June 15, 2026 — Three-city screening results
Hard filter: ADR × 60% occ > LTR × 1.35. P&L net at 60% occ after Airbnb fee, rent, utilities, cleaning, supplies, insurance, and permit.
STR Arbitrage Weekly: Green Bay, Lubbock & Shreveport (June 15, 2026)
Green Bay's NFL machine posts the channel's strongest-ever 2.67× spread (+$1,447/mo net). Lubbock passes the filter with a Texas felony wire attached. Shreveport is the steady $290/mo entry.
NFL-driven demand in Green Bay produces the strongest spread this channel has measured since launch — $4,230 gross at 60% occupancy against a $1,175 rent. Lubbock passes the hard filter convincingly but carries a criminal-law wire that disqualifies operators who skip one step. Shreveport is the steadiest entry in the set: thin margins, no drama.
Regulation weather: June 8–15, 2026
Glendale, WI — sub-7-day bookings banned (TIGHTENING). Glendale City Council voted on June 9 to prohibit short-term rental bookings shorter than seven days. 1 The trigger: a shooting that injured a 22-year-old at an STR on Riverview Drive — a property also linked to a drowning two years prior and repeated police calls. Glendale is a Milwaukee suburb and is not the same city as this week's featured Green Bay market, but the proximity matters: Wisconsin municipalities are actively watching safety incidents at rental properties and moving to minimum-stay requirements when incidents occur. Green Bay's new rules (adopted March 2026) took a different path — permit-based rather than stay-length-based — but this is the context.
Blue River, CO — new and lapsed STR license applications frozen through December 31 (TIGHTENING). The Blue River Board of Trustees approved an emergency ordinance on June 3 halting all new and lapsed STR license applications and renewals through year-end. 1 The town is rewriting its regulations entirely. Valid 2026 license holders can continue operating. This is a small mountain resort community, not a major metro, but it demonstrates the pattern: when regulation rewrites begin, new-license windows close first.
Chicago, IL — precinct-level STR geographic ban under renewal review (WATCH). Chicago's City Council Committee on License and Consumer Protection met June 9 to take up the renewal of the city's Restricted Residential Zone mechanism, which allows individual precincts to block new STR licenses via voter petition. 2 The 20th Ward, in Woodlawn near the Obama Presidential Center scheduled to open June 19, saw STR licenses rise 46% while citywide licenses fell 38%. As Rental Scale-Up analyst Uvika Wahi observed: "For property managers operating in Chicago, regulatory risk isn't just a citywide issue. It varies block by block." 2 Chicago is not a target market here, but operators in any city with precinct-level or ward-level frameworks should watch this model.
Madison, AL — 190-unit STR permit cap hearing on June 22 (WATCH). Madison currently has no STR legal framework at all; an estimated 60–150 active STRs operate without any ordinance. 3 The proposed ordinance would impose a 190-unit citywide cap on a first-come, first-served basis, restrict STRs to certain zones with HOA veto authority, and trigger a six-month permit suspension for three substantiated complaints in twelve months. Public hearing June 22 — no decision yet.
Indiana HEA 1210 and Idaho HB 583 — both confirmed July 1 (LOOSENING). No legal challenges to either state preemption law emerged this week. 4 Indiana HEA 1210 (signed March 12, effective July 1) prohibits municipalities from capping STR quantities while preserving their authority on safety, registration, and inspections. Idaho HB 583 (signed March 16, effective July 1) goes further — it classifies STRs as residential, banning all local permits, fees, registration requirements, owner-occupancy rules, and day caps outright. 5 One important caveat from Proper Insurance's Nick Massey: "The moment a host takes paying guests, they are operating a commercial activity — and a standard homeowners, landlord, and condo policy still excludes that, regardless of what state law says." 5 Get STR-specific commercial insurance regardless of what Idaho's classification says.
Bakersfield, CA — second reading not yet scheduled (HOLD). Bakersfield's first-ever STR ordinance completed first reading May 27; no confirmed second reading date has emerged. 4 Do not start a new STR there until permits are open.
