz evacuation scheme began operating and Sparta Commodities flagged a "mini-supply glut" forming in the Arab Gulf. All precious metals sold off in lockstep: silver −7.85%, platinum −5.5%, palladium −6.8%. DXY hit a 52-week high of 101.80. Trump ordered a DOJ gasoline price probe. Soybeans (+1.61%) were the session's only winner.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 24. 06:27:59

June 23 settlements: Gold breaks $4,200, copper crashes 3.8% as DXY hits 13-month high

Gold GCQ6 (Aug) broke decisively through the $4,200 support that held on June 22, settling at $4,149.40 (−1.42%), as DXY hit a new 13-month high of 101.37 and CME FedWatch December hike probability surged to 88% following Warsh's hawkish debut. Copper HGN6 crashed 3.80% to $6.1275/lb — the worst single-session move in the complex. WTI CLQ6 fell 1.17% to $73.21 as Iranian VLCC transits resumed through Hormuz's dual-corridor regime while OFAC GL X continues to funnel crude toward Chinese buyers. CBOT grains split: soybeans held fractionally positive (+0.13%) on meal strength while corn slipped 0.43% for a third straight down close. Secretary Rubio arrived in Abu Dhabi to begin his GCC tour, as Iran and Oman launched formal Hormuz governance talks in Muscat.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 23. 06:26:18

June 22 settlements: Iran framework deal sends WTI below $74, gold snaps four-day slide at $4,209

The US-Iran framework deal formalized Sunday at Switzerland's Bürgenstock resort — including OFAC General License X authorizing Iranian crude exports through August 21 — drove Brent's largest single-session drop since the Iran war began (−3.31% to $77.90) and sent WTI CLQ6 (now primary after CLN6's July expiry) to $74.08. Gold GCQ6 snapped a four-day losing streak at $4,209.30 as $4,200 held, though macro headwinds (DXY at 52-week high 101.08, 10Y yields +5.6 bps to 4.516%, BofA forecasting three Fed hikes) kept the technical picture bearish. CBOT grains reopened after Juneteenth with corn ZCN6 −1.44% and soybeans ZSN6 −0.58% on stable USDA crop ratings and soft export inspections. Copper HGN6 edged +0.51% as Cobre Panama cleared its environmental audit.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 20. 06:24:51

June 19 settlements: Gold cracks $4,200 EMA, oil rebounds on Vance's cancelled Iran trip, CBOT dark for Juneteenth

Gold GCQ6 −1.30% to $4,172.90 breaking 200-day EMA; Brent +1.65% to $80.57 / WTI +1.17% $77.54 on Vance-Geneva cancellation; CBOT closed Juneteenth; China 504K MT soybean buying paused.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 19. 06:25:46

June 18 settlements: oil bounces on Versailles, gold sinks on Warsh

COMEX Gold GCQ6 fell to $4,227.90 (−1.14%) in its second consecutive post-FOMC loss as the Dollar Index hit a yearly high of 100.82 and CME FedWatch repriced September rate-hike odds to ~67%. WTI CLN6 rebounded $1.03 to $76.64 after the Islamabad MOU was signed at Versailles and Saudi supertankers carrying ~6M barrels made the first Hormuz transit since February, but JMIC war-risk ratings stayed at SUBSTANTIAL. China ended its 127-day soybean zero-buy streak with 624,000 MT of flash sales over two days.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 18. 06:28:06

Warsh snap: gold loses $77 as dot plot shifts hawkish

Gold −1.78% to $4,276 as Warsh's first dot plot (9/18 hawk) snaps 4-day rally; WTI $75.61; Corn +1.75%; USDA 372K MT soybean flash sale — likely China

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 17. 06:34:57

Oil breaks $77, gold holds — Warsh opens Day 1

WTI −5.2% to $76.56; Brent below $80; gold holds; Warsh opens FOMC Day 1

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 16. 06:25:40

Oil hits a 3-month low as gold rallies — the Iran deal's split verdict

Iran's MoU signed Sunday, but Hormuz stayed shut Monday: WTI CLN6 tumbled to a 3-month low (~$80.75, −4.2%), while gold surged +2.66% to $4,351.60 as cheaper oil repriced the Fed's rate-hike path. Corn and soybeans edged up on short covering. FOMC Day 1 begins June 16 — Warsh's first meeting — with a 60-day negotiation window and Lebanon-Israel fault lines the key unresolved risks.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026. 06. 13. 06:23:47

June 12, 2026 final settlements: gold +3% and oil −4% tell the same Iran story from opposite ends

Oil gave back the Kharg Island premium as Pakistan's PM confirmed a "final agreed text" on the U.S.-Iran MoU — WTI CLN6 settled at $84.29 (−3.92%), Brent at $86.80 (−3.96%), both at multi-month lows. Gold rose simultaneously (+3.03% to $4,238.80) because Iran's FM immediately claimed "our sword will always hang over the Strait of Hormuz," keeping the geopolitical risk premium live. Copper gained +3.17% on risk-on flows; corn and soybeans were essentially flat after the WASDE non-event. FOMC opens in six days with Warsh's first meeting; markets price a hold.

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