Birmingham, AL — still no vote as of June 15 (WAIT). The near-total STR ban in single-family zones — delayed from its March 13 vote — has not moved in the June 2026 council calendar. 6 Birmingham remains WAIT until a vote resolves the uncertainty.
This week's 3 city picks
All three cities cleared the hard filters: population 100k–800k; regulation GREEN or YELLOW; ADR × 60% occupancy exceeds LTR × 1.35; no repeat from prior issues. P&L tables use 60% occupancy (18 nights out of 30), the current Airbnb 15.5% single host fee, and a standard cost stack of $80/cleaning turn × 6 turns per month.
統計カードを読み込んでいます…
City 1: Green Bay, WI 🟢 GREEN
Safe to start in the next 30 days? YES — with a 6-month reserve and a clear-eyed view of off-season.
Green Bay has the strongest spread ratio of any city this channel has screened: 2.67× STR revenue relative to the LTR floor. The NFL machine behind it is structural. Lambeau Field hosts 8 home regular-season games per season, plus preseason, playoff, and college events — each one a demand spike for a market with only 281 active listings. The regulation environment is as clean as a Wisconsin market gets, with new rules enacted unanimously in March 2026 that landed lighter than earlier proposals. The problem is standing in front of you clearly: September through November generates roughly $7,500–$9,000 in monthly revenue on a 2BR; February generates $788. The same arithmetic that creates the annual average also creates a survival test in winter. Know this going in.
Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ~106,000 | — |
| 2BR median LTR rent | $1,175/mo | Zillow 7 |
| 2BR ADR | $235/night | Rabbu April 2026 [[cite:8 |
| 2BR occupancy (actual, trailing) | 29% | Rabbu [[cite:8 |
| Active listings (all sizes) | 281 | Rabbu April 2026 [[cite:8 |
| Supply growth (YoY) | +126% | Rabbu [[cite:8 |
| ROI score | 78/100 — Standout Opportunity | Rabbu [[cite:8 |
| Spread ratio (ADR×60%×30 ÷ LTR×1.35) | 2.67× | Calculated |
| Regulation | 🟢 GREEN — permit required, no density cap | Green Bay Press-Gazette 8 |
| Verdict | YES (6-month reserve required) | — |
The Rabbu Market Analysis Team describes Green Bay as a "strong opportunity for investors who understand and plan around its pronounced seasonality," calling the market's "above-average revenue-to-price ratio the headline story." [cite:8|Rabbu: Green Bay, WI Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/green-bay-wi]] The seasonality data bears that out precisely: September peak revenue at $9,280 per month — nearly 12× the February low of $788 — driven by early-season Packers games and fall events. [cite:8|Rabbu: Green Bay, WI Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/green-bay-wi]]
Top 2 submarkets
- Near Lambeau Field (neighborhoods along Oneida St / Ridge Rd) — this is the core demand zone. Football weekends drive rate compression: nearby 2BR units at $400–$600+/night on game days. Even non-game occupancy benefits from Lambeau tour visitors, the adjacent Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame, and the overall tourist infrastructure around the stadium. Lower off-season rates here are offset by the premium event window.
- Downtown Green Bay / Titletown District — the redevelopment district directly adjacent to Lambeau has added a hotel, restaurants, and year-round entertainment (ice skating, parks, sports fields). Units here pull from both the NFL visitor base and the growing convention/healthcare visitor segment. Slightly lower peak ADR than stadium-adjacent but better off-season occupancy floor.
Full 2BR unit economics at 60% occupancy
| Line item | Monthly | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Gross STR revenue | +$4,230 | $235 ADR × 30 days × 60% occ [[cite:8 |
| Airbnb fee (15.5%) | −$655 | Single host fee, effective since Oct 2025 |
| Net STR revenue | +$3,575 | |
| Rent (2BR LTR median) | −$1,175 | Zillow 7 |
| Utilities | −$250 | Heating, electric, internet — WI winters push this higher |
| Cleaning | −$480 | $80/turn × 6 turns/mo (avg 3-night stay) |
| Supplies / maintenance | −$106 | 2.5% of gross revenue |
| STR insurance rider | −$100 | Commercial STR policy (required; homeowners policy does not cover) |
| Permit / license | −$17 | Est. $200/yr ÷ 12 (whole-home non-owner-occupied requires permit) |
| Total monthly costs | −$2,128 | |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$1,447 | At 60% occupancy |
Verification: $235 × 30 × 0.60 = $4,230. After 15.5% fee: $4,230 × 0.845 = $3,575. Cost stack: $1,175 + $250 + $480 + $106 + $100 + $17 = $2,128. Net: $3,575 − $2,128 = $1,447.
Seasonal reality check — the numbers the 60% average hides:
| Period | Est. 2BR monthly gross | Cash flow vs. cost stack |
|---|---|---|
| Sept–Oct (NFL peak) | ~$7,500–$9,280 | +$4,200 to +$5,700 |
| Nov–Dec | ~$3,000–$5,900 | +$400 to +$2,800 |
| Jan–Mar (trough) | ~$788–$1,500 | −$1,500 to −$500 |
| Apr–Aug (shoulder) | ~$1,400–$3,200 | −$600 to +$600 |
The model's 60% annual average is a mathematically valid figure. But it masks a $1,500/month cash burn in February, March, and January when actual trailing occupancy falls to effectively zero for some 2BR listings. Operators who spend their September surplus rather than reserving it will be underwater by February.
チャートを読み込んでいます…
Three confirmed data points from Rabbu (April 2026): [cite:8|Rabbu: Green Bay, WI Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/green-bay-wi]] February trough ($788), September NFL peak ($9,280), December second peak ($5,916). The 12× gap between February and September is the single most important number in this market's operating model.
Regulation — 🟢 GREEN
Green Bay City Council unanimously approved new STR regulations on March 3–4, 2026. 8 The final rules were notably less restrictive than proposals that circulated in 2025. Key provisions: owner-occupied room rentals (renting out a room while the owner is present) do not require a permit; whole-home non-owner-occupied rentals — the typical arbitrage configuration — require a permit. No density cap applies. No primary-residence requirement for whole-home rentals.
Permit steps: (1) Verify current permit application requirements at greenbaywi.gov. (2) Apply for a whole-home non-owner-occupied STR permit. (3) Confirm no HOA prohibition on your target building. (4) Designate a 24/7 local contact per standard Wisconsin municipal requirements. Wisconsin has no state preemption law, so the city ordinance is the governing document — read it directly at greenbaywi.gov rather than relying on third-party summaries.
Risk callouts
- Seasonality is extreme: 12× peak-to-trough. This is the defining operating risk, not a footnote. The February trough of $788 gross revenue against a $1,175 rent means the unit runs negative in winter even before utilities, cleaning, and insurance. You need the NFL surplus saved, not spent.
- Supply +126% YoY. Green Bay's STR count more than doubled in one year. [cite:8|Rabbu: Green Bay, WI Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/green-bay-wi]] Competing for off-peak bookings will get harder as more operators chase the same NFL premium.
- 60% occupancy requires executing at ~2× market rate. Trailing 2BR actual occupancy is 29%. Achieving 60% requires dynamic pricing software, professional photography, stadium-proximity positioning, and active calendar management. Without those inputs, expect a result closer to 29% — which produces a deeply negative P&L.
- Glendale, WI precedent (June 9). A Milwaukee suburb banning sub-7-day stays after a safety incident is not Green Bay, but it signals how quickly Wisconsin municipalities move when incidents occur. Keep your property well-managed and your guest screening tight.
- No pending cap legislation identified as of June 15, 2026. The March 2026 rules appear stable for the near term.
Furnished Finder / travel nurse signal
Green Bay has 161 furnished rental listings and 92 currently available on travel nurse housing platforms. 9 Bellin Health and HSHS (Hospital Sisters Health System) are the major healthcare employers. A furnished 2BR at $2,200–$2,600/month on a 30-day MTR contract covers rent plus utilities and eliminates per-night cleaning overhead entirely — a viable winter hedge when STR occupancy falls below 45%. The NFL off-season runs roughly February through July; flipping to 30-day MTR contracts during those months is worth modeling as a base case, not a contingency.
City 2: Lubbock, TX 🟢 GREEN
Safe to start in the next 30 days? YES — only if you have landlord consent in writing before you sign anything.
Lubbock's unit economics pass the filter cleanly: $2,916 gross at 60% occupancy against $975/month LTR, a 2.22× spread ratio. The city runs a permit-based GREEN framework with no density cap. What stops this from being a straightforward YES is Texas Senate Bill 1333 (SB1333), which classifies unauthorized rental arbitrage — subletting a leased property as an STR without explicit landlord consent — as a first-degree felony. 10 This is not an obscure statute. One Reddit landlord in a recent r/airbnb_hosts post described catching multiple tenants attempting unauthorized arbitrage: "Now in Texas, these arbitrage people can be charged for first degree felony due to SB1333." 10 Get written consent from your landlord — a lease addendum explicitly authorizing short-term subletting — before you execute any arbitrage strategy in Lubbock or any other Texas city. Without it, you are committing a felony, not running a business.
Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ~261,000 | — |
| 2BR median LTR rent | $975/mo | Zillow 11 |
| 2BR ADR | $162/night | Rabbu April 2026 [[cite:13 |
| 2BR occupancy (actual, trailing) | 28% | Rabbu [[cite:13 |
| Active listings | 503 | Rabbu April 2026 [[cite:13 |
| Supply growth (YoY) | +164% | Rabbu [[cite:13 |
| ROI score | 52/100 — Competitive Opportunity | Rabbu [[cite:13 |
| Spread ratio (ADR×60%×30 ÷ LTR×1.35) | 2.22× | Calculated |
| Regulation | 🟢 GREEN — permit required, no density cap | City of Lubbock 12 |
| Verdict | YES (written landlord consent required first) | — |
Rabbu describes Lubbock as representing "a moderate opportunity for STR investors who are willing to be strategic about property size and pricing," noting that investors targeting larger properties "could capture outsized returns if they manage costs carefully." [cite:13|Rabbu: Lubbock, TX Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/lubbock-tx]] The 52/100 ROI score is on the lower end of the "Competitive Opportunity" tier — Rabbu is flagging the rapid supply growth and below-average market-level occupancy as offsetting forces against a genuinely strong revenue-to-cost ratio.
Top 2 submarkets
- Near Texas Tech University (Tech Terrace, West End) — Texas Tech University (40,000+ students) generates year-round demand: family weekends, graduation, sporting events, and academic conferences. 2BR units within 1 mile of campus command ADR premiums and sustain occupancy during the academic calendar even when the broader market softens. The August peak ($2,123/month gross per Rabbu) [cite:13|Rabbu: Lubbock, TX Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/lubbock-tx]] aligns with football season kickoff and fall move-in.
- Medical District (around University Medical Center / Covenant Health) — University Medical Center (UMC) and Covenant Health are major regional employers and patient draw centers for West Texas. Travel healthcare workers, patient families, and visiting medical staff are consistent MTR demand. 2BR units in this corridor can sustain 30-day MTR contracts at $1,800–$2,200/month when STR occupancy softens.
Full 2BR unit economics at 60% occupancy
| Line item | Monthly | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Gross STR revenue | +$2,916 | $162 ADR × 30 days × 60% occ [[cite:13 |
| Airbnb fee (15.5%) | −$452 | Single host fee |
| Net STR revenue | +$2,464 | |
| Rent (2BR LTR median) | −$975 | Zillow 11 |
| Utilities | −$200 | Electric, internet; gas lower than WI |
| Cleaning | −$480 | $80/turn × 6 turns/mo |
| Supplies / maintenance | −$73 | 2.5% of gross revenue |
| STR insurance rider | −$100 | |
| Permit / license | −$17 | City of Lubbock STR permit, taxes remitted monthly 12 |
| Total monthly costs | −$1,845 | |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$619 | At 60% occupancy |
Verification: $162 × 30 × 0.60 = $2,916. After 15.5% fee: $2,916 × 0.845 = $2,464. Cost stack: $975 + $200 + $480 + $73 + $100 + $17 = $1,845. Net: $2,464 − $1,845 = $619.
Seasonal range:
| Period | Est. 2BR gross revenue | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| August (peak) | ~$2,123 | [[cite:13 |
| January (trough) | ~$890 | Below breakeven — MTR hedge essential |
| 60% model average | $2,916 | Requires 2× market occupancy execution |
The $619/month net assumes you achieve 60% occupancy. Trailing actual 2BR occupancy is 28%. The Lubbock play requires the same outperformance as every other secondary market in this set — professional listing management, dynamic pricing, and a well-positioned submarket. At market-average occupancy, the unit runs at a loss.
Regulation — 🟢 GREEN
Lubbock's STR ordinance has been in effect since January 2020. 12 Key provisions: a valid STR permit is required for any rental exceeding 30 days per year; residential properties may be rented up to 30 nights per year without a permit (beyond 30 days, the permit is mandatory); Hotel Occupancy Tax is collected and remitted monthly through the platform. No density cap or primary-residence requirement has been identified.
Permit steps: (1) Obtain signed lease addendum from landlord explicitly authorizing short-term subletting (non-negotiable under Texas SB1333). (2) Apply for STR permit at mylubbock.us/384. (3) Register for Hotel Occupancy Tax remittance — platforms collect this automatically for most Airbnb/VRBO bookings. (4) Confirm no HOA restrictions.
Risk callouts
- ⚠️ Texas SB1333 — felony risk without written landlord consent. Unauthorized rental arbitrage is a first-degree felony in Texas. No exceptions. The law applies regardless of whether you have an STR permit from the city. Get written landlord authorization in your lease before doing anything else. 10
- Supply +164% YoY. Lubbock has the fastest supply growth of the three cities this week. [cite:13|Rabbu: Lubbock, TX Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/lubbock-tx]] 503 active listings at April 2026 means the market is not undiscovered. Competition for available bookings is intensifying rapidly.
- January trough. Gross revenue drops to ~$890 in January against a fixed cost base of ~$1,845. Budget for 2–3 months of trough-period cash burn, or pre-arrange an MTR contract to cover the winter.
- 60% requires 2.1× market execution. Actual trailing occupancy is 28%. The $619 model profit disappears entirely if you land at 40% instead — do not treat 60% as a baseline.
- No pending local legislative threats identified as of June 15, 2026.
Furnished Finder / travel nurse signal
Lubbock has 205 furnished rental listings available on travel nurse housing platforms. 9 University Medical Center and Covenant Medical Center (a 573-bed regional hospital) are the primary healthcare employers. The Medical District 2BR leased at $975 and rented on a 30-day MTR contract at $1,900–$2,200 provides a winter floor when STR occupancy softens below 45%.
City 3: Shreveport, LA 🟢 GREEN
Safe to start in the next 30 days? YES — with realistic expectations about margin ceiling.
Shreveport is the simplest play in this week's set: GREEN regulation since August 2021, lowest cost basis of the three cities ($925/month rent), no criminal law complications, no extreme seasonality. The trade-off is the thinnest model margin at $290/month net. At 60% occupancy, that is enough to justify entry for operators who can tolerate slim margins in exchange for a low-drama, low-capital operating environment. It is not a city that produces outsized returns — it is a city that works reliably.
The Rabbu Market Analysis Team's own assessment is direct: "Shreveport's strongest asset is its above-average revenue-to-price ratio, which compensates for occupancy that trails the state average by a few points." [cite:16|Rabbu: Shreveport, LA Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/shreveport-la]] The same team flags that rapid supply growth and below-average supply/demand balance "warrant careful attention to property differentiation." [cite:16|Rabbu: Shreveport, LA Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/shreveport-la]] Both observations are accurate.
Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ~184,000 | — |
| 2BR median LTR rent | $925/mo | Zillow 13 |
| 2BR ADR | $135/night | Rabbu April 2026 [[cite:16 |
| 2BR occupancy (actual, trailing) | 27% | Rabbu [[cite:16 |
| Active listings | 173 | Rabbu April 2026 [[cite:16 |
| Supply growth (YoY) | +155% | Rabbu [[cite:16 |
| ROI score | 55/100 — Attractive Opportunity | Rabbu [[cite:16 |
| Spread ratio (ADR×60%×30 ÷ LTR×1.35) | 1.94× | Calculated |
| Regulation | 🟢 GREEN — Type B permit required, no density cap | Shreveport-Caddo MPC 14 |
| Verdict | YES (thin margins; active management required) | — |
Top 2 submarkets
- Pierremont / South Highlands — the most established residential neighborhoods on Shreveport's south side, with the Red River corridor and casino entertainment district accessible within 10–15 minutes. Consistent leisure and business traveler demand. ADR in this corridor runs above the $135 city average, reflecting the higher-quality housing stock.
- Downtown / Bossier City crossover — the casino/entertainment zone straddling Shreveport and adjacent Bossier City draws leisure visitors year-round. Casino-adjacent 2BR units benefit from a steady base of gaming travelers and Red River District visitors. Note: Bossier City is a separate jurisdiction with its own ordinance — confirm STR rules at bossiercity.org if targeting that side of the river.
Full 2BR unit economics at 60% occupancy
| Line item | Monthly | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Gross STR revenue | +$2,430 | $135 ADR × 30 days × 60% occ [[cite:16 |
| Airbnb fee (15.5%) | −$377 | Single host fee |
| Net STR revenue | +$2,053 | |
| Rent (2BR LTR median) | −$925 | Zillow 13 |
| Utilities | −$180 | Lower than WI; LA climate reduces heating costs |
| Cleaning | −$480 | $80/turn × 6 turns/mo |
| Supplies / maintenance | −$61 | 2.5% of gross revenue |
| STR insurance rider | −$100 | |
| Permit / license | −$17 | Type B STR permit (2-year renewable), est. cost ÷ 12 14 |
| Total monthly costs | −$1,763 | |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$290 | At 60% occupancy |
Verification: $135 × 30 × 0.60 = $2,430. After 15.5% fee: $2,430 × 0.845 = $2,053. Cost stack: $925 + $180 + $480 + $61 + $100 + $17 = $1,763. Net: $2,053 − $1,763 = $290.
The $290/month net is the smallest in this week's set. At 55% occupancy (not 60%), the model produces −$61/month — effectively breakeven. This is a market where cleaning cost efficiency matters more than in Green Bay or Lubbock: shorten average stays, increase turns, and the cost stack grows; lengthen stays to 4+ nights average, and cleaning drops to 4–5 turns/month, which adds $80–$160 back to net monthly. If you can negotiate $850/month rent rather than the $925 median, the margin expands to $365/month.
Seasonal range:
| Period | Est. 2BR gross revenue | Cash flow direction |
|---|---|---|
| November (peak) | ~$2,017 [[cite:16 | Rabbu: Shreveport, LA Airbnb Market Data [2026] |
| January (trough) | ~$1,085 [[cite:16 | Rabbu: Shreveport, LA Airbnb Market Data [2026] |
| 60% model | $2,430 | Positive at model assumption |
The seasonality here is mild by comparison to Green Bay — a 1.86× peak-to-trough vs. 12×. The trough is still below breakeven, so reserve planning still applies, but the valley is shallower and the seasonal pattern is more predictable around casino and Red River events rather than a single sport.
Regulation — 🟢 GREEN
Shreveport's STR ordinance was approved by City Council in July 2021 and took effect in August 2021. 14 Type A permits apply to partial-dwelling rentals (renting a room while the owner is present); Type B permits apply to entire-dwelling rentals — the relevant permit type for arbitrage operators. Permits expire after two years and are renewable. No density cap or primary-residence requirement has been identified.
Permit steps: (1) Apply for a Type B STR permit at shreveportcaddompc.com. (2) Submit renewal before the two-year expiration date. (3) Confirm zoning compliance for your target address. (4) Designate an emergency contact as required by permit conditions.
Risk callouts
- $290/month net is a thin margin. A one-bad-month scenario (unexpected vacancy, cleaning cost overrun, platform dispute) eliminates 3–4 months of margin in one shot. This market is not forgiving of sloppy operations. Treat it as a minimum-effort business, not a set-and-forget one.
- Trailing actual occupancy is 27%. The model's 60% requires more than 2× market-average execution — identical qualification applies here as in Green Bay and Lubbock.
- Supply +155% YoY. 173 active listings have grown rapidly in a market where demand has not matched supply growth. [cite:16|Rabbu: Shreveport, LA Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/shreveport-la]] The ADR ceiling is limited — at $135, there is no premium pricing headroom unless you can differentiate materially on amenities or location.
- No identified pending legislative threats as of June 15, 2026. Louisiana has not pursued state preemption legislation comparable to Indiana or Idaho.
- Bossier City jurisdiction overlap. If your target property is on the Bossier City side of the metro, verify Bossier City's own STR ordinance separately — it is a distinct municipality.
Furnished Finder / travel nurse signal
Shreveport has 172 furnished rental listings, with 91 currently available. 9 Furnished Finder listings in the market range from $3,100 to $3,500/month for furnished 2BRs — meaningfully above the STR model's implied $2,053 net revenue. Ochsner LSU Health, Willis-Knighton Health, and Christus Shreveport-Bossier Health System are the major hospital employers. A 30-day MTR contract at $2,200–$2,800/month against a $925 rent base produces a better risk-adjusted return than STR when occupancy softens, and MTR stays fall outside Shreveport's STR ordinance definition. The 91 currently available units suggest this market has supply for the MTR track, but not saturation.
First-90-days playbook: Green Bay, WI
Green Bay is this week's highest-conviction pick — 2.67× spread ratio, a structural NFL demand driver, and a clean permit framework. The 90-day window starts now, ahead of the September Packers season opener.
Weeks 1–2: Submarket selection and lease.
Target a 2BR within a 15-minute drive of Lambeau Field. Neighborhoods along Oneida Street and in the Titletown District have the best demand overlap. Verify the building's HOA documents prohibit neither subletting nor STR operation. Offer the landlord $1,225–$1,300/month — approximately 5–10% above the $1,175 Zillow median — to secure the unit quickly and in exchange for explicit written authorization to sublease for short-term rentals. Get that authorization as a lease addendum, in writing, before signing anything. Wisconsin has no preemption law protecting STR operators at the state level — your lease authorization matters.
Weeks 3–4: Permit and furnishing.
Check greenbaywi.gov for the current whole-home non-owner-occupied STR permit application requirements; submit the application immediately. Budget $7,500–$8,000 to furnish a 2BR at a level appropriate for a $350–$500/night gameday listing: quality beds and linens, functional kitchen, reliable WiFi, and a few Green Bay Packers-themed touches that show up well in photography. Subscribe to PriceLabs or Wheelhouse — dynamic pricing is mandatory in a market where gameday rates are 4–6× shoulder rates. Configure minimum stays of 2 nights for non-gameday windows to reduce cleaning turns and overhead.
Month 2 (August): Pre-season pricing and soft launch.
The Packers' preseason typically begins in August, with a home game drawing stadium-level demand 2–3 weeks before the regular season opener. List the unit in late July with initial bookings targeted at preseason visitors and late-summer tourists. Test your pricing software against comparable listings near Lambeau; adjust your gameday floor if comparable 2BRs in the same radius are already priced above your defaults.
Month 3 (September): NFL season and reserve building.
September is the highest-revenue month in the Rabbu dataset: ~$9,280 in gross revenue for a well-positioned 2BR. [cite:8|Rabbu: Green Bay, WI Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/green-bay-wi]] At two home games in September, each weekend producing $1,400–$1,800 in gameday revenue across Friday–Sunday nights, September alone can cover 4–5 months of rent. Every dollar of September surplus above $1,175 rent should go directly into a reserve account dedicated to the January–March trough. Do not treat September as the baseline — it is the bank deposit, not the operating state.
Also in Month 3: create a Furnished Finder profile for 30-day MTR bookings at $2,400–$2,700/month, targeting Bellin Health and HSHS staff. Activate MTR contracts for any calendar gaps longer than 14 days that you cannot fill with STR guests; this floor prevents the February trough from forcing a cash shortfall.
Capital required: $15,000–$17,500 — two months' rent ($2,350) for security deposit and first month, furnishing ($7,500–$8,000), operating reserve through March ($4,500–$5,500), and permit/setup fees (~$500). This is at the upper end of the $5k–$20k capital range for this channel's target operator; it is achievable but leaves limited room for surprises in the first winter. Operators with less than $12,000 available should target Lubbock or Shreveport first to build capital before entering Green Bay.
This week's verdict table
チャートを読み込んでいます…
All three cities produce positive net cash flow at the 60% occupancy model. Green Bay's advantage is structural (NFL demand), not just arithmetic. [cite:8|Rabbu: Green Bay, WI Airbnb Market Data [2026]|[https://rabbu.com/airbnb-data/green-bay-wi]]
| City | Verdict | Model net/mo | One-line rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay, WI | YES | +$1,447 | Strongest spread (2.67×); NFL structural demand; 12× seasonality requires reserves |
| Lubbock, TX | YES ⚠️ | +$619 | GREEN, no density cap; written landlord consent required under Texas SB1333 felony statute |
| Shreveport, LA | YES | +$290 | Steady, low-drama entry; thin margin requires execution discipline and MTR winter hedge |
| Cleveland, OH | NO | — | 10% density cap effective ~Nov 2026; high compliance burden for new entrants 1 |
| Birmingham, AL | WAIT | — | Near-total single-family zone ban still unresolved; no entry until vote clears 6 |
| Bakersfield, CA | WAIT (STR) | — | Second reading and permit launch still pending; MTR entry viable now 4 |
Cover image: AI-generated illustration.
All P&L figures use a consistent model: ADR × 30 days × 60% occupancy for gross revenue; 15.5% Airbnb single-host fee; $80/turn × 6 turns per month for cleaning; 2.5% of gross for supplies and maintenance. ADR and LTR figures from Rabbu (April 2026) and Zillow (June 13, 2026) respectively. Actual trailing 2BR occupancy in all three markets is 27–29%, well below the 60% model assumption — outperforming the market average by 30+ percentage points is achievable with professional listing management and submarket selection but is not guaranteed. Run your own sensitivity analysis with your target lease rent and realistic occupancy before committing capital.
参考ソース
- 1The Host Report: STR Regulation Updates June 3–9, 2026
- 2Rental Scale-Up: Short-Term Rental Rules: Chicago, Croatia, Florence
- 3Rental Scale-Up: STR Permit Updates: Ireland, Vienna, and Madison
- 4AirROI: Short-Term Rental Ordinance 2026: The Small-City Wave
- 5National Law Review: Idaho Now Classifies Short-Term Rentals as Residential
- 6BirminghamWatch: Bham Council Delays Short-Term Rental Restrictions
- 7Zillow: Average Rental Price in Green Bay, WI
- 8Green Bay Press-Gazette: New Green Bay STR rules explained (March 5, 2026)
- 9travelnursehousing.com: Green Bay WI listings
- 10Reddit r/airbnb_hosts: Texas Airbnb arbitrage folks
- 11Zillow: Average Rental Price in Lubbock, TX
- 12City of Lubbock: Short-Term Rentals
- 13Zillow: Average Rental Price in Shreveport, LA
- 14Shreveport-Caddo MPC: Short-Term Rental permit page
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